Tune Out

One popular theory as to why the Bulls suck so bad has to do with the idea that the team is tuning out Scott Skiles who has a reputation as a hardass whom everyone hates. The fly in the ointment of this theory is that coaching- or effort-related collapses usually seem to happen on the defensive end, but the decline in the Bulls' defense has been modest and probably attributable to something like the fact that Ben Wallace is a year older and was having some ankle problems at the beginning of the season. The collapse on offense is hard to explain in these terms -- Chicago was a middling offensive team last year based on a lot of jump shots; this year they're also a jump shooting team running a very similar offense, they just can't make any of the shots.

Maybe last season they were just incredibly lucky. Maybe they've just been incredibly unlucky this year. Vulnerabilities to the vagaries of probability has long been considered one of the problems with the jump shot offense, but the scale and uniformity of the problems are striking.

Comments

If they gave Luol Deng more playing time all of their woes would be solved.

Posted by Moral Panicker | December 1, 2007 7:03 PM

It is amazing to me how fine the level is between being really good and stinking in professional sports. I think the distraction of the ongoing Kobe stuff has caused them to not be quite focused on the job at hand. And if that slips a little, then team performance suffers dramatically.

They need to - to borrow an expression - shit or get off the pot on this thing. Either go get Kobe or give up on it and publicly announce that this is the team they are going with. Until then, my guess is they will continue to play at 98% focus, but that just isn't good enough to compete.

Posted by Curtis | December 1, 2007 7:28 PM

When a team that relies on jump-shooting is struggling, though, a psychological component comes into play that makes the poor shooting contagious.

Namely, when your team has been losing a lot, and you see your teammates missing shots, as an individual player you start feeling pressure when the ball comes your way: "Damn, if I don't hit this, we're screwed."

The next sound heard is usually the clank of the ball off the rim.

Posted by Swopa | December 1, 2007 7:39 PM

Goddammit, Yglesias. Will you stop pouring salt on my fucking wounds?

Posted by Freddie | December 1, 2007 7:51 PM

Their crummy shooting has to be considered a statistical fluke. One can theorize that there is a contagious aspect to it. Everyone is shooting badly, tightening up, shooting even worse, a vicious circle.

The meme in Chi papers now is that they are not tough enough. There is probably something to that, using several definitions or markers of tough I think it's more of a competitiveness thing Jordan was Jordan because he was an indomitable competitor. His will to win was unquenchable. So one could say they just are not tough competitors.

Then there is leadership, They have no natural on floor leader. In the end all teams must have a go to guy. Not just for scoring but to feed off of

They didn't even try to develop a low scoring threat, again this offseason. . That's what you go to when the jumper isn't working. The Bulls are an oddly constructed team and odd doesn't often win consistently and it never wins the big prize.

Actually I think Heinrich is their biggest problem. Conceptually, speed, size, just plain talent wise, and now because of huge turnover, foul and scoring problems, physically as well.

Posted by rapier | December 1, 2007 7:51 PM

My impression is similar to rapier's: Hinrich doesn't seem to have any NBA-level skills except possibly passing.

Am I wrong? I don't see him play--I'm just going on stats, which aren't everything.

Posted by matt wilbert | December 1, 2007 8:06 PM

"Actually I think Heinrich is their biggest problem. Conceptually, speed, size, just plain talent wise, and now because of huge turnover, foul and scoring problems, physically as well."

Hinrich is a perfectly adequate, somewhat above average PG. I'd want him on my team.

"Then there is leadership, They have no natural on floor leader. In the end all teams must have a go to guy. Not just for scoring but to feed off of"

The problem on offense is not "leadership". The problem on offense is the lack of a low-post scorer.

This is why Paxson should have pulled the trigger on the Deng-Gasol deal.

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The real problem with the Bulls is Paxson. After assembling a nice team prior to summer of '06, he's made a number of poor decisions, beginning with the essential trade of Chandler for Wallace, which was an idiotic move of the highest order.

Add to that the reluctance to pull the trigger on the Gasol deal.

Add to the the incredible decision to offer Ben Gordon $10m/yr. (Which, of course, is topped for stupidity only by Gordon's even more incredible decision to turn down $10m/yr.)

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Also, Curtis makes two relevant points - the thinness of the line between winning and losing at this level, and the unhelpfulness of the Kobestakes for the Bulls.

And to repeat myself from the previous thread, I think the contract status of Deng and Gordon is an underrated component of the Bulls' woes. Two main guys on a young team playing for their first contract is more than just a slight distraction.

Posted by Petey | December 1, 2007 8:23 PM

um...
paxson did say the kobe trade was off the table. he said that some time ago, and the bulls haven't improved.
the equally young lakers seem to be dealing well with kobe essentially saying that they sucked and he wanted out.
as has been remarked above, teams that rely solely on the jumpshot without a dominant scorer tend to go cold on occasion-it's happened to the bulls several times in the playoffs before, but what's weird is that they can't even beat teams like philly this early in the season.
now most of the trade value has been drained from players like deng, so good luck finding a low post threat.

Posted by jamie | December 1, 2007 9:29 PM

It might also be worth noting that Caron is completely out of control.

Posted by Petey | December 2, 2007 8:45 AM

Yes, I'm a homer, but Heinrich, in the right situation, can be a good PG. He'd be great for, say, the Cavs.

Posted by Freddie | December 2, 2007 9:33 AM

Heinrich is their biggest problem. Conceptually, speed, size, just plain talent wise, and now because of huge turnover, foul and scoring problems, physically as well.

Heinrich is quicker and bigger than people think. That makes him a valuable defensive point guard, at a minimum. And he's not a bad playmaker, he's just not a good one, either.

The Bulls' problems are the lack of a post scorer and the fact that Gordon is a starter for them.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | December 2, 2007 10:37 AM

The Bulls are also a streaky team. Right now they're 4-10. Last year they started 3-9 and at this point were 5-9.

Posted by ostap | December 2, 2007 10:55 AM

Hinrich is a pefectly competent PG.

If Deng gets healthy and plays like he's capable, a lot of these problems will disappear.

Posted by a | December 2, 2007 12:12 PM

as a mentions, this is a bit of a habit. The first year they made the playoffs they started 0-9 and "improved" to 2-13.

part of the problem is that they play all of a week or two at home before going on a road trip to california and texas for two weeks while barnum and bailey take over the united center. (seriously). They've historically done awful on this trip.

Talk to me again in 2 weeks if they don't improve.

Posted by dbt | December 3, 2007 1:15 AM

"They've historically done awful on this trip."

They had some pretty successful circus trips during the Jordan era...

Posted by Petey | December 3, 2007 1:24 AM