Doing nothing about Kosovo independence -- "freezing its status" as they say -- would be the right thing to do, and demonstrate an unusual dose of prudence and good sense on the part of the Bush administration. There's nothing wrong, in my view, with the idea of Kosovo being independent, but obviously Serbs don't like it and it's become an important point of pride and whatnot for Russia. Under the circumstances, a unilateral Western recognition of Kosovo independence would do relatively little to help Kosovars in concrete terms and a great deal to worsen US-Russian relations with potentially bad consequences for our policy in the Caucuses and Iran.
« Actual Crime Control | Main | Short Train »
The Case for Doing Nothing
21 Nov 2007 10:36 am
Comments (19)
He means Caucasus.
"He means Caucasus."
Meh. 43 days 'til Iowa. I think he means Caucuses, even if it seems wildly incomprehensible in context.
-----
Given that Matthew has managed to write regular blog posts about Russia for years now while never saying the slightest cross word about Vladimir Putin or Russian state interests...
And given that Matthew spent time living in Russia...
I think we really have to face up to the fact that we're very likely dealing with a Manchurian Candidate type scenario here.
Yeah Petey, it is weird how if there is a single issue where MY turns into a "don't hurt me!" whining-style lefty, it is US-Russian relations, basically not pissing off Putin. Once in a while we can do things he doesn't like as long as we continue to engage Russia on shared interests, which are rather numerous. Russia may like to be more powerful, but it does have a strong interest in making sure that trans-national non-state forces (terrorism, diseases, refugee flights, human trafficking, illegal drugs, loose nukes, etc.) don't undermine it and state power. In addition, unless Russia becomes a full-blown supporter of terrorists (and not just using stupidly high-profile ways of knocking off Russian dissidents abroad), they have no real way of making life harder for democracies at home by supporting local interests groups that are attracted to the Putin economic/state model (in fact, the biggest potential audience for such a model would be Giuliani types that we be the most likely to want to go to war with Russia). We can help offer them WTO membership, etc. Hell, if even a crazy person like Bush isn't going to go to war with China over something as horrible as its support of Khartoum, I doubt a smarter, more cunning leader like Putin would attempt to go to war with us over Kosovo.
With that said, Nick Kaufman does bring up some interesting points and makes MY's point a lot better than MY did. I don't know enough about the area to know if he's accurate, but it his issues are definitely worth thinking about.
Americans conveniently ignore a lot of the work being done by the UN. The UN has been running Kosovo for 8 years now, and now it looks like the US may choose to freeze this arrangement in place. The work of the UN is taken for granted in many ways, and then regularly bashed by prominent American foreign policy makers.
"I think we really have to face up to the fact that we're very likely dealing with a Manchurian Candidate type scenario here."
...and Petey signs his own death warrant.
"...and whatnot..."
I realize MY might be busy today, but this is particularly lazy and unprofessional. It's, like, you know, um, all that stuff, that, um, you know, stuff and whatnot... are you channeling the McBurgerardler?
MY the realist. Ha.
Anybody who mentions "Greater Albania" loses a letter grade.
Any settlement would prohibit Kosovo from joining with another country; that's been agreed by all parties since 2005. (Well, except the Serbs, who won't agree to anything.) More to the point, the Kosovar Albanians /do not want/ to be part of Albania... they're sort of like someone who's been separated from an abusive spouse, and is still going through the formalities of a divorce: they're just not on the market right now.
More seriously, they have no reason to prefer rule from Tirana to self-rule -- common language notwithstanding.
Doug M.
Have to agree with Doug M. "Greater Albania" is a meme propagated by Serbian and Greek nationalists virulently opposed to Albanians. It has no appeal to actual Albanians.
Kosovars consider themselves to be superior to Albanians from Albania - who they usually consider undeveloped, like country cousins.
The current situation is not a stable one. The economy in Kosovo is in bad shape and will not get better until the issue of independence is resolved and local actors get more political and economic power. You can't just freeze things forever and expect things to work out.
Pissing off Russia at this point is impossible to avoid on this issue.
So the implication is that every time a smaller but better developed region would not join its ethnic brethren because they re richer? Like let's say West and East Germany?
The fact of the matter is that an independent Kossovo is not much richer than Albania in the first place. An independent Kossovo would be a small, land-locked- weak statelet that would have trouble surviving economically and politically on its own. Not to mention that when we are talking about nationalism, rational calculation usually goes by the way side.
But let's accept the premise. Obviously Kossovo would not join Albania immediately. What would happen in 10, 20 or 30 years when Albania inevitably develops economically and it's up to par if not better than Kossovo? What would be the disincentive then?
I would also someone to explain to me the "regional" considerations mentioned in the article.
Part of the reason that the Serbs are upset about Kosovo is their feeling that after all the noble talk about no more ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, they have been ethnically cleansed themselves: their feelings are not totally unfounded.
I can think of an example where a country did not reunite with its ethnic brethren: Moldava, which, contrary to what a lot of people expected in the early 1990s, has not reunited with Romania, even after the conflict which led to the creation of the Trans-Dniester Republic.
Here's a useful question.
How many US citizens GIVE A SHIT about Kosovo, Albania, Serbia, or anything within, say, 500 miles of those regions?
Why, then, is the US government taking a position?
Why, then, did Bill Clinton bomb the crap out of these places?
Read my lips. It's no more our fucking problem than most of the other places the US is itching to mess with for its own commercial or military reasons.
@ Nick M.: Nick, you have this exactly backwards. Albania is already richer than Kosovo.
In the last six or seven years, Albania has seen almost Asian levels of economic growth -- about 6% per year, on average. Foreign investment is pouring in. Tirana is actually nice now.
Meanwhile growth in Kosovo has sputtered. They had ten years of economic contraction in the 1990s, followed by a war and two rounds of ethnic cleansing. In some ways they still haven't recovered. And, of course, the political situation makes it a rather unattractive investment destination.
At this time, pcGDP in Albania is almost 50% higher than in Kosovo -- and that gap is likely to grow. As a result, Kosovars are starting to drift west over the mountains to look for jobs in Albania.
This still doesn't make them want to join Albania, mind. But it does make Albania less enthusiastic about picking up Kosovo.
Nobody can say what might happen in 20 or 30 years. But at this time, "Greater Albania" is something that Serbs (and Greeks) think about, not Albanians.
Doug M.
How many US citizens GIVE A SHIT about Kosovo, Albania, Serbia, or anything within, say, 500 miles of those regions?
Half of Europe is within 500 miles of "those regions".
And, as a general point - if you don't give a shit about people, then you find that, pretty soon, people don't give a shit about you.
In 2001 a lot of people a lot further from New York than 500 miles were on America's side after the 9/11 attacks. There were rallies in support. Offers of help (military and non-military). Maybe we shouldn't have given a shit about you. It's certainly becoming increasingly apparent that you don't give a shit about us.
To get back to the point of the original post: I think Matt is way off base on this.
"A unilateral Western recognition..." Well, wait a second. If twenty countries all recognize Kosovo at once -- including the US, France, Germany, Italy, and bunch of others -- that is, by definition, not unilateral. It's multilateral.
Furthermore, it's an open question whether it will piss Russia off. Remember, Putin has been overtly linking Kosovo to Russia's own "frozen conflicts", especially Abkhazia. Serbia losing Kosovo will be mildly embarrassing, but it will give Russia a somewhat better diplomatic position elsewhere. So one suspects they won't be all that upset -- though they'll have to make a fuss, of course.
Caucasus: dude, how is Russia being annoyed with us going to affect things in the Caucasus? Think carefully before responding, because that one is trickier than it looks.
Doug M.
Doug M: point!
So, let Serbs stew, and offer Putin a green light for Abhazia and South Osetia declaring independence, have Georgians swallow the bitter pill (but with no new facts) and top it with some cordial agreement so Russia will undo all economic sanctions for Georgia.
And liquidate the mockery on the Dniester.
After closing the last territorial conflicts in Europe, we should advocate a serious bout of disarmament, starting from reducing our own military presence to some key airports and hospitals (and a secret concentration camp, this part of the plan will prove that the author is serious about security). Asd someone put it, with no Visigoths, Vandals and Huns in sight (the remanants joined EU anyway), Europe does not need much defending.
Doug M
I am sorry that I had it wrong about Albania's economy, I took Hector's word that Kosovars consider themselves superior to Albanian.
I should also disclose that I am Greek though by no means a nationalist Greek.
Personally, I don't have any problem with Kosovars getting independence. I don't fear a Greater Albania as it won't be a security threat, although it will reconfigure the Balkan security map. All in all, I don't oppose an end state where minorities are incorporated in their home countries (though it needs to be said that things aren't clear-cut in all cases). I am very concerned however with the transition costs that would be entailed. Transition costs being a euphemistic term for very ugly situations....
The point is that you don't have to be a nationalist to be concerned with the repercussions of Kosovar independence and the precedent it will set. The Yugoslavian case is a case of dominos falling from Slovenia to Croatia and then to Bosnia, then to Kossovo before it stopped in Montenegro. All of that while FYRO Macedonia came to the brink of breaking up thanks to the soundings of the Albanian minority.
The fact that the original scenario I posited is not as I conceded the most probable or that it might happen in a span of 20 or 30 years doesn't make me less concerned. Prudent policy looks down the road. And this is why I find the decision to freeze Kossovo's status wise.
In general, policy towards Balkans should reconcile two goals that sometimes can be contradictory: Stability and respect for human rights. Overall, American policy in the Balkans - despite what many of the various Balkans people think - has been rather successful in this regard.
Nick, not many people pay much attention to the Balkans. (You'll notice that Matt seems to have wandered off already.) I'm probably only interested because I lived there for five years.
I agree that US policy has been relatively successful. A lot of bad stuff that could have happened, hasn't. There's also been a smooth handover from the US to the EU in Bosnia (which got zero attention) and some nice cooperation on Kosovo and, to a lesser extent, Macedonia. The Balkans is one region where there's been continuity of policy between the Clinton and Bush administrations, and it shows.
Finally, I agree with the commentor who notes Matt's tender conscience WRT Russia. No offense, Matt, but why should we be so /very/ worried about getting Putin upset? Putting aside that he's neither a democrat, nor friendly, nor well liked around the world, what *practical* good does it do to avoid offending him right now?
Doug M.
Comments closed December 05, 2007.
| 
Heads in the Sand
The even biggest problem with Kossovo's independence is the fact that it might not stay independent for long and provoke more instability in the Balkans.
Kossovar Albanians will in all probability join Albania. This in turn will tempt ethnic Albanians in FYRO Macedonia to aspire to do the same. However, there are ethnic Greeks in Albania who might ask that the same principle applies to them. And then there are Muslims in Greece who would like to join Turkey.
It's not the most probable of scenarios, but one of its permutations might play out and be a source of instability.
Posted by Nick Kaufman | November 21, 2007 10:50 AM