Season starts tonight; I'm going to make a bold prediction that San Antonio will beat Portland. Also I figure, given the evenness of the year and all, that San Antonio won't win the championship. Instead, I'll take Dallas for best record in the West, followed by Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix, Utah, Denver, Lakers, and New Orleans in roughly that order. In the East I have Boston (beyond the obvious, I think Rajon Rondo is better than people think) followed by Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Toronto, Washington, Orlando, and Miami. Obviously, a Bulls-Lakers deal for Kobe could change that, though the current asking price of Gordon, Deng, Thomas, and Noah seems clearly too high.
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NBA Predictions!
30 Oct 2007 12:27 pm
Comments (79)
You have Phoenix finishing behind Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston? Or is that where the "roughly in that order" thing is supposed to come in?
Rondo is strong, quick, and can sometimes take advantage of his abnormally large hands (he once had *19* rebounds in a college game), but boy can he not shoot. Admittedly, he might not even have to take very many shots with all three of their big stars on the floor, but it's clearly his main liability. He's also a bad FT shooter.
New Orleans ahead of Golden State? Say it's ain't so! Actually, I think the Warriors will have a better record than the Lakers, too, even if they keep Kobe. If Baron is reasonably healthy (60+ games), they should win 45 or so.
"I think Rajon Rondo is better than people think"
I think this is kinda backwards. The correct statement is:
People are about to think Rondo is much better than he really is.
It's Tony Parker all over again. Decent player in the perfect situation to make the hoi polloi think he's special.
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Unless Rashard stays unhealthy all year, you've got Orlando ranked much too low. They should win their division.
I don't quibble with your West predictions (tho' I don't agree with them) but your East predictions are WAY off . . .
Detroit, Chicago, Boston, NEW JERSEY, Toronto, Cleveland, Orlando.
Miami doesn't have it anymore, and Washington looks like it may implode. Boston has no bench, so even putting them at number three is a stretch, but they should make the playoffs. They need another year.
Cleveland made it by luck last year with a so-so team backing LeBron . . . they don't even have THAT team yet this year, having two important players not show up for play yet due to contract issues, so they're taking two steps back.
Jersey and Toronto, if they can escape serious injury, have dangerous weapons and can really make a move for the conference. Jersey's better than people think.
Orlando's got some guns but needs another year yet.
I'm betting that if Kobe moves (and that's a big IF) it will either be late in the season or next summer.
Chicago wants him, sure, but they also know he's a head case and don't want to gut their roster for a crazy man.
I'm picking Phoenix with the best record in the West. Sure, they've traded away Kurt and multiple, multiple draft picks. Sure, they are aging and thin. But for some reason everyone is discounting them, even though they got jobbed in the playoffs last year with Nash's nose and then the guys coming off the bench (and, yes, I think Stern made the right call, but still it was a freak thing). This year, the karma turns around. After that, in order, Dallas, Houston, Utah, SA.
In the east, I like Chicago. Either their young guys step up a level and make them elite, or they are going to get Kobe. Oh, and what the hell, NJ beats Boston to take the Atlantic division title. Just because Hollinger and Berri and so many others think NJ will finish out of the playoffs. I think Miami will finish in the lottery.
And, come on Petey, you're killing me. Where are the Petey predictions? Denver finishing ahead of Utah or what???
I'm going to amend that. If Baron is uncharacteristically healthy (plays 70+ games), the Warriors will win about 50. If he's about as healthy as he was last year (60-70 games), the Warriors win 45-50. If Baron plays 50-something games, I see them finishing around .500 and maybe squeaking into the playoffs again. If Baron plays fewer than 50 games, they look pretty screwed to me. This is assuming everyone else stays healthy, but it's not assuming anything crazy like Brandon Wright being a real contributor anytime soon or Monta or Biedrins turning into All-Stars right away.
What if Baron has a horrible car accident and must have both his legs amputated. And what if Don Nelson has the technology and can rebuild him better than he was? How many games will the Warriors win in that case?
Allen is 32, Garnett is 31 and Pierce is 30. Allen played 55 games last year, Pierce 47. In the last 6 years, Allen has played more than 60 games twice.
A put on Boston may be a good investment.
"And, come on Petey, you're killing me. Where are the Petey predictions? Denver finishing ahead of Utah or what???"
Yup. I like Denver to finish ahead of Utah. But that's kinda consensus thinking at the moment.
If everyone on the Powder Blues stays healthy, which seems to be the problem at the moment, I don't see why they can't make a run at the ring.
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Predicting the NBA in October is hard. It's all very fuzzy clouds of probability. Things get a lot clearer by December. But in general:
Bullish on the Knicks.
Bearish on the Nets.
Bullish on the Magic.
Bearish on the Raptors.
Bullish on the Celtics.
Bearish on the 'zards.
Bullish on the Heat.
Neutral on Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit.
The West is more obvious, of course.
I think all the people who are suddenly projecting Boston in the finals are nuts. Yeah, the new lineup might suddenly gel into mad chemistry, but that's not the way to bet.
Petey - Assuming the new legs are long enough to make Baron into a silky 7' big man, I'd pick the Warriors for at least the conference finals.
"Note that we all scewed the pooch in last year's prediction thread."
What do you mean "we", Kemosabe? I think my comments there have mostly stood up well.
East: Chicago, Detroit, Boston, New York, New Jersey, Orlando, Toronto, Miami, Cleveland, Washington, Atlanta, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Indiana, Milwaukee
West: San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Utah, Denver, Lakers, Golden State, New Orleans, Seattle, Memphis, Portland, Clippers, Sacramento, Minnesota
But it being an even year, Dallas takes home the prize over the Bulls.
I think my comments there have mostly stood up well.
I'd narrowly pick Dallas over S.A. or Miami
Slightly wrong about Dallas, very wrong about Miami. But hey, if you're happy with that...
Not only is Thomas, Deng, Noah and Gordon too high a price to pay for Kobe, Kobe has indicated that he will use his no-trade clause to block that deal, since he feels it will leave Chicago too weak for them to contend. This highlights the weird position LA is in, where they seem to want desperately to trade Kobe, but where Kobe's no-trade clause seems to prevent them from trading him for what they feel is fair value.
Meanwhile, I'm still depressed we didn't trade for Zach Randolph.
"But hey, if you're happy with that..."
I named three teams as title contenders. One of them won the title. Another won best regular season record. The third I identified elsewhere in the thread as having severe fragility problems.
Yup. I'm happy with that.
And I noted that your Chicago prediction was fool's gold...
You picked three title contenders (Miami, SA, and Dallas), two of which lost in the first round! That's nothing to be happy about.
I'll bite:
West: San Antonio, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, Houston, Utah, Golden State, New Orleans.
East: Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Cleveland, Miami, New York, Washington.
Al Thorton will get serious consideration for rookie of the year, though it will probably go to Durant. Bowen wins defensive player of the year. Grizzlies and Clippers are better than expected though still miss the play-offs. Carmelo wins MVP, and Houston still loses in the first round.
At least a couple of those should come true.
If Yao plays 60 games or more, he gets the MVP.
"Al Thorton will get serious consideration for rookie of the year"
Ain't it the truth. I don't understand why everyone is sleeping on him.
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And while I know you're a Spurs fan, you really think they're going to have the #1 seed? I can see them winning another title, but I have trouble seeing them get the #1 seed.
This year's Nuggets seem a lot like last year's Heat to me.
If they're healthy, they're genuine title contenders. But there are plenty of reasons to question whether they'll be healthy.
As of the moment, there are question marks about Iverson, Camby, K-Mart, Nene, and Atkins. And, of course, there are questions about J.R. Smith's mental health...
BTW, this was actually last year's NBA predictions thread. Matthew did quite well predicting the playoff teams, only missing on Toronto and GS. He also said that SA was the best team in the league.
Freddie brings up a really interesting point. Because Kobe can nix any trade deal, and will, having everything to gain and little to lose, getting fair value for him becomes even harder for the Lakers. This will rachet up the tension, and put the focus on how he plays. If he shows signs of losing interest, or his health is threatened, the Lakers will likely implode. Already he's bigger in the media than the team he plays for; now he's threatening to pull the spotlight from the league itself. He's a great player, but this is not great news for basketball fans.
But Kobe has a history of rising to the challenge; if he stays healthy, he may put on quite a show.
The Lakers have the same problem trading Kobe as they did with Shaq. What I don't understand is why serious draft picks are not a required part of the deal. Isn't that the natural solution? You're giving up serious talent now, for the hope of the future. Not to mention the problem whereby Kobe obviously wants to go to a team that will be better. So are they offering picks as well or instead of all those guys? And if not, where does the holdup come from, the Lakers or the Bulls? Given the way the Lakers have been run lately, I wouldn't be suprised if its them..
beyond the obvious, I think Rajon Rondo is better than people think
If Rajon is better than 'people think', he's All-NBA 3rd team material - Rondo went at least 3 rounds too early in every fantasy draft I did this year, only one of which is dominated by C's fans.
As for predictions, mine mostly align with Petey's, aside from the Knicks. A starting 5 of Marbury, Crawford, Q-Rich, Z-Bo and Fat Eddy is starting 5 of the same guy in different sized bodies, essentially.
Magic win their division. Cavs and Wiz both underperform. Hornets make playoffs, Nuggets and Lakers don't.
I note, BTW, that in last years prediction thread, Pooh had SA over Cleveland in the Finals. So that was good.
I'm a little p*ssed that I failed to understand that the season starts tonight, rather than tomorrow when the Nets play their first game. I was going to find a fantasy league and do a draft tonight and still get it in before the season starts. Oh well.
And Petey's revisionist history is awesome. In the very first post on that thread he picks the Heat to win the East, but that SA will compete for a ring. Then ogged says the Heat are too old, but so is SA. So they both make a critical error in their predictions, while getting one thing right and both make the additional mistake of picking Dallas.
Seems like a pretty similar record to me... and nothing to be too proud of if not = 'screwed the pooch'
This is the year of Ricky Davis.
So are they offering picks as well or instead of all those guys? And if not, where does the holdup come from, the Lakers or the Bulls? Given the way the Lakers have been run lately, I wouldn't be suprised if its them.
But you can assume the Bulls will probably finish with about the tenth best record in the league as currently constituted, and even better after they get Kobe. So the pick(s) they have to offer in a Kobe deal probably won't end up having much value for the Lakers. (The odds that a player will be a star drops off dramatically after the first 3, 7, and 10 picks in a draft.) It's still a question of the Lakers feeling they get fair value.
I went back to look at my predictions from last year excepting them to be catastrophically wrong, but they were better than I expected.
I got the playoffs seedings all wrong (noteably, I overestimated Houston, LAC, IND, ORL, and MIL) but I predicted SA over CLE in the finals, which has to count for something.
Who is more likely to go crazy: Bonzi or Franchise?
The last day of last season was really, really bad for the Bulls. They switched seeds with Cavs, giving them the Heat and Pistons instead of the Wiz and Nets, and the lottery value of that Knicks pick moved down like 3 spots.
What are the odds of Kirilenko and Jerry Sloan hooking up on AK's birthday?
But you can assume the Bulls will probably finish with about the tenth best record in the league as currently constituted, and even better after they get Kobe. So the pick(s) they have to offer in a Kobe deal probably won't end up having much value for the Lakers. (The odds that a player will be a star drops off dramatically after the first 3, 7, and 10 picks in a draft.) It's still a question of the Lakers feeling they get fair value.
Sure, that's a problem. But they could also include 2 first rounders, right? Maybe then the Lakers could trade up? I'm just suprised I haven't heard picks included in these trade rumors. Maybe its just the case that the Lakers are stuck on superstar mode, where 3 or 4 good young players just don't mean anything to them.
Don't forget when Petey said it was "obvious" that Dallas would beat GS in the playoffs and that it was so obvious he didn't need to provide any reasons.
I'm just now starting to become a rabid fan after years of disinterest. The last year I really followed the NBA closely was 1992. So my newbie picks:
East:
Chicago, Detroit, Boston, Orlando, Washington, Cleveland, New York, Miami
West:
Dallas, Denver, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans, Golden State
Chicago over San Antonio in the Finals
MVP: LeBron James
Rookie of the Year: Kevin Durant
Philadelphia will have the most ping-pong balls
Hey, NickS, you got the Finals right too. Sorry. By the end of the thread, I was pretty disgusted with my own predictions. (Minnesota to make the playoffs??? Yikes. That's like predicting Chris Dodd to finish in the top 2 or 3 in Iowa. Maybe people ought to not take my NBA opinions seriously - they can feel free to keep on listening to my political opinions, though.)
I think the team people are sleeping on is Indiana. Jim O'Brien is a huge prick, but he gets veteran teams to play hard for him.
As for Kobe, the deal with Chicago should be Hinrich/Gordon/Noah/Thomas+filler and a couple of #1s for Kobe. That gives LA a HUGE amount of flexibility to rebuild their team and gives the Bulls a starting 5 of Duhon/Kobe/Smith/Wallace/Deng with Nochioni off the bench. Being a Celtics fan, I'd be happy to see that deal not happen.
Mike
"Don't forget when Petey said it was "obvious" that Dallas would beat GS in the playoffs and that it was so obvious he didn't need to provide any reasons."
It'll be obvious this spring that both #1 seeds are going to beat both #8 seeds.
I'll take 95% accuracy and live with the lumps from the other 5% of the time.
East: Chicago, Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Orlando, Cleveland, New York, Washington
West: Phoenix, SA, Houston, Dallas, Utah, Denver, GS, NO
Rondo is strong, quick, and can sometimes take advantage of his abnormally large hands (he once had *19* rebounds in a college game), but boy can he not shoot.
I have never seen an NBA player's jump shooting form change as dramatically as Rondo's did from last year to this preseason. Last year, his J was drop dead ugly. This year, it looks like a real jumper. I have no idea if this will result in significantly better shooting for him, but it's certainly a positive development.
It'll be obvious this spring that both #1 seeds are going to beat both #8 seeds.
I'll take 95% accuracy and live with the lumps from the other 5% of the time.
I guess. But if you bothered to pay attention, you might have noticed that Dallas sort of limped into the playoffs, while GS was on fire.
I am personally finding this year incredibly difficult to predict, so I'm outsourcing my predictions to this thread (scroll down to Mike G's 10/11 7:38 post for a readable summary).
East:
(1) CHI, (2) CLE, (3) BOS, (4) DET, (5) ORL, (6) TOR, (7) NJ, (8) MIA
West:
(1) DAL, (2) SA, (3) HOU, (4) PHX, (5) UTA, (6) DEN, (7) LAL, (8) NOK
BTW, this was actually last year's NBA predictions thread.
Nice, Al. Mine weren't too bad, and I had CLE through to the Finals.
West (reg): Mavs, Suns, Jazz, Spurs, Rockets, Lakers, Nuggs, Hornets.
West (pff): Mavs over Suns. (Mavs win it all.)
East (reg): Pistons, Celts, Bulls, Raps, Cavs, Nets, Wizards, Knicks.
East (pff): Celts over Pistons.
But they could also include 2 first rounders, right? Maybe then the Lakers could trade up?
Other teams rarely trade down from high picks for the same reason: lower picks have drastically lower value than high picks. 2 bench contributors does not equal one star.
"But if you bothered to pay attention, you might have noticed that Dallas sort of limped into the playoffs, while GS was on fire."
In retrospect, the Avery Johnson / Don Nelson dynamic was far more important than how the teams had been playing in March and April.
I would like to revise my earlier prediction that the 76ers would win fewer games than the Eagles. Sadly, this has nothing to do with the prospects of the 76ers.
I have only two predictions: 1) Barring injury, San Antonio will win the Western Conference again. 2) Boston won't win the East and KG may cry.
Freddie brings up a really interesting point. Because Kobe can nix any trade deal, and will, having everything to gain and little to lose, getting fair value for him becomes even harder for the Lakers.
And color me unconvinced on this. The Lakers are in pretty good shape, mostly because Dr. Buss is pretty sane. Kobe walking away means he has given away two years of his career (when he'll be 31) and identified a team that has 20 mil. in cap space '09. The Lakers, in turn, get cap space to make runs at 'Bron and Wade, who can go free agent in '10 (IIRC).
Boston wins the Atlantic
Chicago wins the Central
Dallas wins the Midwest
Phoenix wins the Pacific
Chicago over Detroit
Suns over Nuggets
Suns over Bulls in 5
Yao Ming for MVP
Al Horford for ROY
Jerry Sloan for COY
Detroit, the Wizards, and the Kings will be better than people think.
Hey Freddie, there's six divisions in the league now. :>
In other news, did you hear Bush was re-elected?
Hey Freddie, there's six divisions in the league now. :>
Heh.
But Horford for ROY sounds right to me.
Other teams rarely trade down from high picks for the same reason: lower picks have drastically lower value than high picks. 2 bench contributors does not equal one star.
Well, sure. Not many NBA teams make trades period. But however you cut it, first rounds picks represent value. If your GM is smart he can maximize that value for the needs of your team. The big advantage of trading Kobe for picks (in part) is that picks certainly don't make the destination team any worse this year!
Whoops. I did actually know that, as you'll see in past threads. My bad.
Utah wins the Northwest, and Orlando wins the Southeast by default.
SCMT, your 2009/2010 scenario for the Lakers intrigues me ... the only issue is whether the next two years give Kobe enough time to accomplish the complete destruction of the franchise, which seems to be his goal.
The big advantage of trading Kobe for picks (in part) is that picks certainly don't make the destination team any worse this year!
The better the destination team remains, the less valuable are the picks they give up.
It's going to be interesting to see how Kobe handles the situation.
He's moved pretty far out on the ledge already.
If he's willing to take the PR hit, he can certainly force LA's hand. But he'll have to take a really big PR hit.
That's never seemed to bother him much in the past, of course...
The better the destination team remains, the less valuable are the picks they give up.
Dude, what do you think I am, an idiot? So based on your responses, what should I conclude, that it doesn't make sense for the Lakers to seek draft picks in a trade with the Bulls? I would think that's pretty obviously not the case.
it doesn't make sense for the Lakers to seek draft picks in a trade with the Bulls? I would think that's pretty obviously not the case.
Certainly it's not "pretty obviously not the case." I wouldn't want Bulls' picks in the twenties. What's the point? I'd certainly prefer an NBA player, about whom I have better information to evaluate.
If he's willing to take the PR hit, he can certainly force LA's hand.
It's not clear to me that such is true. Buss is much, much better at this game than most of the other owners, I think. Maybe it makes sense to ask what's more fungible: money or career years. I like Buss's hand.
"It's not clear to me that such is true. Buss is much, much better at this game than most of the other owners"
Your 'Dr. Buss' worship baffles me, SCMT, but that's a topic for another day.
On the topic at hand, Kobe can sit out games with pseudo-injuries, refuse to shoot some games, refuse to pass some games, and generally be such a problem that the Lakers will be operating in a permanent crisis mode.
If he does this, they'll ship him wherever he wants sooner rather than later. They'll be losing most of their games. What is their alternative going to be? Suspend him?
If Kobe is willing to suffer the PR consequences, he's got the Lakers over a barrel.
Dude, what do you think I am, an idiot? So based on your responses, what should I conclude, that it doesn't make sense for the Lakers to seek draft picks in a trade with the Bulls? I would think that's pretty obviously not the case.
As a throw-in, whatever, maybe. But they really don't add much value from the Lakers' point of view.
To answer your question, some 30 posts later, Petey, I actually do think the Spurs will have the top seed, and in fact think they will have the best record in franchise history this season, which would be at least 63 wins. Main reasons for this:
Big three are healthy and relatively rested, especially Manu, who didn't play for Argentina for the first time in years. I continue to believe Duncan will age well because he relies less on athleticism than on his fundamentals, savvy, and just knowing where everyone is all the time.
The Spurs have a history of guys really making a step forward in their second year in the system. The defense in particular takes a long time to master, and guys spend their first year thinking more than playing. Oberto, Finley, and Barry are all recent examples of this. I look for much improved years from Elson and I also look for Bonner to replace Horry in the rotation and more than compensate for his production.
And there is noone trying to learn the system this year. Everyone and the kitchen sink is back. The Spurs really struggled through December and January last year, and still managed the third best record in the league. I have a hard time seeing this team having any kind of long-term rough stretch during the regular season.
Next, what you said above about Parker is exactly right. He is no better than the third-best player on the team, and maybe isn't even that high, but he is perfect for this system and is still getting better. His shot really came around in the second half of the season last year, and even moreso in the playoffs, and he will show the three-ball again.
Duncan just signed an extension for $11 million less than the maximum to preserve the salary cap flexibility we have into the future. When the no-doubt greatest player in franchise history in the middle of his prime announces he is not bigger than the team unequivocally like this, guys fall in line. Tim is going nowhere; Pop is going nowhere; Buford is going nowhere.
Finally, there are a couple of things about the rotation that we have discovered in the last couple of years that Popovich is going to nuch more frequently. Manu is a perfectly capable back-up point guard for 12 minutes per night, especially with Barry also in the game. The small lineup of Duncan and four shooters works really well, but the key is having Finley in the game because he is the one small who rebounds very well for his size. These adjustments mean we do a better job of keeping our best players on the floor longer.
All that being said, I wouldn't give the Spurs much more than about a 30-35% chance of coming out of the West. Basically, you could do a reverse lottery of the teams 1-8 and have a decent enough model (eight balls for the Spurs, seven for the Mavs, and so on). Except I'd ding the Nuggets a couple of balls for having Karl as the coach, but they could earn them back by canning his butt.
What is their alternative going to be? Suspend him?
Yup. (Might as well save some money.) Their season ticket-holders have already renewed, and they renew at a terrific rate. At some point, Kobe's advisors, advertisers, the league, etc. start leaning on him. Kobe's problem--as opposed to someone like Jordan--is that everyone is already primed to line up on the other side.
Your 'Dr. Buss' worship baffles me, SCMT, but that's a topic for another day.
I know he's no Dream Machine like your boy Isiah, who cracked the seekrit code of buying valueless contracts so that he could trade them for valuable contracts--that was the claim right? not that he'd buy the contracts out, right?--but, as you say, another day.
"Kobe's problem--as opposed to someone like Jordan--is that everyone is already primed to line up on the other side."
That's also his strength here. Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.
Everyone already hates Kobe. I like 99% of the players in the association, and I don't like Kobe. And Eagle has permanently limited his endorsement potential. Who can lean on him?
"Might as well save some money."
Assuming Kobe has thought this through, they'd be suspending him with pay.
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Also, the unique no-trade clause means that the Lakers are deprived of their nuclear option - trading Kobe to a lousy team as punishment.
"I know he's no Dream Machine like your boy Isiah, who cracked the seekrit code of buying valueless contracts so that he could trade them for valuable contracts--that was the claim right? not that he'd buy the contracts out, right?--but, as you say, another day."
Of course, part of the reason I love Zeke stems from his playing days. He was Iverson before Iverson was Iverson.
But I don't love Chuck and Jimmy Dolan.
I can understand loving Jerry West for engineering the Lakers' titles, but Buss? Seems like an unappealing dude to me, even before he screwed up his franchise by replacing West with his son...
(Tangentially, I just discovered this week that Iverson named one of his sons after Zeke.)
Whoever said Jim O'Brien is a dick simply doesn't know what they're talking about. Having watched OB coach in Boston for years, he was one of the classiest individuals in the entire league, the kind of guy you wish was your sons coach. He also gains the respect of all of his players and doesn't jerk them around like other coaches. Players play hard for him. You can debate his basketball philosophy all you want, but if you're going to speak to his integrity or personality, you need to know of what you speak.
As to Boston, they look amazing so far. Yes, it's only the preseason, but even in preseason you can see how much they move the ball and how much KG affects everything in such a huge way. These guys are monsters, and each guy demands a double team, so there will always be an open man. It's a beautiful thing.
People diss Boston's defense, but this is a team who starts three defensive specialists (KG, Perkins and Rondo), two of whom are arguably the very best or close to that defensively at their positions in the league (KG & Rondo).
Off the bench, you get 2 more defensive specialists in Posey and Tony Allen. Eddie House is also ready for his Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson season, and shoots lights out.
So the defensive argument and the bench argument doesn't work for me. Yes, they are a little thin upfront off the bench, but KG solves tons of problems and can simply do it all. At his side, Perkins looks like he will have a hell of a season, and Powe looks solid. Big Baby ain't there yet, but he's got skills and rebounds huge. It's true that to have a stud bench the Celtics need a better big man combo than Powe/Pollard/Baby off the bench, but one player would solve that.
Anyway, I can see Detroit being better than the Celtics in the regular season and paying them tight in the playoffs, but that's it, and only because they match up so well and are so in synch with each other.
Chicago is simply overrated. Yes, good regular season team. But who do they go to in the playoffs when it matters? Cleveland has simply taken a step back. Maybe two. Orlando improved slightly but the East as a whole improved more than they did, so they take a step back too. Miami, who knows - Ricky Davis will help them a lot, but they go only as far as Shaq/Wade take them, we'll have to see, you can't count them out.
The Knicks have improved, but will shoot themselves in the foot when it matters most, and still don't play any D. Toronto will be a team to recon with, but still too young.
So I got:
East:
Detroit, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland, Miami, New York
West:
Dallas, Denver, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Utah, Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State
Boston over Dallas in the finals
MVP: Kevin Garnett
Rookie of the Year: Al Thorton
"Whoever said Jim O'Brien is a dick simply doesn't know what they're talking about. Having watched OB coach in Boston for years, he was one of the classiest individuals in the entire league, the kind of guy you wish was your sons coach. He also gains the respect of all of his players and doesn't jerk them around like other coaches. Players play hard for him. You can debate his basketball philosophy all you want, but if you're going to speak to his integrity or personality, you need to know of what you speak."
I didn't say he was a "dick". I said he was a "prick". Others' definitions may vary, but to me a "dick" is a person with ill purpose while a "prick" is just a guy who can be hard to deal with.
I mean, why exactly was O'Brien booted out of Philly after just one year, a year they went to the playoffs, with very little complaint by anyone within or without the organization? And what exactly would you call a guy who walks out on his players, his team and that team's fans...simply because the GM traded away a couple of role players? Imagine if Phil Jackson quit the Lakers in mid-season this year because they traded away Luke Walton and Kwame Brown. That's pretty much what O'Brien did to the Celtics.
O'Brien is a good, if limited, coach and he might be a good guy in most respects. But he's also got a track record of some questionable behavior.
Mike
"I mean, why exactly was O'Brien booted out of Philly after just one year"
Because he wouldn't play Dalembert without him earning the minutes, while management wanted Dalembert on the floor no matter what.
Remember, if Billy King is in a dispute with someone, someone is always correct.
I thought O'Brien did a good job in Philly and a good job in Boston. I'd hire him.
My apologies for misquoting Mike, but I still question the characterization.
OB left Boston becuase Danny Ainge decided he wasn't going to play to win and needed to dismantle the team, and OB wasn't going to just coach a team that wanted to tank, the way Doc Rivers ir NK Carr did. And frankly, I think most people in Boston respected the hell out of that. If anything, the prick move was Ainge taking a team that was competing in the playoffs and tearing it apart. I can understand the argument that it needed to be done, but I can hardly fault OB for not wanting to sit around and watch all his hard work torn to pieces. If anything, it was a move of the highest integrity.
The Philly thing is more mysterious, so I can't really comment on it. But I also haven't seen any reports saying that OB did anything bad. Yes, Chrsi Webber and Sam Dalambert were apparently unhappy with their roles, but I imagine by "roles" they meant OB was askign them to play defense. If anything, it seems more that Philly saw the opening to hire Mo Cheeks and went and took it, which you can't blame them for, considering what that guys means to the city.
I do agree that OB is a "good, if limited coach" but all the evidence I've ever seen says that Jim O'Brien is a gentleman of the highest order, honest and trustworthy, and a hard worker and great communicator.
late to the party, but we've got some serious forest/trees issues here. almost everyone on this thread no doubt knows way more about ball, and watches way more ball, than i do. that may be why they seem to miss the obvious:
denver going to finals? please. teams almost never make that big a jump, and almost certainly not in the west. (yeah, last year's call of denver over spurs really panned out well.)
celtics winning it all? please. again, teams almost never make that jump, no matter how many superstars you stock up on a team (cf. rox with chuck and scottie). the east is pretty weak, so this actually make more sense than (e.g.) denver going far. but still, this doesn't seem particularly likely (much better chance boston reaches finals).
admittedly, the east is interesting -- chicago hasn't really proven they can get there, le bron doesn't have help he needs, detroit should be able to win it but they seem to get distracted (or maybe that's just sheed), miami's way too old/slow/injured, wiz has no D.
i think jersey might be the bold pick to seemingly come out of nowhere and make the finals again, or at least lose to boston in conf finals (betting against kidd is not wise generally, maybe getting kristic back gets them over the hump).
discounting the spurs? please. that's been a foolish bet going on a decade now, absent fairly freakish bad luck/play (fisher .4, foul on dirk). rockets aren't going to make the leap in one year, particularly with new coach/players. phx is getting older, bench is thinner, don't really look any better than last year. dallas should be great, question is whether they will lose it when things go a little bit southish in playoffs, suggesting another collapse.
most of this is pretty obvious to just a casual observer, and the nba is set up to work this way (with 7 game playoff series, the better team should almost always win).
Nobody thinks Denver's going to the Finals, dj. I don't think anybody except Petey thinks Denver is getting out of the first round.
Superflat's comment confuses me a little bit. Does he like Boston to get out of the East or not? He has NJ losing to Boston in the EC finals (if not going to the NBA finals), but right above it dismisses Boston.
Also, I forgot to mention above, I think Atlanta will make the playoffs...
Also, I forgot to mention above, I think Atlanta will make the playoffs.
Which leads me to a prediction of my own: sometime this year, events will force Al to get the treatment for alcoholism he so obviously needs.
i dismissed boston winning it all against whatever west monster they're up against. but i could see them getting to conf finals, and even winning, because the east is weakish. and it's not just calls for denver to make finals, but even conf finals that i find somewhat laughable unless they get some ridiculously easy path to the conf finals (e.g., spurs, suns, and mavs somehow all on same side of bracket).
awesomeness: just checked the thread from last year, i called mavs going down, and miami too. admittedly, both dallas and miami losing had quirks i didn't foresee, so it doesn't really count as particularly accurate prognostiwhatever. but i'll take what i can get.
On Denver, I can understand people not thinking they have a chance verse San Antonio, Dallas or Phoenix.
But you have to consider:
1. Carmelo and AI together for a full season, and one in which Melo is not hurt, and Melo has improved by a huge amount. He is clearly a Top 10 player now, which I think anyone who watched the FIBA or whatever tourney this summer would agree with.
2. Kenyon Martin - He is back from Injury, and when he is not hurt, he is a stud PF who plays huge D, raises the intensity to a whole nother level. Look, New Jersey has never been the same since Kenyon left. With him, twice to the Finals. Get rid of him and get Vince Carter, and you've got a soft team, no matter how good J Kidd is. Kenyon's return is huge.
3. Nene - Another guy who has struggled with injuries and who if healthy should really help.
Does anyone have five players as good as AI, Melo, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Nene?
I'm not saying they win out, but if they aren't hit with the injury bug they should compete with anybody in the league.
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Comments closed November 13, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
"Season starts tonight; I'm going to make a bold prediction that San Antonio will beat Portland."
The debate will make for better TV.
Watching Portland play this year is a bit too meta for me.
Posted by Petey | October 30, 2007 12:42 PM