As Ross argues at this point it would clearly be impossible for any of the Republican contenders to win the nomination. And yet, someone has to win the nomination, right?
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No One Can Win
08 Dec 2007 11:55 am
Comments (24)
I keep looking at both the democratic and republican fields and thinking "this is a joke, right?"
I keep having the feeling that we haven't yet seen either nominee. I'm sure we have, but ....
So every one of them is, in one way or another, a lily-livered liberal except for Thompson, who's lazy. Seems to argue for Thompson, right?
It's like the NCAA basketball tournament. You have to win six straight games, against the best competition, to win the tournament. Holy crap, what if nobody can do that?
Matt and Rich, it is called a brokered convention. That we haven't seen such a thing for decades doesn't mean it couldn't happen. If no one gets a clear win on Feb 5th or if Giuliani does and gets indicted for public corruption (both real possibilities at this point) then after a perfunctory first ballot gets no one the nod then the powers gather behind closed doors and start bargaining. Literally anything could happen, the Repugs could end up with Chuck Hagel or Newt Gingrich.
But purely on the 'stopped clock is right twice a day' Ross has stumbled on something here. The Republican field is just a disaster waiting to happen. 'DuMond' is not a household word. Yet. 'Rudy: Fabulous in Pink' will just get you puzzled looks. Right now. The more offbeat notions of life after death taught by the Book of Mormon? Well after people get to know them Scientology will start looking like real science in comparison. At this rate we may get Slumbering Fred by default.
The Republicans clearly didn't have a plan in place in case Macaca imploded. This is the result.
A brokered Republican convention is far from a longshot at this point. As political theater, it would be fascinating to watch those dynamics at work. I'll bet the possibility keeps Romney in the race even if he falters early, because a brokered nomination is a way around his Mormon problem and once you get beyond that he seems the best fit as a compromise nominee of the current serious candidates.
Each of the Republican candidates has a fatal flaw. I'm still predicting a four-way tie coming into the convention.
> Each of the Republican candidates has
> a fatal flaw. I'm still predicting a
> four-way tie coming into the convention.
I think Matt and the commentors are doing a little too much blog reading. The traditional media hasn't run with any of the scandals involving the Repub candidates and I predict they never will (of course Fox won't, but I mean CNN, the networks, the NYT, and AP). Any Democratic candidate would have been driven out of the field already for a skeleton 1/17th as bad as Huckabee's or Guiliani's, but the traditional media simply doesn't attack Republicans that way.
They will anoint someone fairly soon - probably Romney.
Cranky
There is a real possibility that, once actual people start actually voting, a leader will rapidly emerge, and that will be that. However, there's a real possibility (IMO) of a stalemate. We shall see.
It is just another sign that the Republican Party is in the middle of a complete collapse and that the U.S. will soon be a one party state.
The Democratic nominee is an almost certain winner. Thus, New Hampshire and Iowa are the only two states who get to pick the next president. The general election will just be a rubber stamping of the Democratic nominee.
A brokered convention; Dick Cheney comes out of the smoke as the nominee. A constitutional crisis ensues, over whether this violates the 22nd amendment.
There is a real possibility that, once actual people start actually voting, a leader will rapidly emerge, and that will be that.
Paul is in it until the bitter end. Huckabee thinks he's on a mission from god, so he's in it for as long as he can be. McCain has nothing left to do in life but go back to Arizona and die a bitter, old man if he drops out, so he'll stick it out as long as possible. Romney and Giuliani both will believe that they've got a chance at a brokered convention even if they're otherwise screwing the pooch, so they'll stick around as long as no clear leader has emerged.
Leaders emerge as candidates drop out, but the only candidate who's likely to drop out so long as there's a glimmer of hope is Thompson, and in a field of four serious candidates plus a crank who will draw perhaps 8-10% of the vote a clear leader is unlikely to emerge absent a candidate who broadly appeals to both the Republican christianist and economic fruitcake bases.
Unless there's consolidation behind a single candidate because he's deemed the most electable, a brokered convention seems likely to me.
"It is just another sign that the Republican Party is in the middle of a complete collapse and that the U.S. will soon be a one party state."
It already is.
No, there won't be any brokered conventions. Conventions today are just dog and pony shows. The elites will pick the candidates beforehand if there's any deadlocks.
It's the lottery paradox for elections.
McCain, if my life depended on a correct guess.
The GOP primary season doesn't take place in a vacuum, and while Bush has limited scope to shape the facts on the ground next year, but the Democratic primary voters will have an influence.
The question will be one of whether there are more GOP pragmatists who vote for the [Dem nominee]-beater, or vote their guts.
I want to see the raw GOP numbers out of South Carolina, compared to 2000, just to see who the 'base' is these days.
Jeb.
That is all.
"Jeb.
That is all."
Why? You really think the country wants to let the Bushpigs hit the Shitty Presidents Trifecta?
I've been saying since springtime that none of these bozos could possibly win, if it weren't for the fact that somebody has to.
I think the chance of a brokered convention is still well under 5%.
Nobody's going to do well on Super Tuesday unless they win one of the six (IA, NH, MI, NV, SC, FL) primaries or caucuses in January. And I don't see a scenario where three (or more) different candidates splitting those six is at all likely.
And even if three Pubbies go into Super Tuesday with wins under their belts, chances are excellent that one's going to come out of Super Tuesday clearly in third place. From there, the two leaders will slug it out, and one of them will win before June.
Re: The Republicans clearly didn't have a plan in place in case Macaca imploded.
The plan was that Bush would be leaving office more or less with Reagan's popularity (at leastamong other GOP voters) and so could hand pick his successor. For a while McCain was following that script and so was sucking up to Bush in hopes of being the Anointed One. Then Bush became about as popular as diarrhea and the GOP found itself with no obvious kingmaker to fall back on.
Re: The traditional media hasn't run with any of the scandals involving the Repub candidates and I predict they never will
That doesn't matter, because the traditional media no longer has any sort of monopoly on news. Too many people get their information from the Internet, or by word-of-mouth from someone they know who does. This is part of what has polarized this country since the media no longer soothes every controversy (other than the occasional big-selling scandal or major flub) into a milquetoast politics.
Re: Jeb.
That is all.
If Jeb ever runs for higher office it will not next year: he will need to wait until he can live down the stench left behind by his brother (which may be never). Besides which Jeb's record is Florida is looking worse and worse courtesy of his successor, Charlie Crist, who despite being a Republican, as had the bad grace to very publiclty address (albeit with limited success) the fetid mess Jeb left behind.
Maybe they won't nominate anyone. Then the entire campaign will be about attacking the Democratic nominee, as there won't be a Republican to attack. They sweep to victory, but the country doesn't know who the President is. They will claim that for the duration of the GWOT, revealing the President's name would be an unconscionable security breach. Naturally, the MSM applauds. More wars and fewer freedoms ensue. Congress moves to impeach, but they don't know who to impeach. The precedent having been established, they never tell us who is the new Number One, nor who the nominee is in any subsequent election, all of which are won by the Republicans. Sally Quinn and Tim Russert smile quietly to themselves, and all is well.
R Johnston: "Paul is in it until the bitter end. Huckabee thinks he's on a mission from god, so he's in it for as long as he can be. McCain has nothing left to do in life but go back to Arizona and die a bitter, old man if he drops out, so he'll stick it out as long as possible. Romney and Giuliani both will believe that they've got a chance at a brokered convention even if they're otherwise screwing the pooch, so they'll stick around as long as no clear leader has emerged."
Why would dropping out be necessary? A candidate can stick around until the official nomination at the election, but he's not going to get money, endorsements or publicitiy if he's stuck in the single digits. In addition, don't at least some of the states have winner-take-all rules? That really slams the hind end.
Jesus Christ, Candidate!
Sure, no human can possibly win the Republican nomination. Which is why, when their convention seems hopelessly deadlocked, on the 58th ballot, the Republicans will nominate Jesus Christ by acclamation. And He will win, too, when the Dems make the fatal mistake of challenging His state filings to be a candidate on the grounds that He doesn't really exist. Katie bar the door!
"There is a real possibility that, once actual people start actually voting, a leader will rapidly emerge, and that will be that. However, there's a real possibility (IMO) of a stalemate. We shall see."-Posted by MattF
I suppose it's possible, but it hasn't happened on the Republican side since 1980. For the last 6 elections, party insiders have annointed a candidate who won with virtually no real challenge. It's likely that they don't know what to do without the annointing process.
Comments closed December 22, 2007.
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Heads in the Sand
Zombie Reagan!
Posted by Brian | December 8, 2007 12:00 PM