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Edwards on Lieberman-Warner

06 Dec 2007 03:32 pm

I'm not entirely sure what I think about the Lieberman-Warner climate change bill that made its way out of the Senate's Environment and Public Works Committee yesterday. John Edwards says:

Addressing global warming is one of the great moral tests of our generation, and it’s time for bold action and leadership to address this crisis that threatens the globe. While I’m glad to see that global warming legislation is finally moving in the Senate, unfortunately the Lieberman-Warner bill doesn’t go far enough to address the crisis of global warming. We cannot be limited in our approach by the armies of lobbyists from big oil companies and other special interests. This bill gives away pollution permits to industry for free – a massive corporate windfall – instead of doing what is right and selling them so that we can use these resources to invest in clean energy research, create a new economy of green jobs, and help regular families and business go green.

That's all true, but still is it better to pass the half measure now than to do nothing? The fear is that if Lieberman-Warner becomes law, everyone kind of convinces themselves that we've done "something" and that since "something" needed to be done, we're now done, and can all just kind of not pay attention as the climate degrades at a somewhat-slower rate. Another way of looking at it, though, is that even inadequate steps might strengthen the hand of the good guys. Lieberman-Warner would do something to help spur alternative energy sources, which could grow the power of the alternative energy lobby and thus spur further change.

And of course one also needs to take George W. Bush into consideration. My sense of this is that in some ways the best possible outcome would be for the bill to pass, and then for Bush to veto it. That would mean that "something" still needs to be done, but it would also set Lieberman-Warner as the minimum, thus making it obvious that a 2009 bill -- most likely in a context of a Democratic administration and with more Democrats in congress -- needs to be more ambitious.

Photo by Flickr user Chisvick used under a Creative Commons license

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Comments (12)

If the Democrats really thought climate change is important, then the minimum that should be done is what everyone else in the Western World has done: ratify Kyoto. So why aren't the Democratic candidates (and Senate) pledging to submit and ratify Kyoto?

And don't tell me it's too late. Australia just ratified last week.

To follow up: or are the Democratic candidates pledging to submit Kyoto to the Senate for ratification? I haven't heard it, but I don't follow the race all that quickly.

Al, Australia's ratification was mostly symbolic and done to show their support for the next treaty to be negotiated and the ongoing Bali conference. Several U.S. Senators are also there.

Matt, the problem is that if we are going to do cap and trade rather than a carbon tax, once you give away the carbon permits, it will be really, really hard to take them away or give them to someone else.

Our plan to solve the climate crisis shouldn't be a massive giveaway to the biggest carbon emitters. If we set the baseline at today for carbon emission permits, whoever is the biggest carbon emitter today gets the most permits.

So ... a major piece of climate change legislation is drafted with a Republican and an Independent as the major sponsors? Anyone else see this as a sign of Democratic weakness?

This is the Democratic idea of leadership? Harry? Hillary? Barack?

WTF???

Step up and lead or stop asking for our support.

bob nails it. Many industries are pushing Lieberman-Warner because it will lock us into a half measure. I'm all for not making the perfect the enemy of the good, but I also don't like it when the mediocre bars us from the good (and in this case minimally necessary).

Pushing Lieberman-Warner because they think it's friendlier to them than what they're likely to get under the next Congress and President, that is.

Al: My team beat your team last night. FACE!

I agree with Senator Edwards.

When are we going to stop accepting less without having fought for something more? This happens everytime there is major legislation. The corporations get what they want and then it takes us years to change the narrative where we can even achieve incremental change. Why do we keep doing this to ourselves over and over and over?

I tend to think that Edwards is following approximately the strategy that you are suggesting here. He is not a sitting senator, and no one in Congress is going to care more about what Edwards thinks than their constituents, so he can't impact whether it passes (and is vetoed) now. But he could, if elected, say that he had always wanted a stronger bill and therefore be in a better position to argue for one than if he had supported L-W.

"bob nails it. Many industries are pushing Lieberman-Warner because it will lock us into a half measure"

More precisely it will lock us into a measure that is so toothless that they will potentially see increased profits from it's implementation.

Calling Lieberman-Warner a 'half measure' seems too kind.

Lieberman-Warner is a flat-out scam.

Back about three years ago, before it became abundantly apparent how much trouble we are really in, the mainstream consensus was that in order to stabilize atmospheric carbon levels at twice baseline levels (an arbitrary target, but one expected at the time to hold long-term impacts to a serious, but not catastrophic level), we would need to reduce current US emissions to 1990 levels (something we already promised and failed to do by 1999) by 2020, and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The dire news coming out of recent climate research indicates that we will have to do better then that. But let's keep it as a baseline for the moment.

Using that metric, the minimum acceptable legislation must result in emission reductions that get us in or below the band of a path that stabilizes concentrations at 450-550 ppm (The World Resources Institute has a nice overlay of this and the current round of climate proposals). It must front-load the institutional mechanisms that get us there instead of making a meaningless promise to hit an imaginary goal half a century from now (in politics, a decade is a very long time, and fifty years is eternity). It must be comprehensive. It must not transfer vast sums of wealth to polluters. It must not be so leaky that the goals are a shuck. It would be nice if it temporarily attenuated the direct hit on small energy consumers until our current round of guzzling cars and appliances die, while assuring that the next car and appliance does the right thing.

This is the threshold position. There are lots of good arguments for doing more than this. Anything *less* than this is not just a waste of time, it is a betrayal of our future. That is not ideological purity talking. It's arithmetic.

Lieberman-Warner is a warmed-over version of Lieberman-McCain, and fails the above criteria on all counts. It is the least effective serious proposal on the table. Even taking the "mandated" 70% reduction by 2050 seriously, overall reductions end up way above the band of what it takes to reach climate stabilization at 450-550 ppm. It simply does not do what needs to be done.

But the reality of the bill is much worse. It only applies to 75% of current US greenhouse gas sources, ever. It doesn't even start until 2012 (so much for being in a hurry to get it done in 2008), and gives away huge (though declining) indulgences to polluters (effectively exempting them as well) until 2036, effectively destroying the efficacy of the synthetic carbon market that is supposed to solve the problem by internalizing carbon costs. You can see the effect in a recent Duke University analysis, with credit costs not hitting $50/ton (a good rule-of-thumb marker for what you are spending if you are serious) for another 30 years. The naive reliance on trees, carbon sequestration, and nukes to bail us out of this fix is pathetic - when you actually run the numbers, it is clear that these are not serious solutions, they are invocations of the Tooth Fairy. Finally, only a tiny fraction of the subsidies go to help consumers - the rest go to allowing the usual suspects to continue business as usual.

The most damning indictment of Lieberman-Warner is that the already inadequate 70% reduction number is a fraud. Unlike most of the other proposals, the 70% reduction marker is indexed to 2005 emission levels, not 1990 levels. And, it doesn't even come close to meeting that disingenuous expectation. The legislation would, in fact, only directly reduce US climate emissions 20% by 2050. That's barely enough to get us back to 1990 levels by 2050. The rest of the assumed savings in Lieberman-Warner hinge on massive domestic and international carbon offsets (extremely dicey to reliably quantify, and really just outsourcing the damage even if you get what you think you getting), and on theoretical free driver emission reductions in the 25% of current US carbon sources that the legislation does not address at all.

We haven't even gotten to the question of why we are bothering with federal climate legislation at all while Bush is president, or what happens when Lieberman-Warner is the position we are negotiating down from. On its face, why would any responsible public policy advocate support this proposal?

Lieberman-Warner is a flat-out scam.

Back about three years ago, before it became abundantly apparent how much trouble we are really in, the mainstream consensus was that in order to stabilize atmospheric carbon levels at twice baseline levels (an arbitrary target, but one expected at the time to hold long-term impacts to a serious, but not catastrophic level), we would need to reduce current US emissions to 1990 levels (something we already promised and failed to do by 1999) by 2020, and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The dire news coming out of recent climate research indicates that we will have to do better then that. But let's keep it as a baseline for the moment.

Using that metric, the minimum acceptable legislation must result in emission reductions that get us in or below the band of a path that stabilizes concentrations at 450-550 ppm (The World Resources Institute has a nice overlay of this and the current round of climate proposals). It must front-load the institutional mechanisms that get us there instead of making a meaningless promise to hit an imaginary goal half a century from now (in politics, a decade is a very long time, and fifty years is eternity). It must be comprehensive. It must not transfer vast sums of wealth to polluters. It must not be so leaky that the goals are a shuck. It would be nice if it temporarily attenuated the direct hit on small energy consumers until our current round of guzzling cars and appliances die, while assuring that the next car and appliance does the right thing.

This is the threshold position. There are lots of good arguments for doing more than this. Anything *less* than this is not just a waste of time, it is a betrayal of our future. That is not ideological purity talking. It's arithmetic.

Lieberman-Warner is a warmed-over version of Lieberman-McCain, and fails the above criteria on all counts. It is the least effective serious proposal on the table. Even taking the "mandated" 70% reduction by 2050 seriously, overall reductions end up way above the band of what it takes to reach climate stabilization at 450-550 ppm. It simply does not do what needs to be done.

But the reality of the bill is much worse. It only applies to 75% of current US greenhouse gas sources, ever. It doesn't even start until 2012 (so much for being in a hurry to get it done in 2008), and gives away huge (though declining) indulgences to polluters (effectively exempting them as well) until 2036, effectively destroying the efficacy of the synthetic carbon market that is supposed to solve the problem by internalizing carbon costs. You can see the effect in a recent Duke University analysis, with credit costs not hitting $50/ton (a good rule-of-thumb marker for what you are spending if you are serious) for another 30 years. The naive reliance on trees, carbon sequestration, and nukes to bail us out of this fix is pathetic - when you actually run the numbers, it is clear that these are not serious solutions, they are invocations of the Tooth Fairy. Finally, only a tiny fraction of the subsidies go to help consumers - the rest go to allowing the usual suspects to continue business as usual.

The most damning indictment of Lieberman-Warner is that the already inadequate 70% reduction number is a fraud. Unlike most of the other proposals, the 70% reduction marker is indexed to 2005 emission levels, not 1990 levels. And, it doesn't even come close to meeting that disingenuous expectation. The legislation would, in fact, only directly reduce US climate emissions 20% by 2050. That's barely enough to get us back to 1990 levels by 2050. The rest of the assumed savings in Lieberman-Warner hinge on massive domestic and international carbon offsets (extremely dicey to reliably quantify, and really just outsourcing the damage even if you get what you think you getting), and on theoretical free driver emission reductions in the 25% of current US carbon sources that the legislation does not address at all.

We haven't even gotten to the question of why we are bothering with federal climate legislation at all while Bush is president, or what happens when Lieberman-Warner is the position we are negotiating down from. On its face, why would any responsible public policy advocate support this proposal?

Kevin, it might be wise revisit the bill's language after Boxer's mark.

I can understand why readers on this blog are reluctant to trust any bill with Lieberman's name on it given his positions on Middle East foreign policy, but this is a much stronger bill than it is perceived. If you'd like to see the WRI/NRDC analysis, check it out Here .

To say that the corporations are behind this bill is foolish if you listened to any of the hearings and looked over the amendments Craig and Inhofe proposed (and were thankfully rejected). Furthermore, rumors abound that USCAP is on the rocks because the bill is much harder on businesses than expected.

Is this bill perfect? Far from it.

But when was the last time A+ legislation ever passed? An A-/B+ bill is far better than the alternative, which is nothing. It's telling that the most hippy/enviro senator on the committee, Bernie Sanders, gave this bill a thumbs-up considering he voted against it in sub-committee.


Comments closed December 20, 2007.

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