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Insulting Allright

07 Dec 2007 12:37 pm

The New Republic, in an apparent effort to embarrass anyone who defended them over Scott Beauchamp, busts out some truly irresponsible coverage with Yossi Klein Halevi's "An Insult to Intelligence: The Israeli defense community responds to the NIE". The article basically consists of an extended, evidence-free slander of the American Intelligence Community that asserts over and over again with no basis that the NIE's conclusions are not just mistaken, but deliberately dishonest, "an expression of political machination and cowardice."

Not only does Halevi have no basis for these assertions, but the overwhelming bulk of his disagreement with the NIE is based on a kind of sleight of hand. The conclusion that Iran does not have an active nuclear weapons program is based, one assumes, on evidence for the proposition that Iran doesn't have an active nuclear weapons program. To Halevi -- who throughout the piece simply claims to speak for the entire Eretz Yisroel, despite appearing to rely almost entirely on the say-so of one former official -- the key point is something else entirely. Rather that concern about an active nuclear weapons program "Israel's point of no return is when Iran attains the potential to produce sufficient fissile material for making a bomb."

This standard, frequently applied by hawks in Israel, simply has no meaning either under relevant international law or in the world of science and engineering. But if Halevi wants to have an honest argument about thresholds -- saying the United States should hold Iran to an arbitrary and unrealistic standard -- then fair enough. But hard-working, patriotic people put this NIE together designed to answer a real question about the state, if any, of an active Iranian nuclear weapons program. The International Atomic Energy Agency had looked at this question previously and found no evidence of such a program, and now the American Intelligence Community assess that this is because there is no such program. According to Halevi, this is a "betrayal" of Israel, but the only thing that's been betrayed is a sense of hysteria that Halevi seems determined to foster.

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An interesting related article by the very hard working Laura Carlsen at the International Relations Center's Americas Program.

Too often these anti-regulation and investor favor agreements called "Trade" agreements are allegedly necessary for the poor 3rd worlders at the other end. You know, the ones who provide Friedman with his anecdotes.

Not everyone in those other nations agrees.

NAFTA Free Trade Myths Lead to Farm Failure in Mexico
Laura Carlsen, Americas Program, Center for International Policy (CIP), December 5, 2007

On Jan. 1, 2008 the last remaining tariff barriers permitted under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are slated to fall. Corn and beans were given the longest (15 years) liberalization schedule because they are at the core of Mexican culture and subsistence. Other key products—including sugar, milk, and chicken, which had formerly been regulated under a safeguard agreement to protect Mexican production, are also included.

The tariff removal ostensibly gives full rein to an open-market trade and investment regime between the United States and Mexico. The idea is that all products now enter into a competitive market that will self-regulate to enhance production, efficiency, investment, and, indirectly, the lives of Mexican producers and consumers.

That's the idea. But what has happened in the Mexican countryside over the past 14 years of NAFTA shows that free trade has been a disaster for small farmers in Mexico.

Corn farmers forced out of business by subsidized imports from the United States have swollen the ranks of migrants to the United States, where many of them contribute their poorly paid labor to the same agricultural sector that displaced them. New generations of children in rural areas see their only future en el otro lado, on the other side, where their fathers, mothers, uncles, or cousins earn the money they send home that enables their families to survive...

...Four years ago, on Jan. 31, 2003, nearly a hundred thousand Mexican farmers and supporters from unions, universities, and civil society groups marched in the streets calling for renegotiation of the NAFTA chapter on agriculture and new national farm policy that elevated values of food sovereignty and farm livelihoods above free-trade dictums. The Mexican and U.S. governments not only refused to consider changing the draconian terms of the agreement but the Mexican government continued to allow over-quota imports of corn without charging tariffs, to the detriment of its own farmers...

...Conclusion: Policies Based on People, Not Myths

If the free market is a dysfunctional myth, and if the model is impoverishing the vast majority of rural producers and contributing to immigration and poverty, should it continue to be considered the organizing principle for Mexican agriculture and the sole basis of the two nations' trade relations? What's happened in Mexican agricultural justifies at the least a serious re-evaluation of the NAFTA agricultural chapter. In demanding suspension of the tariff removal, Mexican farm organizations are saying that it's time to discard the myths and permit human values to play a role in their agricultural policy...

...[Instead of being locked into a destabilizing anti-regulation model based in the current NAFTA] both countries could rethink trade policies and begin to base new ones on reality, not myths. An integral vision of what rural producers and consumers need and offer forms the basis of the food sovereignty approach developed by the farmers' movement.

http://americas.irc-online.org/am/4794

And although it was only one point, to re-emphasize: 'Trade' policy (via anti-regulation decrees) is immigration policy. Foreign policy is immigration policy.

Crap. Sorry all. Posted in wrong browser window. The tubes have gotten me all confused today. Unless somehow NAFTA really is related to, um, you know, something about Israeli political views on Iranian policies. Hmmm.

"The New Republic, in an apparent effort to embarrass anyone who defended them over Scott Beauchamp,"

They don't need the New Republic's help for that.

Sk

This standard, frequently applied by hawks in Israel, simply has no meaning either under relevant international law or in the world of science and engineering.

Huh? No basis "in the world of science and engineering"? Stated like a true philosophy major.

Back in the world of science of engineering, whether Iran can produce "sufficient fissile material for making a bomb" is exactly what we need to keep an eye on, since that is likely to be the most difficult remaining obstacle to Iran actually producing a bomb.

Matt's complete and utter acceptance of the NIE as truth is exactly the type of uncritical thinking he would have mocked conservatives for in 2005 when the NIE said Iran did have a nuclear weapons program.

The NIE should certainly not be dismissed, but it is only a piece of a larger puzzle.

Matt's insistence that the case is now closed on Iran's nuclear program makes him not only look foolish, but hypocritical.

If you want to read basically the same article under two different bylines try John Bolton in yesterday's Washington Post and Caroline Glick in today's Jerusalem Post:

"The Flaws In the Iran Report"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/05/AR2007120502234.html

"Abandonment of the Jews"
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847275020&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

I am so sorry war is not coming fast enough for these people.

Given that we now know there was a meeting in which the Cheneyists did their uttermost to browbeat the authors of the NIE into silence or retraction, which effort failed; not to mention evidence that these same uberhawks and former Team B members were trying to keep the lid on this thing for the last year; not to mention the great deal of discomfort and squirming it has cost the Preznit himself: just what, pray, is supposed to be the "political" payoff for surmounting these powerful and legendarily vindictive forces and publishing the thing? The approbation of the left blogosphere is, to be sure, a precious and desirable thing. But realistically all the payoff you could dream of is on the side of losing it down the ol' memory hole.

Matt's complete and utter acceptance of the NIE as truth is exactly the type of uncritical thinking he would have mocked conservatives for in 2005 when the NIE said Iran did have a nuclear weapons program.

A sophomoric and pointless thing to say.

In 2005, the NIE said Iran was at ten years away from having a bomb, which meant that the OH MY GOD WE HAVE TO BOMB THEM NOW crowd was stupid.

Now that that's no longer true, the OH MY GOD WE HAVE TO BOMB THEM NOW crowd looks even dumber, which is almost as dumb as you, Dave.
.

Al,
The meaningless phrase was:

"Israel's point of no return is when Iran attains the potential to produce sufficient fissile material for making a bomb."

"Potential" is a weasel word here, allowing the statement to mean anything to anyone. Any nation that has any capacity to enrich uranium can be said to have the potential to produce enough to make a bomb. It is an idiotic criterion.

whether Iran can produce "sufficient fissile material for making a bomb" is exactly what we need to keep an eye on, since that is likely to be the most difficult remaining obstacle to Iran actually producing a bomb.

I think this is wrong. I believe that the bottleneck is getting the fissible material, isn't it? Perhaps having a civ program makes that easier.

If Israel thinks the Iran NIE is wrong, then they have their own military (a rather impressive one) and they can use it as they see fit. Just leave us out of it.

If Israel thinks the Iran NIE is wrong, then they have their own military (a rather impressive one) and they can use it as they see fit. Just leave us out of it.

They really, really can't do that. Especially since we're just next door to Iran at the moment. Everyone will reasonably assume that we OK'd any attack.

Zionism has proven itself to be incompatible with the Middle East. They had their chance and they blew it. It has to go, folks, enough is enough.

Good lord, does anybody do any research ever, or is it all mindless talking points?

Military intelligence, at bottom, is the science of capability assessment. The policy wonks and (eventually) the politicians then attempt to tease out intentions. This is a subjective, not empirical, exercise.

The "hard" aspect of the latest NIE confirms Iran has made progress toward development of the capability to produce nuclear weapons. What has changed is the subjective assessment of Iranian intentions. The change in the subjective assessment is due entirely to the fact that different people wrote this report.

So please, argue about intentions all you want. The undisputed facts are that Iran continues to develop the capability to manufacture (e.g. centrifuges) and deploy (e.g. recent announcements re: new longer-range tactical missiles) nuclear weapons.

2005 - "The NIE is the professional opinion of 16 different intelligence agencies, moonbat! And they all say that Iran really does have a nuclear weapons program just like The President has been saying since Day One of the Long War. The fact that you'd ignore this kind of solid, fact-based analysis just because it offends your twisted worldview only goes to show how much you liberal idiots hate America"


2007 - "The NIE is just a political hit-job by those stuffed-shirt Islamophiles at Foggy Bottom, moonbat! And they're lying about Iran not having a nuclear weapons program because they've wanted to sabotage The President since Day One of The Long War. The fact that you'd jump on this kind of pro-appeasement, fiction-based hackery just because it agrees with your twisted worldview only goes to show how much you liberal idiots hate America"


Yeah, it really is that pathetic.

Shorter Matt: The Eskimos are building ice machines. ElBaradei and the NIE said so.

The reality based community is filled with easy marks. What else is there to say.

So please, argue about intentions all you want. The undisputed facts are that Iran continues to develop the capability to manufacture (e.g. centrifuges) and deploy (e.g. recent announcements re: new longer-range tactical missiles) nuclear weapons.

Let's meet halfway: I take it as a given that influential factions within Iran certainly DO want to develop nuclear weapons. For one thing, it's an ambition that country has had since the days of our boy Pahlavi. For another, given Pakistan, India, Israel, and a hostile American expedition on their frontier, it'd be foolish if they didn't investigate the technology.

But here's the deal: It's not our problem. Like many post-revolutionary states, it's preoccupied with its own internal affairs: Over nearly thirty years, Iran's regime has shown essentially NO interest in expansionist ambitions (and no, sorry, Hezbollah doesn't count as a world-conquering juggernaut). An Iranian nuclear weapon would be no worse than a Pakistani one, and we've pretty much tacitly condoned that for about a decade now.

This is the worst example of the outsized and toxic influence of the Israel lobby. Outside of the fever swamp of their never-ending hysteria, it's not even clear that an Iranian bomb would be any real practical threat to Israel -- but even if it were, that's Israel's problem, not ours. It is most emphatically NOT something that rates a single American casualty.

Nothing says "credibility", Eli, like linking to the NY Sun in your sig.

Re abb1

The State of Israel will go out of business when Mr. abb1 sees the back of his own ear. Old Arab saying.

Re abb1

Apparently venture capitalists are rather more positive about the future of the State of Israel then is Mr. abb1.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847274078&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Gee...which side of the NIE do I want to be on?

The new US intelligence community now rid of Feith, his OSP henchmen and Israeli generals....or the eternal Israeli psychotic hysterics and parasites clinging to the US ass?

Given a choice between what the American intelligence says in the interest of the US now and what the Israelis say the US should do in the interest of Israel....well that's a no brainer.

Do what you gotta do Israel and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Conservative complaints and arguments about the NIE are meaningless because the intel is irrelevant to them in the first place. It's not like they are truly struggling with whether or not war with Iran is the right thing to do. They made that decision long ago and it was regardless of whether or not Iran has a nuclear weapons program.

Iraq should have made this value system apparent to everyone.

Apparently venture capitalists are rather more positive about the future of the State of Israel then is Mr. abb1.

I am positive about the future of the State of Israel. Provided that Zionism goes away. It's time for Zionism to go, enough is enough.

Last week the argument was, "Iran is working on a nuclear bomb, lets get 'em."
This week the argument is, "Iran isn't working on a nuclear bomb but they could be, lets get 'em."

The undisputed facts are that Iran continues to develop the capability to manufacture (e.g. centrifuges) and deploy (e.g. recent announcements re: new longer-range tactical missiles) nuclear weapons.

The NPT lets them develop centrifuges for civilian purposes. Since the NIE says that they are not currently working on building a nuclear bomb, they're not doing anything wrong.

Re abb1

Zionism will go away when Mr. abb1 sees the back of his own ear.

sglover:

"An Iranian nuclear weapon would be no worse than a Pakistani one, and we've pretty much tacitly condoned that for about a decade now.
This is the worst example of the outsized and toxic influence of the Israel lobby. "

Wishful thinking. Dangerously so. I'd say Hezbollah started it with Israel a couple summers ago, drew Israel into Lebanon and won (only the civilians lost).

Worst case scenerios: Shia Iran can close the oil shipping lanes and or Shia Iran can stir up the exploited Shia minority ariybd Saudi Arabia's oil wells. Easily done. Also, fact is they are starting an arms race in the Middle East. It just that attacking Iran would be a horrible, horrible idea.

I really can't understand the cynics who believe every country should have nukes. They're just like Bush and his US-India deal.

Nitwit one says: "The undisputed facts are that Iran continues to develop the capability to manufacture (e.g. centrifuges) and deploy (e.g. recent announcements re: new longer-range tactical missiles) nuclear weapons."

Wrong.

Iran and every other country that abides by the NPT has the right to manufacture centrifuges. In fact, Iran's centrifuges can't even process uranium to weapons grade. That's why the IAEA interest in how much work on and how many P-2 types Iran has done, since the P-1's are lame for weapons production. Iran has even offered to guarantee that their centrifuges are limited to producing only fuel-grade processed uranium.

As for the missiles, they have legitimate value without nukes. You don't bomb countries for producing missiles. Most of Iran's enemies are hundreds or thousands of miles away, so it's not surprising they want ICBMs to hit Israel with. Doesn't mean anything concerning nukes.

Peter K. thinks Hizballah started the 2006 war. It is known that Israel was planning a war on Hizballah for almost a year and was merely waiting for an excuse - which they conveniently provided by allowing several of their soldiers to be out of oversight even after having been informed that Hizballah intended to capture some for hostage exchange purposes.

Also, Iran is not starting any arms race. Israel started that arms race when it developed nuclear weapons thirty years ago. You're a little late blaming Iran.

As I continue to re-iterate, the NIE is a two-edged sword that lies in both directions. First it lies by saying, without evidence, that Iran had a nuclear weapons program, when in fact the best concept that can be supported is that Iran's MILITARY MAY have had a weapons research program. i.e,, to learn all about weapons design should Iran ever need to have a weapons DEVELOPMENT program. There is no evidence that Iran's leadership ever authorized an actual nuclear weapons development program - or even necessarily knew about the military research program (which is probably why the Iranian military generals supposedly spied on were pissed.)

Then it lies by saying, again without any real evidence, that Iran stopped that program in 2003 for no known reason. The obvious reason is that there never was a real program - only a military research program which threatened to blow up in Iran's face.

It's a "Iran has stopped beating his wife" assessment. It's both a CYA report and a means of offering both sides a chance to spin it to their advantage. Which makes it fundamentally dishonest.

The fact that both sides have jumped to conclusion based on it demonstrates that it was a brilliant act of fudging.

The Israeli response, however, was predictable - and may well have been predicted by Cheney, who probably knows that Israel now has to start the war. In fact, the NIE was probably fudged BY Cheney for precisely that purpose.

The Israelis were bribed by the $30 billion arms package to attack Iran. They hesitated, not wanting to be accused of inflaming the ME any more than they have. So Cheney needs a way to FORCE them to attack Iran. The NIE is it. If the Pentagon, the Congress and the public resists the White House push for war based on the NIE, then Israel will have to do it. Which is actually what Cheney war-gamed and is exactly what he wants.

Nothing is over. Not even when Bush and Cheney are gone, since the same problem remains for the next Administration: either engage Iran or confront Iran. And there is no evidence any of the candidates (except Paul and Kucinich, who are irrelevant) wants to engage Iran on the level it needs to be engaged with.

Of course, in Iran’s case there is a real possibility of using a civil nuclear program to create a weapons program, and Iran has strategic interests that make acquiring these weapons understandable and even, in a sense, rational. They might, like Pakistan did, be playing the world for fools, buying time and waiting for the moment to unveil their nuke program. But what is so amazing about the entire debate going on in the West is that none of us–including the government that supposedly “knows more than we do” as the delightfully servile phrase has it–has any reliable information to confirm this theory, except that we think their President is looney, our government despises theirs and many of us actually believe that Iranians–and we’re talking about Iranians here–are some set of wild-eyed, suicidal maniacs who will just as soon annihilate themselves in some kamikaze nuclear war as look at us. In just the same way that the government railroaded the country into a war in Iraq on premises that were always preposterous, the administration and a sizeable part of the population of this country are once again positive that they know what Iran intends, when we are merely supposing and guessing–just as we did with Iraq. In fact, what is going on is the making of policy based in paranoia and fear, which is by definition not all together rational or well considered.

"Oh my God, Iran might close the Straits of Hormuz, we must attack them!"

Um, you don't think they might be inspired to do this even more if we attacked them?

If Israel wants to bomb Iran, hell, go ahead. Just leave us out of it and clean up your own backlash.

My complaint is that Israel seems to want us to attack Iran on their behalf. And that's just crazy.

Eli Lake, how can I get paid to insult people without making arguments? Neoconservatism has morphed from a fringe intellectual-political movement into a cult. The theory is always right. Evidence doesn't matter.

That is precisely the case: Israel wants the US to do its dirty work for it. This is WHY Israel has been priming the US for the last fifty years as its major ally.

Israel is too damn small to conquer the ME on its own, and they know it, nukes or no nukes. So they got the big bully on the block to be their "bodyguard." And the bully goes along with it because it's in the bully's interest to be seen as a bully since he gets to collect the lunch money from the victims (handing some of it over to Israel as long as it's spent in the US.)

Unfortunately, the world has changed, and now people have an idea how to mess the bully up in one country after another by throwing rocks at him from all directions, then running away. So the countries that used to be afraid of Israel are somewhat less so now.

This enrages Israel, so it's pushing now for more immediate and direct attacks against its enemies, regardless of the excuse. Since the oil companies, war profiteers, and neocon ideologists benefit from this, it's been tried in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unfortunately for the perceptions of the world, that went to shit. So now the rest of the world is hesitant to see it tried again.

This further enrages Israel. So we can expect to see Israel reduced to dragging the US into wars from here on out by launching attacks on other states, then pleading for help from the US when they get hit back.

Next up: Iran, Syria and Lebanon (again). Whether it will be Syria and Lebanon first, or Iran first, or whatever, it's in the cards.

Yes, of course. And pressure from Likkud-firsters had nothing to do with the invasion of Iraq, and nothing to do with the calls for an attack on Iran.

Excellent post by Eagle613. We need to differentiate between what we know and what we think we know.

For one, I don't have any doubt that Iran has a major and at least from their point of view legitimate, interest in developing nuclear weapons. There's good evidence that they have made progress, and given the current state of the science and Iranian resources, even if they've taken a time out now it's just a matter of time before they succeed. Deal with it.

Given that air strikes against their program would be likely futile, and certainly wildly counterproductive overall, we need to do things that might be effective to address the problem. For my money, that's ramping up our influence in Iran by giving out lots of visas for Iranian students, increasing cultural exchanges as much as possible, and working on the trade sanctions so as to move from a general embargo to a process that carefully targets some things for continued restriction, and others for more open exchange--carrots and sticks.

This is not a sprint, it's a marathon. Iran is a big, important, traditional regional power in a region of vital US, and world, interests. We need to be deliberately working to normalize relations in a way that emphasizes areas of mutual interest, of which there are several. Think China in the Seventies.


Comments closed December 21, 2007.

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