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The Immigration Obsession

12 Dec 2007 10:21 am

Kevin Drum quotes the LA Times' analysis: "More than any other question, Republican presidential candidates are asking voters to consider a single issue in the weeks before primary voting begins: Who detests illegal immigration the most?" Indeed, but what's a bit hard to see is why they're doing this? I know there are some people here in DC who seem convinced that the Republicans can ride the immigration issue to victory in 2008, even though this is exactly the strategy they tried in 2006, and the evidence suggests that people don't care very much about immigration:

careabout%201.png

That's from the latest Washington Post poll where they asked people to name the two issues they thought were most important. It's clear that the public's main priorities are national security (to wit: Iraq and terrorism) and the deteriorating economic situation. Only ten percent see immigration as one of the two most important issues. Now if you assume that about 33 percent of the population are Republicans, and also that all ten percent of the people who are naming immigration are restrictionist Republicans (and this is clearly an overestimate -- some restrictionists are Democrats, and some people who think immigration is important aren't restrictionists) that's still only thirty percent of Republicans putting a high priority on immigration restrictionism as an issue. As the Post puts it, "Overall, five issues, including immigration and health care, reach double digits as top one or two concerns among Republicans" but they barely say anything about these other issues -- instead they quibble about who's a real conservative, they talk smack about Hillary Clinton, and they brag about how much they hate immigrants. It's bizarre.

E.J. Dionne's right that "a backlash against illegal immigration could help some Republicans running for Congress" but could help some people running for congress seems like a thin rationale for making an impractical and inhumane stand on an issue of secondary concern to the public the centerpiece of your party's political strategy.

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Comments (36)

Matthew: "Indeed, but what's a bit hard to see is why they're doing this? "

The category is: 'factions of the electorate; the anwer provided is: 'the red-meat base'.

I'll go for 'to whom does one appeal in the primary election?' for $500.

"could help some people running for congress seems like a thin rationale"

Except it has 2 features that look great to Republicans:
1) It gives them an enemy to run against and fear to whip up. It fits in with much of their electoral strategy for decades, just putting a new item in "Hate/fear" column.
2) Other than taxes, they don't have anything else to run on. So they'll run on it and the media will help (as we see from the media's obsession with this issue)

So, immigration it is! Dems better learn how to deal with it.

if you assume that about 33 percent of the population are Republicans

I like your optimism.

[I]mpractical and inhumane stand[s] on . . . issue[s] of secondary concern to the public . . . .

I think this is more or less the Republican party platform.

Gin up an emotional issue to avoid talking about Bush and Iraq - but of course never mention the complicity of big business in illegal immigration

What blatherskite said: (1) brown people from south of the Rio Grande are their latest bogeyman to fill in the "Hate/Fear" blank with, and (2) they've run out of anything better to run on.

What else will they run on? Iraq? Most Americans want to leave. The economy? Yeh, riiiiiight. Health care? Global warming? They'd rather the subjects not even get brought up.

Immigration, pathetically enough, is their best horse in the stable.

And the MSM has been quite willing to go along with this and turn immigration into one of their top issues, along with Social Security of course.

Matthew -

One thing you might want to consider in this context, however, is how the republicans (especially right wing radio) sell the illegal immigration issue *as an economic issue* (e.g. screams of "they're taking OUR jobs!!!", "they're using OUR healthcare!!!" etc.). As long as the strawman that illegal immigration has a major impact in these areas* is left to stand, it will continue to resonate as an economic issue, which is everyone's top concern area these days.

-brendan

* in a nationwide context, of course...I'm sure there are pockets here and there where local clustering of immigration (legal or not) has impacted local munucipal financials one way or another.

It drives me crazy when people make the mistake of quantizing their issue analysis. Immigration isn't distinct.

First, the only reason people are this concerned is that working people are feeling a job/wage crunch. Every time working people get that feeling, people can appeal to immigration as a bogeyman. Sometimes its impact is real; other times its impact is trumped up crap. But always it makes for a good, easy, scapegoat story. And it has the added advantage of being a story they can tell that excuses their corporate money base from any responsibility for the lot of working people today. In other words: immigration is a campaign plank because the economy is the most cared about issue.

Second, every Republican candidate has done his damnedest to tie illegal immigration to mortal threats to our women and children. Tancredo has succeeded wildly in getting his fellow candidates (with a notable geezerly exception) to denounce the invading Mexican hordes as harbingers of Islamofascist terrorists to come. in other words: immigration is campaign plank because terrorism is the most cared about issue.

Apart from the quantization problem, the idea that people haven't announced "immigration" as item one or two doesn't mean as much as we want to believe it does. In 2004 exit polls, people were asked whether the Bin Laden tape made a difference in their vote. Bush voters overwhelmingly said "no," while Kerry voters said "no" by a very small margin. But what this says to me is not that Bin Laden helped the Democrat; what it says is that Bush's whole campaign was built around steadfastness in belief. People who voted for Bush aligned themselves with the guy who said changing one's mind was a sign of weakness. Psychologically, there was a draw to that, whether natural or created, and this exit poll question essentially asked them to say whether they were flip-flopper-types or steady leader-types. Surprise! Guess which they chose?

Immigration strikes me as a similar issue. Overtly, directly, people may not list it as item one or two on their most pressing concerns. But it's crazy to think that race doesn't enter into people's fears of terrorism. Right wing terrorists in this country look and sound like anyone you pass anywhere you go, so it's basically impossible to be afraid of how they look or sound if you want to function. But Wahhabist terrorists look different and sound different, so racial prejudices boil up more easily. When someone talks about restricting immigration, they're talking about restricting those who look and sound different. When that's what who the newsworthy threats are, restricting access is a comfort to many people.

Ultimately, in the long run, I think you're right. Immigration can't be a prime fear forever in a country whose history is built on second- or third-generation assimilation, whose nationality is based on commitment to an idea rather than centuries of common history and language. But polls like this just don't tell us all that much.

The problem is that if you think you can minimize the importance of matters like abortion, gun control, gay rights, immigration by claiming they are trivial in comparison to 2-3 Macro issues - you are crazy.

The economy will always be one of the "two top voter issues" nationwide, and any of 4-5 reasons that are the main "threat" or menace - crime, energy crisis, war, terrorism, Soviet arms race - will always be second. This time around it's Iraq, not crime, or one of the other "fear" selections. Extrapolating from that to say abortion and gay rights, right to own a firearm -not even in the top 7 on the chart, are not issues voters care about very much, is moronic. Political suicide by Party, depending on the issue. A Dem calling for an end to abortion is politically ended. A Republican running for President that wants gun registration is dead.

And candidates within a Party can take 180DEG apart stances on the supposed "2 issues voters care the most about" without instant suicide.

Those of us who spend (too much) time poking around the blogosphere can be forgiven for thinking that immigration is a much bigger issue than it really is. Like libertarianism, science fiction and Alpha males, immigration is a favorite blogosphere obsession.

I live in a college town that's always had a significant international community, much of which is academic in nature. Many of the folks here with strong opinions on immigration are annoyed with the problems that tightening our borders are causing them (trouble getting permission for family to visit, arranging guest speakers from overseas, etc.).

Another silly aspect over the immigration issue is that an amazing fraction of America's more recent Mexican illegal immigrants is currently employed in the construction industry.

Given the horrible housing collapse we're probably facing, they'll surely soon lose their jobs and afterward most will go home again.

So I guess Bush, Alan Greenspan, et. al. can claim some credit for "solving" a large chunk of our illegal immigration problem...

I get the sense that immigration is an issue of particular importance to the Republican base, rather than to the electorate at large. These guys are trying to win a primary, after all.

just putting a new item in "Hate/fear" column

Throughout history, appeals to hate/fear have been effective but it's nice to think that every once in a while people might wake up and think, "You know, I'm really not that much of a coward or an asshole"

Surely the reason is that there are no real
policy differences between the plausible Republican
candidates on the other issues:

a) Iraq - Rudy/Romney/Huckabee all favor permanent
war

b) Economy - all are signed up for the "tax cuts
raise revenue" insanity

c) Health - just an excuse to give taxcuts to
the wealthy

d) Terror - down with civil liberties, up with
torture (well, two cheers for McCain, who at
least talks the anti-torture talk, even though
he caved in on the MCA).

e) Ethics - Rudy and Huckabee live in great big
glass houses on this one. And Romney ? He's
busy bribing religious conservatives.

f) Education - how can any of them talk about
education without raising the specter of the
"Education President" reading My Little Pet
Goat ? Republicans who talk about education or
health or social security are handing the
election to the Dems, who have much more
popular policies and are more trusted on those
issues.

So they're talking about immigration because it's
the last issue where they believe they might be
preferred over the Democrats. A forlorn hope.

Immigration, like abortion and gun control, is one of those issues dominated by a small, but fierce contingent of single-issue voters. Republicans aren't focusing on immigration because a majority of voters consider it to be one of the 3 or 4 biggest issues; it's because a significant bloc of GOP primary voters are going to vote against anyone who even hints at compromise. So they have to cynically court the extremists now and then keep very, very quiet about immigration next fall.

The Democrats have their own set of single-issue voters, but I don't think there's any real comparison in terms of a bloc of passionate single-issue voters whose goals are so thoroughly incompatible with the party's monied interests. The Republican coalition is getting harder and harder for candidates to hold together.

Wow, the "let them eat cake" hangs heavy in the air.

By constructing a StrawmanArgument, MattY is covering for massive PoliticalCorruption. Rather than speaking out against PoliticalCorruption, he's enabling more of it.

The Bush administration and others have made it easy for banks to profit from money earned illegally, and even the FederalReserve wants a slice of money that was earned illegally.

And, all MattY et al can do is play childish games.

Another factor involved is the actions of the MexicanGovernment: they've been able to obtain a great deal of PoliticalPower inside the U.S., and they're using that to push their agenda. They've even explicitly stated that they're going to be using U.S. non-profits to push their goals. Which shouldn't be that difficult, since they already have direct or indirect links to several well-known non-profits.

Why, they've even got an indirect link to a few "progressive" bloggers.

This whole issue gets really complicated when, unlike MattY, you actually know what you're talking about.

Another possibility is that all of the republican candidates except for Paul are pro-war. All are for cutting taxes deficits be damned. All exept McCain and Paul support throwing out the constitution to allow for torture. And all pretty much like the status quo on health care (or wish government played a smaller role).

But the front runners in different ways all have had to repudiate past histories of acting humanely towards illegal immigrants. There may simply be more room for differentiation (possibly through distortion) on this issue.

During the general election though the focus on immigration will presumably be because it is the only issue that they think the public is with them.

TLB, I commend you on your use of double-capitalized phrases with no space between them, which helps us understand HowImportant the GlobalConspiracy is and helps get across the PassionateFervor you feel while you're cranking out your JohnBirch Pamphlets on your homemade PrintingPress.

However, I'm convinced that you could increase your market share by taking advantage of the electronic medium and using Bold Tags for emphasis, rather than CompoundWords.

Just a helpful suggestion.

Why are you looking at a national poll of all likely voters? Isn't the relevant issue what likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa (especially the ones who still haven't made up their minds) care about? That's a very different demographic from all likely voters nationwide.

Also, I think you're missing the importance of the campaign dynamics. Immigration is the one issue where Romney is considerably stronger (by the standards of the Republican base) than both Guiliani and Huckabee. So it should be no surprise that that's what he runs on. He's got lots of cash to run attack ads and mentions it in the debates, so it becomes an important topic in the campaign and forces the other candidates to respond.

By constructing a StrawmanArgument, MattY is covering for massive PoliticalCorruption.

Right on, Lonewacko.

If you're not careful Matt, I'm going to start a blogospheric movement to start calling you Matt "Tammany" Yglesias.

Why, they've even got an indirect link to a few "progressive" bloggers.

See??!!! It's not just a bunch of mad conspiracy theories. Matt "Tammany" Yglesias even has a Spanish surname, I'll remind you all. Coincidence? Whatever. Plus, I'd hardly call wads of $100 bills dropped into safety deposit box only Matt Tammany and the Mexican embassy have the key for a "coincidence."

Using polls for propaganda, shame on you! Criminals did NOT build America; Citizens and LEGAL immigrants built it. Illegal Aliens and Immigration is NOT the same thing. 80% of the American people want an end to anarchy! This is NOT a Democrat, Republican, Independent issue. It's an American Issue.

Illegal aliens are criminals, those who hire them are criminals and those who aid-and-abet them are criminals.

Illegal aliens in America have NO rights. We are required by law to arrest and prosecute, deport them. (Title 8 U.S. Code) To report illegal aliens call the DHS National Hotline 1 866 DHS 2ICE. (1-866-347-2523)

No, matter your political party affiliation, and setting aside your thoughts on issues. We all need to remember what it is to be an American Citizen. We need to make sure our elected representatives obey their Oath of Office and keep their Oath of Allegiance. See http://tinyurl.com/2znnvl Know whom you are voting for.

The Bushco/Wall Street crowd has been hostile to labor at every level. Their open borders policy is just another manifestation of this.

That's why MY crowd has so much invested in the idea that opposition to illegal immigration = racism. That's how they rationalize their own betrayal of the working class.

U.S. immigration levels were at their lowest from 1932 - 1968, an era that coincided with the peak years of labor's political power.

To echo what Elliot Reed said above, Bradford Plumer and Ryan Lizza say it's because GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina really care about the issue a lot.

To add even more strength to Matt's thesis, consider the fact that there is a percentage of voters who are immigrants themselves. Those voters would be very likely to name "Immigration" as their top concern - but in precisely the opposite way the Republican base would. Thereby, artificially inflating the bar that corresponds to "Immigration".

Until someone explains how "more people chasing fewer resources" can be considered sound economic or social policy, I'll continue to lean toward securing our border and enforcing our immigration laws. Indeed, there is no problem confronting this nation that would not be measurably improved by securing our border and enforcing our immigration laws. Overcrowding, congestion taxes, crime, pollution, urban sprawl, lack of affordable housing, failing schools, inadequate health care, vanishing farm land and green space, stagnant or depressed wages, diminishing resources, declining quality of life, all are the result of overpopulation. America's needs to stop being the police force, and the life boat for the rest of the planet! Legal immigration, that which is necessary, prudent, and beneficial to America is not the problem.

MattY can relax and go back to alternating between ignoring this issue, showing his ignorance of this issue, and sipping his lattes. It's not like any of the 14,000+ viewers of this video are ever going to try to ask her that question after she becomes the nominee, only to then upload her response to video sites or anything. And, it's not like the almost 14,000 viewers of youtube.com/watch?v=EiullH5jU1A would try to ask him that should he become the nominee or VP candidate.

It's not like all the Dem candidates are incredibly weak on this issue and all it takes is a few pointed questions to show just how much they're willing to sell out the U.S.

I agree, this is probably an important issue with the Iowa and South Carolina GOP bases.

They're not running on the economy because, except for Ron Paul, they have no solutions. On Iraq, they have no solutions, either, except for Ron Paul, so why would they want to talk about that rather than general statements about "terror" and September 11? Terrorism and immigration can serve as scare tactics that health care cannot, apparently, for that "GOP base."

I think there are issues of less importance that need to take people's minds off the real issues: those issues that everyone would name without thinking twice - war in Iraq... It's #1. That's where all the money goes and people get killed...but this is reality and the consequences americans can watch on CNN or specific documentaries about war veteran's lives after returning home. America is not ready for those consequences.
Economy - job outsourcing is killing it? Think twice! Maybe the fact is that everything here is way to much and way to cheap? Maybe majority should think if they can really afford the thing they are about to buy and is it needed? How many labels say Made in U.S.A. of the items you have bought last monts? And why?
Immigration is something that America could benefit from if resolved wisely...At the moment immigrants are scapegoats for everything: lacking healthcare, poor education level in schools, drug-smuggler gangs, wage killers and whatnot. Is that really the picture? I would guess that there is low percentage of those who understand the process of legal immigration and process that it requires in order to become legal resident. If that process would be less complicated and timeconsuming - republicans in the Debate would have to find another topic to hold on to...I'm not saying that illegal immigration is ok - it is not, but - if there is need for labor (which there is) - let's make it possible and benefit from it! It's meaningless to cry about illegals and meantime eat at the restaurant that is cheap and people working there are smily, friendly but quiet...or go to nail salon, get pampered in oriental athmosphere and count have much have you saved by not going elsewhere - meantime thinking that's ok!
I think that it's crisis to find out that "education" and "family values" are the issues of less imprtance! This is what americans should be really getting stresst out about! That is the base of everything - strong families WITH VALUES, educated people with no need to watch 100 reality shows of somebody's elses life, with no need to "buy 2 for 1", with no fear/prejudice of talking to somebody with an accent...All the anger that people have to against immigrants maybe would be worth to turn onto the fact that college expenses are way to high throughout the USA...
Please read this
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0815-hanson.shtm
and make yourself familiar with
www.zeitgeistmovie.com
and maybe it'll make you think a lil' bit different!

I think there are issues of less importance that need to take people's minds off the real issues: those issues that everyone would name without thinking twice - war in Iraq... It's #1. That's where all the money goes and people get killed...but this is reality and the consequences americans can watch on CNN or specific documentaries about war veteran's lives after returning home. America is not ready for those consequences.
Economy - job outsourcing is killing it? Think twice! Maybe the fact is that everything here is way to much and way to cheap? Maybe majority should think if they can really afford the thing they are about to buy and is it needed? How many labels say Made in U.S.A. of the items you have bought last monts? And why?
Immigration is something that America could benefit from if resolved wisely...At the moment immigrants are scapegoats for everything: lacking healthcare, poor education level in schools, drug-smuggler gangs, wage killers and whatnot. Is that really the picture? I would guess that there is low percentage of those who understand the process of legal immigration and process that it requires in order to become legal resident. If that process would be less complicated and timeconsuming - republicans in the Debate would have to find another topic to hold on to...I'm not saying that illegal immigration is ok - it is not, but - if there is need for labor (which there is) - let's make it possible and benefit from it! It's meaningless to cry about illegals and meantime eat at the restaurant that is cheap and people working there are smily, friendly but quiet...or go to nail salon, get pampered in oriental athmosphere and count have much have you saved by not going elsewhere - meantime thinking that's ok!
I think that it's crisis to find out that "education" and "family values" are the issues of less imprtance! This is what americans should be really getting stresst out about! That is the base of everything - strong families WITH VALUES, educated people with no need to watch 100 reality shows of somebody's elses life, with no need to "buy 2 for 1", with no fear/prejudice of talking to somebody with an accent...All the anger that people have to against immigrants maybe would be worth to turn onto the fact that college expenses are way to high throughout the USA...
Please read this
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0815-hanson.shtm
and make yourself familiar with
www.zeitgeistmovie.com
and maybe it'll make you think a lil' bit different!

So a poll says only 10% of the American public thinks illegal immigration is an important issue?
And may I ask, is that 10 percent comprised mostly of those here illegally? HOW and WHOM did you decide to poll?
The fact is illegal immigration touches the well being of every genuine U.S. Citizen!
Some realize it, some don't. But the corruption of the Social Security database is one item caused by illegal immigration. Another is the enormous increase costs of the provisioning of social services for illegal residents everywhere.
Then there is the cost of the general chaos created by all the pro-illegal alien groups fight for our dollar and privileges they are not enititled to, meant only for citizens. These same pro groups clogg our court system with frivolous
pro-immigrant litigation too. Guess who foots the bill? You do citizen! Stop this chaos!
What is happening now is like a "Social form of Pearl Harbor." Most Americans didn't see that coming either...
We'll pay dearly for illegal immigration too. Many already have. Enforce title 8, of U.S. immigration law with vigor!
Don't be mislead by this propaganda article.
See you at the polls...

As I indicated in another thread, there's a set of more polls about immigration. I think the issue has more salience than Matt says:

"Compared to other problems facing the country, how big a problem is illegal immigration? Would you say it is one of the most important problems facing the country, or is it an important problem but not one of the most important, or is it not all that important, or is it not important at all?"

LA Times/Bloomberg (11/30-12/3 2007)

One of Most Important: 27 %
Important : 54%
Not All That Important: 11%
Not Important: 6%
Unsure: 2%

USA Today/Gallup (7/6-7/8 2007)

"Now, turning to the issue of illegal immigration -- How important is the issue of illegal immigration to you: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?"

Extremely Important: 35%
Very Important: 27%
Somewhat Important: 26%
Not too Important: 7%
Not all Important: 4%

Re: But it's crazy to think that race doesn't enter into people's fears of terrorism.

Huh? If you had said "religion", I would agree with you. But race? Middle Easterners are the same race as Europeans, so how does race enter into it? Meanwhile Mexicans and other Latin Americans are not Muslims and are generally not known for terrorist activity, so how do they enter into that debate? I can see how race has something to do with fears about Hispanic immigration. But I don't see how terrorism does, or how racism (as opposed to religious bigotry) is part of the terrorist paranoia.

"Throughout history, appeals to hate/fear have been effective but it's nice to think that every once in a while people might wake up and think, "You know, I'm really not that much of a coward or an asshole"

Email me when this happens.

This is not how primates think.

"I can see how race has something to do with fears about Hispanic immigration. But I don't see how terrorism does, or how racism (as opposed to religious bigotry) is part of the terrorist paranoia."

It's called linking fears to each other, and yes, it does work on many people. And if you think Americans see Middle Easterners as Europeans, you're nuts. Even Europeans, who are mostly complacent about blacks, don't see them as European. The language and religious difference with Middle Easterners is massive and serious to both Americans and Europeans. In the case of Latin Americans, I think many Americans link them to crime, and by extension, to terrorism.

In any event, it's all mostly subconscious, not rationally thought out, for the vast majority of people who otherwise would be mostly concerned with what video to rent tonight.

Can everyone identify which LogicalFallacy MattY and many of his commenters are engaging in and on which almost all of their "argument" rests? (For those who are stumped, I'll have more to say on that the next time and hopefully earlier in the thread.)

Shouldn't we expect heavierweight thinking from a supposed "pundit" like MattY?

Some people worry about the racial aspects of illegal alien apprehension and enforcement. To be sure we are a racially mixed society in the United States, and it is a sensitive issue as various groups feel targeted.
Yet, the over-riding fact is illegal aliens must be apprehended and deported. To not do so results in a solid disintegration of freedom, safety, and the rule of law in our nation. Just plain chaos! Rome tried unbridled free-for-all immigration centuries ago... Didn't work then, and won't now!
Americans of all creeds, colors, and races would be helping their country if they would just set aside their fears! Do this long enough to pull together and realize their government needs help and cooperaton to continue and sustain a framework in society under which we all can live free of chaos.
Nobody plants a crop field and lets it grow weed infested expecting to harvest a useful crop!
Americans need to ban together and do some serious weeding! Deport illegal aliens!


Comments closed December 26, 2007.

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