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"The American People"

15 Nov 2007 07:23 am

David Broder is a prominent newspaper columnist. He also obviously doesn't care for Bill Clinton. And that's what's going to happen now and again -- prominent columnist dislikes prominent politician. But for some reason instead of Broder saying that he, Broder, has some kind of problem with Clinton followed by an explanation of the nature of his beef -- an argument about Bill Clinton -- warns us darkly that "The former president's intervention" on the campaign trail in South Carolina raises "the prospect of a dual presidency" which "will test the tolerance of the American people far more severely than the possibility of the first female president -- or, for that matter, the first black president."

Broder doesn't go on to try to present any research or data to back up that claim. And why should he? After all, in this context "the American people" doesn't refer to the people who live in America, rather it means David Broder or, possibly, Broder plus some of his friends who, acting in their capacity as The Great and the Good, eschew the first person (plural or singular!) and write instead in the voice of "the American people." But the real American people like Bill Clinton, liked him throughout the impeachment farce, liked him throughout the alleged "Clinton fatigue" era, like him today, would have elected him to a third term, etc., etc. etc.

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"But the real American people like Bill Clinton, liked him throughout the impeachment farce, liked him throughout the alleged "Clinton fatigue" era, like him today, would have elected him to a third term, etc., etc. etc."

Are you sure? In 1992, he won only because Perot split the right (the same way Teddy Roosevelt ushered in Wilson). In 1996, against a very weak Republican and a much weaker Perot, he still didn't manage a majority of the vote.

A large part of the Clinton myth is the "master politician" bit. A real master would have won bigger in 1996 against such truly weak competition.

So let me see if I've got this correct:

You support Senator Obama for the nomination, but you're willing to spend most of your time advancing Senator Clinton's agenda since you find that working out the politics of the nomination fight makes your head hurt.

Is that about right?

Thankfully, in about two months, the good Democratic primary voters of IA, NH, NV, and SC - who don't despise politics - are going to select John Edwards to lead the Democratic effort. Then you'll be able to find in the Party's nominee the clarity of purpose that you're currently lacking.

Margaret Carlson makes the point far better than Broder:

Columnist Mark Shields jokes about the prospect of Bill Clinton hanging around the West Wing all day with nothing to do. The more disturbing thought is his hanging around with something TO DO, an actual ``two for the price of one'' in the Oval Office. The person a pillow away doesn't need any actual designation of power when he's already held the exact same job.


Shouldn't We Talk?


A wife succeeding a husband in the White House is a first- in-a-lifetime possibility in America. Shouldn't we at least talk about it?

And Carlson applies the epithet that we'll all be talking about for years to come about Senator Clinton's weird bid for the Presidency:

"Glass Jaw".

Doed Broder complain about Cheney being a dual President>>??

Does he complain about the 4th branch doctrine that seems to follow from Addington's theories??

It is well established that Bill Clinton was and remains very popular. Could he have won by bigger margins? Maybe. But given all the odds he faced (Reagan era, Gingrich contract with America) and scandals surrounding him, it was a miracle he won at all. Clinton is known as a master politician because he had the ability to maneuver himself out of a situation that could have destroyed a lesser pol. He is immensely popular aboard. I lived in Canada for some time, where old Bill is treated like a rock star.

Bill Clinton was a competent, intelligent, and successful President. Just because you think that his wife is not the most qualified candidate for the job does not change that.

re: James Robertson

Yes, we're sure. After all, his VP beat Bush. And Clinton was much more popular in 2000 than Gore was.

One can argue that he only won in 1992 because of Perot's presence, but his win in 1996 was fairly commanding from an Electoral perspective. And typically, the people who point at the popular vote in 1996 are the same people who try to bury the popular vote in 2000. (In neither case is the "popular vote" terribly important.)

His batshit-insane Clinton-hating aside, I'm still amazed by Broder's notion that a woman or black man would "test the tolerance" of the American people.

In his mind, "the American people" is the guy in "American Gothic" painting, minus his wife, sour expression on his face and a pitchfork in hand.

The half of the country that is not male, the third of the country that is not white, and even the sizable portion of white males who are not hostile to women and people of color are not, in his eyes, real Americans.

Matt,

You risk the ire of the American people if you continue to defend the Clintons against reasonable scrutiny. It's the job of journalists like Broder to ask the tough questions that need to be asked. Besides, your blogofascist Bush derangement syndrome makes you too shrill to trust.

John Edwards today criticized the Clinton from a very different perspective than Broder's:

DUBUQUE, Iowa — John Edwards today linked presidential rival Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to a "crowd of corporate Democrats" who have no more interest in changing Washington's culture than Republicans.


Edwards criticized Hillary Clinton's acceptance of donations from special-interest lobbyists and pointedly reminded a regional conference of the United Auto Workers that it was a Democratic White House under Bill Clinton that failed to advance universal health care but delivered what he said were job-jeopardizing trade agreements.


"That's what I mean when I say it's not going to change anything if we trade a crowd of corporate Democrats for corporate Republicans," Edwards said.

...

Edwards also noted that in the early 1990s, when Hillary Clinton as first lady failed in trying to construct a universal health care plan, Democrats controlled the House and Senate as well as the White House.


"We were in charge of every branch of government and those (special-interests) still killed universal health care," he said. "And we didn't get what we needed—universal health care. Man, we got something we didn't need. We got NAFTA. And NAFTA, just to remind you, did not pass and was not pushed by a Republican administration. NAFTA passed in a Democratic administration."

Petey is clearly a 12 year old girl who is in her first presidential election. "John Edwards has nice hair and is standing up for the little people. Yay John!"

Go home Petey; you are naive and frankly a little sad.

Petey:

Uncle.

Guy who thinks the Nuggets and Edwards are...OK.

Petey:

Uncle.

Best,
Guy who thinks the Nuggets and Edwards are...OK.

"Petey is clearly a 12 year old girl"

Stickers and boys and ponies and myspace.com. Yay!

Petey, making the "oneamericacommittee" URL your click-through website raises serious suspicion that you are a hired flack for the Edwards campaign.

You may or may not think Hillary Clinton is the best qualified person to be President. But she is a whip-smart lawyer and a talented and hardworking politician, and a Senator who has won two terms in real honest-to-gosh political campaigns in New York State -- which is one more term than John Edwards ever won. There is a reason she has become the presumptive front-runner in this campaign, and it's not name recognition; John McCain started with name recognition, and he's at 8%. John Edwards ought to have name recognition four years after a VP run, but he's in third and seems to be slipping. He ran a solid campaign early on, but he's having trouble distinguishing himself.

David Broder and the resentful cud-chewers of his lugubrious ilk are no friends of John Edwards or any other Democrat. And the crap claim that Hillary is a danger in the White House because she'd be getting advice from Bill is -- well, like everybody says, an American people that gives Bill Clinton higher approval ratings (65% or so?) than ANY of the current candidates is unlikely to view that as much of a problem. As an Edwards supporter, you are cursed with the problem that there are two other leading Democratic candidates who would also make terrific Presidents of the United States. Learn to enjoy this dilemma, dial back on the vitriol, and help us ensure that whoever takes the nomination will kick the living daylights out of some hapless Republican next November.

"Petey, making the "oneamericacommittee" URL your click-through website raises serious suspicion that you are a hired flack for the Edwards campaign."

Unpaid. Unassociated. Just pimping for the best future for the Democratic Party.

"As an Edwards supporter, you are cursed with the problem that there are two other leading Democratic candidates who would also make terrific Presidents of the United States."

If you think Senator Clinton would make a "terrific President", then you ought to vote for her in the primaries.

I don't think that, so I won't be voting for her.

If the bar is "will she be a better President than Bush", then I think she passes. But some of us have a higher bar when we're choosing the direction of the Democratic Party for the next decade.

"David Broder and the resentful cud-chewers of his lugubrious ilk are no friends of John Edwards or any other Democrat."

Agreed. As stated, Margaret Carlson makes the point far better than Broder.

*Margaret Carlson*, Petey? Clinton's "weird bid"? As someone who's warming to Edwards (or at least his positions) by the day, I have to say that by citing such a laughable (and clearly anti-Democrat) authority and engaging in drive-by put-downs, you're making his campaign look desperate.

If Hillary were to win, the smartest thing she could do with Bill would be to make him Sec. of State. Think he'd be a natural at that job.

In his mind, "the American people" is the guy in "American Gothic" painting, minus his wife, sour expression on his face and a pitchfork in hand.

Actually, that's his daughter. Really.

"you're making his campaign look desperate."

You say desperate, others say flagging.

Desperate, flagging, desperate, flagging. Let's see where we are on January 4th...

(Sung to the tune of...)

Do you really think that taking the Party back from an entrenched band of Beltway careerists supported by K Street dollars is going to look pretty?

Look I wwill make it easy for you Robertson. Perot was the outsider, people who voted for him wanted a change. The social experiment was actually done in 1992 -- when Perot was in the race the first time, Clinton had a small lead, a few percent. When Perot was OUT, Clinton's margin in the polls was commanding, 11 pts. Look it up yourself I know of what I speak. When Perot came back in the race, Clinton's margin decreased again. I know a generation of Repubs have been schooled that Clinton never really won. Get over it, he did, Perot was for people who could not stand Repubs anymore and thought Clinton was too same old same old. But Perot voters would have voted for Clinton if there had been no other choice. The actual data of the real, straight, up or down polls favors my hypothesis, not the suspect, after the fact navel gazing of the Karl Rove's trying to dredge through the detailed polling questions to come up with a narrative that favors them.

Do you really think that taking the Party back from an entrenched band of Beltway careerists supported by K Street dollars is going to look pretty?

You say careerist, some say experienced...

(Couldn't resist. And slightly unfair to Edwards.)

Shorter Robertson: "I fear the Clenis™"

Just because you'll be ridiculed for the rest of your life as a Fuckhead W. Bush sycophant doesn't mean we have to suffer now to salve your conscience.

'You risk the ire of the American people if you continue to defend the Clintons against reasonable scrutiny.'

Oooh, be careful, Matt. You risk the 'ire of the american people' if you defend the Clintons. We sure got us some hysterical Clinton haters out there, don't we? Looks like Hillary is driving the Pundit Class and the wingers a little crazy just by existing.

Unlike, of course, the Poppy-Junior dualism, or the Cheney-Chimperor dualism, which are perfectly okay since, you know, Junior needs Grown-ups to advise his magnificent codpiece.

Every good boy deserves a Daddy bear.

Broderella is one closet case, ain't he?

In his mind, "the American people" is the guy in "American Gothic" painting, minus his wife, sour expression on his face and a pitchfork in hand.

No: Broder's 'American people' equals 'the help'. And he still thinks of Bill Clinton as being of the same class as 'the help', which just won't do.

Here are recent polls about how the public feels towards a "dual presidency":

CNN poll:
If Sen. Clinton wins the Democratic presidential nomination and goes on to win the general election in 2008, 60 percent of Americans believe her husband would have a positive effect on her administration, while 30 percent think it would be negative

Gallup poll:
Americans predict Clinton would be an asset as a presidential spouse. By a better than two-to-one margin, 70% vs. 28%, Americans believe he would be more helpful than harmful to his wife’s presidency.

Can't believe this needs to be explained to a smart guy like Petey, but B.S. like this from prominent Beltway pundits MUST be taken on, and taken down, with extreme prejudice. No matter the effect on the Democratic primary race.

Frankly, MY doesn't do it enough.

How many elections do we have to lose because of these partisan, malicious hacks before we wake up?

I am suprised no one has mentioned the fact that last week, Broder said he would no longer talk about the Clinton's marriage. It was in one of those WaPo chats.

I don't buy the "split the vote" thing. Bush I was unpopular. Period. Perot had no real chance. And so Clinton won. secondharmonic is right.

Nor do I believe that Nader won the 2000 election for Bush (not that he won it in any sense, but...). Gore could have gone for the Naderite vote, but let the Beltway crowd give him the horrible advice of "ignore him and he'll go away" and "don't lend him credibility by engaging him". Look at Gore's popularity now - I don't see the slightest shred of evidence that the Naderites are still out there cursing Gore, except perhaps a few people more committed to the fringe than to any particular political view point (i.e. Paultards).

Is Margaret Carlson still hot for Fred Thompson?

JKc: ouch. Excellent point.

"Can't believe this needs to be explained to a smart guy like Petey, but B.S. like this from prominent Beltway pundits MUST be taken on, and taken down, with extreme prejudice. No matter the effect on the Democratic primary race."

Bullshit. I'll be happy to defend Senator Clinton if I wake up on February 5th to find her the presumptive Democratic nominee.

But it's not February 5th yet. We've got about 80 days now to determine the future of the Democratic Party for the next decade. And if you don't think that takes precedence at the moment, you don't have your priorities straight.

Ignoring the primary fight as much as possible over the next 80 days is Mark Penn's campaign strategy. Folks ought to be figuring out if they stand with him, or if they stand against him.

Uh, A NON, the difference there would be that Perot ran as a centrist, while Nader ran to Gore's left.

What's up with this 'Perot split the right' in 92 thing? I've heard this before - heck old HW Bush said in an interview that Perot stole his re-election...... but I've never bought it.

To accept that Perot stole it, you'd have to believe that all those who voted for Perot would otherwise have voted for HW Bush. More likely, the votes would have been fairly evenly split. I'd even say that more of those votes likely would have gone Clinton's way than HW's since voting for Perot was voting for something different - voting for a change of administration rather than a vote to keep HW in there.

Three recipients of controversial 11th-hour pardons issued by former President Bill Clinton in January 2001 have donated thousands of dollars to the presidential campaign of his wife, Democratic front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., according to campaign finance records examined by ABC News

Is this the kind of shit that folks want to spend 10 months from February to November defending?

And then we can spend the next 4 years bemoaning how the press screwed us?

Perot-elected-Clinton: this is a false, long-ago disproven trope, really an urban legend without any basis in fact. Exit polls after the election, by far the most compelling and statistically significant evidence on this point, showed that at most Perot was a wash, and he may even have helped Poppy slightly.

See http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh062905.shtml (scroll down to "occasional report").

And of course the two elections, merely two snapshots in time, prove less about Clinton's ongoing popularity than job approval numbers, which month to month for the last 5 1/2+ years of his term were the highest of any President since Ike. I'm too lazy to get you a link, but it's all over the web. Try PollingReport.com.

By all means, talk about the 'Bill' situation. But then, doesn't that give everyone a license to talk about Giuliani's horrific personal life of adultery, divorces, transvestism, mob associations, racism? Can we talk about Huckabee's affection for serial killers?

By all means, lay on MacDuff, and damned be he who cries enough.

It seems that those who are most obsessed with Clintons personal lives are all too willing to ignore far more cluttered and less savory.

I think we should really look at Giuliani. Wasn't he boning a mistress in the terrorist command center? So much for integrity. Should we exact a promise from him not to bone his next mistress on the desk in the Oval Office? At least, have him commit publicly to not doing it while tours are on. Or at least, not during tours with underage children?

I have read \that Laura Bush has plan s to run for the Senate after hubby gives up his day job. And from there?
Meantime, it was FDR's wife, Eleanor, who gave us the G.I. Bill--and that was ev en be3tter than the tv remote for our nation.

matthew yes people like Clinton now but he fact is the polls found he'd have lost reelecion in 2000 and he was often unpopular when president- his peronsla raings were attrocious and dragged gore to defeat despite the economy you take a good case and take it too far in this post.

Clinton's favorability ratings, which were lower than his job approval, were used by the media to "prove" that people hated the nasty Clenis.

But even at the height of monica madness they were hardly "atrocious."

data here...

Bill Clinton was a terrific president, and we had 8 years of peace and prosperity during his term.

We have no reason to believe Mrs. Clinton is going to be a good president. Her enthusiastic vote for the War in Iraq and support of Bush's policies, her vote for Kyl/Lieberman and her unwillingness to come out against Bush's authoritarian surveillance culture all bother me. In fact, the last thing we need right now is another corporatist in the White House. I honestly don't see her changing many of George Bush's policies. Even her health care plan seems to be little more than a boon for the corporate health providers and insurance companies.

I'm hoping one of her Democratic opponents for the nomination comes on strong in the coming months. Unlike Mr. Yglesias, I'm not going to indicate my specific preference.

Well, fuck, I might not be The American People, but I sure don't like the idea of a royalist presidency. I didn't like it when it was called "George Bush's son" and I don't like it now that it's called "Bill Clinton's wife" either. Sharing the same last name as a former president doesn't give you a golden ticket to the Oval Office, and it's about time we stopped treating the presidency as a trinket to be passed back and forth between rival families.

As for Clinton herself, everything we've seen of the Clintons indicates that they're a nightmare for liberalism. These are the people who dismantled welfare, who gave us NAFTA, who first started outsourcing torture to favored dictatorships through the CIA, who gave us DOMA and Don't Ask Don't Tell, who did virtually nothing to support Kyoto when it needed it the most.

Bill Clinton's presidency demonstrated an antipathy towards civil liberties, a habit of accumulating executive power, a fealty toward the corporate world and a taste for foreign wars. Are they better than George W. Bush? Yes. Do I trust them to undo the damage of the past seven years? Not a fucking chance.

"Clinton's favorability ratings, which were lower than his job approval, were used by the media to "prove" that people hated the nasty Clenis."

But, of course, the issue here isn't Bill Clinton's favorability ratings.

The issue here is the weird Lurleen Wallace project Mark Penn is trying to enlist the Democratic Party in.

-----

This ain't 1998 anymore folks. You can update your calendars.

I was responding to Edmund, Petey. HAppy for people to hate on the Clintons as much as they want for any reason, just don't like a repeat of the real-time historical revisionism called 1990s journalism.

Petey, making the "oneamericacommittee" URL your click-through website raises serious suspicion that you are a hired flack for the Edwards campaign

No way. Petey's posts represent the sort of quality that you only get when someone is doing the job for free.

Is this the kind of shit that folks want to spend 10 months from February to November defending?

So we let the likelihood of bullshit press coverage dictate who we nominate? That's a fool's path. They'd find bullshit to sling at Edwards. (Already have, in fact -- and I don't relish spending ten months defending his house.) Plus it's conducting politics from a defensive crouch, which I didn't think Edwards supporters generally advocated.

(And yes, this 'pardons for dollars' story qualifies as bullshit coverage -- factually true, I'm sure, and disturbing, but no *more* disturbing than all kinds of stuff Republican candidates have done that didn't and won't get a tenth of the coverage. And we don't, AFAIK, know what actions Hillary took that would qualify as corruption in this instance. It's just a 'whiff' at this stage.)

Candidates connected to prior administrations will always have more mud slung at them, more allegations and insinuations of corruption to fight off. So, what, we avoid all but outsiders for evermore? Meanwhile candidates like Edwards get to claim the moral high ground on policy questions like, e.g., NAFTA and continued war funding, that they were never and are not in a position to vote on. It's easy to stay morally pure that way.

Look, I like his positions more and more. And I realize if he wants to be the nominee, he needs to attack Clinton. But buying into bullshit rightwing double-standards and smear jobs is no way to convince me he's a new kind of Democrat.

And BTW, on the subject of smear jobs: *Lurleen Wallace*? Wow.

Sorry but Petey is a moron and I cannot wait until Edwards is gone and Petey will finally shut up. The clock is ticking old Petey-boy and I think in your heart you know you will lose. So lets start to pipe down ever so slowly until all we hear is a whimper...you will lose like you always do.

Great job as the '04 VP it was really inspiring. Then the uber-authentic granite hard tack to the left. Oh so impressive. Come on he's a joke and you are a joke for being a rabid supporter...

"We are fiighting for the next ten years" blah, blah, blah. Watch your unrealistic dreams die...

The grown-ups are back.

But the real American people like Bill Clinton

Not as much as they like Ron Paul. Just ask one of his supporters.

Man, I wish David Broder would just retire. Just how pompous is it to speak for "the American people"? Especially by an old geezer who has been attending cocktail parties around Washington for 45 years now.

"And yes, this 'pardons for dollars' story qualifies as bullshit coverage -- factually true, I'm sure, and disturbing, but no *more* disturbing than all kinds of stuff Republican candidates have done"

Vote Clinton! She's not any more corrupt than the GOP!

Sounds like a winner to me.

"Look, I like his positions more and more."

Of course, as of the moment, there's little daylight between his positions and Senator Clinton's positions since Mark Penn decided to try to eliminate any issue vulnerabilities while in "primary mode".

The real point, of course, is that John Edwards will continue to hold those positions once we get into "general election mode", while Senator Clinton will rapidly triangulate towards the more Lieberman-esque, middle of the road positions that Mark Penn favors.

The grown-ups are back.

The Clintons are grown ups? Of course, that's also what they said about Bush and Cheney, the grown-ups were back. Great.

So I guess Broder doesn't really mind that Reagan and GWB, aka our first two part-time presidents, were really just figureheads for their vice presidents (or, in GWB's case, a legion of special and foreign interests)?

Nah, of course it doesn't bother him. He supports Bush and the agenda of the insane... and simply makes up the reasoning for it afterward.

Bill Clinton was the only "fiscally conservative" president in the past 50 years. Every "real conservative" in office has gleefully engaged in deficit spending which had been unprecedented (at least until the next conservative president surpassed them).

But of course, as we all know, conservatives are hypocrites. So Clinton's fiscal responsibility was rewarded by constant backbiting and attacks. They spent eight years trying to claim credit for his success... and GWB went and proved exactly what a phenomenal president Clinton was.

After years of GWB's libertarian insanity, American want to feel what it's like to prosper again. The Republican brand has been damaged, hopefully beyond repair. The only value Republicans have is easy identification of who the criminals are: if there is an R in front of their name... better make sure you wallet is still in your pocket. Or that your kid is unmolested. Because if there's anything Republicans love more than larceny, it's pederasty.

"I lived in Canada for some time, where old Bill is treated like a rock star."

you can pretty much take out "Canada" and replace that with any country you can think of, and that'll still be true. and maybe some people are upset by the vanity that implies. but wouldn't it be a nice change to have a public persona out of the white house that the rest of the world appreciates and/or admires? kinda like the opposite of karen hughes or cheney underdressing for that funeral.

"The grown-ups are back."

Funny, the last time we went through one of these was in the summer of 2006 in Connecticut. And in that one, the "grown-ups" LOST.

Funny how primary electorates don't like to nominate candidates who hold the primary electorate in contempt.

Perhaps Senator Clinton will run on a third party America for Clinton ticket, but somehow I'd guess she'd have trouble gaining enough ballot access.

Are you putting Ned Lamont out there? Comical. Case closed.

If Obama had spent his time in senate standing up to Bush half as forcefully as he can ceaselessly bash Clinton, perhaps he wouldn't be such a non-starter in his presidential run.

As the fact stands, he's my senator, and I haven't even seen him display a reason to vote for him again in THAT role. All he seemed to have done was smile a lot and try to be everyone's friend, amid the most corrupt political system ever.

I never heard him denounce the Republican's culture of corruption, I never heard him fight against any of GWB's illegality, and even his claim of "not voting for Iraq" is a politician's dodge... sure, he didn't vote for it, but he didn't vote against it either.

As it stands, Obama has never stood for anything. The only audacity of hope is him hoping if his attacks against Hillary are audacious enough he might be able to back into the nomination. He keeps saying he's "the candidate of hope", but I keep hoping he'll actually take a stand on a position.

All he offers is slick rhetoric, a big smile, and a whole lot of circular talk.

"Are you putting Ned Lamont out there? Comical. Case closed."

Your wing of the Party lost the last contested primary.

And you're going to lose the '08 Presidential primaries for the very same reason: Democratic voters are in a mood to be represented by Democrats.

Mark Penn can identify a million different Microtrends about America. Weirdly, none of those Microtrends concern Democratic primary voters.

Don't worry, though. Senator Clinton will end up as Senate Majority Leader with a big staff for all of her careerists.

And the rest of us will be busy moving America in a progressive direction. It's a win-win situation.

I stand with Petey on much of the main argument -- I'm supporting Edwards in '08 till they they make me stop; I think Hillary Clinton is literally the least amount of improvement we can get by electing a Democrat; and I think the Hillary strategy is to pretend to be more or less like Edwards or Obama for the primaries, but then to swing into triangulation mode the day she has it clinched and to stay that way till she leaves office.

However...this doesn't undo the fact that Broder is completely full of crap about "the deep misgivings the American people have about Bill Clinton", and we need to call the press out about lies even if they apply to candidates we don't support. People are right, Somerby has got old and tiresome with his look-what-they-did-to-Al obsession (it seems the only thing that'll satisfy him is for every liberal pundit to go to Gore's Tennessee home in sackcloth and ashes). But on one point he's sterling: the problem with Bradley's campaign in 2000 was not that he ran against Gore, but that he ran against him using false charges ("Al, you're a big liar") that it was clear the GOP was ginning up to use against him in the general, and liberals never did much of a job rebutting them. The result was, when those charges were repeated all summer and fall, they had a baseline level of acceptance in the electorate ("..even liberal Bill Bradley agrees"). We can't let that happen again.

To repeat: I want Edwards, and I don't want Clinton. But it's possible Hillary will end up the Dem nominee and, even though that's a dispiriting prospect, it will be hugely important that she win rather than one of the stone lunatics on the other side. If we don't want her saddled with the same PR disadvantage Gore faced in 2000, we have to rebut the most ludicrous media/GOP-generated slanders now -- even if they're temporarily helpful to the cause of outr preferred candidate.

"we need to call the press out about lies even if they apply to candidates we don't support."

No. That particular phase begins in the morning of February 6th.

For the 80 days between this moment and February 6th, you oughtn't lift a pinkie finger in defense of the Clintons unless you think that nominating Senator Clinton to be in charge of the Party for the next decade is the right thing to do.

Primaries with genuine choices are very rare beasts. When one is finally within your grasp, don't let it wiggle away while you're busy chasing ephemera.

Although I don't trust Hillary to adequately represent my values, I am increasingly inclined to support her out of sheer spite and schadenfreude. I want to make the heads explode of Broder, all his fucking useless DC insider asshole friends, as well as all the misogynist right-wingnut jackasses.

Fuck them. Fuck them all. I had to put up with Bush for 8 years, they can put up with Hillary for 8 years. And this time if they try that impeachment/witch-hunt shit, she has the ovaries to stuff it right back in their fucking pieholes. Plus she's not likely to do something stupid like walk right into a perjury trap because she can't keep her undies on.

Just great. Now, thanks to pseudonymous in nc I have 'Don't Fear the Clenis' as sung by Blue Oyster Cult running through by brain.

More cowbell!

"Just great. Now, thanks to pseudonymous in nc I have 'Don't Fear the Clenis' as sung by Blue Oyster Cult running through by brain."

Get used to it. It's the song they're going to be mournfully singing in Chapaqua on the morning of February 6th. (Mark Penn has a great bass voice):

Love of two is one
Here but now they're gone
Came the last night of sadness
And it was clear she couldn't go on
Then the door was open and the wind appeared
The candles blew then disappeared

Valentine is done
Here but now they're gone
Bill and Hillary
Are together in eternity...
Bill and Hillary

All our times have come
Here but now they're gone

All our times have come
Here but now they're gone

Can we take up a collection to pay for psychiatric treatment for Broder's severe case of "Clinton Derangement Syndrome"?

There it is Petey! Cut off your nose to spite your face. Screw the party! Me. Me. Me...God all of you guys are so typical it's sick. Thankfully you always lose. That is you get what you deserve.

Keep up the vitriol. I will see you on Feb 5th oh, wait, probably not, you will sulk away back to your incoherent babble hole and probably refuse to lift a finger until you can mount another doomed primary campaign in 2012. The cycle continues...

Pssst. You have to win elections to change things.

(You voted for Nader in 2000 everyone here knows it. Sad.)

Petey, again, I'm on the same side as you. But can you at least address the 2000 case? Was it good for Democrats that Bradley was allowed to slime Gore as a big fat liar with no rebuttal? Was it helpful to defer any defense of Gore until those primaries were decided? Doesn't the fact that an election became close enough to steal almost solely on the basis of this year-long smear campaign trouble you just a little?

Vote Clinton! She's not any more corrupt than the GOP!
Sounds like a winner to me.

It's true, she's not. And as noted, we don't know that she's corrupt *at all* in this instance. What did she do? What arbitrary new rules do you propose to make up -- coincidentally applying in present circumstances only to your own party's front-runner -- governing otherwise-legal campaign contributions by former pardon recipients to family members of pardon granters? Moroever, whether it's "a winner" or not is beside the point since she's not running on an anti-penny-ante-corruption platform. Or rather, it will be beside the point unless the rightwing media (egged on, it would seem, by at least one Edwards supporter) decide to elevate nickle-and-dime crap like this into a Major Story and a reason Clinton Must Be Stopped.

Ideally, sure, she wouldn't have the whiff surrounding her. Ideally Edwards would be braver on gay marriage. Ideally a lot of things about our candidates would be different. But if we're to be guided (as you propose above) by calculations of how the media will likely treat the Democrats' nominee, need I remind you that Edwards is staking out ground which overlaps a great deal with that which Gore and Dean staked out in campaigns past? Need I remind you of the media treatment that won them? Or the smearing Edwards has already received from the press? How much they love to target liberals who are also personally wealthy?

Let's not take our cues from that lot. Don't embrace their bullshit. That way lies defeat. Fight it instead.

Or shorter: I'm with demtom.

Not as much as they like Ron Paul. Just ask one of his supporters.

I would, but I don't feel like getting harangued for an hour or more about black helicopters/gold standard/the Fed/9/11 'truth'/the New World Order/the North American Union.

This is not about Bill Clinton. It is about Hillary. She is powerful. She is extremely intelligent. She is a woman.

Let's not forget that Hillary made Bill Clinton. He would not have been governor, president without Hillary. Now it is her turn.

One more note: This nonsense about her not being koochy koo enough is degrading. I am a professional and when I speak, I don't do the touchy feely thing either. I am damn serious. You want to bring female into it in re feelings, try looking at how the kid turned out. Yep. There is time to be a 'mommy' and a time to be a leader.

Seems to me that Broder (and Sullivan) has some issues.


would broder be happy with a rudy giuliani/ judy nathan co-presidency? how about jeri thompson running the country while fred naps.

Keep fighting the good fight, Petey. I wish more people would see the urgency in avoiding Hillary as the nominee while we still can.

The real problem is that the anti-Hillary progressives are split into Obama and Edwards camps. I'm worried that will be enough to kill both.

Sharing the same last name as a former president doesn't give you a golden ticket to the Oval Office, and it's about time we stopped treating the presidency as a trinket to be passed back and forth between rival families.

I agree that the presidency should not be passed back and forth between families, but really we still have elections in this country. If Hillary gets the nomination, it's because Democratic voters voted for her, not because some back-room deals were cut.

As far as I know, the primary process is not rigged. It is a series of for-real elections. If those who come out to vote in the primaries choose Hillary, then I guess not that many people are concerned about being ruled by the same two families for 20 years.

Petey: well done re: BOC. And now thanks to renato 'More cowbell' will pop into my brain whenever I see Hillary. Some threads just need to be avoided.

As for Edwards, I'm with you. I would vote for my cat before any Republican on earth. But I think Edwards would be very good for this country. Hillary is ok, and she even vacations where I had many a beer in my youth (Skaneateles, NY), but she is third behind the guy with the respectable jump shot.

I have to second demtom, and christmas on this one. The Clintons are not my brand of Democrat, but idiots like Broder need to be shamed into reporting the truth every once in a while.

And Petey, it took 3 years, but I get JRE now. He's actaully learned something since election '04 and he just might be the best chance for the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party to lead again.

Who knew?!?

"You voted for Nader in 2000 everyone here knows it. Sad."

Go fuck yourself. I'd vote for a stuffed ferret in the general election if it ran on the Democratic line.

And FWIW, I was living in an '00 swing state, and believe I was personally able to bring about 100 Nader voters home. And we ended up winning the state by under 2000 votes.

"Thankfully you always lose."

As previously stated, the last contested primary fight took place in the summer of 2006 in Connecticut, and we, the ones who always lose, happened to win that one.

I understand that you Liebercrats have had a nice 15 year run of being in charge of the Party. And I understand that you won't fully come to terms with what is going on in '08 until after it's over.

But we'll be nice to you anyway. There will be no re-education camps for you to attend. You'll just have to remember back into the mists of time why it was, exactly, that you originally got into Democratic politics before you sold out all your principles for a meager few discs of silver.

More "More cowbell"

My, my Petey, got your dander up. There is the passion I was hoping for! Never give up Petey you truly are an inspiration and you will prevail. Never. Never. Never give up.

I guess when I said you always lose I meant Hart, Hart, Brown/Tsongas, Bradley, and now Edwards. You want to revel in your '06 primary victory then go ahead I will just chuckle over here as it didn't accomplish much (shocker). Incidentally, I wanted Lieberman to lose as he is a psycho and Hillary endorsed Ned. Of course that doesn't matter right?

You wil lose Naderite. That is what you do except as you manage to fuck it up for all of us instead of just for your small cadre of nose piercings. Only one candidate was able to navigate through your traps and that one's last name was Clinton.

cool it guys. we're all on the same side. hopefully. . .

I could hardly agree more with Renato's last comment. A great refutation of the 'no family dynasties' rule some would have us impose on this election (again, a rule which just coincidentally would in present circumstances hurt only one candidate). As I've said many times: Even if Senator Clinton wins, the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton pattern will almost certainly end right there. (Who's next: Jenna?) To historians it will seem like nothing but an incongruous blip in the roll of presidents, like Cleveland's nonconsecutive terms. Meanwhile, of course, our present oligarchy of a governing class will remain, a graver potential threat to democracy than anything to do with last names.

That neither Edwards nor Obama is really part of that oligarchy is one of the strongest arguments for either of them. The dilemma for me is that membership in it confers experience, which counts in my book for as much as progressive idealism (of which, BTW, I think Edwards has more than Obama -- though I think the latter is potentially better on foreign policy). It's a real quandary.

I dis Petey, dislike his arrogance and his tactics sometimes, but it's hard not to admire his commitment to moving the Dems in a progressive direction. I'm just not sure a novice like Edwards, even he wins the presidency, can achieve that.

Broder simply makes things up.

Hasn't anyone figured that out over the past twenty-plus years?

He Makes shit up. All the time. This is just one more.

End of story.

Well, the article is not ostensibly about the Clintons. It is about the potential downsides of having a former President as first gentleman.
Of course in this case his name happens to be Clinton and the example he uses against First Spouse influence involves the Clinton health care reform plan, so you can just say that he really means "Clinton Clinton Clinton" when he suggests that it may not be best for a former president to live in the White House as spouse of the President. This will be the same as when you attribute "penis penis penis" as the true meaning whenever anybody says something hawkish or say "n_____, n_____, n_____" whenever anybody says something against interventionist economics. Kepp living in your own falsification-free blog-bubble!

Petey, so now you're with the anti-Lieberman crowd now? Wasn't too long ago you were railing against the evils of "Trippi-ism" and how we should never take on Lieberman because it would do more harm than good.

Someone pointed out here that Steve Sailer was such a nice guy with such reprehensible opinions, while Petey is just such a irritating, obnoxious person who, despite it all, most of us tend to hold the same views with.

What I learned from this comment thread is that...someone should put a limit on how many comments you can post on a thread.

Seriously. And make it work, by looking at the IP address or something.

"Petey" is obviously not a 12-year-old girl, because 12-year-old girls have things to do.

Hell, even I have things to do, compared with Petey.

Stand and deliver, Web Innovators! Deliver us from Petey, who, in prolixity, goes beyond evil and becomes banal.

If I vote for Hillary Clinton, it will be in part because I want Bill Clinton back in the White House. I said it. I think he was a great president, I think he's a great politician, he stood up to the some of the worst crap the Republitards could throw his way, and the country was a hell of a lot better when he left office than when Reagan or Bush I left, or than it will be when this current Chimpresident finally scampers out of the White House. The thought of being able to say The Presidents Clinton or the Clintons or anything like that is thrilling, and, sorry Broder, but my tolerance for incompetent, corrupt, racist, criminal Republitards has been tested and, yes, found very, very wanting!

The real point, of course, is that John Edwards will continue to hold those positions once we get into "general election mode"

How do we know? The last time John Edwards made it to a general election, he ran as a middle-of-the-road DLC moderate.

Usually things that seem mysterious in human conduct, or at least human political conduct, can be understood as bad faith: not saying what you really think, because you don't think it's in your interest to do so. Broder doesn't like the Clintons, but he knows it would seem petty and unseemly to say so, and therefore he tries to base his hostility on something else. It works so poorly in this case because Broder can't articulate what that something else is. He is, after all, moderate-to-conservative, and HRC is by most accounts the most conservative of the three major Democratic candidates...so he can't invoke any of her policy stances. So we're stuck with nonsense.

I don't blame Broder--it's the WaPo's fault for not ordering him, as an employee who is paid to express opinions, to be honest about those opinions...at least honest enough so that they make sense, which at present they don't.

Only one candidate was able to navigate through your traps and that one's last name was Clinton.

Correct about the last name. The first name, however, was Bill. Not Hillary.

By the way, Kimball's opinion (12:43 PM) is one I enthusiastically endorse. Everyone who thinks Republican hatred for the Clintons should encourage me to support another Democratic candidate should go eat dirt.

I agree with Rich's comment above.

If the Republicans hate Hillary so passionately, then she must be doing something right.

Or, maybe we should instead vote for someone that Rethuglicans never vilify... someone undivisive, like Joe Lieberman.

Remember that 'debate' with Cheney back in 2000? *retch puke*

Although I don't trust Hillary to adequately represent my values, I am increasingly inclined to support her out of sheer spite and schadenfreude. I want to make the heads explode of Broder, all his fucking useless DC insider asshole friends, as well as all the misogynist right-wingnut jackasses.

This is the kind of brainless, kneejerk wagon-circling that those right-wingnut jackasses are counting on, which is evidently why their candidates and leading spokespersons continue to focus their attacks on Clinton. It has become obvious to them that every time a conservative criticizes Clinton, she picks up another sack of votes from some petty, stewing, partisan crybabies who are still walking around with sticks up their asses about the right-wing conspiracy and Monicagate.

Hillary Clinton is the most AIPAC-friendly and corporation-friendly candidate in the field. If she is elected, we just get a slightly smarter version of the same Middle East policy Bush has practiced for the past four years. And we get four years of inneffectual, DLC-style "progressive" diddling around the margins of the brutal corporatocratic racket. If those are your preferred politics, then go ahead and vote for Clinton II as payback for what the Republicans did to Clinton I, and to make all those Republican meanies shut up about Bill and Hill. But if those aren't your politics, and you let these right-wing attacks drive you to the Clinton barricades and rosy up your perception of HRC, then you deserve whatever the fuck happens to you and your children over the next four years.

I'm really coming to hate elections. They seem to be occasions when formerly reasonable and insightful individuals turn into stupid, obedient, reactionary partisan lemmings. Opponents of Clinton need to stop playing this Republican game of rushing to her defense and bucking up her candidacy every time they are miffed by a right-wing attack.

yes, Hillary did endorse Lamont, but funny thing there was Bill Clinton in CT speaking on Lieberman's behalf as well, so...who knows how they'd act were Hillary to win the WH?

not sure I understand the ganging up on "Petey" (although what person in their right mind would want to be called 'Petey' instead of Pete or Peter or Pedro, or the Petinator...but I digress), his basic point is more sound than most of those arguing against him. I do take issue with his claim that false smears should be allowed to stand (until after the primary), a candidate who criticizes false smears against any and all makes themself look better to any and all, so its really a win-win.

but can people stop with the "I don't like what you are saying and you support candidate X and therefore everything you say is representative of your candidate and makes them look bad" bullsh#t? this is a childish mentality to have. and its painful to read. nobody commenting on blogs about politics during the middle of your average workday 'represents' any of the candidates.

Shorter Dan Kervick:

The republicans (and Dems) are purposefully attacking Hillary Clinton, because they REALLY want her to win because she's more right-wing than they are.

They're totally inspired by her.

/end dimension bend

**and wouldn't THAT be the ultimate 'vast right-wing conspiracy'??**

brookesfoe - You may or may not think Hillary Clinton is the best qualified person to be President. But she is a whip-smart lawyer and a talented and hardworking politician, and a Senator who has won two terms in real honest-to-gosh political campaigns in New York State -- which is one more term than John Edwards ever won.

I question her "genius" when almost all her appointments from Legal Services Corp head in 1978 to present were essentially given due to her Yale feminista network or her husband's clout. She is high intelligence, but not high enough to prevent her from failing her DC Bar Exam in 1975 and heading off to 2nd choice Arkansas. Her litigation record in court was almost non-existent. She was hired at Rose Law and made a full partner two years later based on her being a rainmaker from her husband being governor.

The only true executive task she was given for which the White House allowed some documentation was her health care effort..which failed.

If they have any other documentation on "Great Things Hillary the Executive Leader" did in Arkansas, the White House - the burden is justly on the Clintons to document those claims.

Edwards is a trial lawyer sleazeball who was told by NC Democrats he would not be reelected based on his unpopularity with voters, but he IS a self-made success.

To be fair to Hillary, she is bright, hardworking, and showed she was not a total no-load in a solid blue state, but her reelection to the Senate was as much a given as Kerry&Kennedy in Mass, Dodd and Lieberman in CT.

******************
The problem Carlson and others refer to - of a way for Bill to get back in power and perhaps use Hillary as at best an enabler and at worst a puppet to get Bill one more shot at steering the nation in critical areas he is passionate about is that it covertly flouts the 22nd Amendment. Not the letter of the law. The spirit.
It comes from Washington, who could have easily won a 3rd term maybe more, and been a lifetime President.

Washington suggested that it was bad to have "lifetime" leaders...that it was as bad as aristocracy, would overwhelm the needed humility of representatives of The People needed to sustain a Republic where the leadership was periodically refreshed by the voters, custom, and statute.

Otherwise, a powerful politician might remain on-scene interminably, and thus abuse his power and the public trust that sent them there.

Washington also hated with a passion the spectre of nepotism, whereupon a powerful man would reward his sons, relatives, even spouse with special favor and privileges.

willysimmons,

I prefer the longer version. But anyway, I apparently failed to make my point clear to you. I certainly don't think Republicans are attacking Clinton because they want her to win the presidency. They are attacking her because they want the Democrats to nominate her, so that they can run against the most easily defeatable of the top three Democratic candidates.

And they know that they can count on lab rats like Matt and r€nato to acquire a more favorable impression of Clinton, simply by attacking her and pushing partisan buttons.

The most impressive thing about Hillary is how disciplined her campaign has been. But in terms of real-world leadership experience and accomplishments, none of the Democratic front runners is in the same zip code as Mitt Romney. He built Bain Capital into a top tier private equity firm, helped Staples grow from 1 store to 1700, turned around the SLC Olympics, and got a revolutionary health care reform passed in a Democratic state. Against that, Dems have a first-term Senator, a former Senator who made his fortune as an ambulance chaser, and Hillary Clinton, a competent second-term Senator.

'I apparently failed to make my point clear to you.'

You had a 'point'?

LOL

My bad.

'so that they can run against the most easily defeatable of the top three Democratic candidates.'

Oh, that was your point?

So what...Edwards?

**because the 'Southern Strategy' will be in full effect if Obama wins the nomination**

Edwards?

And you're going to lose the '08 Presidential primaries for the very same reason: Democratic voters are in a mood to be represented by Democrats.

Mark Penn can identify a million different Microtrends about America. Weirdly, none of those Microtrends concern Democratic primary voters.

OK, petey, I've tossed my share of bombs in your direction, but now I've got two serious questions:

1) What makes you think that HRC won't pull it out?

2) What makes you think Edwards will?

I don't like HRC for all the usual reasons, from dynasticism to class struggle. But it seems to me that the Dem field, like the Dem Party in general, is awfully disappointing. I don't see how anybody can get enthused about HRC or Obama or Edwards. It seems to me that the player with the best machine is likely to win by default, and that'd be HRC. In addition, it seems to me that a large segment of rank-and-file Dems are likely to vote for her as a way of pursuing a larger anti-Republican vendetta -- which actually makes a fair amount of sense, given the last seven years, and given the Republican Party.

I'm a lab rat? A crybaby? A stupid, reactionary partisan?

Fuck you too, asshole. Seriously. With a rusty chainsaw. Sideways.

she picks up another sack of votes from some petty, stewing, partisan crybabies who are still walking around with sticks up their asses about the right-wing conspiracy and Monicagate.

goddamned right I have a stick up my ass about that, just like I have a stick up my ass about this goddamned war, the goddamn Constitution-shredding and the goddamned GOP economic policy which is making Ron Paul's gold standard argument look absolutely prescient.

And when the Democrats crush the GOP in 2009, I'm going to pull that shit-stained stick out of my ass and gleefully beat Republicans about the head and shoulders with it for the next four years, and hopefully four more years after that.

Those fucker have it coming, and they've had it coming for at least the last 12 years.

Hillary Clinton is the most AIPAC-friendly and corporation-friendly candidate in the field.

She may well be, and I am not supporting her. I like Chris Dodd.

But you know what? If Hillary gets nominated, you better believe I am going to support her, for all her faults, because what the GOP is offering is much, much worse than Hillary.

They seem to be occasions when formerly reasonable and insightful individuals turn into stupid, obedient, reactionary partisan lemmings.

Have I told you to go fuck yourself yet?

shorter Dan Kervick: "Let's forgive and forget what the GOP did to Bill, because I can't stand Hillary too!"

By the way, I don't buy into this "Hillary is divisive!" bullshit for one second, and it's disappointing that so many Dems buy into that crap too. Talk about letting the GOP frame the issue.

How do you think Hillary carpetbagged it to New York - having never lived there before 2000 - and won a Senate seat in her very first political race?

She campaigned hard. She won people over, despite all the right-wing noise machine bullshit and misogyny. She fucking crushed the GOP, including Il Douche. And if she gets the nomination, she will win over the voters when the general election comes, that is the ones who aren't bitter woman-hating diehard GOP assholes who are afraid their tiny dicks will shrivel up and fall off if this country is ruled by a woman who is attractive and strong-willed.

You don't have to like Hillary; I don't. I know she will be in the hip pocket of AIPAC. I know that she has taken a lot of money from the insurance lobby and we aren't going to get the kind of single-payer universal health insurance which we so badly need.

But what's the alternative (if she's nominated)? Romney? Giuliani?

Voting ain't therapy. You pays your money and you takes your chances. I guaran-fucking-tee you that whomever the GOP nominates, the Rethuglicans are going to fall in line and support them. There will not be any 3rd party fundamentalist campaign if Giuliani gets the nomination.

Let's hope that Democrats and independents don't fall for some quixotic quest for the perfect candidate after the primaries are done, or we're just going to get more of the same. Didn't we learn anything from 2000?

and got a revolutionary health care reform passed in a Democratic state.

...which he only signed on to because he was forced to, and then he promptly disowned it.

The guy is a shameless opportunist. That is, more shameless than usual for a pol.

As many doubts as I have about Ms. Clinton (which I certainly hope can be assuaged if she is the Democratic nominee) I would love to see her win just so Chelsea could be, as a grown woman, First Daughter. I'd be willing to bet that if this occurs, Chelsea will actually accomplish something (even if symbolic) using her position (such as it is) other than turning up drunk in videos.
It'll be a "Chelsea morning". That said, notice how Ron Paul's ardent and articulate anti War On Iraq stance gave new credibility to his otherwise pretty fringy views. Suddenly they're all worth a new, more tolerant, look.
So gee, if Hilary combined her already acceptable stances (hey, she got elected as Senator from NY) on economic and social issues with an anti-War On Iraq stand, why, that's a sure winner, right?
I guess I don't have a political mind, cause it sure seems obvious to me.

"t seems to me that the player with the best machine is likely to win by default, and that'd be HRC."

If HRC wins Iowa, you are correct.

The Edwards nomination strategy depends on gaining the approval of Iowa Dems to act as a counterbalance to Clinton's institutional strength.

"I guess when I said you always lose I meant Hart, Hart, Brown/Tsongas, Bradley, and now Edwards."

In my reading of Democratic nomination battles of yore, the inheritor of the Hart - Babbit - Tsongas - Bradley wing is Obama.

This is a large part of the reason that if the nomination battle comes down to a Clinton/Obama contest, I think Clinton is likely to roll right over him.

But Edwards is something that hasn't been seen in the Democratic Presidential field since June 5, 1968 - a lefty populist who can win a general election. Edwards ability to simultaneously get to the left of Clinton while maintaining better electability than Clinton creates a challenge that is far more formidable to the institutional candidate than the Hart -Babbit - Tsongas - Bradley challenges.

What do you make of your man getting booed tonight, Petey?

I don't know why he thinks he ought to do Obama's dirty work.

"What do you make of your man getting booed tonight, Petey?"

Both Edwards and Obama had some boos when attacking Clinton.

I thought it was apparent within the first 5 minutes of the debate that Team Clinton had successfully packed the hall.

As Ben Smith noted:

The audience here offers Hillary a real advantage, regular applause for moments right out of her stump speech, grumbles for criticism. But it's like watching the Giants in Giants Stadium, and the players can feel it.

This is one of the perks of being the candidate of the institutional Democratic Party. You have a lot of influence with local parties, and you can get little advantages like this.

As noted above, Edwards is counting on early state voters to counterbalance Clinton's institutional support. If Edwards can close the deal with the good Democrats of Iowa, look for many of Clinton's advantages to dissipate post-Jan 3rd.

-----

All that said, I think Edwards did what he needed to do tonight. He was crisp and clear, and he looked Presidential.

This debate was always going to be the "Clinton Stops the Bleeding" debate, and that's exactly how it's going to get played in the media. No big deal. I think we've all been aware for quite a while now that Clinton is going to enter January 3rd as the national front-runner.

"What do you make of your man getting booed tonight, Petey?"

Check out this video excerpt of the boos and Edwards response.

"A large part of the Clinton myth is the "master politician" bit. A real master would have won bigger in 1996 against such truly weak competition.

Posted by James Robertson"

The '96 vote broke out this way.

Clinton 49.2
Dole 40.7
Perot 8.4
Others 1.7

The 8.5 point win over Dole is a pretty good ass kicking but, what has to be added is that polling demonstrated that Perot voters in '96 took votes away from Clinton and Dole EQUALLY.

Despite right-wing whining to the contrary that's what the research shows.

Perot wasn't a Dole "spoiler."

Inasmuch as the 3rd term is concerned, Clinton left office with an approval rating over 60%. In fact Clinton's approval numbers were healthy and growing as he was being impeached. Had there been a 3rd term possibility I have to wonder whether electing Clinton to a 3rd term by a sizable margin would have been the ultimate backlash against the foolishness of the impeachment.

As noted above, Edwards is counting on early state voters to counterbalance Clinton's institutional support. If Edwards can close the deal with the good Democrats of Iowa, look for many of Clinton's advantages to dissipate post-Jan 3rd.

I have no idea and I don't think there's any way to figure it out. It's just a very frustrating thing to spend one's time thinking about.

_________

Just kidding. I think you're probably right that the audience was largely in the tank for Clinton. That does seem to imply a lot of tangible organizational strength relative to the other candidates. I wouldn't count on that strength disappearing while the primary is still in three-way race mode, which looks likely to persist through Nevada. Similarly, the behavior of Nevada Democrats in an early contest is one of those "known unknowns;" it's not clear whether they will shift as heavily toward momentum candidates as the eastern seaboard states do.

All that aside, Edwards' strategy really surprises me.

The media clearly has not reached the "it's time to take a second look at Edwards" stage of its campaign narrative, nor has Obama collapsed under the weight of his inadequacies. At the same time, an Obama collapse and an Edwards reappraisal both look likely (with Edwards as the heir of the Obama legions).

So, by my lights, Edwards should be resting on his stable base of support and drafting behind Obama's attacks on Clinton, hoping they both do mortal damage. The reverse is happening. Edwards is driving up his negatives with open (and, yes, crisp) hostility to Clinton, and he's allowing Obama to dart out from behind him when the moment suits. And given Edwards' seeming strength in Iowa, I don't understand why he chooses to be so strident; his intensity on the issue invites the youtube moments he suffered tonight.

"That does seem to imply a lot of tangible organizational strength relative to the other candidates. I wouldn't count on that strength disappearing while the primary is still in three-way race mode, which looks likely to persist through Nevada."

I don't think so.

After Iowa, I think we're going to be down to a one candidate race if Clinton wins, or a two candidate race if Edwards or Obama win.

"So, by my lights, Edwards should be resting on his stable base of support and drafting behind Obama's attacks on Clinton, hoping they both do mortal damage. The reverse is happening. Edwards is driving up his negatives with open (and, yes, crisp) hostility to Clinton, and he's allowing Obama to dart out from behind him when the moment suits."

I don't buy the CW that Edwards' attacks on Clinton benefit Obama.

I think that directly challenging Clinton has benefits.

At the end of the day, if you want to defeat a strong pseudo-incumbent, you've got to do that by going straight at the strong pseudo-incumbent. I don't think that trying to stay above the fray and hoping the pseudo-incumbent disappears through some deus ex machina is a reasonable strategy.

If primary voters don't see any real distinctions between the candidates, they're going to go with the one they think they know best.

Also, I've seen no polling evidence that Edwards' willingness to draw distinctions has driven up his negatives, either nationally or in the early states.

As Edwards said in Noam Scheiber's good profile from earlier this week:

"People forget that being positive and optimistic is not inconsistent with being tough."

"After Iowa, I think we're going to be down to a one candidate race if Clinton wins, or a two candidate race if Edwards or Obama win."

Check out this cover of Time from 1984 immediately after Hart beat the national front-runner in an early state.

Note how Glenn, the national second-place candidate, has essentially disappeared from the picture.

That's what will immediately happen to Obama if Edwards wins Iowa. And vice versa.


Comments closed November 29, 2007.

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