To follow up on yesterday's Vladimir Putin post, this Moscow Times article translates the idea in question as a proposal to create a new post of "National Leader" for Putin to fill, not "Supreme Leader" as I, following Dmitri Simes, had it. It bears mentioning that, when you think about it, if Putin is looking for a model of an authoritarian system that incorporates some pluralism and many democracy-like institutions, Iran is actually a pretty good example of a system that's lasted a good long while now as a neither-fish-now-fowl sort of thing. Late-PRI Mexico might also be a source of inspiration.
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Vladimir Putin, "National Leader"?
09 Nov 2007 03:19 pm
Comments (16)
There's a good German title for national leader: Der Fuhrer; or there's always the Italian, Il Duce.
I'm assuming this is all working under the assumption that Putin wants a new "job" while still retaining a great deal of Political Power.
If so, I think the PRI-Mexico (specially the late period) is inappropriate. The PRI system worked very well at retaining political power -in the party- not so much in the hands of former presidents. Yes, they all hand picked their successors, but after they were out of office they generally yielded little to no political power, in addition to being widely hated by the nation and it was not strange to see the new presidents quickly distancing themselves from their mentors.
I don't think Putin is the kind of guy who would settle for starting a "movement" that retains power even if he personally has a very little share of the power cake.
Not PRI -- more like China. Ex leader continue to have influence long after official retirement.
Same thing may happen in the US, but the ex-leader will have an official title: Husband.
Off the top of my head, there's also the Japanese imperial system set up by Emperor Go-Daigo (I think. It was definitely one of the Go-ones.) wherein the retired emperor was the real power and the sitting emperor mainly fulfilled ceremonial functions.
I third the comments that the PRI analogy here is inapt.
"PRI" and "inspiration" don't belong in the same conceptual framework. Most of our current immigration disaster is rooted in the appalling single-party rule of the PRI, which went on for longer than that of the CP/USSR. If Putin is getting inspiration from anywhere it's probably "The Godfather".
He'll wind up more like King Lear.
I think "Fearless Leader" would be an appropriate title.
Then he could dispatch Boris and Natasha to outwit Moose and Squirrel...
The PRI that emerged in the late 1920s after 10 years of civil war and 8 years of assassinations was pretty successful at getting rid of political violence in Mexico. However, its key feature -- a single six year term for a dictatorial President -- which encouraged elites to wait their turn for power rather than murdering the current ruling clique, was the opposite of what Putin wants, which is some measure of continuing power. Much of the looting of Mexico that regularly occurred in the last year of a President's term causing financial crises (e.g., 1976, 1982, and 1994) was due to the fact that the outgoing President lost 99.9% of his power the moment he left office, so he had to make hay while the sun shone.
Singapore and China are examples of where the old leader semi-retires but keeps a lot of power.
Singapore would be the best system for Putin to emulate, if he were interested. He'd get to keep power, his party would stay entrenched, but in the Singaporean system there is respect for property rights and virtually no corruption -- two factors that make Singapore an attractive place to do business.
But Fred- a lack of corruption and respect for property rights are two thing that Putin has shown no special interest in at all and has actually moved somewhat backwards on (especially corruption, which has risen greatly during his tenure, along with a huge growth in bureaucracy.)
You don't want Putin in charge of Russia?
Offer him a better job.
Run him for President of the United States, with British MP George Galloway as Vice President.
At least we'd have two smart, articulate politicians in charge instead of the nitwit and crook we have now.
Another vote against the PRI as an example
I don't think China is a good example either, just because we only have, so far, one in a row (Jiang Zemin) setting the precedent. We will have to see if this can be maintained for a few years after Hu Jingtao steps down.
A possible positive precedent is Juan Carlos I in post-Franco Spain, but this is sort of inverted, in that Carlos kept the office but shifted and distributed the power, rather than what Putin is probably trying to do, shedding the office but keeping and consolidating the power.
Mexico's problems aren't (primarily) the fault of the PRI. Like those of other Latin American countries they are primarily due to fact that the nation's resources are in the hands of a decadent oligarchy, closely tied to the United States, which has failed to use the national wealth either for redistributive or for long-term investment purposes. Indirectly, of course, the US is largely to blame for helping to create and enable that oligarchy to begin with. The PRI at its best (in the late 1930s and 1940s) tried to get rid of that oligarchy but it wound up becoming increasingly infiltrated and corrupted by it. It's more than a little hypocritical of the US to criticize the PRI for not doing more about Mexico's problems, when it was largely due to American influence on Mexico that the PRI was turned away from its revolutionary aspirations.
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Comments closed November 23, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
Matt- what's your evidence that Putin is in favor of "some pluralism" and "many deomcracy-like institutions" (unless you put a pretty heavy emphasis on the "like" part)? _Every_ step in Russia since Putin has been in power has been to _reduce_ pluralism and actual "democracy-like institutions". The "plurlism" that exists in Russia now is mostly a competition between various parties (Unity, A Just Russia, the LDP) as to who can most vigriously support Putin. Mexico might well be a good model for what will become of Russia, at best, but not "late-PRI" mexico but rather high-PRI mexico. I don't know why you keep posting mildly pro-Putin peices when you don't show any interest into actually looking into the situation much at all.
Posted by Matt (not the famous one) | November 9, 2007 3:50 PM