This deadly bombing in Pakistan creates one of those awkward blogging situations where it's clearly the most important story of the day, and it seems like it would be wrong to avoid mentioning the most important story of the day, and yet I don't have anything in particular to say about it. Obviously, I'll link if I see anything interesting someplace non-obvious.
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Pakistan Post
19 Oct 2007 09:34 am
Comments (30)
Don't you know that you're supposed to demostrate your seriousness by denouncing Islamofasicism and the Democrat Party, and pledging to "stay the course" forever in Iraq, on these occasions?
"Most important"? Possibly of "the day."
OT, by definition, but:
The most important story as such is the progress of what is laughingly called the FISA "reform" bill, since giving the telcos retroactive immunity for illegal acts, even as court cases centered on those acts proceed, is going to determine whether we have a rule of law in this country.
Or, more precisely, whether we will have one law for corporate persons that can make massive campaign contributions and have, through their technical capabilities in conjunction with the powers of the NSA, the power to ratf*ck anyone, and a second law for ordinary, human persons -- who are going to be granted "Get Out Of Jail Free" cards for their past acts when the moon turns to green cheese and hell freezes over.
Awaiting your thoughts on this two-tier system of justice and the collapse of Constitutional government...
Don't you know that you're supposed to demostrate your seriousness by denouncing Islamofasicism and the Democrat Party, and pledging to "stay the course" forever in Iraq, on these occasions?
Huh. I thought you were supposed to demonstrate your seriousness by saying how this event confirms everything you've ever written about George Bush and how there would never be any violence in the world if it weren't for George Bush and those insane neocons.
Don't you know that you're supposed to demostrate your seriousness by denouncing Islamofasicism and the Democrat Party, and pledging to "stay the course" forever in Iraq, on these occasions?
Huh. I thought you were supposed to demonstrate your seriousness by saying how this event confirms everything you've ever written about George Bush and how there would never be any violence in the world if it weren't for George Bush and those insane neocons.
Al, do you ever get itchy in your straw man factory?
It may be the most important international story, or the most important story in pakistan. It is not, however, the most important story in America. This will have very little impact on domestic life within this country, while the senates continuous capitulation on every issue our ancestors killed and died for will unfortunately have a very big part to play within our own nation's history.
Well, it's good you posted. This issue doesn't have a easy interpretation for Americans, since its not about the USA at all.
Well, Matt: what CAN one say about events in Pakistan? Yes, the Bhutto Parade bombing is a "big" story, but sadly, reports such as this from the Middle East/South Asia are just so common, so what-else-is-new? that comment about them is just superfluous.
Well, Matt, you could hardly do worse in commenting on this than the AP headline I just saw: "Bhutto Blames Deadly Attack on Militants". Well, yes, I suppose that's a safe bet, huh?
Al. Yes, someone on some lefty blog will eventually blame every bad thing on George Bush. But at the same time, a whole crew of right wing pundits and statesmen will be on cable news laying the blame on Bill Clinton and/or Nancy Pelosi.
That's the beauty of blogging. You can talk about what you want to talk about without being forced to do the "Anna Nicole Smith is still dead" type stories.
Of course, things might be different if you're a pro working under the Atlantic banner...
The first thing that came to mind when I saw this news was "Wouldn't it have been nice for President Musharraf if one of his political headaches got blown to bits?"
Then I started thinking about it some more. He could have used Bhutto's killings to consolidate his own position in power by pointing out the threat of the militants and using it as an excuse to postpone elections. By promising to avenge her death, he can co-opt some of her supporters that wanted him gone.
Bhutto has come out today saying that security was virtually non-existent for her return and the CNN reporter and producer on the scene said that anybody could get right up to her vehicle and touch it if they wanted to.
Coincidence? Maybe, but it certainly makes one wonder....
Well, the same group of terrorists who conducted the largest terrorist attack ever against the United States have now, six full years later, managed to conduct the largest terrorist attack against Pakistan, and this after we start two wars ostensibly to neutralize these same terrorists. Can we say, yet, that the enterprise has simply been a colossal failure so far?
Well, the same group of terrorists who conducted the largest terrorist attack ever against the United States have now, six full years later, managed to conduct the largest terrorist attack against Pakistan
Whoa..back up there.
I don't even know where to start making a list of who would want to kill Bhutto in Pakistan but "the same people" aren't on there.
...deputy information minister Tariq Azeem said there had been a prior threat by Baitullah Mehsud, a pro-Taliban warlord in the tribal zone of South Waziristan, to launch suicide attacks on Bhutto.
Doesn't Pakistan have any honorable leaders? I can't believe they're recycling Bhutto. Is that all they got?
And then I wondered how the rest of the world views our own candidates. Romney? Guiliani? Huckleberry? Hitlery? Jeesh, we have it almost as bad as Pakistan.
>Well, the same group of terrorists who conducted >the largest terrorist attack ever against the
> United States have now, six full years later, managed to conduct the largest terrorist attack against Pakistan
This is convincing only if you presume that the
Pakistani government was trying its level best
to provide security for one of Musharraf's chief
rivals. There's no basis at all for this
presumption.
As such, this says nothing at all about the effects
of US policy. For that matter, it doesn't even say anything about the security situation in Pakistan.
DJ, am I hearing correctly that you think that the current leadership of Pakistan is complicit in al-Qaeda mass casualty attacks? The same current leadership of Pakistan who are our good friends and partners in the war on terror?
This situation is well and truly fucked.
I have no idea who bombed Bhutto, but the Pakistani Government blaming a troublesome warlord out in Waziristan is boilerplate. It could even be true, but it's what they were going to say regardless. When a sewer pipe breaks in New Dehli, India blames the ISI. Anything blows up in Turkey and it had to be the PKK, see Spain and ETA, etc..
'Well, Matt, you could hardly do worse in commenting on this than the AP headline I just saw: "Bhutto Blames Deadly Attack on Militants". Well, yes, I suppose that's a safe bet, huh? '-Posted by Glenn
It could have been a gang of radical moderates.
It's perfectly obvious, this attack was orchestrated by the International Zionist Conspiracy, in conjunction with the Illuminati, and the Masons. It's all very simple, you're just stupid if you don't understand it (snark).
Well, the same group of terrorists who conducted >the largest terrorist attack ever against the
> United States have now, six full years later, managed to conduct the largest terrorist attack against Pakistan
If you view these terrorists as drawing their motivation from the same source as OBL, militant Islam, then they are the same group of terrorists. OBL isn't sitting in a cave pulling the strings on international Islamic based terrorism. It has morphed far beyond that. The only thing I could think of when I saw those pictures from Pakistan was "savages". If they are willing to do that to their fellow believers then you better bet they would do it to you if given the chance.
It's not the most important story of the day, unless you're Pakistani. It doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know about the intersection of everyday Pakistani politics and regional Islamist politico-military movements. In a way, it's the least newsworthy story imaginable, especially for a blog because there's no intelligent commentary to be made about it. For you to even mention it, lamenting that you have nothing to say about it, is just dead-tree-media-envy.
Well, Matt: what CAN one say about events in Pakistan? Yes, the Bhutto Parade bombing is a "big" story, but sadly, reports such as this from the Middle East/South Asia are just so common, so what-else-is-new? that comment about them is just superfluous.
Posted by Jay C
Precisely because they are becoming so common is why it is big news. Until Muslim religious leaders uniformly renounce terror as a political tactic, not a path to Paradise, the cancer the Muslims embraced of car bombs and suicide bombers will spread further and further into their own societies. As an expedient method of assuring one Muslim faction prevails over another by blowing the "other side's crowds" to bits, power-drilling the head of a rival's benefactor or local mayor, etc.
The Muslims, including the "silent, moderate" ones - made a huge mistake assuming that radical Muslim "freedom fighters" would just kill the infidels, apostates, heretics the moderates could care less about.
Hamas & PLA types that loved their champion shaheed martyrs skewering Jewish children with nail bombs, sent them off with ecstatic funerals and posters and videos of the shaheeds for their children - are now finding their own kids skewered and shredded by nail bombs in Gaza as both factions fight for power.
In Iraq, Shiite and Sunni hardcore terrorists and those insurgents using terror occasionally - against Saddam, against Americans, against the other Muslim or ethnic Iraqi groups - then saw the evil butchery come into their own intrasectarian struggles. Sunni AQ going at it with Sunni Iraqi insurgents. One Shiite faction bombing the other's market stall, kidnapping and killing THEIR police candidates.
Algeria went through a civil war in the 90s that was 100% Sunni, religious extremists against state security, both using terror, 600,000 killed. With the state winning as the Sunni religious extremists became so lethally intolerant that the masses rejected them.
Afghanistan had the Taliban trying to kill any ethnic Haziri in country and ruling over fellow Sunni with bloody terror practices.
Saudi Arabia encouraged radical extremism and extolled suicide bombers in Palestine - then before they knew it, the royal family was in the cross-hairs and KSA is desperately fighting the internal cancer they helped create,
As is Yemen.
As is Jordan.
Muslim immigrant status is jeopardized in the long-term in Europe and the Western Hemisphere if Mulim fascination with Jihad, martyrdom against infidels, and terror continues..
Iran's Islamic Revolution has long focused on consuming and oppressing fellow Iranians.
Bangladesh has seen car bombs used in politics.
The Kurds tolerated the PKK. Now Turkey is poised at their Borders to come in and wipe out PKK and anyone that fights with them, undoing much of the great strides the Kurds have made since the US began protecting them from Saddam..
Now Pakistan.
Yes, the Basques, FARC, the IRA, and Tamil Tigers use terror or used terror, but now, 98% of all terror is happening in the Islamic world.
And Islam - all of Islam - has to decide if terror is something they wish to live with a long while and if it is religiously sanctioned.
Why, if Bhutto had forewarning of an attack, did she insist on taking the more dangerous route, rather than the helicopter trip suggested by her security?
Hundreds are dead because of that decision.
Chris Ford,
Great post. You hit the nail on the head.
I would just add that five million Jews in Israel are not the reason that most of the Muslim world (> 1 billion) lacks basic freedoms, economic and social opportunity, etc.
The main reason Matt has nothing to say about it is that he probably knows ZIP about what's going on over there.
And probably doesn't care.
If he did, he'd be reading Asia Times where a couple of reporters are following events very closely in Pakistan.
And what's important now is that supposedly the Pakistan government has decided to "tame" the Federally Administered Tribal Areas completely, rather than the half-hearted previous attempts.
And that is bad news for the government of Pakistan - because the odds are they are going to lose that fight.
It may take years, but the usual sequence of events will occur - indeed, already are occurring.
1) The government cracks down on malcontents.
2) The malcontents fight back.
3) The government cracks down harder, thus alienating the rest of the civilian population.
4) The civilian population starts siding with the malcontents, despite not really being on their side.
5) The malcontents manage to get up to the "magic" 5% of the population needed to be an "insurgency".
6) Eventually either the government backs off and lets the malcontents into the government, or the government falls.
This pattern is consistent and is now starting in Pakistan.
Recent reports are that the Islamists in the FATA are organizing to take down the Pakistan government. At the same time, the Pakistan government is organizing to take down the Islamists.
The stakes are very high on both sides. The Islamists have no where to go - easily, at least - if they are kicked out of Pakistan and forced to go into Afghanistan. If they are kicked out, it will slow the Afghan Taliban resistance by an estimated 85% - a good deal for the US and the Afghan government. The Pakistani government, OTOH, can't afford to have these people destabilizing the government at every turn and directly threatening the government.
However, the performance of the Pakistani military against the FATA tribes has been unimpressive of late - with hundreds of soldiers surrendering to tribal militants without a shot being fired. Not to mention the ruthless bombing of the civilian population.
Apparently the current plan is to put a couple hundred thousand troops into the FATA's main towns on a permanent basis.
Sounds exactly like Petraeus's plan for Baghdad - and that didn't work.
At least the Pakistani troops are the same people as the insurgents - oops, maybe not: actually the intent appears to be to bring in Shia troops from other areas of Pakistan, because the Sunni and Pashtun troops don't like firing on their own people...
Where have we heard that problem before? Yup - Iraq.
While Barnett Rubin is undoubtedly correct when he states that there is no way the Islamists would win in an election today in Pakistan, even he must admit that trying to drive out the Islamists from the 3.3 million population of the FATA is a risky endeavor.
My prediction: within ten years, Pakistan's government will fall and Pakistan will become an Islamist state. Or, alternatively, Pakistan's government will fall and become an even more oppressive dictatorship - and then later, it will fall and become an Islamist state.
In any event, the odds of Pakistan being able to clean up the FATA - even using SLC's favorite "Hama rules" - are pretty slim.
Just to be clear, I wasn't implying that the Pakistani government was in on the attack. I wouldn't know, anyway. Just that it seems to
have been less than enthusiastic in treating
security for Bhutto as a top priority.
The point is that Bhutto's return is a somewhat
unique event and so I don't see what you can
possibly conclude about the general security
situation in Pakistan from this attack.
What you can conclude is that the security situation is not good. If the attack was done by Islamic militants outside the government, that's bad enough.
If it was done by Islamic militants inside the ISI, that's worse.
If you read the details of the attack, the fact that Bhutto is alive today really is close to a miracle. The attack was very nearly a total success.
Comments closed November 02, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
Instaglesias!
Posted by SomeCallMeTim | October 19, 2007 9:39 AM