The Terrible Bulls

John Hollinger runs the numbers on why the Bulls are so terrible, and it winds up looking pretty mysterious. The Bulls took a mild dip from first in defensive efficiency to sixth in defensive efficiency, but their offense has crumbled from 20th last season to dead last. Indeed, "if they keep this up they will rank as the worst offensive team in history relative to the league." What's more, Hollinger reports that all of Chicago's players have gotten worse on offense, "every key player is performing vastly below his career norms with the exception of Joe Smith." Andres Nocioni? Slightly worse. Luol Deng and Ben Wallace? Somewhat worse. Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas? Much worse. Kirk Hinrich and Thabo Sefolosha? Wildly worse.

This is all the odder for the fact that most of these guys are young players who you'd generically expect to improve, and a couple of them are playing for new contracts after turning down pretty good extension offers in hopes of snagging the big bucks.

The only really plausible theory is that Chris Hayes left the Windy City to become Washington editor of The Nation and the Bulls are too sad to play.

Comments

Alternatively, the Bulls' opponents have now seen the Bulls repeatedly, focused on them, and figured out what drives their offense (beyond luck). It's not uncommon to see players perform unexpectedly well early and then see their production drop as teams see them again and again. In fact, it's a truism.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | December 1, 2007 10:39 AM

Do you really think teams haven't seen much of Hinrich, Gordon, Deng until this year, SCMT? I doubt it. They've been around for long enough for teams to know how they play. They're young, but it's not like they've been sitting the bench for the past few years behind some veterans.

Posted by Al | December 1, 2007 11:03 AM

Chicago is the best team ever when Luol Deng is playing for them. I don't care what the statistics say. Luol Deng is the best player ever. WHenever he is playing CHicago is my favorite team. When he is not playing: "Booo! How dare you bench Luol Deng! You stink!" Luol Deng will pick it up until he ends this season averaging fifty points per game.

Posted by Moral Panicker | December 1, 2007 11:25 AM

Do you really think teams haven't seen much of Hinrich, Gordon, Deng until this year, SCMT?

That's a good point, but--and this might be heavily biased by the fact that I've always thought that the Bulls' roster was overrated--I think Chicago has been tough to "know" because players were improving and the quality of play varied so much. Now we know to stuff Deng and Gordon, and let the others try to score.

Basically, I think Chicago's a mid-40s win team, and always has been. I'm trying to come up with reasons to believe past playoff/end-of-season success is the aberration that needs to be explained.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | December 1, 2007 12:16 PM

How reliable are stats that cover about 15% of the season? Could the team just be performing way, way below its true level in the early going, or is it likely that the Bulls are really this bad?

Also, if you had consulted the Slate.com Manual of Style you would have known to headline this post "Terribull." Or maybe, since this isn't a family blog, "Windy Shitty."

Posted by JB | December 1, 2007 1:09 PM

Thank God the Bulls are horrible this year. That way the season's not a total loss.

Posted by Disgruntled Knick fan | December 1, 2007 1:57 PM

My theory #1 is that Scott Skiles is a disciplinarian jackass whom the players are finally beginning to tune out.

My theory #2 is that having both Deng and Gordon is contract years is fucking with team cohesion and unity of purpose.

My theory #3 is similar to SCMT's, that Chicago hasn't really been as good as they've played the last couple of years, and this year is the return to the mean.

Posted by Petey | December 1, 2007 5:28 PM

Forget the Terribulls. How are the Luvabulls playing this year?

Posted by Luke | December 1, 2007 6:37 PM

I agree with JB. This looks like a textbook case of a statistical fluctuation. Remember when the Wizards were 0-5 and the Warriors were 0-6?

Posted by Luke | December 1, 2007 7:08 PM

This guys are not playing like a team. Starting fromde the head coach to the point guard, they're just running and shooting like the ball is on fire. Maybe the coaching should see some videos os Dallas, Spurs, Argentina or Spain: "How to make your team really play as one, an become a real contender". Ben Gordon is a shorter version of McGrady: He can score 40, but at expenses of a team success.

Posted by Consiglieri | December 2, 2007 2:00 PM