The latest from Rasmussen has Huckabee ahead in Iowa, and post-debate polling shows that people think Huckabee won the debate. You've still got to assume that the front-loading of the primaries make it impossible for this guy to go anywhere, but he's gaining at an impressive pace.
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Polling Huckabee
29 Nov 2007 02:54 am
Comments (16)
Tangentially, Ramesh had what strikes me as a pretty savvy thought:
I have always thought that Giuliani could not win a two-man primary. I no longer believe that. He could beat Huckabee even in a two-man race. He can root for Huckabee to take out all his stronger competitors.
The potential of Huck taking out Romney isn't important, since Romney has never been Giuliani's biggest threat. But if Huck can take out Thompson and McCain too, then he creates a two man race with Giuliani that Giuliani can actually win.
It's sorta like the potential of Clark in the '04 Democratic race. Everyone knew that Dean couldn't beat Kerry, Edwards, or Gephardt in a two man race. But in December, folks started thinking that Clark could take all the nominatable candidates out of the race and create a two man race with Dean that Dean could actually win.
Not that he's going to be the nominee, but if Huckabee were, I wonder if conservative/populist Dems would like Bob Casey, Jr., Jim Webb, etc. would be tempted to switch to the GOP.
All moot, of course, because no one who's in favor of subsidizing tuition for illegal aliens is going to win the GOP nomination.
We love Mike Huckabee and we believe he can win!
Not that he's going to be the nominee, but if Huckabee were, I wonder if conservative/populist Dems would like Bob Casey, Jr., Jim Webb, etc. would be tempted to switch to the GOP.
I'm going to go with "No."
At any rate, I agree with Petey that the front loading is a feature, not a bug, for Huckabee. Remember how Kerry swept through from nowhere after winning Iowa? Obviously he had more money and organization than Huckabee, but it seems a plausible model for a Huckabee victory.
"Hey, let's switch to the minority party, they nominated this nice folksy guy!"
Fred's fantasies that some deus ex machina is going to save the GOP are truly amazing. They're always just one lucky break away from regaining power, in his world.
Well, if nominee Huckabee were to promise to immediately pull out of Iraq, repeal the Patriot Act, take a rational line towards the Mid East in general, and raise the minimum wage---which he almost certainly won't---I suspect that quite a few commenters on this site might consider supporting him over Hillary...
Guess this blogsite must attract an awful lot of those notorious "conservative/populist" Dems...
Last night, Romney seemed like a used car salesman who would say anything to sell me a lemon. Rudy has a problem in that he used tax money to fund his romps with his mistress. He was also lying in his answer last night.
Huckabee came off as a real, down to earth person last night. He also sounded like he was saying what he feels in his heart. That counts for a lot in my book!
Mike Huckabee will be the next President of the United States. He will easily beat Hillary Clinton.
No offense, but why are evangelical Christians always going on and on about what people "feel in their heart"? To a cynical atheist like me, this always sound kind of embarrassing. Like a bad Hallmark card.
Having said that, I agree that Huckabee is by far the most likable guy on the Republican side. Actually, the only likable guy. Kevin Drum predicted months ago that the lesson in this election cycle will be that money doesn't matter that much in the primaries. Atrios has repeatedly predicted that none of the top three (Giuliani, Romney, McCain) would win. If Huckabee gets the nomination, those guys will look like prophets.
Why has likable equated to "best president?" Huckabee may have given feel-good answers, but has he given hard answers that shows experience beyond social issues? For example, what is this about "repeal the tax code"? Give me a break--it's a crowd-pleaser, but not an answer for how to manage taxes. Life in the white house is about hard choices and managing, not platitudes.
Those who have looked at the data (OpenLeft) say that the 5 day gap between Iowa and NH makes Iowa as important as it could possibly be. NH voters are maximally influenced by Iowa results on the 5th day after, and start to revert to previous preferences after that day.
Let's say Huckabee wins Iowa: 35 Huck, 25 Romn, 11 McC, 10.5 Giul, 8 Paul, 7 Thomp, 2.5 Tanc, 1 other. McCain gets a media boost from his "3rd place" finish and so Rudy, McCain, and Romney equally split the non-Paul, non-Huck vote in NH. Huckabee could win NH with 25%. How does he not win SC after that? He who wins SC will win the nomination. Rudy will pick up lots of delegates on the coasts but ultimately Huckabee wins.
Matt, Matt, Matt...
Stop listening to the guys you lunch with in DC.
They obviously know nothing about politics.
They've been brainwashed by all of the GOP mouthpieces who desperately want this race to boil down to either Rudy or Romney and they are spinning furiously so that those two end up being the only available options.
Why?
Other than the obvious surface differences, there really aren't many real substantive differences. Rudy is GWB on steroids - as many others have noted - and Mitt "Robocandidate" Romney will be anything they want him to be.
Huckabee, on the other hand, is Rove's Frankenstein, as Andrew Sullivan has so aptly described him. He is the Rove's monster and unfortunately for them he is not so easily controlled.
He scares the hell out of them.
The theories about the short calendar hurting Huckabee do not take into consideration the new media that drives so much of our culture.
A stupid guy who makes faces at a camera can become world famous in one day.
A bulldog who hops on a skateboard becomes an instant celebrity.
A huge percentage of Americans listen to a weird guy who sits at a keyboard and sings a weird song about rain in a deep, distinctive voice.
George "Macacca" Allen goes from the frontrunner for the GOP nomination to a fatally wounded Senator.
All of this stuff happens in hours, not days, because of cable tv and our wonderful internets, as videos and messages with these videos bounce from user to user, computer to computer, phone to phone, all around the world.
If Huckabee wins Iowa, everyone in New Hampshire and South Carolina and all of the other states will hear about him and the short time between the primaries will not matter one bit. He will immediately get the kind of notoriety and name recognition that it used to take weeks of campaigning to achieve.
If Huckabee wins Iowa, he will benefit himself and he will become a serious, serious challenger to win the whole thing.
The sooner all of you learned DC pundits realize that fact, the sooner you'll start providing smarter comments.
PS- I am not a Huckabee supporter, contrary to what other posters here have implied. I would never, ever vote for the guy. I am a die-hard Dem. I simply observe and comment.
If he believed in evolution and didn't think the earth was only 6000 yrs old I might could vote for the guy. He listens to 'god'. Look where that got us.
"...what is this about "repeal the tax code"? Give me a break--it's a crowd-pleaser, but not an answer for how to manage taxes.
Posted by Shawn"
Please read and research the FairTax at www.fairtax.org. Not only is it a crowd pleaser, it provides a way to:
1) overhaul how the federal government is funded;
2) eliminate the reasons for U.S. companies to be sending jobs overseas;
3) make the U.S. the most tax advantaged, and attractive, country in which to locate a business;
4) receive tax payments on currently unreported (generally illegally gained) income;
5) eliminate ALL federal tax withholding from paychecks including Social Security and Medicare taxes;
6) saves the general public billions of dollars currently spent having tax returns prepared in an effort to comply with the I.R.S. tax code; and,
7) will allow wage earners to keep more of their paycheck. Any amount one can save/invest is done in a tax free, pre-tax, environment.
You bet it's a crowd pleaser!!!
Now, I ask you, don't you wanna watch Huck on TV, through 2012, with witticisms like this,
"Like my ole Pastor used to tell me, 'When they're kickin' ya in the rear, they're still lettin' ya know you're out front'"
And, Huck's way ahead of the post-debate CNN commentators, like Jeff Toobin, who still thinks that Huck's FairTax is not a real plan that will get rid of theIRS! (What Toobin ought to be questioning is Giuliani's / Forbes's "Flat" tax plan. Giuliani used to know why it was a bad idea - it still is!)
Comments closed December 13, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
"You've still got to assume that the front-loading of the primaries make it impossible for this guy to go anywhere"
Backwards.
Actually, the front-loading of the process provides his very slim chances of actually winning the thing.
If the Party has time to regroup, they'll easily be able to defeat Huckabee. It's his chance to get to 2/5 on momentum before the Party can regroup that is his Hail Mary chance.
Posted by Petey | November 29, 2007 3:07 AM