VA Leaning Blue

The latest Washington Post poll of political sentiments in Virginia is almost shockingly favorable for the Democrats. Not only does Mark Warner have a sky-high approval rating and a clear advantage over either of his likely opponents, but the state seems to be leaning toward the Democrats in presidential politics as well:

Long time left things change etc. but Republicans haven't started out on the defensive in Virginia for decades. Since Truman, Virginia has gone Democratic exactly once, in 1964. Democrats who ran competitively in the South like JFK in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1996 still all lost Virginia.

Comments

Apparently, Mr. Warner will be assisted in his campaign by the GOP decision to select their senatorial nominee by a convention, rather then a primary which would probably lessen the chances of Representative Tom Davis getting the nomination. Most observers consider that Davis would be the strongest competitor against Warner.

Posted by SLC | October 15, 2007 9:30 AM

I continue to be surprised that Obama doesn't score higher on the "definite not" end - not because of the black thing, but because of the funny/foreign name thing.

Posted by Tom Scudder | October 15, 2007 9:33 AM

Mitt Romney is really hated in the Old Dominion.

Posted by Rob | October 15, 2007 9:37 AM

Obama has the lowest "definitely would not"? In VIRGINIA?

Posted by Keith | October 15, 2007 10:11 AM

Most observers consider that Davis would be the strongest competitor against Warner.

If the GOP is dumb enough to nominate Jim Gilmore, Warner will probably win the biggest Democratic landslide in the state since Chuck Robb won his first Senate race in 1988. We're talking by 20-25 points and all but a handful of counties. That would probably boost the Dems' presidential ticket and put at least two House seats (Foxx's and Goode's) in play (three if Davis leaves his seat in a failed Senate bid).

Posted by Dave | October 15, 2007 10:21 AM

It would be impressive if Warner's win were so big it helped defeat incumbents in North Carolina. :)

Posted by Brittain33 | October 15, 2007 10:38 AM

It would be impressive if Warner's win were so big it helped defeat incumbents in North Carolina. :)

D'oh! I meant Thelma Drake, not Virginia Foxx. This is what happens when Michael Barone's Almanac is delayed three months.

Posted by Dave | October 15, 2007 11:26 AM

Those number look very, very favorable for Obama. If you add up "Definitely Would" and "Would Consider," he's 5 points ahead of Clinton and Edwards. And his "Definitely Would Not" number is significantly lower than either of theirs as well. Seems to back-up Obama's claims that he has the best shot at bringing Southern red states into play for the Democrats.

Posted by Hatch | October 15, 2007 12:10 PM

Obama has the lowest "definitely would not"? In VIRGINIA?

Virginia's governor in the early 1990s was an African-American Democrat.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | October 15, 2007 2:34 PM