For months now I've been puzzling over the fact that none of the Republican candidates for president could possibly win the nomination. And then it struck me like a bolt of lightning: Brokered convention leads to Jeb Bush nomination.
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A Moment of Clarity
06 Nov 2007 01:00 pm
Comments (59)
If it's a Bush-Clinton race, I'll ..., I'll ..., I'll, oh damn it, I'll probably vote for Clinton.
What peaks my interest is where Bush fits into this?
Doesn't he have a favorite? I know it's not a popular move for him to support someone publicly, but shouldn't he be pulling any moves behind the scenes?
It seems odd that a man supposedly so possessed with his role in history hasn't done anything to anoint a successor.
Bring it On!
You are forgetting the triumphant last minute SURGE of Alan Keyes.
If Jeb Bush does get nominated, the Dems. should make sure to refer to him as "John Ellis Bush" and never Jeb Bush.
The Dems. need to learn the art of defining their opponant and the terms of debate. I know it's trivial, but making sure Bush is seen as "elitist" John Ellis Bush rather than "good ol' boy" Jeb Bush is an important step in the right direction.
How much ya wanna bet in case of a Bush nomination, the Dems. won't do the obvious, though?
BTW ... if JEB is nominated (he's JEB like I'm DAS ... I'm not Das, so he's not Jeb), even if HRC is nominated as well, it'll still indicate a degree of projection on the part of every GoOPer who has ever been all worked up about teh evil Clintons controlling the Dem. party.
This is an excellent ploy to keep the base hysterically afraid. The republicans must be envious.
Considering that GWB got a lot of his early bounce from people confusing him with his father, and that via Atrios GWB has just beaten Nixon with a 50% strongly disapprove -- it is unlikely that even the Republicans will desire to continue to brand themselves with the Bush brand (even though every Republican Executive Branch since 1980 has been a Bush as either a VPotus or Potus.
Frighteningly enough, if the current front runner ends up winning the Presidency will have been controlled by only two immediate families for 24 years – not a healthy sign of American democracy.
Matt,
What are you smoking? Do you have any left? That must be some good sh*t!
Re: "Frighteningly enough, if the current front runner ends up winning the Presidency will have been controlled by only two immediate families for 24 years – not a healthy sign of American democracy."
Why not? I keep hearing people say this would be a bad sign of some sort, but I haven't heard any justifications for it. I mean, its not as if the Clintons are descended from royalty or great wealth.
I think Romney's going to win the thing. He'll get just enough endorsements from social conservative leaders, who will start pushing their message out to local pastors, and he will personally do enough outreach to the large SC churches, that he can win SC. And once he's won IA, NH, and SC, I think it's over.
A Moment of Clarity? Hey! That's the name of my blog. Just click on the name. It's not very good, and I don't update frequently, but certainly the view of a reasonably well-informed college student is as valuable as, oh, I don't know, Jonah Goldberg's.
Sorry, I had to take the opportunity.
Jim W,
Short answer:
There are over 300 million people in America. That the best person for the top job for 6 straight elections happens to come from the same two immediate families (4 different people) is statistically improbable. This suggests that there is something about the candiate's familial connections, rather than their abilities, has an oversized effect on their electoral chances.
You know the fundies are just itching for some kind of Clinton/Bush mathcup.
DAS,
I don't think Jeb Bush is going to be the nominee, for the obvious reason others have pointed out that his last name is Bush -- and the other obvious reason (except to Dems) that 80% of Republicans disagree with Jeb and his brother on Mexican immigration. That said, if he were the nominee, I don't think a Dem calling him John Ellis would hurt him at all politically. I wouldn't be surprised if Dems had called him that already in one of his previous campaigns.
.
This suggests that there is something about the candiate's familial connections, rather than their abilities, has an oversized effect on their electoral chances.
Publicity is really important? This is pretty obvious. We didn't need to see the recent Clinton-Bush run to know this. Its definitely a problem for getting good presidents, but keeping it in the family is not unusually bad in this respect.
Hmm...I guess I could envision a brokered convention (maybe), but why Jeb? Wouldn't/Shouldn't Condi be the choice in that situation?
This is my annual reminder that the VP is not term limited. Which is why I registered bushcheney08.com a few years ago, for just such an eventuality.
If the Democrats also have a brokered convention, it could be a Gore vs. Bush race all over again.
Wouldn't/Shouldn't Condi be the choice in that situation?
Would love to hear the logic behind that theory.
Well could happen. And maybe the Supreme Court would elect a Bush again.
-- and Hillary choses Gore for VP-- and Jeb chooses Chaney for VP-- and Reagan's corpse is reanimated-- and, actually, none of this would surprise me.
Magic Eight Ball says:
"Don't count on it"
Brokered convention -> Cheney. For the good of the nation. Technically speaking, he hasn't been president yet.
I would just like to say that I called this two and a half years ago:
Then, with the Republican field looking like a bit of a sideshow, JEB! will burst onto the scene to rescue his party. He will have escaped a good six months of national scrutiny. He will not have had to spend any money at all on the first half dozen or so primaries. He will be able to attract true independents by declaring that the party machinery was failing to do what was necessary to connect with the American people. He announces just in time to get on most of the Super Tuesday ballots, and staging write-in campaigns in the states where he's missed the deadline. He sweeps the rest of the contests, picks up more delegates when Frist drops out, wins the nomination on the first ballot, then kills and eats John McCain to cap his acceptance speech.
Of course, I do lose some points for including Frist in my prognostication.
I can see a brokered convention happening on the GOP side. They would have to settle it with the field they already have though. I doubt they would reach out for another Bush. That name is toxic.
That's why I'd have to go with Zombie Reagan for President. He'll cut your taxes and eat your brains at the same time.
"You know the fundies are just itching for some kind of Clinton/Bush mathcup."
A mathcup? I'll bet against any Bush in a mathcup.
It is the true mark of the beltway insider, when he starts making idle speculations about brokered conventions.
I second George, above. In a brokered convention, Cheney is the overwhelming favorite to win. He's more authoritarian than Giuliani. He's more corporate than Romney. And he's crazier than Paul, Keyes, and Tancredo combined.
Now that I think about it, it seems that the entire Republican field represents facets of Cheney's personality. Which makes Cheny a unifying force.
Agree with George and jlw - if the door is left open for a Cheney nomination he'll grab it. Remember how he became W's running mate - the opportunity presented itself and he grabbed it. If the opportunity to be president is at all within his grasp, he'll go for it.
So, brokered convention -> Cheney as nominee -> war with Iran, maybe Pakistan & Syria to boot. Then it's all-fear-and-terror all-the-time just like 2001.
I think you underestimate the degree to which Bush has alienated various Republican subgroups -- paleocons and libertarian-leaning Republicans, for a start.
No. More. Bushes.
EVER.
Please, God.
"For months now I've been puzzling over the fact that none of the Republican candidates for president could possibly win the nomination."
Why couldn't Fred "possibly" win the nomination? Or Romney? Yeah, one has low voltage and the other flipflops, but these handicaps aren't crippling. Clinton was caught cheating on his wife and weaseling out of the draft and he went on to get the nomination.
If his last name were anything else, he wouldn't have been Governor of Florida in the first place.
And then an arranged marriage between Chelsea Clinton and George P. Bush, and we can call off these tedious elections forever and be ruled by the glorious Bushton Dynasty.
"This is an excellent ploy to keep the base hysterically afraid. The republicans must be envious."
Nah, they've got Hillary to scare the bezusus out of their base.
I don't quite get the "fear" of Jeb. Whatever "charm" inbreeding has granted the Bushes, it seems to have gone entirely to GW. Jeb always struck me as an obviously mean self-centered asshole (apparently GW is a "less obvious" one to roughly 30% of the current electorate), which, may work for governor but seems a bit of a detriment for a presidential candidate.
Too bad for Jeb, but hid big brother destroyed the Bush brand. I wouldn't lose any sleep over this Matthew.
Speak of the Devil, Matthew. Today Jeb carefully declined to endorse any particular GOP candidate (although he made some mildly positive comments about Romney):
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2007/11/06/jeb-bush-on-romney-s-intellectual-curiosity.aspx . It's quite possible he's angling for the Vice Presidency, but that Deadlocked Convention possibility may have flitted through his mind as well.
It would certainly be interesting to see if, at this point, the voters are willing to touch any member of the Bush family without rubber gloves. Some awfully lousy guys have gotten into high office because, and only because, the good reputation of their relatives rubbed off on them; it's possible that in this case we might end up seeing an instance of NEGATIVE family reputation rubbing off on a candidate.
it's hard to saw what's a better death-match: bush/gore II or bush/clinton II. i think the latter is more symbollic/has more resonance, the former is likely way more relevant to current politics (the latter is so nineties).
as for the bush brand being done, um, unlikely. if nixon could come back, there's likely room in the hearts of certain americans for another bush.
I am utterly confused by Rihilism. Has he actually seen Jeb Bush on TV? Whenever I see him, I am struck by how articulate and intelligent he seems compared to his brother, and by the seeming lack of that frat boy smirkiness that makes GWB so repugnant.
I am not entirely convinced there will be an election. So any fucked up shit short of flat out suspending the election due to a "national emergency" would not surprise me at all.
Well, it looks pretty essential for the Republicans to get Jeb on the ticket somehow. They haven't won the Presidency without a Nixon or Bush on the ticket since 1928.
Oh, and re dynasties: what was the probability that out of the entire country, the best choice for president in 1932 was the nephew-in-law of a past president? And what was the probability that out of the entire country, the best candidate for president in 1968 was the brother of the man who'd been elected eight years prior?
Seems to me few people here would have wished to disqualify FDR or RFK despite being "legacies".
Brokered convention? Won't happen.
1) You'd need at least 3 candidates getting big chunks of delegates. Gramps and McCain are both going to come out of Feb.5 with essentially nothing, so that leaves Rudy, Mitt, and Huck.
2) Huck's problem is that he doesn't have any money, and it doesn't look like he'll win anywhere before Feb.5. In which case it comes down to Rudy and Mitt, and one of them will win.
3) If Huck manages to win some pre-Feb.5 primaries, he'll be the credible evangelical candidate in the race, and Mitt's stock will drop like Enron in 2002. It'll come down to Rudy and Huck, and one of them will win.
Bring it on!
I can see Rudy and Cheney as the ticket. If it's not Rudy and Cheney, it will be because Cheney had Rudy assassinated first.
Then it will be Cheney for President and George Bush as Vice President...
The base would just LOVE that! It would energize them like you wouldn't believe! Fifty million Christians will vote Cheney right in past Hillary like a tidal wave!
Especially if the Iran war is going on at the time...which Hillary can't do anything about except support, which makes her superfluous to the bulk of the voting population...
Hey, you guys wanted Gore, a former VP, to run. So why not Cheney?
I can see this happening - the entire nomination process on the Republican side is just another Karl Rove trick - done from the outside now that he's no longer in the White House!
Do you know where Karl Rove is tonight? Hmmmm?
"Has he actually seen Jeb Bush on TV? Whenever I see him, I am struck by how articulate and intelligent he seems compared to his brother, and by the seeming lack of that frat boy smirkiness that makes GWB so repugnant."
Sorry, I was referring to the "charm" thingy, not the ability to form coherent sentences. Jeb seems genuinely more intellegent than George (I'd venture that all the other siblings have a little more going on upstairs than GW...what's Neil been up to, anyway?) but he still comes across as kinda of an asshole (think low EQ rather than IQ) and not particularly appealling as a presidential candidate.
Oh, and I'm not in any way suggesting that GW isn't a major asshole, but think that he was able to use just enough of that "frat-boy" "appeal" to convince enough people that he wasn't. Not sure what "charm" Jeb is planning to rely on...
Rihilism,
I'd say you are coming across like an asshole now, by calling Jeb Bush one based on zero evidence. What is it he did that makes him an asshole? Try to save poor black kids from failing public schools? If anything, he comes across like a decent, though not especially charismatic man.
No, no. The result of the brokered convention will be the triumphant return of George H.W. Bush! He is tanned, rested, and ready. George is more than eager to reverse the errors of the current president, in both foreign and domestic policy.
Oedipus Moebius!
Jeb would be a fool to run after his brother's freaking disasterous presidency, FDP. if he's smart he'll wait..
in contrast,...hard to imagine after W, that America would ever want another Bush in the WH. what a fiscal, constitutional, foreign diplomatic bonehead
-b
The Republican Savior
They've been agonizing, sort of like Gethsemane, over who would be their savior in 2008, and the Republicans finally decided to keep it simple, and go for max name recognition coming off the starting block, by coming out of their brokered convention with Jesus Christ as their nominee. The absence of an actual person actively running in a traditional campaign might seem that it would be something of a handicap, but this would actually play to the Republican's strength of running candidates who are not fully grounded in the dross of reality, but at least take image-handling well. A candidate who is all icon, and no corporeal reality, would get them past many difficutlties in what would be a tough year if the campaign were allowed to get bogged down in reality.
"I'd say you are coming across like an asshole now..."
I've no problem with that.
"Try to save poor black kids from failing public schools?"
Won't someone please think of the children???!!!
Jeb's crusade to save our poor African American youths and his commitment to insuring voting rights for African Americans certainly explains his popularity among African Americans.
"If anything, he comes across like a decent, though not especially charismatic man."
That was my point (not the decent part). Jeb may have what it takes to be governor of Florida, but, personally, I think think he is charmless and can come across as downright mean.
He is also so forthright he is willing to have the state directly interfer with private matters (Schiavo) for personal political gain. Of course, his commitment to this ideal is limited to scoring points with the supposed "right-to-life" wing rather that actually following through on sending in the state police to fight over the woman's body. Should the left feel relieved that he isn't crazed enough to bring the full brunt of the state government against a single family or should the right be upset that he lacked the courage to follow through?
He's as self-righteous, stubborn, and mean as his brother but without the "awe-shucks" schtick and "endearing" personality. Doesn't seem like the ideal choice to me.
I've been wondering about a brokered convention for the Republicans as well, but Jeb Bush?
If they want to commit political suicide they should just nominate Dick Cheney and get it over with.
"...by coming out of their brokered convention with Jesus Christ as their nominee. "
Other than Romney, the other candidates would object that he's not a natural-born American citizen.
In the dark night of my soul where Cheney gets the nomination, he also finds a way to win. Especially against Sen. Clinton.
Hillary has been trying to puff herself up as a tough hawk, but in a debate against Cheney, who doesn't think she'd be exposed as a naïve girl who shouldn't have the reins of power?
Gov. Jeb Bush sat for a half-hour in-depth interview recently and offered pretty solid advice (from this Republican's perspective) and discussed what conservatives need to do to win elections.
The interview was by Peter Robinson at the Hoover Institution recently. It was video recorded.
You can watch it at this link:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3051605264479740436&hl=en
Comments closed November 20, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
If his last name were anything else, he'd be the unquestioned frontrunner.
Posted by right | November 6, 2007 1:03 PM