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Yglesias Smackdown Watch

26 Nov 2007 10:58 am

Brad DeLong takes me to task, noting that though "[t]he inheritance of inequality is strikingly large in America today," the inheritance of IQ has relatively little to do with it. Here's math:

If inherited genetically-based IQ were the source of the extra edge that the children of the rich get in our society, than we would expect a parent with 4 times average lifetime full-time earnings--say $200,000 a year--to have a kid with a lifetime average income of $51,500 instead of the average of $50,000. But it is not $51,500. It is $150,000.

True and important, and I didn't want to say otherwise.

What I wanted to inject into this is that while we can change people's childhood environments in a forward-looking way or look at adoption studies for research purposes, in practice most people aren't newborn babies and we're obviously not (and shouldn't!), in practice, going to reassign children to new families. Consequently, the precise degree to which things are inherited "genetically" versus "environmentally" is of limited relevance in thinking about how people deserve to be treated. If you allow a large degree of inequality to exist, then children will grow up in sharply unequal environments, and the people who grow up in those environments will suffer from lifelong disadvantages for reasons that are completely outside of their control.

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Comments (40)

Right, the whole point is that there is some strong evidence that genetics has SOME sort of impact on IQ but discerning how much because of all the environmental factors is a real struggle.

For those readers trying to figure out the "math" there, it's explained in a citation in the DeLong link. (It's not entirely "math," either--the relevant point seems to involve some intro-level genetics which I--having only vague junior-high memories of Mendel and petunias--am going to have to take the author's word for.) But the passage Matt quoted is hardly persuasive on its own.

Yglesias seems to be being surprisingly kind to DeLong's knockdown which entirely misses the point of Yglesias' post and in a silly way. Unless one thinks that "being in intense training since kindergarten" is an inherited trait, then it should be pretty clear that Yglesias is not claiming that the importance of IQ is that it is inherited. (And his earlier post about Japan clearly undercuts that idea).

Here Yglesias is clearly getting right that we know more about what IQ is correlated with than where it comes from or what causal role it plays. To the degree that it is at least partially an indicator of privilege, it is not surprising that it's relation to privilege would be magnified beyond what a genetic account of IQ would predict.

Increasingly nebulous concepts like "race" still distract many seeing this plain.

I don't think the vocabulary of genetics and inherited traits is anything but misleading here, no matter how you look at intelligence. We have enough knowledge of the neurological development of the brain that we could, if wanted to, do a neurological audit of the effects of sub-par environments: in health, in nutrition, in education, etc. We can see the organic damage done by a system that developed over the last two centuries, when the U.S. maintained an apartheid regime, and we should be using intelligence data, if at all (since the notion of g only really has any use as a social construct) to pinpoint that damage and the remedial policies needed to make sure it isn't perpetuated. Eventually, our move towards a Brazil style distribution of wealth will also impact neurologically, favoring the children of the wealthy, injuring the children of the working class.

James,

The citation in the link actually doesn't provide anything useful either. For that you need the original study (not even the one Delong quotes, but an earlier study that contains the actual survey data). I'll run down the paper when I have a moment, and try to say something useful.

Basically, Delong is citing a paper that cites a paper that claims that the relationship between IQ and wealth is .15 (in very inelegant terms, it accounts for a bit more than 1/7th of the determining factors) The statement about what shift in earnings is accounted for by IQ alone follows directly from that assumption. The math looks impressive (if you're a bit hazy on your genetics), but it's just a smokescreen. It doesn't add any extra credibility.

The real question is how good the original study was. I'm guessing it's pretty watertight, but it needs to be checked. (and Delong should have included a link)

While we do not yet know how much of what we call "IQ" is socially constructed, it's worth recalling that the Brits used to point to the alleged stupidity of the Irish when they wanted to justify ruling them. For evidence of this stupidity they would point to multi generational illiteracy, poverty, and simian features. This was not so long ago.

I should have noted that indirect effects of IQ account for another chunk of the correlation between IQ and earnings. Sorry for the misstatement.

Well, I'm somewhat sympathetic with the general thrust of DeLong's argument---just consider all the recent Wall Street CEO's paid many, many tens of millions in exchange for being fired on grounds of stupidity and incompetence.

But if DeLong's algebraic mumbo-jumbo is the sort of thing economists like him actually use to produce their *economic* predictions, I very much fear for America's economic future.

Well, actually, MNPundit, the whole point as DeLong argues it is that inherited income inequality has almost nothing to do with inherited IQ. The inheritance of IQ seems to account for only about 2% of the inheritance of income level in the US.

The IQ uber alles lobby has tendency to over emphasize the importance of IQ. There is more than a little irony here.

Thinking a bit more about it, maybe one problem is that economists in general just aren't all that bright...

For example, consider Larry Summers. He seemed like a pretty unpleasant fellow, but (I think) he was regarded as a great, great economist. Both his uncles won Nobel Prizes in Economics, he was the youngest tenured professor in Harvard's entire history, and he reached the top of the Treasury Department ladder at an astonishingly young age.

But I remember once reading an interview with him in which he explained that his original plans in life had been to become a physicist, but the very first college physics course he took seemed (according to him) so totally beyond his own mental ability, that he decided to switch to economics instead.

Interesting story...

maybe one problem is that economists in general just aren't all that bright...

I've had that same thought exactly on occasion.

e explained that his original plans in life had been to become a physicist, but the very first college physics course he took seemed (according to him) so totally beyond his own mental ability, that he decided to switch to economics instead.

even if he's otherwise a dick, you gotta admire the man's honesty here

Brad Delong's math is preposterous and a smokescreen to boot, as another poster noted.

If you get down to the kernel of Delongs fashionable Berkeley argument, it is that IQ has only a 2% factor in inheritable success of children of high IQ professionals. Which starts to get blown out of the water if you observe the likelihood of children of high IQ parents having the brains and performance to be selected at Berkeley (with no help from race quotas and other factors) - which is considerably higher than mainstream students.
The likelihood of children then following high IQ professional parents and doing as well or better in professions or business is considerably higher than 2%.

Maybe its "unfair" and offensive to people embracing the "equality in ability is a fact and success is mostly nurture" camp - but - reality is that kids of dumb people tend to be dumb and kids of smart folks tend to be smart by any objective tests and tracking of later accomplishments shows. Within a bell curve that shows a scattering of progeny along a bell curve of regression (or progression) of the mental ability mean established by the parents genetically determined intelligence.

The math may be preposterous. At first glance, it does seem fishy to me. But, I don't had time to delve into it.

Having said that, he's not saying anything that has a bearing on the following statement: "The likelihood of children then following high IQ professional parents and doing as well or better in professions or business is considerably higher than 2%".

He's not saying anything about the absolute likelihood of children of high IQ parents doing anything. He's just saying that the genetic hereditability of IQ can only account for roughly 2% of the correlation in incomes that exists between parents and children.

A general point about IQ testing that DeLong and many other people don't understand is that IQ tests are not terribly reliable for predicting the fate of any one individual, but they are pretty good at predicting the average outcomes for large groups of individuals who differ in average IQ.

We can see this distinctly in the magnificent database of National Longitudinal Study of Youth which has been tracking a representative sample of 12,000 people (and their children) since 1979. Charles Murray did a clever analysis comparing pairs of sibling raised in the same household who differ substantially in IQ on the U.S. Military's AFQT entrance test. Murray summarized in the Times of London:

"Each pair consists of one sibling with an IQ in the normal range of 90-110, a range that includes 50% of the population. I will call this group the normals. The second sibling in each pair had an IQ either higher than 110, putting him in the top quartile of intelligence (the brights) or lower than 90, putting him in the bottom quartile (the dulls). These constraints produced a sample of 710 pairs. How much difference did IQ make? Earned income is a good place to begin. In 1993, when we took our most recent look at them, members of the sample were aged 28-36. That year, the bright siblings earned almost double the average of the dull: £22,400 compared to £11,800. The normals were in the middle, averaging £16,800." [IQ Will Put You In Your Place, Charles Murray, Sunday Times, UK, Day 25, 1997]

http://www.isteve.com/How_to_Help_the_Left_Half_of_the_Bell_Curve.htm

I can't speak for Birdie or Sandy but Mulligan and I both scored an average of 3-5 points higher on those online IQ tests after a half dozen beers.

What is going on in the heads of a lot of people when they think about IQ is that they say to themselves "I'm smarter than that 120 IQ score I got on the test, so if the test is wrong for just one person, how can it be right for an entire group? Huh? Huh?" (For example, when Tom Snyder told John Kerry that my analysis of his performance on the Naval Officer Qualifying Test suggested he had an IQ around 120, Kerry said he must have gone out drinking the night before.)

But, of course, when it comes to statistical phenomenon, this reasonable-sounding line of argument is backwards. The larger the group (e.g., African-Americans), the easier it is to wash out more and more of the statistical noise. So, groups with higher average IQ will tend to perform better, all else being equal, than groups with lower average IQs. (Of course, all else is not equal -- members of Mensa probably have about the same average IQ as staff at Goldman Sachs, but not the same income because the latter were chosen not just for income but for aggressiveness, money hunger and the like.)

RKU (re: Larry Summers) "But I remember once reading an interview with him in which he explained that his original plans in life had been to become a physicist, but the very first college physics course he took seemed (according to him) so totally beyond his own mental ability, that he decided to switch to economics instead.

Interesting story..."

Which is actually a very strange story; Summers obviously had the brains and educational prep to get a Ph.D. in Economics, and achieve tenure at an elite university. Freshman/sophomore physics shouldn't have fazed him.

Well, I'm somewhat sympathetic with the general thrust of DeLong's argument---just consider all the recent Wall Street CEO's paid many, many tens of millions in exchange for being fired on grounds of stupidity and incompetence.

I wouldn't say Stan O'Neal is stupid. I'm not even sure if he was incompetent. I just think he didn't really care. When the sub prime mess was at its first crescendo in August, O'Neil was on the golf course most days. You could call this stupidity (as you could call his earlier drive for Merrill to take on more risk), or you could call this a rational response to incentives. When you're going to get paid $160 million even when your bets go wrong, why not double-down?

Now that shareholders see the dramatic difference in share performance between companies that managed risks better (e.g., Goldman Sachs) and those that managed risk worse (e.g., Merrill, Citigroup), perhaps these incentives will be tweaked a little.

A couple of hypotheses about Summers and physics:

1. He may lack 3-d visualization cognitive skill, which is a serious problem in a physicist but not in an economist.

2. Considering that his father's brother (Paul Samuelson) and mother's brother (Kenneth Arrow) both won Nobels in Economics, Larry's ambition might well have been to win a Nobel for himself. An introductory physics class might well have shown him he wasn't the smartest guy in the room in physics, crushing his Nobel Physics Prize dream.

Economists tend not to be very good at doing reality checks, as Brad DeLong shows here.

- If IQ was so trivial in economic outcomes, why do colleges (who make much of their money from donations from rich alumni) put such vast effort into recruiting high SAT score freshmen?

- If IQ is trivial in real world performance, why has the U.S. military invested so much in IQ testing ever since WWII? Why did the Pentagon get Congress to ban by law the enlistment of anybody scoring in the bottom 10 percent on the Armed Forces Qualifying Test? Why during the years from 1992-2004, the military virtually halted accepting recruits from the bottom 30% off the population in IQ? (The answer of course is that the military has done many studies showing that, all else being equal, higher IQ recruits outperform lower IQ recruits across the almost all tasks.)

Delong's cold eye analysis is anything but fashionable. It's the IQ revisionists who seem to a be a bit fashionable these days. Like Lothrop Stoddard used to be. Earlier the phrenologists.

Sailer is talented movie reviewer. Too bad he has signed up with the IQ Uber Alles lobby. Perhaps this too shall pass.

SAT scores are not the same as IQ, btw - The SAT can be taught.
The reasons collges take it so seriously is because its a they are captive to spurious rankings by US News etc.

The IQ uber alles lobby would point to Colin Powell to justify their claims. Since it's clear that anyone with an IQ over 120 would have known that most of of the content in his UN speech was baseless. So they would say that the cartoons of fake trucks and the clips of arabs talking would be enough to trick the confused masses, but an intelligent person could see thru all those tricks. So they point out that Powell fell for it - that he believed all that bad intelligence. They would cite Lawrence Wilkerson talking about how they were all wrong.
But recall Negroponte was sitting behind Powell during the speech. No one would claim Negroponte is not bright. But it seems Negroponte fell for the same propaganda - Like the more middle minded Tenet - he thought it was a slam dunk.
So those IQ uber alles types who would point to Powell's seeming stupidity as some sort of anecdote to make their case - they be wrong.

By the way, is Matt ever going to come out of the closet and say, "What happened to James Watson was a disgrace"?

Kerry's IQ seemed about right at 120 - same with Bush's . If Kerry had a higher IQ he would not have sounded a defensive note when this was brought up in the campaign. Apparently he tooks some comfort in the bogus "Kerry is smarter" narrative that the mainstream media was pushing (to Kerry's objective detriment).

Kerry lacks a certain kind of imagination and creativity - just as Dubya. Kerry's verbal fluidity impressed the less intelligent reporters and the upper ranks of the Dem party had an emotional investment in thinking Bush was dumb. In addition, the chattering classes have a class interest in overweighting verbal intelligence when they spin these narratives.

While Bush lacks imagination, he is very smart (as is Kerry) compared to the average. He is smart enough to make appropriately cryptic remarks about evolution etc.

Bush looks at the anti-intellectual squalor in the Republican party much the same way a pig looks at big pile of slop. He just can't wait to roll around in it and make all the liberals squirm.

Huckabee's rancid populism is an attempt to tap into the same spirit. But he will fail - the power elite thinks Huckabee, unlike Bush, is a sincere simpleton.

To get technical, DeLong's fallacy is that correlation isn't the same as effect size. In a complex system with many factors, such as human affairs, a single factor (such as IQ) can have a low correlation with a dependent variable (such as income) but still have a sizable effect.

The impact of individual IQ on individual income is not high in an absolute sense (although it is high relative to most other potential influences), but if you compare two sizable groups that differ in average IQ but are otherwise similar, the impact of IQ is striking.

Charles Murray quantified this in an ingenious study of pairs of American siblings raised together in non-poor homes. Murray described his findings in the Sunday Times of London in 1997:

"Each pair consists of one sibling with an IQ in the normal range of 90-110, a range that includes 50% of the population. I will call this group the normals. The second sibling in each pair had an IQ either higher than 110, putting him in the top quartile of intelligence (the brights) or lower than 90, putting him in the bottom quartile (the dulls). These constraints produced a sample of 710 pairs. How much difference did IQ make? Earned income is a good place to begin. In 1993, when we took our most recent look at them, members of the sample were aged 28-36. That year, the bright siblings earned almost double the average of the dull: £22,400 compared to £11,800. The normals were in the middle, averaging £16,800." [IQ Will Put You In Your Place, Charles Murray, Sunday Times, UK, Day 25, 1997]

Actually, my impression was that Kerry---whatever his intelligence---very much *lacked* any verbal fluidity, one of the many reasons he was such a terrible candidate.

For example, there were all those stories about how his speech-writers---who clearly are pretty sharp---would draft strong, clear rhetoric for him, and then he would totally destroy its effectiveness by tagging on endless additional verbiage.

I think Kerry's strength was as a "courtier", which is presumably how he managed to snag not just one but two very wealthy wives, matching Martin Peretz's record.

But pompous gigolos aren't great at winning elections, which is why our country's still in the horrible mess it is today....

Kerry's big problem is his vanity.

Sailer's comments here are statistically illiterate. Here is DeLong's citation from the paper by Bowles et al.

The direct effect of IQ on earnings... presented in Bowles, Gintis, and Osborne (2002a)... is 0.15, indicating that a [one] standard deviation change in the cognitive score, holding constant... remaining variables... changes... earnings by about one-seventh of a standard deviation...

The paper speaks of "effect", not "correlation". "Holding constant remaining variables" takes care of the rest of Sailer's objections. You can if you wish try to find papers which argue for a higher effect of IQ on earnings, but actually 0.15 is a pretty strong effect. Obviously, IQ cannot simply equal merit. There must be many factors besides IQ which affect earning power: push the IQ effect up too high and there's no room for other factors such as good looks, athletic ability, social savvy, plain old discipline and determination, ideology, good schooling, etc.

But IQ is not perfectly heritable. Earning power, meanwhile, is extremely heritable. What DeLong argues is that if you take that 0.15 effect, factor in that IQ is perhaps 50% heritable (and add in the IQ-related factor of length of schooling, which also affects earning power positively) then you still don't get anywhere near the level of intergenerational correlation in earning power observed in the US today. In fact, you only get 2% of it. The other 98% is being accounted for by other factors. Maybe some of those are also heritable personal traits, like good looks, discipline, a money-earning ethic, etc., but they're not IQ.

In a complex system with many factors, such as human affairs, a single factor (such as IQ) can have a low correlation with a dependent variable (such as income) but still have a sizable effect.

But IQ is not a single factor. It can not be treated as a single gene controlling a single trait. The IQ test is supposed to test cognitive ability. These abilities include verbal skills, memory, information processing, visual-spatial, imagination, etc. It's quite possible that these skills are all controlled by different genes, which would complicate heritability exponentially by the number of traits that need to be inherited. Further, the heritability each of these traits would be complicated exponentially by the number of genes in each trait. Just like a coin flipped repeatedly. Any flip has a .5 chance of being heads (from your mother), however the chances of 10 heads in a row (eg a complete trait from your mother) are very small.

No, although you can explain away the impact of IQ by crediting variables that covary along with it for the impact on income, more straightforward studies, such as Murray's comparison of siblings raised in the same home, suggest larger effect sizes.

All these questions can be studied using the federal government's National Longitudinal Study of Youth that has been following 12,000 people (and their children!) since 1979. They were all given the military's AFQT IQ test in 1980.

The results look much different than Dr. DeLong would wish you to believe. Charles Murray reported in the London Times in 1997 on his study of sibling pairs in the NLSY:

"To make the analysis as unambiguous as possible, I have limited my sample to brothers and sisters whose parents are in the top 75 per cent of American earners, with a family income in 1978 averaging 40,000 (in today's money).

"Families living in poverty, or even close to it, have been excluded. The parents in my sample also stayed together for at least the first seven years of the younger sibling's life.

"Each pair consists of one sibling with an IQ in the normal range of 90-110 ,a range that includes 50% of the population. I will call this group the normals. The second sibling in each pair had an IQ either higher than 110, putting him in the top quartile of intelligence (the bright) or lower than 90, putting him in the bottom quartile (the dull). These constraints produced a sample of 710 pairs.

"How much difference did IQ make? Earned income is a good place to begin. In 1993, when we took our most recent look at them, members of the sample were aged 28-36. That year, the bright siblings earned almost double the average of the dull: 22,400 compared to 11,800. The normals were in the middle, averaging 16,800.

"These differences are sizeable in themselves. They translate into even more drastic differences at the extremes. Suppose we take a salary of 50,000 or more as a sign that someone is an economic success. A bright sibling was six-and-a-half times more likely to have reached that level than one of the dull. Or we may turn to the other extreme, poverty: the dull sibling was five times more likely to fall below the American poverty line than one of the bright.

"Equality of opportunity did not result in anything like equality of outcome. Another poverty statistic should also give egalitarians food for thought: despite being blessed by an abundance of opportunity, 16.3% of the dull siblings were below the poverty line in 1993. This was slightly higher than America's national poverty rate of 15.1%.

"...The young people in our selected sample came from families that were overwhelmingly likely to support college enthusiastically and have the financial means to help. Yet while 56% of the bright obtained university degrees, this was achieved by only 21% of the normals and a minuscule 2% of the dulls. Parents will have been uniformly supportive, but children are not uniformly able.

"The differences among the siblings go far beyond income. Marriage and children offer the most vivid example. Similar proportions of siblings married, whether normal, bright or dull - but the divorce rate was markedly higher among the dull than among the normal or bright, even after taking length of marriage into account. Demographers will find it gloomily interesting that the average age at which women had their first birth was almost four years younger for the dull siblings than for the bright ones, while the number of children born to dull women averaged 1.9, half a child more than for either the normal or the bright.

"Most striking of all were the different illegitimacy rates. Of all the first-born children of the normals, 21% were born out of wedlock , about a third lower than the figure for the United States as a whole, presumably reflecting the advantaged backgrounds from which the sibling sample was drawn. Their bright siblings were much lower still, with less than 10% of their babies born illegitimate. Meanwhile, 45% of the first-born of the dull siblings were born outside of marriage."

Matt Yglesias's point is rather similar to Charles Murray's conclusion to his paper analyzing the sibling data:

"People of different political viewpoints may legitimately respond to this presentation
with policy prescriptions that are in polar opposition. In many ways, the Left has the
easier task. These data are tailor-made for the conclusion that a Rawlsian redistributive
state is the only answer. For its part, the Right must state forthrightly why it thinks that
a free society that tolerates large differences in outcomes is preferable to an
authoritarian society that reduces them. But though the answers may be different for
those of competing political persuasions, the challenge is common to all. It is time for
policy analysts to stop avoiding the reality of natural inequality, a reality that neither
equalization of opportunity nor a freer society will circumvent."

Just don't tase me, bro!

Multiple regression analysis indicate a strong correlation between childhood and IQ, indicating a strong liklihood of a heritable factor in early environment. When we control for those cases where the presence of a childhood is well verified the relation is even stronger.

Multiple regression analysis indicate a strong correlation between childhood and IQ, indicating a strong liklihood of a heritable factor in early environment. When we control for those cases where the presence of a childhood is well verified the relation is even stronger.

Comparing siblings does not control for everything in the family background. Environments can differ within families, too—because of differences in the sex, personality, or birth order of the children.


Steve, I think that deLong's point is that being rich has much, much higher heritability than being smart and therefore that income inequality has its roots in social structures rather than genetics.

So even if we could make everyone equally smart society would continue to suffer from chronic inequality with all of the problems that this entails for the common good.

Obviously as a right wing racist inequality and increasing poverty do not bother you much but for those who are concerned with increasing the common good listening to Murray's theories will remain a convenient way to identify people to avoid at parties rather than a useful tool for understanding society.


Comments closed December 10, 2007.

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