« The Weird, Wacky World of Antifeminist Blogging | Main | Beware the Krug-Man »

Pakistan's Interests

09 Nov 2007 05:15 pm

A correspondent directed my attention to the second page of Ann Scott Tyson's Washington Post article on counterterrorism in Pakistan and wondered how long it's going to be before we see a Weekly Standard article about proclaiming General Ashfaq Kiyani to be the Petraeus of Pakistan. There's certainly food for thought here:

Nevertheless, U.S. military officials said that Kiyani, Musharraf's possible replacement as head of the military, is supportive of the counterinsurgency plan in the tribal areas, which he visited within days of assuming his current post last month. Kiyani has also indicated an openness to having the Pakistani military focus on missions other than conventional operations aimed at the threat of India, which senior U.S. officers consider diminished. "He has a different view," said one senior military official. "I'd expect he will step up and be head of the army, and there will be some changes."

This reminds me that Americans -- from journalists to congressmen to senior miltiary officials -- ought to consider adopting a less personality-driven view of how the world works. The fact that a Pakistani general angling for the top spot in Pakistan's all-powerful military tells American military officials that he wants to concentrate less on the top priority of the Pakistani military and more on the top priority of the American military tells us only that General Kiyani understands how to tell people what they want to hear.

Meanwhile, it raises a good issue. When we think about Pakistan's security forces, we think about fighting al-Qaeda. When Pakistanis think about Pakistan's security forces, they think about fighting India. If we want Pakistan to spend less time worrying about India and more time worrying about al-Qaeda, we should be thinking about whether or not there's something we could do on the India front that would make it worth Pakistan's while to worry less about India and more about al-Qaeda.

In general, this is what's really gone awry with the heavily moralized post-9/11 climate in the United States. We spend tons of time worrying about whether or not this or that leader -- Musharraf, Putin, Mubarak, Arafat, Sharon, Khameini, Kim, whatever -- is or is not a "good man," a "moderate," a "man of peace," a "tyrant," a "terrorist," a "pygmy," whatever -- that there's little thought given to the idea that countries have interests, and the United States has interests, and the name of the game is to set priorities and let other countries have their way on their top priorities if they'll let us have our way on our top priorities.

Share This

Comments (87)

This is a sensible suggestion. Not permanent friends or permanent enemies--permanent interests. We've got 'em in Pakistan, and in Iraq.

Pakistan's India problem is only in the heads of the generals of the Pakistani army. Without the so-called Indian threat the Pakistani Army's power will be reduced to nothing.

So, not much can be done about this problem apart from guarantees from us that we will always support military dictatorship in Pakistan. Then they will not have any need to bring up the fear of India to cling to power.

countries have interests, and the United States has interests, and the name of the game is to set priorities and let other countries have their way on their top priorities if they'll let us have our way on our top priorities.

Come-on. You are engaged in pre-9/11 thinking. Don't you know, 9/11 changed everything(TM)? And rendered such concepts as national interests quaint?

We are now involved in an apocolyptic fight with our enemy (identity of enemy subject to change without notice) and such concepts as national interest don't enter into things. All that matters is the interests of those who stand to profit from war, eh?

Well, geez, if "the United States has interests", and will act on those interests regardless of who the leader in charge is, then why's he writing so much about Rudy Giuliani's foreign policy?

After all, "the United States has interests" regardless of whether Rudy or Obama is in charge. So, under Matthew's thinking, we ought to be worrying very little about any foreign policy differences between them. Right?

"we should be thinking about whether or not there's something we could do on the India front that would make it worth Pakistan's while to worry less about India and more about al-Qaeda."

I can see where this line of thinking is going. If only India's would renounce it's claim to Kashmir then Pakistan could focus on al-qaida and all would be well in the subcontinent.

i love the post-9/11 role reversals, where you've got a lefty like MY advocating realpolitik, ignoring whether a leader's a "good man," etc. (and then you've got righties being all aspirational and whatnot, advocating regime change to foster democracy, taking on nation-building, etc.).

Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan have more to do with the decadent state of the military-industrial complex in each nation-state, than they do with the unlikely prospect of India attacking Pakistan.

Pakistan's problems have at their root a national choice to spend the bulk of their country's collective resources on the military, and almost nothing on education.

If the U.S. wanted to be really effective, we would do what the Saudis have done, and spend money on education and schools in Pakistan.

But, that kind of foreign policy would require that leading American foreign policy thinkers could come out of something other than the oil industry or international banking. The U.S. would have a Secretary of State, who had schools named for her, not oil tankers.

True for Pakistan more than, say North Korea, which is driven by an idiosyncratic personality.

The Pakistani establishment has particular views that stay relatively constant (just like the American establishment). Kashmir and hostility to India is the key one, and everything drives off of that.

Which is why the Pak-Chian alliance is so solid --it'S based on a joint hostility towards India, and the Pak establishment knows it needs China.

In contrast, Americans haven't explained to Pakistan how fighting terrorists in Wazirstan, or propping up Karzai, supports their core-interest of fighting India.

Now, you might think this is stupid (and it is) but if the Americans want a Pakistan that is as responsive to American interests as it is to Chinese interest, it has to appeal to the interests of the Pakistani establishment, not hope that a new General will magically love America for no apparent reason..

Pakistan's India problem is only in the heads of the generals of the Pakistani army. Without the so-called Indian threat the Pakistani Army's power will be reduced to nothing.

Pakistan's India problem is that India has fought at least 3 wars with Pakistan, has enough nuclear weapons to annihilate Pakistan, intervened in to break apart the country, forming Bangladesh, refuses to hold a plebiscite that might allow majority-Muslim Kashmir, which should have been a part of Pakistan to begin with, to break away from India, and, is populated with plenty of people, inside and outside of its government, which have never accepted the legitimacy of the creation of Pakistan in the first instance.

Obviously, some people dearly hope that the US leaves Pakistan to India's devices. But Pakistan has legitimate concerns about India's behavior, and given that Pakistan is much more important to us strategically in the post-9/11 era than India is (and India really has noone else to turn to given its concerns about China), perhaps tilting towards Pakistan is a really good idea.

When we think about Pakistan's security forces, we think about fighting al-Qaeda. When Pakistanis think about Pakistan's security forces, they think about fighting India.

Is it really an either/or?

Lots of things have been blowing up in Pakistan over the past several years and it has nothing to do with India.

Even aside from the assassination attempts on Musharraf, and Bhutto's "welcome back" explosion, there has been a spree of suicide (and other) bombings targeting civilians going back years, including a bloody campaign against Shi'ite mosques, as well as reprisals.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=pakistan+suicide+bombing

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&q=pakistan+suicide+bombing+shiite&btnG=Search

It's hard to imagine that average Pakistanis don't want their government's security forces should try to protect them from that stuff in addition to safeguarding them against India.

love the post-9/11 role reversals, where you've got a lefty like MY advocating realpolitik, ignoring whether a leader's a "good man," etc. (and then you've got righties being all aspirational and whatnot, advocating regime change to foster democracy, taking on nation-building, etc.).

It is interesting. Then again, my impression was that the Cold War-era right was opposed to realpolitik--they opposed detente, arms treaties, etc. It was the moderate Nixonian wing of the GOP that practiced realpolitik, and they're all gone now, so all you have is the "Evil Empire" reps vs. the better-learned dems.

But isn't this precisely the purpose of "moral clarity"? You no longer needed to think about realpolitik. You no longer needed to know anything at all, actually, except that We Are Good and They Are Bad, and all that uncomfortable intellectual stuff becomes not something you were too lazy or stupid to learn but devious plots for the innocent laid by immoral liberals .... This was how 9/11 changed everything.

The one thing usually lacking in thinking about any nations interest is that those interests are for the most part inseparable from the domestic political interests of the leaders. Not to be ovelooked also is the personal financial interests of said leaders. Throw in the tendency of the interests of nations inevitably to be seen by the leaders as firstly the interests of the monied elites.

Are Mushrraf's moves good for the nation of Pakistan? What about Ahmadinejad 's. Was Hitler really serving the interests of the German nation?

To pry into this idea of interests of nations idea you have to pry apart the whole notion of nations. Nations strive to be powerfull. The average citizen not so much.

It's been a given since the end of WWII that America is by far the richest and most powerful nation in the world. Let me rephrase that. It has been the American conceit that we are and forever will be the richest and most powerful nation in the world. Since the day WWII ended and we had 45% or world GDP our relative wealth and power has been in decline. The American Greatness movement which has begat the Bush foreign policy should be seen as a reaction against this trend. A fruitless reaction against the trend. A trend that has been strangely fostered by the corporate/economic elites absolute embrace of 'globalization'.

One does not have to be opposed in any way to the emergence of the Chinese economic powerhouse to appreciate that their rise necessarily reduces Americas relative wealth and power.

A frank acknowledgement that Pakistan's continued existence is no particular concern of the United States would be a bracing return to reality for U.S.-Pakistani relations.

At this point, if the U.S. had a competent clandestine service, the best course of action would probably be to work for Indian conquest, and an extinction of Pakistani nuclear capability.

Pakistan with nukes and destroying its own society, by remaining on a permanent war footing, while neglecting to invest in building a civil society or economy, is just creating a promise of future disaster.

Destroy Pakistan and get on with it.

I would not go as far as Bruce. I think that India, rather foolishly, started with a nuclear program, so Pakistan felt forced to follow. I also go impression that making A-bombs is a much more subtle bussiness than one could naively think, and the bombs obtained by India, and particularly by Pakistan, are low-yield crap.

And useful crap even so. A couple years ago India and Pakistan almost got to blows, but they did not, and the politicians on both sides were praised for statementship rather than scolded for cowardness.

Now, if I were the chief economic advisor (or even a minor one) of the Democratic Republic of Congo I would circulate some forged letter and casettes recording to make the impression that Bin-Laden is alive and not he has found shelter with Mau-Mau in Congo. Mau-Mau is one of those bloody rebelious local movement that nobody can eradicate for the last 40 years or so. National pride of the Democratic Republic of Congo (and don't insult tem by mistaking them for Congo Democratic Republic) will not allow them to let us eradicate Mau-Mau, besides, the area also shelters copious amounts of malaria and what not. So they will need to get sufficient equipment, training, discretionary funds for the military, developmental assistance, the works. And the beauty of it all is that it seems that getting rid of Mau-Mau really hard and it will take years and years, punctuated by occasional missive from Bin-Laden broadcasted by al-Jazeera. Soon, a third competing Bin-Laden will appear, then the count will reach 4 dead and 5 alive, and we will have to rethink policies that seem to grant Bin-Laden more lives then we can kill.

Anyway, what kind of idiot in Pakistani Army would actually like to find Bin-Laden?

Pakistan's India problem is that India has fought at least 3 wars with Pakistan,..

Of course India has fought 3 wars with Pakistan. It will fight more if Pakistan attacks again. India has the right to defend itself by whatever means necessary.

At this point, if the U.S. had a competent clandestine service, the best course of action would probably be to work for Indian conquest, and an extinction of Pakistani nuclear capability.

Leaving aside the obvious human rights problems with putting 100 million or so Muslims under control of a population that hates them and is likely to subjugate them, obviously you have not even thought about the possibility of terrorist blowback, have you?

I also go impression that making A-bombs is a much more subtle bussiness than one could naively think, and the bombs obtained by India, and particularly by Pakistan, are low-yield crap.

The yields are comparable to Hiroshima, and India has been able to get above that. Certainly you wouldn't want one of these to explode over Karachi or Mumbai.

Of course India has fought 3 wars with Pakistan. It will fight more if Pakistan attacks again. India has the right to defend itself by whatever means necessary.

"Whatever means necessary"?!? You are comfortable with India nuking Pakistan?

In any event, you ignored the rest of my post-- the 3 wars (not all of which were actually started by Pakistan) aren't the only reason Pakistan has to fear India.

You said a very stupid thing-- that Pakistan's fear of India is entirely phony. Prattling on about India's right to self-defense doesn't really answer that point.

Dilan Esper
Your understanding of the history of wars in the Indian subcontinent is quite skewed. Even the Bangladesh episode can be attributed to India's defense against the millions of refugees pouring into India's eastern states as a result of opression of the Bengalis by the Army from the other part of the country thousands of miles away.

Why would India want to have anything to do with the failed state of Pakistan? You do not understand the place that the Army has in every part of Pakistani life. The army will lose its predominance in Pakistan if it does not continue to raise the bogeyman of Indian threat.

I think we have had this discussion elsewhere as well. Perhaps we can agree to disagree.

Mr. Esper:

Your presentation of Pakistani grievances will find enthusiastic takers (mostly) in the Pakistani establishment, and for good reason. It is of a piece with the selective reading of history that has underwritten the Pakistani army’s adventurism in India (and Pakistan, for that matter).

However, for most of India-Pakistan history since independence, Pakistan has been the anti-status quo power, with most of those wars not due to Indian initiative. The one instance (in 1971) where India went on the offensive was because of the obvious strategic benefit to be had by eliminating the possibility of a two-front war with a nation bent on altering the status quo (as well as the humanitarian implications of the refugee exodus from East Pakistan).

Pakistan’s conduct in recent years—support for insurgencies in Punjab and J&K states, the Kargil invasion, as well as the occasional bomb blast in Indian cities—do nothing to alter the picture of a nation bent on altering the status quo. Indeed, the Pakistani army risked the possibility of a nuclear war in the case of Kargil. This sort of behavior is not consistent with an establishment that has legitimate worries about India’s behavior. Quite the contrary, it is the Indian govt. and its people which have ample reason to worry about the Pakistani govt.’s behavior.

Nonetheless, undoing Partition is simply not on the agenda of the Indian government, whatever the misgivings of some (Indian and non-Indian, btw) about the consequences of founding a country for a religious group. The Indian govt. (and the public at large) would simply like Pakistan to become a ‘normal’ country (whatever its form of govt.), less obsessed with India, no longer as anti-India in its policies.

‘Tilting’ towards Pakistan will rapidly lead to a deep-freeze in Indo-American relations. Such a policy would obviously run contrary to India’s interests, and American help in containing China is not essential to India countering China (the Indian nuclear arsenal was developed with China in mind, and it is more than sufficient).

I worry that such a tilt will likely again encourage the Pakistani Army to engage in reckless conduct. Friends of Pakistan would do well not to encourage the Pakistani Army in its delusions about India and Indian intentions.

Regards,
Kumar

I believe that Diana has the right idea, and only needed to mention that the idea that other countries have interests other than ours is a sure symptom of "moral relativism."

And by the way, piotr, Hiroshima and Nagasaki experienced "low yield crap" in 1945. India has already tested a fusion boosted package of 2-3 times the Nagasaki yield, and all you need for that little trick is about a gram of tritium, which any idiot with a reactor can make.

When things break stuff often goes rattling about. I do not want the thing to be Pakistan and the stuff to be nuclear materials. But Bush still has a year and a half, so we live in an age of miracles and wonders.

The current threat to Pakistan is the Islamic threat; not the Indian one. Kiyani is focusing on the immediate target. MY thinks he is mouthing platitudes to get Western ($) support. If the Islamists are allowed to go unchecked then Pakistan will tear apart and the country will be ripe for the plucking by both the Indians and the Islamists.

I have met several Pakistani Army officers and I have been impressed with all of them to a man.

Your understanding of the history of wars in the Indian subcontinent is quite skewed. Even the Bangladesh episode can be attributed to India's defense against the millions of refugees pouring into India's eastern states as a result of opression of the Bengalis by the Army from the other part of the country thousands of miles away.

Why would India want to have anything to do with the failed state of Pakistan? You do not understand the place that the Army has in every part of Pakistani life. The army will lose its predominance in Pakistan if it does not continue to raise the bogeyman of Indian threat.

I think we have had this discussion elsewhere as well. Perhaps we can agree to disagree.

That isn't really an answer to my points, gregor. Bottom line is you said Pakistan's fears of India are imaginary. In fact, they are quite real. And though I don't deny the military governments play these up, that doesn't mean the populace doesn't feel them. (By the way, Indian rulers play up the threat of Pakistan too.)

And those threats I listed are all real. Saying that India wants no part of Pakistan isn't going to reassure Pakistanis with a bunch of nukes pointed their way.

Your presentation of Pakistani grievances will find enthusiastic takers (mostly) in the Pakistani establishment, and for good reason. It is of a piece with the selective reading of history that has underwritten the Pakistani army’s adventurism in India (and Pakistan, for that matter).

Kumar, I wasn't taking sides in the conflict (though you are correct, I tend to favor Pakistan in the conflict because think India has basically never accepted the legitimacy of the partition and all of its troubles with Pakistan flow from that fact). I was simply rebutting the claim that Pakistan's fears of India were all imagined. They aren't, and even India partisans should recognize this.

However, for most of India-Pakistan history since independence, Pakistan has been the anti-status quo power, with most of those wars not due to Indian initiative. The one instance (in 1971) where India went on the offensive was because of the obvious strategic benefit to be had by eliminating the possibility of a two-front war with a nation bent on altering the status quo (as well as the humanitarian implications of the refugee exodus from East Pakistan).

I am sure that you would view it the same way if Pakistan succeeded in breaking off a piece of India, wouldn't you? Oh, no, that's right, India still thinks Pakistani Kashmir is a part of India. And many India partisans don't accept the partition itself on the ground that it broke a piece of India off of the nation.

Pakistan’s conduct in recent years—support for insurgencies in Punjab and J&K states, the Kargil invasion, as well as the occasional bomb blast in Indian cities—do nothing to alter the picture of a nation bent on altering the status quo.

That's a strange formulation. The status quo is that India was given a province in the partition-- Kashmir-- which should have been part of Pakistan because it was majority Muslim. So the status quo is wrong. I don't blame Pakistan at all for wanting to liberate Kashmiris from their Hindu oppressors.

Indeed, the Pakistani army risked the possibility of a nuclear war in the case of Kargil.

Um, Kumar, the only reason there are nuclear weapons on the subcontinent is because India introduced them. The Pakistani nuclear program was an act of self-defense to ensure that the country wasn't obliterated in the next war. And I don't blame Pakistan at all for threatening to use them; that's classic nuclear deterrence and may keep India at bay.

Nonetheless, undoing Partition is simply not on the agenda of the Indian government, whatever the misgivings of some (Indian and non-Indian, btw) about the consequences of founding a country for a religious group.

With respect, I don't think that's the whole issue that Indians have with partition, though it is certainly part of it. Many Hindu nationalists, for instance, who have no problem with religiously-affiliated states, also have objections to the partition. The original dream of Indian independence was that Hindus would control the entirety of their historic lands, a belief that also feeds Israeli and Chinese territorial expansionism. Pakistan, the creation of which was necessary to protect Muslims from violence and discrimination as a minority in a Hindu state, was a compromise that many Hindus never liked because the "dream" was not fully realized, just as, for instance, Israel did not gain control of Jerusalem. It's a lot more than simply suspicion over Pakistan being a "state for Muslims", though Indian self-conceptions about their state not being simply a "state for Hindus" (despite massive oppression against Muslims in India) certainly plays into, for instance, the decision to continue to oppress the Muslims of Kashmir.

I agree, in one sense, that India wouldn't dare attempt to conquer Pakistan (especially given Pakistan's nukes). But the belief of many Indians that the neighboring state is illegitimate is certainly something that Pakistanis must take into account, because India is, all other things being equal, more likely to engage in hostile acts towards Pakistan when that belief is commonly held.

I worry that such a tilt will likely again encourage the Pakistani Army to engage in reckless conduct. Friends of Pakistan would do well not to encourage the Pakistani Army in its delusions about India and Indian intentions.

My bet is that if India ceded Kashmir to Pakistan or even just permitted the plebiscite that it promised and never held, India would never hear from Pakistan again. All of the Pakistani aggression and terrorism you complain about is over that one issue.

Mr/Ms. Esper,
Please to note a few facts that you have conveniently glossed over:
1. The Pakistani army committed genocide in present day Bangladesh after the elections which Mujib ur Rehman won. The cost of this genocide was about a million-2 million dead *pakistanis*.
2. A direct consequence of genocide was the movement of 10 million or so refugees into India. The only humanitarian and respectable option left for India was to fight the 1971 war.
3. The war was initiated by *Pakistani* bombings of Indian installations in November-December 1971.
4. The Indian army was supported by Bangladeshi civilian populations during the war.

Finally, sure the pakistanis will leave India alone if it cedes J&K-I also have the brooklyn bridge to sell you, for just $1, would you like to buy it?
Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism, and jihadi terror in the region is primarily supported by Pakistan. There is no question of any negotiations on this or any related issue when this situation exists. Also, Pakistan has control over part of Kashmir, and has ceded part of it to China, so the terms for any plebiscite cannot be met since it has violated them.

Mr Yglesias,
It is delusional to think that the Indian govt will make concessions to Pakistan because the US would like to keep its generals happy. The US govt has itself to blame for its lack of policy options, and this failure is not just Mr. Bush's but a cumulative failure of foreign policy over successive administrations. Usually such "concessions" have a direct cost in terms of Indian citizens who become victims of Pakistani sponsored terror. Such attempts will only damage American relations with India.

> My bet is that if India ceded Kashmir to Pakistan > or even just permitted the plebiscite that it
> promised and never held, India would never hear
> from Pakistan again

Its certainly fun to form strong views about
countries you now nothing about. Heck, I indulge
in this pastime as well. But it just so happens
that you don't know what the heck you're talking
about.

Give Eritrea its freedom and Ethiopia and Eritrea
will be best buddies. Heck, they were comrades against Mengistu, how can they not be best buddies? Oh wait, there's Badme.

There's certainly no reason why India and Pakistan
have to be enemies but, either way, Kashmir has
almost nothing to do with it. No more than the
Alamo had to do with the Mexicans losing the American Southwest.


My bet is that if India ceded Kashmir to Pakistan or even just permitted the plebiscite that it promised and never held, India would never hear from Pakistan again. All of the Pakistani aggression and terrorism you complain about is over that one issue.

Delusional fantasy.

Finally, sure the pakistanis will leave India alone if it cedes J&K-I also have the brooklyn bridge to sell you, for just $1, would you like to buy it?

It's a little different, krsa. Kashmir is almost worthless to India. India would never miss it. Holding on to it is pure ego. And if there ever is a nuclear war on the subcontinent, the Indian leaders who refused to pay this relatively small price are going to be remembered as some of history's biggest idiots.

Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism, and jihadi terror in the region is primarily supported by Pakistan.

It is true that Pakistan sponsors terrorism against India. That's really not very illuminating. Pakistan attacks military targets too. The reason is-- wait for it-- they want India to give up Kashmir. In other words, this isn't like nihilistic Al Qaeda terrorism. It also isn't like Palestinian terrorism which demands things that Israel cannot give up, like its existence. Rather, this is classic terrorism as a tactic of the weak to fight against a stronger oppressor. Such terrorism often works-- which is why Northern Ireland was resolved on terms that the IRA could have never gotten 50 years ago from the British. It is why the ANC was able to take control of South Africa and dismatle apartheid.

Beyond terrorism directed against India to get India to give up a province that it should give up and has no good reason to keep, Pakistan's sponsorship of terrorism is, shall we say, far more murky. The ISI, no doubt, has its hands in all sorts of cookie jars. But the anti-American terrorists-- i.e., the people the US should care about, as we have no reason to care whether India gets to hold on to Kashmir-- are in parts of the country that the Pakistani government is unable to control. That's bad and you can make good arguments against Musharraf based on that, but it isn't state sponsorship of terrorism.

There is no question of any negotiations on this or any related issue when this situation exists.

If Britain had felt that way, people would still be being frequently killed at the hands of IRA bombers in London.

"I won't negotiate with terrorists" is, way to often, another way of saying "I will use my opponent's violence as an excuse not to give up something that I don't want to give up but would need to give up to get peace". That is exactly what is happening with India and Pakistan. Everyone knows the conflict ends when India gives up Kashmir. They just don't want to do it. Well, the entirely predictable state of low level hostilities and warfare is the result of short-sighted Indian leadership.

Also, Pakistan has control over part of Kashmir, and has ceded part of it to China, so the terms for any plebiscite cannot be met since it has violated them.

That's wrong. India isn't going to win any plebiscites, so whether or not the Pakistanis hold theirs isn't the point. The reason India doesn't hold the plebiscite is because they know they would lose. If they would win, they would hold it in a minute, to get themselves some needed international legitimacy.

Look, India can light a candle or it can curse the darkness. If it prefers to abet the chaos in Pakistan (which I have a feeling it does, because so many Indians gain some schedenfreude from pointing to the failed state next door), that's its choice. But, as international conflicts go, this is a rather simple one to solve. And since the India has little leverage over the US and Pakistan has a lot, we should favor Pakistan and push India to do the right thing and give up Kashmir.

Delusional fantasy.

Gregor, educate us. What would the Pakistanis do next after they got Kashmir? Invade India? Nuke New Delhi?

Come on, stop giving us simplistic Bush-style "war on terror" crazy talk. Pakistan, just like every other country, has goals. And its conflict with India has a pretty simple goal.

There's certainly no reason why India and Pakistan
have to be enemies but, either way, Kashmir has
almost nothing to do with it. No more than the
Alamo had to do with the Mexicans losing the American Southwest.

Kashmir has everything to do with it. As I indicated above, Pakistan has no designs on conquering India and does not view the creation of India as a mistake. It is India that has residual designs on Pakistan.

I have a feeling a lot of this stuff is just pure projection-- because India has such dishonest and impure motives regarding Pakistan, its fans assume that Pakistan must want to conquer India or something. No, they just want India to give up Kashmir.

I get it. The famous Al transforms into Dilan Esper on matters related to Pakistan.

What a shill for the terrorist state of Pakistan.

What a shill for the terrorist state of Pakistan.

Gregor, Pakistan is not a terrorist state as far as the US is concerned, for the reasons stated above. Its use of terrorism as part of its campaign to liberate the muslims of Kashmir from their Hindu oppressors is no threat to the United States, and therefore shouldn't matter to our policymaking.

In any event, you still have not answered my original argument above-- you claimed that Pakistani fears of India are completely imaginary. I have showed that to be totally wrong. All you did was change the subject.

No you have made claims which are false. You have not shown anything.

A murderer is a murderer whether he kills your mother or your neighbor. A terrorist state is a terrorist state whether we are its targets or some other state is. In any case, Pakistan is not as innocent about the two WTC attacks as you would like others to believe.

Mr. Esper:

You wrote, “…So the status quo is wrong. I don't blame Pakistan at all for wanting to liberate Kashmiris …The Pakistani nuclear program was an act of self-defense … And I don't blame Pakistan at all for threatening to use them; that's classic nuclear deterrence and may keep India at bay”

Initially, you claimed that Pakistan had much to fear from India given that “….India fought three wars with Pakistan…”, among them a war that resulted in the breakup of Pakistan. In response to my argument that it is Pakistan that is the anti-status quo country for the most part, initiating a number of wars (including one that risked a nuclear confrontation), your reply is essentially a (poorly-argued) brief justifying Pakistani attempts to overturn the status-quo! Your partisanship hasn’t served you well here, I think—in your zeal to defend Pakistani govt. behavior, your rejoinder concedes the point I was making earlier. It is the Indian govt., and its people, who have much to fear from the Pakistani army’s adventurism: It was not India that had to be kept at bay in Kargil, it was the Pakistani army.

The rest of your rejoinder does not address the argument at hand. Indeed, I’m no longer certain which claims you hope to advance in much of your rejoinder, other than ‘Pakistan good, India bad’. But I am more than willing to address those claims as well.

Your analysis of the Indian independence movement is, frankly, laughable. The Indian independence movement was both secular and religious (Hindu and Muslim, btw), and most of its major players (Nehru, Gandhi, initially Jinnah etc.) were not originally animated by the desire to restore Hindu “…control…[over] the entirety of their historic lands…,” as you seem to imagine. But, for the sake of argument, let us suppose the Esper-version of the history of Indian independence is correct. Without showing that previous and/or current Indian government policy reflects this alleged historical desire to exercise control over the entire subcontinent, it does nothing to advance your argument that Pakistan has much to fear from an aggressive India.

Much of the rest of your post focuses on the plight of Indian Muslims, both in J&K and other states. It is of course correct that Indian democracy is very much a work-in-progress, with altogether too many flaws. Certainly, far too often, many Muslims are not well-served by the Indian state(s) (e.g., in Gujarat). But your assessment of the plight of Indian Muslims is altogether too pessimistic. One need only look to Indian Muslim participation in electoral politics to see that most Indian Muslims do not agree with your assessment—the Indian state retains its legitimacy for them. Perhaps that will change at some point, but it has not happened yet.

Even in J&K State, riven as it is with an active insurgency and counter-insurgency in the Valley, political rights are greater than in Pakistan-administered Kashmir (PAK) or even in Pakistan proper according to Freedom House (an organization not known as shills for India). It rates J&K as ‘Partly Free’ while PAK and Pakistan are rated ‘Not Free’, and India is rated as ‘Free’ (link: http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=21&year=2007 ).

Moreover, your lack of knowledge of its complicated ethno-religious landscape and politics shows. The Kashmiri political landscape—inside and outside the Valley—is cleaved by a number of factors. Gujjar Muslims in the Valley don’t support secession for the most part, while the opposite is true for urban Sunni Muslims in the Valley. Even in the latter case, urban Sunni Muslims in the northern reaches of the Valley are less likely to be enthusiasts for secession. This is not to mention the Hindus and Sikhs of the Valley, who are against secession. Outside the valley, Muslims of Ladakh, Leh and Kargil don’t support secession for the most part, while the Buddhists and Hindus of Leh and Jammu district respectively are very much anti-secessionist.

Plebiscites ( and the consequent partitions) on the basis of religion will simply will not address this reality in J&K State, and are likely to make things much worse in the state. There are, rightly in my view, no takers for such schemes in the Indian political mainstream: The Indian govt. has an obligation to Indian citizens in J&K State, both to those who are anti-secessionist as well as those who are pro-secessionist, to ensure that partition-like horrors are not re-visited on the state (and we have already come too close to that with the forced migration of the vast majority of Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley).

American pressure will not do much to change India’s moral calculus in J&K State. American interests would best be served by disabusing the Pakistani army of its delusional view of India, not by engaging in apologetics for the Pakistani army. The latter has been tried before, and it has not been all that successful.

Kumar

It's worth pointing out that Dilan Esper is a concern troll and as such will (as can be seen on this very thread) throw out a few smears and then claim to be making a much more reduced point.

Pakistan started the nuclear race on the subcontinent in 1972. India surpassed them with the first underground test in 1974 mostly due to having more resources to pour into the effort.

In particular, Esper works very hard to imply that an Indian invasion of Pakistan is a very real and present danger. There's no evidence that even the Pakistan military believe that...


Its not as if the idea that India wants to undo partition hasn't been put to the test. That's what the National Review crowd screamed when Bangladesh was created, that India was soon going to take
it over.

Anybody want to argue that the Bangladeshi
army is what keeps India from invading
Bangladesh?


> And if there ever is a nuclear war on the
> subcontinent, the Indian leaders who refused
> to pay this relatively small price

This, of course, treats Pakistan as some
monstrous force of Nature with no moral
agency whatsoever. Hence, the logic of deterrence
doesn't exist and it falls to India to do what
it can to avoid this catastrophe. This is an
amusing argument because Pakistan itself has
gone out of its way, especially since 9/11,
to re-assure the world that it is a responsible
player.

Apparently, only the US can afford the luxury of
assuming that the big bad Soviets and "Red China"
were, in fact, deterrable in confrontations
over Cuba, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Taiwan etc.
Even though global thermonuclear annihilation
was at stake.

Dilan does provide a valuable service collecting
all the worthless arguments out there on this
issue and presenting them in one neat package.

Well no shit sherlock the US should do more to end one of the major root causes for Pakistan's instability and Islamic radicalism-- the open conflict with India. Given our massive support for both countries, we really have the potential to move the parties much closer to peace if the Bush administration didn't have its head so far up its ass in Iraq.

A murderer is a murderer whether he kills your mother or your neighbor. A terrorist state is a terrorist state whether we are its targets or some other state is.

Gregor, that is STUPID. It is worth sacrificing American lives and huge amounts of money to save American citizens from terrorist attacks. It isn't worth sacrificing American lives and huge amounts of money to go after terrorists that attack other countries, especially since that sort of encourages them to turn their fire on us.

Your attitude would get tens of thousands of Americans killed over things that don't matter to our national interests at all.

It is the Indian govt., and its people, who have much to fear from the Pakistani army’s adventurism: It was not India that had to be kept at bay in Kargil, it was the Pakistani army.

That's not really my point. You can completely disagree with my belief that America's interests lie with Pakistan, and still understand that as long as the relationship between the two states remains as it is now, Pakistan has plenty to fear from India.

The fact that Pakistan wants India to give up Kashmir doesn't really rebut that point. India has tens if not hundreds of nuclear weapons pointed at Pakistan and the missiles and planes to deliver them. And many Indians do think that Pakistan never should have been created. Therefore, any argument that Pakistan's fears are mythical is a non-starter.

Really, I think you guys need to think about these issues the way an ordinary Pakistani might, rather than assuming that Pakistan accepts the great and benign Indian state.

Your analysis of the Indian independence movement is, frankly, laughable. The Indian independence movement was both secular and religious (Hindu and Muslim, btw), and most of its major players (Nehru, Gandhi, initially Jinnah etc.) were not originally animated by the desire to restore Hindu “…control…[over] the entirety of their historic lands…,” as you seem to imagine.

But that isn't what I said. Obviously priority number 1 was kicking out the British. But beyond that, many Hindus really did want to control the entire Raj for historical and cultural reasons. The creation of Pakistan was a compromise that they really hated, because many of them cared more about controlling all the land than they did about the legitimate claims of Muslims that they would suffer persecution and discrimination in a Hindu-controlled state.

The Kashmiri political landscape—inside and outside the Valley—is cleaved by a number of factors. Gujjar Muslims in the Valley don’t support secession for the most part, while the opposite is true for urban Sunni Muslims in the Valley. Even in the latter case, urban Sunni Muslims in the northern reaches of the Valley are less likely to be enthusiasts for secession. This is not to mention the Hindus and Sikhs of the Valley, who are against secession. Outside the valley, Muslims of Ladakh, Leh and Kargil don’t support secession for the most part, while the Buddhists and Hindus of Leh and Jammu district respectively are very much anti-secessionist.

Kashmir is definitely a polyglot, and there are some sub-regions that might want to remain in India. But again, if India wants to confirm this, just have the plebiscite. Or make an offer to Pakistan to give back the Muslim areas.

You see, at some point, a lot of this devolves into the fact that many Hindus feel that they should have the right to lord over Muslims-- indeed there is some of this behind the rhetoric about secular vs. religious states. A secular state, after all, is defined as one that has religious minorities in it. So having to give up Muslim territory to Pakistan would bruise India's self-image, just as the original creation of Pakistan did.

Plebiscites ( and the consequent partitions) on the basis of religion will simply will not address this reality in J&K State, and are likely to make things much worse in the state.

I want you to remember that you said this the next time that you hear someone in India criticize Musharraf for not being democratic.

More seriously, though, I think a plebiscite would tell us more than it would obscure, wouldn't it? In any event, do you seriously doubt that if India would WIN a plebiscite, it wouldn't hold one?

American interests would best be served by disabusing the Pakistani army of its delusional view of India, not by engaging in apologetics for the Pakistani army. The latter has been tried before, and it has not been all that successful.

Sure it has. Our support for Musharraf has probably kept the subcontinent from devolving back to a state of war since 9/11. In any event, I hate to be cynical about this, but it is in America's interest to support Pakistan in order to facilitate going after Al Qaeda even if that makes life much worse for India. We, after all, need to act in our own best interest, not India's (though actually it would be in India's interest to give up Kashmir).

This, of course, treats Pakistan as some
monstrous force of Nature with no moral
agency whatsoever.

DJ, Pakistan would have plenty to answer for in such a scenario. But I can't stand people who seem to think that it is more important to fix blame for mass homicides than it is to prevent them.

The way to prevent a nuclear war on the subcontinent is for India to buy off Pakistan with Kashmir before some real crazies get in power there. I tend to think that preventing that nuclear war is far more important than being able to blame the Pakistanis for it if it starts. Apparently you don't.

Pakistan started the nuclear race on the subcontinent in 1972. India surpassed them with the first underground test in 1974 mostly due to having more resources to pour into the effort.

Um, Nehru announced the Indian nuclear weapons program in 1946. Intensive development of the device that was tested in 1974 commenced no later than 1967.

What a formulation! That India wants to be a secular state and has been such for decades means that the Hindus want to lord over Muslims!

Muslims have all the rights of citizenship in India.
You have no idea what you are talking about.

As for Dilan Esper's other advice to India: in short, India should give in to Pakistani blackmail and surrender whatever territories that Pakistanis want. What unmitigated nonsense.

"Muslims have all the rights of citizenship in India."

Including the right to be barbequed.

Umm, about US assessments of India's nuclear program over the years:

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB6/index.html

Might shed some reality on this discussion.

---
As for Partition, I refer to a comment on turcopolier.typepad.com, produced here:

On March 6 1940, M.A.Jinnah said

"Two years ago at Simla I said that the democratic parliamentary system of government was unsuited to India. I was condemned everywhere in the Congress press. I was told that I was guilty of disservice to Islam because Islam believes in democracy. So far as I have understood Islam, it does not advocate a democracy which would allow the majority of non-Muslims to decide the fate of the Muslims. We cannot accept a system of government in which the non-Muslims merely by numerical majority would rule and dominate us. "
(end quote)

May I ask why are Hindus of India being blamed today for refusing to submit to the "dictates of Islam" which required Hindus to surrender their numerical majority to 25% Muslims back in the 1930s and 1940s?

Is such a system even sustainable? Could Pakistan sustain the veto of West Pakistani minority over the East Pakistani majority? Is any other religious group today willing to surrender one man one vote and parliamentary democracy today for the sake of maintaining "unity" with and "rights" of a 25% minority of another religious group?

The fact is that the Pakistan-minded always considered themselves imperialists without an empire and have always demanded to wield more power than warranted by their numbers. South Asia and the world does not owe this empire to them. The regions which are modern India today opted out of feeding the Pakistani megalomania in 1947. The regions which are East Pakistan opted out of feeding the Pakistani megalomania in 1971. The West has been feeding the Pakistani megalomania for empire at its own risk for at least 75 years. Don't blame Indians today for not playing along.


In 1942, when Indian National Congress leaders including Gandhi were sent to jail for the Quit Indian movement and Congress asked the British to hand over the national government to M.A.Jinnah and the Muslim League, M.A.Jinnah first said

"If the British Government accepts the solemn recommendation of Mr. Gandhi and by an arrangement hands over the government of the country to the Muslim League, I am sure that under Muslim rule non Muslims would be treated fairly, nay, generously: and further the British will be making full amends to the Muslims by restoring the government of India to them from whom they had taken it."

Some months later M.A.Jinnah said:

"The Congress position has been from the start up to August 8- that the policy and demand for Pakistan is an untruth. In his correspondence with the Viceroy Mr. Gandhi had forgotten to mention this point altogether, and hence he puts this in a post-script. "The Government have evidently ignored or overlooked the very material fact that the Congress by its August resolution asked nothing for itself. All its demands were for the whole people. As you should be aware the Congress was willing and prepared for the Government inviting Quaid-e-Azam Mr. Jinnah to form a National Government subject to such agreed adjustments as may be necessary for the duration of the war, such Government being responsible to a duly elected assembly."

Am I wrong?
This is Mr. Gandhi's language. The whole crux of this proposal is that he wants such a government as will be responsible to a duly elected assembly. I ask you: what is left, if this is carried out?.."

"..We are asked: what is wrong with that? Pakistan is only to be postponed. The answer is that the moment you accept and undertake this position on the basis of Mr. Gandhi's proposal, Pakistan demand is torpedoed by our consent; the framing of a new constitution on the lines suggested by Mr. Gandhi would lead to the bitterest controversies if any such attempt were made- to say nothing about who was to be authorised to frame such a constitution. Therefore the position of the Congress is exactly the same as ever. Only it is put in different words and in a different language but it means Hindu Raj on an Akhand Hindustan basis- a position which we can never accept..."
(end quotes)

In other words, Jinnah wanted that the government of India should not be responsible to elected legislature because elected legislature would contain a majority of Hindus.

Again, given Jinnah's positions against parliamentary democracy as expressed above, can anyone explain why are Indians being blamed today for choosing to become a one-man one-vote parliamentary democracy and letting Jinnah's Pakistan project determine its own destiny ?

India is clearly not interested in war, not even against Pakistan. After all, why should India expend blood, sweat and treasure taking down Pakistan?. If the Americans want to do it, its perfectly fine from an Indian perspective. The US has accomplished more in Afghanistan, than India ever could. And there is every reason for India to ensure that the US finishes the job before getting distracted by Iraq. This leads, quite serendipitously to perhaps the most important role of the Monkey Trap; it's generalization.

Pakistan currently provides the most tempting fruit available for the neighborhood’s newest and largest primate. Pakistan, a nuclear armed "moderate" Islamic state, controlled or influenced by the US a la Egypt or Turkey, and a potential check on Indian, Iranian, Russian and Chinese influence in Central Asia is a tempting ally. It remains to be seen whether or not the Americans have realized that way madness lies. Perhaps, the Americans will be successful. On the other hand, a failing Pakistan is a clear and present danger to the US as it's nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of non-state actors. The temptation to act pre-emptively would be overwhelming.

Then the Monkey Trap would morph into the Gorilla Trap.

Either way, India stands to gain. As it would lock the US into doing precisely what India wants, to clean up the Pakistani mess at their own cost. All in all, India benefits whether America succeeds or fails.

Dilan Esper I tend to think that preventing that nuclear war is far more important than being able to blame the Pakistanis for it if it starts.

By the same token, the US should give into Osama bin Laden's demands before he gets hold of a WMD. It is far more important to prevent mass casualties than it is to be able to blame al Qaeda when it happens.

Arun
Thanks for the link. Clearly Mr. Esper has profusely drunk the kool-aid from the sources described so well in the article.

Mr. Esper:

You equivocate between a strong thesis about Indian intentions (India as the aggressor, fighting three wars with Pakistan), and a weak thesis (Pakistani worries about India aren’t mythical). When the former thesis is falsified by pointing to the actual history of Pakistani Army adventurism, you retreat to the latter thesis.

Even then, your attempt to establish this weaker claim simply gains no traction: Peddling fact-free opinion about the psychology of (most/many/some) Hindus that would likely embarrass even a Pakistani Foreign Office flack will not do. Even if this (rather silly) long-distance psychological speculation about Hindus were on-target, you would need to show that such attitudes have been actually translated into Indian government policy towards Pakistan. You have come nowhere near to establishing that such is the case.

Moreover, throwing in a reference to the Indian nuclear deterrent against Pakistan doesn’t do much to advance your weaker claim, either. It is not India that has used its nuclear weapons as an umbrella under which it carries out insurgencies and terrorist operations in Pakistan: Quite the contrary, of course, it is the Pakistani army that does so, consistent with the thesis that the Pakistani army is destabilizing the subcontinent.

It is true, of course, that the Pakistani people—indeed all those who live in the subcontinent--have much to fear if war (conventional and/or nuclear) breaks out between India and Pakistan. But the instigator of such a war is likely to be Pakistan, not India. The Pakistani people should worry about the effect of the destabilizing policies of their army.

Your ‘solution’ to all this is that India give up J&K State to Pakistan, notwithstanding that even the secessionists don’t wish to be part of Pakistan. However, plebiscites and partitions that will likely result in destroying the rights of minorities are simply not going to have any takers in the Indian political mainstream, inside or outside of J&K State. That political mainstream prefers its democracy to be of the liberal variety.

You are simply not aware of the realities on the ground in J&K. Any conceivable division of the state will likely result in significant population transfer, and the experience of partition—not to mention the recent forced migration of the Kashmiri Pandit community from the Valley—is more than enough to make India wary of this option (rightly so, in my opinion). Plebiscites and partitions can’t be undone.

Instead of addressing this issue, you speculate about the ‘real’ motives of the Indian government, conveniently bypassing the knotty moral issues involved. Even if you were not mistaken in your analysis of Indian govt. motives, need I remind you that analysis of motives is not enough? People, and governments, can do the right thing for the wrong reason and vice versa.

Kumar

Mr. Esper:

I think it makes for an amusing contrast when you strike the pose of an American ‘realist’ on the India-Pakistan issue, given your pleading on behalf of the Pakistani army. Why should an American ‘realist’ care whether the Pakistani army’s behavior is justifiable? Whether the Pakistani army’s behavior is justifiable or otherwise, an American ‘realist’ should support the Pakistani army if it is in America’s interest to do so.

I don’t find your analysis of American interests all that convincing. Once again, you are characteristically mistaken about the relevant history. It wasn’t American acquiescence to Pakistani army interests that has prevented war in the subcontinent since 9/11. I suspect it has rather more to do with perceptions of national interests in New Delhi and Islamabad.

In any case, America used both carrot and stick to try to persuade Pakistan to shut down its terrorist-training camps in PaK (and elsewhere), with varying degrees of success over the years. More importantly, America has encouraged negotiations between India and Pakistan, without acting as an intermediary (as Pakistan had hoped). By encouraging such direct negotiations, the status quo in India’s favor is unlikely to be altered. Implicitly, then, the American govt. has decided that altering the status quo is the riskier alternative, and at least on the issues bedeviling the India-Pakistan relationship has ‘tilted’ toward India.

Finally, would-be ‘realists’ need to keep in mind that the likely effect of encouraging the Pakistani army in its delusions about Indian intentions is more instability in the subcontinent, perhaps even another war. Instability and war in the subcontinent is not a recipe for successfully hunting-down Al-Q. terrorists in Pakistan. Indian and Pakistani national interests must be factored into American foreign policy, ‘realist’ or otherwise.

Kumar

Mr. Esper,

You seem to be implying that Muslims are somehow the victims and the oppressed class in Indian history. Quite the contrary of the historic reality. While most subcontinental Muslims today are the descendants of peasant converts and not the descendents of the old Muslim ruling classes, let's not forget that those Muslim ruling classes, descended from the Persian/Afghan/Moghul invaders, did impose on India almost a thousand years of pillage and tyranny.

Remember the fifth Sikh Guru who was roasted alive on a hot plate? Remember Prithvi Raj Chauhan, last Hindu king of Delhi, whose eyes were burned out with red hot pokers? Remember the shahs of Lucknow who lived in unbelievable decadent luxury while their Hindu subjects were starving to death? Remember the last king of Junagadh who spent vast sums on his pet dogs when his people were dying of hunger and disease? Remember the predatory landlords and usurers were disproportionately likely to be Muslims- betraying the precepts of their own religion. Remember Muhammad of Ghazni who massacred fifty thousand pilgrims at the temple of Somnath. Remember the son of Shivaji whose eyes, tongue, nails were torn out before he was flayed alive by Aurangzeb. Remember Tipu Sultan of Mysore who circumsized whole communities of adult Christian men as part of his Muslim conversion binge. Remember Timurlaine who in the name of Islam built a pyramid of human skulls outside Delhi. Remember how Hindu temples were torn down and mosques built on the ruins, Hindu sacred sculptures defaced, Hindu women raped, Hindu peasants forced into crushing debt slavery to Muslim usurers and landlords.

Let's not forget the record of Pakistan whose cities ran red with Hindu blood during Partition, who massacred three million of its own citizens during the Bangladeshi liberation war, who supported the Taliban and Mujahideen, who executes Hindus and Christians today if they dare to question the divine inspiration of Muhammed.

The formation of Pakistan was a necessary thing, largely because of the bad blood that had been created by the Muslim invasions. But ever since 1947, the bulk of the blame for continuing tensions falls squarely on the shoulders of Pakistan.

And by the way, while India's moral claim to Kashmir is questionable, her legal claim is impeccable. The legal right to dispose of Kashmir belonged to Hari Singh, the last king of Kashmir, who chose to accede to India during the Pakistani invasion. That accession is the basis of the Indian claim to Kashmir. Whether kings have any moral authority is a different question, but certainly he did have the legal authority, which is what we are arguing over here, no?

Mr. Esper,

regarding the Bangladeshi 'intervention to break up Pakistan' as you prefer to call it....

India intervened as a humanitarian gesture to save the people of Bangladesh. Three million of them had already been murdered and many millions more driven out of their country by the Pakistani government. The invasion of Bangladesh was India's finest hour. No thanks to the Nixon administration which wanted to intervene on the side of Pakistan. You're on the same side as Nixon, the butcher of Cambodia, congratulations. The center-left scholar Michael Walzer in his 'Just and Unjust Wars' cites the Indian liberation of Bangladesh as the textbook example of a purely humanitarian intervenion in the post-1945 world.

My concern over this misrepresentation of history is as a Christian convert of Hindu-Indian ancestry, I don't like to see my people defamed.

Most Indian Hindus don't hate Muslims as people. They hate the historical oppression that Muslim ruling classes imposed on the subcontinent and that continues today in Pakistan.

As for Dilan Esper's other advice to India: in short, India should give in to Pakistani blackmail and surrender whatever territories that Pakistanis want. What unmitigated nonsense.

There are two approaches to life. You can worry about saving face or you can worry about saving your life.

When there are nuclear weapons involved, I think the correct choice is obvious.

Finally, would-be ‘realists’ need to keep in mind that the likely effect of encouraging the Pakistani army in its delusions about Indian intentions is more instability in the subcontinent, perhaps even another war. Instability and war in the subcontinent is not a recipe for successfully hunting-down Al-Q. terrorists in Pakistan.

I am not sure whether that is true or false. I do know, however, that keeping the Pakistanis happy is a precondition for hunting them down.

Most Indian Hindus don't hate Muslims as people. They hate the historical oppression that Muslim ruling classes imposed on the subcontinent and that continues today in Pakistan.


So when the Indian Hindus go ballistic every few years and massacre a few thousand Indian Muslims everyone else on the planet (and the unforutunate Muslims) should understand they all brought it on themselves.

However, plebiscites and partitions that will likely result in destroying the rights of minorities are simply not going to have any takers in the Indian political mainstream, inside or outside of J&K State. That political mainstream prefers its democracy to be of the liberal variety.

You are right, Kumar, I think motives are important. I don't deny that India has many excuses to continue to oppress the Muslims of Kashmir. Indeed, I assume they will do so forever, because there's a big ego trip associated with pretending that India is something other than a sectarian Hindu state.

But that doesn't make it the right thing to do.

...pretending that India is something other than a sectarian Hindu state.

There is no pretense. Indian constitution is clear about it. India is constitutionally a secular state. And in practice it is run as a secular state. The facts that three of India's Presidents have been muslims, and that there have been numerous Muslim cabinet ministers in the central government, not to mention the muslim officials at state levels, clearly demonstrate that your statement is uninformed at best. Your obvious prejudices against Hinduism as a religion do not qualify as empirical evidence to support your absurd theses.

There is no pretense. Indian constitution is clear about it. India is constitutionally a secular state. And in practice it is run as a secular state. The facts that three of India's Presidents have been muslims, and that there have been numerous Muslim cabinet ministers in the central government, not to mention the muslim officials at state levels, clearly demonstrate that your statement is uninformed at best. Your obvious prejudices against Hinduism as a religion do not qualify as empirical evidence to support your absurd theses.

Gregor, you are ignoring the rampant discrimination against Muslims in India, the fact that the BJP got elected, the destruction of important Mosques by Hindus wanting to rebuild Hindu temples, and, of course, all of the cultural practices that the government either permits or allows to continue such as bride burning, diseased sacred cows in the midst of large cities, etc.

Look, I understand that the government is officially secular and is pretty careful, in certain ways, to maintain that posture. But the fact is that effectively, India is run in ways that favor and accommodate Hindu practices, including some really bad ones. You certainly wouldn't want to be a Muslim there.

Mr. Esper:

It’s rather obvious that further instability between India and Pakistan (e.g., a state of near-war or war) would be detrimental to American anti-Al Q. efforts in Pakistan. At the least, the Pakistani govt. would likely divert even more troops to confront India (after all, no govt. likes fighting two wars at the same time).

While you prefer to remain (uncharacteristically) agnostic on this point, the American government quite clearly doesn’t share your agnosticism on this matter; hence its encouragement of direct bilateral negotiations between India and Pakistan. If the American govt. thought that only assuaging Pakistan was enough, then it is unlikely that it would pursue a policy of encouraging bilateral negotiations (both the Clinton and Bush-the Younger-administrations, btw), given that such negotiations are likely to preserve the status quo. It is precisely for this reason that the Pakistani govt. hoped that the American govt. would agree to act as an intermediary in negotiations, shifting the balance of power (it hoped) in such negotiations to the Pakistani side.

I am afraid that your ‘American realist’ gambit doesn’t have quite the pay-off you imagined: A ‘realist’ analysis shows that America must find a way to balance both Pakistani and Indian interests.

Your analysis of Indian and Hindu ‘motives’ is juvenile, and it simply reflects your ignorance of both. You continue to use it as a substitute for confronting difficult political and moral issues, dismissing such consideration as “…excuses…” Again, motive and propriety are not straightforwardly connected: Governments can do the right thing for the wrong reasons, so even a non-simplistic analysis of motive is not sufficient.

The political contours of J&K State are not a mystery to those who take the time to learn— there are communities that are mostly secessionist and those that are anti-secessionist, with yet others hedging their bets. More importantly yet, these communities are intertwined on the ground, such that plebiscites and partitions are not likely to result in political arrangements that will genuinely protect minority rights.

Finally, it is of course true that the Indian polity is far from a perfect liberal democracy, but it most assuredly is not a ‘Hindu sectarian’ country in the guise of a liberal democracy. You really need to offer much stronger evidence for such a thesis; a phrase like ‘permits or allows’ doesn’t do the work you think it does. I think that the Indian Muslim community is a better placed to judge on that issue. Again, the strong electoral participation (as well as other indices) of the Indian Muslim community suggests that most Indian Muslims do not agree with your simple-minded assessment of India and most Indian Hindus.

Kumar

Mr. Esper,

That temple was a Hindu temple for thousands of years. Because a bunch of Persians invaded the country and interrupted their orgies of rape and murder to tear it down and build a mosque, doesn't suddenly make the Muslims the victims here. The anti-Muslim pogroms that happened in Gujarat is tragic and the men responsible, all the way to the top, should be tried, convicted and hanged. But how come yo