US officially sanctions the Quds Force, a sub-unit of the IRGC, "the first time that the United States has taken such steps against the armed forces of any sovereign government."
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Rising Tension
25 Oct 2007 01:59 pm
Comments (16)
the war-mongers (Chris Ford above, Hiilary, Lieberman, Bush-Cheney are out in force and the drumbeat of lies by the usual cast of moral degenerates is getting louder and louder.
An excellent move if you think that War with Iran in the next 6 months is a good move. I'm not convinced the US is capable of controlling the outcome of a conflict with Iran enough to benifit from it. Like Iraq, Iran can be smashed to bits by the USAF and Marnines; but then what. That's the problem. Will the end state be what America needs in the region? I honestly don't know, I do know that the track record says no.
I am curious if the Iranian Parliament might just declare all American Private Contractors and non armed force personnel as illegal combattants, and direct the shia militias in Iraq to target them percisely and relentlessly. That would be the logical political counter step to this move by Congress.
I have to say that I am always profoundly moved to see conservatives standing up for gay rights, feminism, and religious liberty, to the point where they want to bomb the crap out of another country in order to attain them. I look forward to the same people fighting to protect gay rights, feminism, and religious freedom here in the US, too.
Matt-
You might want to use a less ambiguous word than "sanction."
(Not a rhetorical question) Has the US ever given 'frozen' assets back to the original owners?
Northern Observer, that is an excellent suggestion. But I don't think the Iranian government will do it. Why piss off a giant superpower that is coming apart at the seams? Just let the ripping continue, as the U.S. drifts from failure to failure in an attempt to placate its most rabid minority. It is as if our foreign policy were being conducted by some prison gang, like the Aryan nation.
I am curious if the Iranian Parliament might just declare all American Private Contractors and non armed force personnel as illegal combattants, and direct the shia militias in Iraq to target them percisely and relentlessly. That would be the logical political counter step to this move by Congress.
Posted by Northern Observer
You do realize that such a declaration to locate and kill US civilians operating under UN authorization, UN law, and with the (grudging) consent of the Noble Iraqi Shiite majority would be a declaration of war?
And all-out war, where all the gloves would be off the US military to use full, unchecked military force on Shiites allying with Iran?
Also, do you realize that 3 days later the Iranian Navy, AF would be non-existent? Nuclear program non-existent? And that 90% of Irans ground forces are at least 400 miles of open desert crossing away from the theater of war? No, Iran against an unchecked US military is a mighty hurtin' pack of Mullahs...
We might need a Draft, but if Iran declared war on US civilians, only the most self-centered pro-Israel chickenhawks and the true anti-Americans on the Left would object.
Like Iraq, Iran can be smashed to bits by the USAF and Marnines; but then what. That's the problem.
Not really. Kill as many IRG and Mullahs as possible. Wreck portions of Iran's transportation and electric grid infrastructure that will paralyze them, beyond a destroyed Iran's rebuild capacity, but can quickly be rebuilt by us if the opposition tosses the radical Islamists out of power as a condition.
Otherwise, no rebuild. No Occupation, except the oil and gas areas (5% of Iran's landmass).
No more oil revenue to the Mullahs, either. US takes the oil and gas fields to the West under military control after it evacuates all Iranian population close to them. Revenue, overseen by the UN, goes into a Special Trust for the Iranian people.
And waits for a kinder, gentler Iran to emerge. Hopefully sooner vs. later.
Ms. Rice said the measures were intended “to confront the threatening behavior of the Iranians.”
Haha. It's the US that is threatening the Iranians.
"(Not a rhetorical question) Has the US ever given 'frozen' assets back to the original owners?"
Sure. For example, when the Iranians released U.S. hostages we released the Iranian assets we had frozen.
Chris Ford,
Why would "self-centered pro-Israel chickenhawks" oppose an attack on Iran? I thought the Israel lobby was trying to provoke one.
Why would "self-centered pro-Israel chickenhawks" oppose an attack on Iran? I thought the Israel lobby was trying to provoke one.
Posted by Fred
Fred, you misread...I was talking about opposing the Draft.
And you know that the princesses and princlings of the Neocons were Never meant to be wasted in a Draft.
They would be screaming as hard against it as derailing their law school /Fed Patronage jobs/ join Dad's family business plans for some silly service lesser skilled and advantaged Americans could do/ Just as the anti-American Left would be outraged if a Draft started because nothing is worth fighting for.
Ford is pretty bloodthirsty, given that we have no reason whatsoever to start a war.
Also, if USA goes for a total war, we can be pretty vulnerable to retaliation. Ordinary terrorists are usually misfits and loosers, an actual government can use highly trained and motivated professionals who could, say, blow up American oil refineries. The latter are rather easy to sabotage using some middle-tech methods like ulta-light remote control planes with plastic explosives. Once ignited, a refinery burns pretty well, and if seveal are destroyed, the economic impact can be quite satisfactory.
Blowing up cars filled with gasoline on bridges during rush hour can also be an efficient way of wrecking mayhem. Several vans can start a chain reaction of exploding cars.
Trains with chemicals are also a good target.
Power lines come to mind. Several coordinated explosions in remote areas can cause an extensive blackout.
Countries do not do such stuff because it is pointless and invites retaliation. But as a retaliation...
Ford is a moron. Nothing he writes is worth taking seriously - even on the incredibly rare occasion where he might get a fact right.
If the US attacks Iran, Iran will rip the US a new one in Iraq, and elsewhere in the ME.
Iranian agents in Iraq will number in the scores of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands. They, with the help of the Iraqi Shia, will cut off the entire US forces supply lines in Iraq (at least from the south, I'm not sure about their influence from the north - although with Turkey getting pissed off at the US, that supply line is in doubt as well.)
Within ninety days, US forces in Iraq will be out of food, water, fuel, and ammo and be forced to evacuate north through Turkey (the only country that MIGHT let them out.)
Ford talks about the Iranian Air Force and Navy. Their Air Force is worthless, obviously. So what? Their Navy is in a position to sink at least one US Naval vessel, and if they get lucky, maybe several, using swarm tactics with the thousand small boats they have loaded with anti-ship missiles.
"And that 90% of Irans ground forces are at least 400 miles of open desert crossing away from the theater of war?"
Based on what facts? Where does this idiot think Iran has stationed its forces - on the Afghan border? Last rumor I heard was four divisions moved to the Iraq border.
All irrelevant in any event. No war between the US and Iran will be conventional, like the Iran-Iraq war.
During the summer of 2002 the US military staged the most elaborate and expensive war games ever conceived. Operation Millennium Challenge cost some $250 million, and required two years of planning. It was set in the Persian Gulf, and simulated a conflict with a hypothetical rogue state.
Retired Marine Lt. General Paul Van Riper was brought out of retirement to command the OPFOR - Opposing Force. In other words, Iran.
To quote one description of the debacle:
Astutely and very covertly, Van Riper armed his civilian marine craft and deployed them near the US fleet, which never expected an attack from small pleasure boats. Faced with a blunt US ultimatum to surrender, Force Red suddenly went on the offensive: and achieved complete tactical surprise. Force Red's prop-driven aircraft suddenly were swarming around the US warships, making Kamikaze dives. Some of the pleasure boats made suicide attacks. Others fired Silkworm cruise missiles from close range, and sunk a carrier, the largest ship in the US fleet, along with two helicopter-carriers loaded with marines. The sudden strike was reminiscent of the Al Qaeda sneak attack on the USS Cole in 2000. Yet, the Navy was unprepared. When it was over, most of the US fleet had been destroyed. Sixteen US warships lay on the bottom, and the rest were in disarray. Thousands of American sailors were dead, dying, or wounded. If the games had been real, it would have been the worst US naval defeat since Pearl Harbor.
But even if that is unlikely - and I fully expect such a major defeat to actually be unlikely - the bottom line is that the US cannot DEFEAT Iran. It can DESTROY Iran's economic and military infrastructure - just as it did Iraq's. But it cannot DEFEAT Iran's population and military forces, just as it has not done so in Iraq.
Iran can use the exact same tactics used in Lebanon by Hizballah to defeat the Israelis last year, and used in Iraq to defeat the US forces.
Iran can't really lose.
Ford's hallucination that the Mullahs will be overthrown by an "opposition" that will end up hating the US more than they ever did the Mullahs is just more brazen stupidity.
Ford's hallucination that the US can simply seize the Khuzestan oil fields and everything else will be a cakewalk is just as bizarre as the predictions for Iraq before 2003.
In reality, the Iranians will bleed the US militarily, economically, and geopolitically to death over the next ten years.
It will be the biggest military defeat for the US in its history.
And in the end, the Mullahs will be in power, Iran will rebuild, and, assuming they even want nuclear weapons, they'll get them.
Not to mention that Iran's Basiji militia numbers anywhere from one to eleven MILLION people - all of whom are provided some degree of military training - and reportedly some of the Basiji units are now being provided with heavier weapons.
Every male in Iran gets 21 months of compulsory military service - meaning they can all shoot a weapon.
Meaning that if the US invades Iran, it will face not merely Iran's military forces - decimated or not by US air power - but every 18-year-old - and older - male in the country with a gun...
A political academic in Iran pointed out:
In fact, the defense doctrine of the Islamic Republic is based on a Qur’anic verse that commands the Moslems to acquire all sorts of weapons and equipments they can afford in order to deter and scare their opponents and the enemies God. Not surprisingly, this canon is coined as the symbol of the Revolutionary Guards and appears as an emblem on their flag and as a badge on their military uniform.
And I just found this rather brilliant article on what Iran might do in a war:
Payvand's Iran News ...
10/21/07
A Lesson from History on Attacking Iran
By Manouchehr Hosseinzadeh
Military Force May be Necessary, but Clever Strategy is Sufficient
http://www.payvand.com/news/07/oct/1209.html
Classic 4th Generation War theory, really.
William Lind has even suggested a complete surprise tactic:
It could also do something that would come as a total surprise to Washington and cross the Iran-Iraq border with four to six divisions, simply rolling up the American army of occupation in Iraq. Syria might well join in, knowing that it is only a question of time before it is attacked anyway. We have no field army in Iraq at this point; our troops are dispersed fighting insurgents. A couple dozen Scuds on the Green Zone would decapitate our leadership (possibly to our benefit). Yes, our air power would be a problem, but only until the Iranians got in close. Bad weather could provide enough cover for that. So could the Iranian and Syrian air forces, so long as they were willing to expend themselves. Our Air Force can be counted on to fight the air battle first.
He has also written this more extended description of how this could go:
How To Lose An Army
http://www.amconmag.com/2006/2006_12_18/article.html
There are two ways, not mutually exclusive, that Iran could attempt to cut our supply line in Iraq in response to an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The first would be by encouraging Shi’ite militias to which it is allied, including the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigades, to rise up against us throughout southern Iraq, which is Shi’ite country. The militias would be supported by widespread infiltration of Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who have shown themselves to be good at this kind of thing. They are the people who trained and equipped Hezbollah for its successful defense of southern Lebanon against the vaunted Israeli army this past summer.The Shi’ite militias already lie across our single supply line, and we should expect them to cut it in response to Iranian requests. We are already at war with the Mahdi Army, against which our forces in Iraq have been launching a series of recent raids and air strikes. A British journalist I know, one with long experience in Iraq, told me he asked the head of SCIRI, which controls the Badr Brigades, how he would respond if the U.S. attacked Iran. “Then,” he replied, “we would do our duty.”
Iran has a second, bolder option it could combine with a Shi’ite insurrection at our rear. It could cross the Iran-Iraq border with several armored and mechanized divisions of the regular Iranian Army, sever our supply lines, then move to roll us up from the south with the aim of encircling us, perhaps in and around Baghdad. This would be a classic operational maneuver, the sort of thing for which armored forces are designed.
At present, U.S. forces in Iraq could be vulnerable to such an action by the Iranian army. We have no field army in Iraq; necessarily, our forces are penny-packeted all over the place, dealing with insurgents. They would be hard-pressed to assemble quickly to meet a regular force, especially if fuel was running short.
The U.S. military’s answer, as is too often the case, will be air power. It is true that American air power could destroy any Iranian armored formations it caught in the open. But there is a tried-and-true defense against air power, one the Iranians could employ: bad weather. Like the Germans in the Battle of the Bulge, they could wait to launch their offensive until the weather promised a few days of protection. After that, they would be so close to our own forces that air power could not attack them without danger of hitting friendlies. (This is sometimes know as “hugging tactics.”) Reportedly, the Turkish General Staff thinks the Iranians can and will employ this second option, no doubt in combination with the first.
Perhaps the greatest danger lies in the fact that, just as the French high command refused to consider the possibility of a German attack through the Ardennes in 1940, Washington will not consider the possibility that an attack on Iran could cost us our army in Iraq. We have made one of the most common military mistakes—believing our own propaganda. Over and over, the U.S. military tells the world and itself, “No one can defeat us. No one can even fight us. We are the greatest military the world has ever seen!”
Unfortunately, like most propaganda, it’s bunk. The U.S. Armed Forces are technically well-trained, lavishly resourced Second-Generation militaries. They are today being fought and beaten by Fourth-Generation opponents in Iraq and Afghanistan. They can also be defeated by Third-Generation opponents who can react faster than America’s process-ridden, PowerPoint-enslaved military headquarters. They can be defeated by superior strategy, by trick, by surprise, and by preemption. Unbeatable militaries are like unsinkable ships: they are unsinkable until something sinks them.
If the U.S. were to lose the army it has in Iraq to Iraqi militias, Iranian regular forces, or a combination of both, cutting our one line of supply and then encircling us, the world would change. It would be our Adrianople, our Rocroi, our Stalingrad. American power and prestige would never recover. Nothing, not even Israel’s demands, should lead us to run this risk, which is inherent in any attack on Iran.
"In reality, the Iranians will bleed the US militarily, economically, and geopolitically to death over the next ten years."
I'd say RSH is a moron, especially since he regularly composes little mini-essays in comments section.
Earlier this week, MY approvingly linked to a good piece by Zakaria:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/57346/output/print
"Here is the reality. Iran has an economy the size of Finland's and an annual defense budget of around $4.8 billion. It has not invaded a country since the late 18th century. The United States has a GDP that is 68 times larger and defense expenditures that are 110 times greater. Israel and every Arab country (except Syria and Iraq) are quietly or actively allied against Iran. And yet we are to believe that Tehran is about to overturn the international system and replace it with an Islamo-fascist order? What planet are we on?"
Comments closed November 08, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
An excellent move. IRG (Iranian Revolutionary Guard) -the other group sanctioned - are moving Iran's covert bomb program, imprisoning & hanging dissidents, homosexuals, feminists, and religious moderates.
Quds Force has been Iran's tool for terror outside Iran's borders. Murdering dissidents abroad, working with other terrorist groups, arming Hez, and complicit in the deaths of almost 300 Coalition troops in Iraq designated by the UN as the Official Occupying Power.
We have enough on Iran on the use of Iranian EFPs and the kidnapping and killing of 5 US soldiers to declare war on them (or the UN-legal "Authorization of Police Action by a State to Return an Area to Peace").
Sanctions this harsh are 2 levels below real war with them. Next up would be us emulating Quds in reprisals using Spec Ops & Iranian proxies to blow up some IRG or Mullahs.
Posted by Chris Ford | October 25, 2007 2:43 PM