I was hoping Dave Berri's Eastern Conference forecast would contain some crazy counterintuitive predictions we could hold him to, but Boston #1, Chicago #2, followed by Detroit and Cleveland closely matched for third and fourth best teams seems pretty sensible. I'm glad, however, to see yet another person predicting that the Wizards will miss the playoffs. I was getting frustrated with this one and done business, but now that everyone's saying it's a non-playoff team, making the playoffs and losing in six will feel somewhat satisfying again.
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Tragically Banal
29 Oct 2007 03:20 pm
Comments (24)
And that might get Isiah Thomas into the playoffs (and probably keep his job).
Wonderful ...
Banal is right. A snapshot of Berri's reasoning is as follows:
"These four teams could be just as good as the six teams I just listed. Again, the difference between these teams is fairly small."
That's useless.
Similar to Matthew, with Hollinger and now Berri predicting that the Nets will finish out of the playoffs, another second round exit seems like it could be good.
Of course, Charles Barkley is predicting the Nets will go to the Finals, so who knows.
BTW, we ought to have a thread with the official Yglesias predictions - not to keep Yglesias honest, but so we know the thread Petey will post his predicition for the Powder Blues on. That way, come March when the Nuggets are still fighting for the 8th spot in the West, Petey won't be able to fool us by saying that he always knew they'd be average.
His lower predictions just show again that you have to be a remarkably bad team not to make the playoffs in the NBA. He has 10 teams that are basically on the bubble and may or may not make it.
Here's a suggestion, cut the number of teams that make the playoffs and play the games on consecutive days of the week.
picking the celts before we have a clear idea of how the 1 position is going to play out: well, it's not something i'd do, and i don't understand why so many others are willing to.
Chicago as number 2? A stretch if you ask me. However, that makes a lot more sense than ranking the Bucks last!!??!! I will admit bias as a Milwaukee native, but the Bucks are seiously underrated this year. Mo Williams and Redd holding up the backcourt along with one of the deepest front courts in the NBA is a force to be reckoned with methinks. The Bucks are healthy this year (knock on wood) and are planning on running many more plays for Bogut. Milwaukee is a far superior to Indiana, Atlanta, New York, Miami and basically everyone outside the central with the exception of Boston and possibly New Jersey. These picks are nothing less than insulting. However, I imagine I'll have the last laugh when the Bucks claim the #3 playoff spot and finish second in the central behind Cleveland.
When talking about the Bulls, I think you have to divide the discussion into regular season and playoffs. I could see Chicago having one of the best, if not the best, records in the East...but they'll also get knocked out in the 1st or second round.
To me, the Bulls are the reincarnation of the Alonzo/Tim Hardaway/Pat Riley Heat of the 90s. They'll win a bunch of games in the regular season by outworking opponents but when the other teams raise their effort level in the playoffs, the HeatBulls will struggle.
People seem to be taking the Bulls playoff run last year too seriously. They swept a very unsettled and badly matched Heat team in the 1st round, then Detroit dominated Chicago for 3 straight games before visibly relaxing and letting the Bulls win two, before closing out the series in 6.
The Bulls just aren't that talented. Compare them to the Pistons team that won the title. Billups-then is better than Hinrich-now. Hamilton-then is better then Gordon-now. Ben Wallace-then is better than Ben Wallace-now. Rasheed Wallace-then is better than any Bulls power forward-now. Deng-now is better than Prince-then, but one is his team's star and the other is a role player. The Bulls' bench is more athletic, but the Pistons' bench had more experience and more scoring punch. I don't think being less than that Pistons team is going to get you to the Finals out of the East anymore.
Mike
chicago as number two is no stretch considering they finished with third-best record last year and were hampered by bad luck and the PF rotation of Brown, Allen and Sweetney. More Thomas, Smith, and Noah replacing those three should be a nice improvement, even if they are collectively only average.
bucks as #3 in the conference is blatant homerism--when redd and villaneuva decide to start playing defense, i'll start considering the possibility of the playoffs.
The Celtics are overrated--watching Ray Allen get torched all year, held up only by those rickety ankles, should be painful. Not to mention that 1 situation (why didn't they make a move for Brevin Knight?), the bench situation, or the coach situation.
Underrated are the Nuggets, though. I think they'll win the division.
The Celtics are settled at the 1 -- Rondo's the point guard. He's perfect for them. He can pass, and he won't take any shots away from KG/Allen/Pierce. Perkins at the 5 is the weak link, not Rondo.
The "bench situation" isn't that bad, either. Eddie House for offense, James Posey for defense, Scot Pollard for fouls and funny hair. Glen Davis could contribute, too.
The "coach situation" is a much bigger problem. Doc Rivers is a moron.
The Celtics are settled at the 1 -- Rondo's the point guard. He's perfect for them. He can pass, and he won't take any shots away from KG/Allen/Pierce.
The question is - is Rondo any good? That remains to be seen. I haven't seen the evidence that Rondo's good enough to get to, say, the Conference Finals. Who knows, maybe he is - just saying that I haven't seen it yet.
haven't had a chance to agree with al on a sports matter in a while, so just to show that the old standards still sound good, i'll note, too many steves, that al says it all: we have no idea how good rondo is. he could be fine, he could be a flop under the pressure; certainly picking the celts as the top team in the east before we have any idea which it is seems rather excessive to me (in its own way, it's like the massive number of people - me not included - who conceded the title to shaq-malone-kobe-payton before they'd even shown that their styles could mesh).
What is it about Boston that it is so selfish? Baseball and football #1 and now basketball. And what is more embarrassing it is the home of all those weeny, whiny, effete liberals. Something is not right. Time for those red blooded Americans in the Red States to stand up and be counted and to stop being losers.
Boston is the wildcard here. Putting them at number 1 before we've seen them play a game seems like a stretch. Rondo is weak, and can't shoot to save his life. Smart teams will make him take jump shots. Look for Boston to go for a veteran PG before the trade deadline.
Time for those red blooded Americans in the Red States to stand up and be counted and to stop being losers.
Now that I think about it, what Red State other than Texas has any professional sports franchises that are reliably any good?
what Red State other than Texas has any professional sports franchises that are reliably any good
Are we counting the SEC?
what Red State other than Texas has any professional sports franchises that are reliably any good
Are we counting the SEC?
The question isn't whether Rondo's a great point guard, the question is whether he's so crappy that he keeps Celtics -- probably the most talented team in the conference -- from getting to the Finals. Last year, a team that started Eric Snow at point guard for a good part of the season made the Finals. Rondo is better than Eric Snow. Derek Fisher was the point guard on a team that won 3 titles. Rondo is at least a much better playmaker than Derek Fisher ever was.
We shall see, Bulls detractors, we shall see.
Of course, part of my problem is that, having gone through the Fred Hoiberg/Dickey Simpkins/Dragan Tarlac/Marcus Fizer years, I still take playoff berths as victory.
Now that I think about it, what Red State other than Texas has any professional sports franchises that are reliably any good?
Peyton Manning, please pick up the white courtesy phone ...
what Red State other than Texas has any professional sports franchises that are reliably any good
Well, sports teams tend to be in urban areas, which are generally in blue states rather than red. But I'll see your Colts and raise you a Phoenix Suns, Cleveland Cavs, Utah Jazz. Also on the baseball side, you've got the Rockies and St Louis Cards.
too many steves, i admire your optimism, and maybe it will prove to be well-founded, but meanwhile you're pinning a lot of hopes on a guy who has started 25 games, averaged 23.5 minutes, and hasn't played a significant minute yet (because the celtics didn't have any significant games last year).
at risk of sounding george karl-like, snow and fisher know and play the game right: if rondo is indeed better than snow or fisher he'll be fine, but i'd actually like to see it on the court before simply handing number one in the east to the celtics....
Duncan signed a two year extension with the Spurs for $11 million under the maximum in a move designed to increase salary cap flexibility for the team going forward.
Good times.
Comments closed November 12, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
Okay, even as a Hawks booster I'm not willing to put them in the top 8. Though he does have lots of qualifiers.
Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | October 29, 2007 3:45 PM