Blowing Up Miami

Back in the summer of 2005 I was giddy about the way Pat Riley was wrecking the Heat's future in a desperate and doomed-to-fail effort to win the championship in 2006. Unfortunately, he actually did win the championship. But now, as John Hollinger observes, the team is totally screwed and needs to blow things up:

All year, speculation has had Miami trading its expiring contracts (Jason Williams, Ricky Davis, Dorell Wright) to get another player and kick-start a playoff push. But actually, the Heat needs to go in the opposite direction. They should begin unloading the likes of Mark Blount, Williams, Davis, and perhaps even Udonis Haslem, tell Wade to take a break until he's truly healthy, and figure out how to get back into the mix another year or two down the road. Because at 8-27, it sure as heck ain't happening this year.

Sounds like good advice to me. I'd keep Haslem, though, he's young and pretty good. You just need to let the expiring contracts expire, let the team be bad, get a draft pick, let Wade get healthy, etc. I'm not sure what you can get in exchange for "the likes of Mark Blount," though. He doesn't seem like an in-demand player.

Comments

Draft picks mean waiting for people to mature, and Wade can opt out in three years. Furthermore, Miami ish't going to have sufficient cap space as long as they have a certain $20 mil. millstone around their necks. They're in a somewhat similar position to the Knicks of a while ago, who just needed to wait for Ewing to come off the books.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | January 10, 2008 3:41 PM

they should tank and try and get Derrick Rose or Beasley.

Basically end up doing the San Antonio thing: having one super awesome player that misses most of the season causing the team to have one fluky bad year and get the top pick, then pairs top pick with awesome player to dominate (sort of) the league for a decade.

Oh and they should get rid of Riley.

Oh, and go Blazers!

Posted by matthewcc | January 10, 2008 3:43 PM

3 years from now, whoever they picked at the top of the lottery this year will be (should be?) good, and shaq will be gone, so they can promise wade to use up his cap space to sign some other good player.
but, they will be mediocre at best for the next two years, no way around it, so it's unclear if wade will be so frustrated by that mediocrity that he wants to leave regardless.

Posted by jamie | January 10, 2008 3:50 PM

What SCMT said.

Miami doesn't need to blow it up now. They need to plan for 2010, when Shaq comes off the books. And part of that is keeping D-Wade happy, since he can opt out the same year. I would assume D-Wade doesn't want to go through three years of 20-win seasons.

Posted by Al | January 10, 2008 3:58 PM

BTW, Blount and Haslem's contracts are up in 2010 also, so that's another $15 million off the books that year - total of $35 million.

Posted by Al | January 10, 2008 4:01 PM

Agreed to a point.

Shut down Wade, get him healthy.

Tank this year, get a Top 3 pick, get Beasley, Rose, Gordon, or Mayo.

Flip your expiring contracts for some players who will help next year and in the future.

Do everything you can to get rid of Mark Blount - which is impossible, unless you'll give up a first rounder or take a bad contract back, because Blount is a cancer. Best example of a player who works very hard to get a big contract, and then plain quits on you. Not an awful player, but an awful human being, an embarrassment to mankind.

Oh yeah, and while you're at it:

TRADE SHAQ

He's toast. So trade him, if you can get a taker. Because his cap number is killing you.

And yeah, keep Haslem - dude can play.

Posted by TheCarpetmuncher | January 10, 2008 4:03 PM

They're in a somewhat similar position to the Knicks of a while ago, who just needed to wait for Ewing to come off the books.

At least that worked out in the end, though.

TRADE SHAQ He's toast. So trade him, if you can get a taker.

Ha! There's not an owner in the league who'd let his GM take Shaq's salary, even if there were a GM that dumb.

Posted by Antid Oto | January 10, 2008 4:09 PM

I agree with matthewcc: this has shades of the Spurs getting Tim Duncan all over it. Only I don't know if anyone in this draft projects as a Duncan.

And if they do want to part with Haslem, please give Ed Stefanski up in Philly a call. We have plenty of expiring deals!

Posted by dday | January 10, 2008 4:10 PM

Of course San ANtonio also had a nice set of role players in place to go with Duncan and Robinson, much better situation than Miami is in.

Posted by Eric K | January 10, 2008 4:13 PM

They have a few guys they like (outside of Wade, obviously) in Dorell Wright, Daquan Cook, and Haslem. So shut Wade down for the season, let Wright and Cook get long PT (accelerate their learning curve, basically), and then grab a top draft pick and go for a Big there, and you have a real nice foundation.

The past 2 years, when Wright has gotten 30 minutes or more, he's averaged 13 points, 10 boards, 4 assists, and something like 2 blocks and a steal. Develop him so you can get him playing 30 minutes every game next year.

Cook has a nice stroke but is real erratic and doesn't move the ball well. Again, play him now so he'll be more consistent next year (remains to be seen if he'll figure out ball movement, unfortunately).

Shaq says he intends to play out his contract, but I don't see how that's possibly true. He hasn't shown one iota of desire in his actions to actually do the things necessary to play at an effective level at this point in his career.

Posted by Michael | January 10, 2008 4:16 PM

"There's not an owner in the league who'd let his GM take Shaq's salary, even if there were a GM that dumb"

Kevin McHale?

Posted by ostap | January 10, 2008 4:19 PM

Ha! There's not an owner in the league who'd let his GM take Shaq's salary, even if there were a GM that dumb.

Isiah, Pat Riley on line four for you!

All kidding aside, they are stuck with Shaq's fat ass for the duration of that deal. Overpaying him absurdly on the back end was the right thing to do at the time, and it worked. But even then it was clear as day to anyone with half a brain that this would happen. All big men start to break down in their early 30s, and most of them aren't as fat or lazy as Shaq.

This is the cost of that title. I really don't fault them, because when you run a basketball team you're supposed to try to win a title. But now it's time to pay the piper, and the universe doesn't owe Pat Riley a solution to the problem he created. Which is why he's quitting to let someone else deal with it.

Posted by Jake H. | January 10, 2008 4:23 PM

Ha! There's not an owner in the league who'd let his GM take Shaq's salary, even if there were a GM that dumb.

Isiah, Pat Riley on line four for you!

All kidding aside, they are stuck with Shaq's fat ass for the duration of that deal. Overpaying him absurdly on the back end was the right thing to do at the time, and it worked. But even then it was clear as day to anyone with half a brain that this would happen. All big men start to break down in their early 30s, and most of them aren't as fat or lazy as Shaq.

This is the cost of that title. I really don't fault them, because when you run a basketball team you're supposed to try to win a title. But now it's time to pay the piper, and the universe doesn't owe Pat Riley a solution to the problem he created. Which is why he's quitting to let someone else deal with it.

Posted by Jake H. | January 10, 2008 4:23 PM

Kevin McHale?

Pat Riley already unloaded Antoine Walker on him. How much stupid can you expect from just one man?

Posted by Antid Oto | January 10, 2008 4:26 PM

Actually, I could see Clay Bennett pushing Sam Presti to pick up Shaq. This would both further alienate the Seattle fans and allow for a giant expiring contract when the Key Arena lease runs out.

Posted by ben | January 10, 2008 4:28 PM

Actually, I could see Clay Bennett pushing Sam Presti to pick up Shaq.

So it would be Kurt Thomas's expiring deal plus what? Wally Szczerbiak? I guess that saves Miami one year on a terrible deal for a washed-up player, but it's no huge improvement.

Posted by Antid Oto | January 10, 2008 4:33 PM

Figuring out the best way to rebuild the Heat into future contenders is not a hard problem in the abstract. There are small things like whether to keep or deal Haslem, but that's pretty minor. The only interesting properties of the situation involve the personalities involved and their understanding of the situation. Do the Miami GM and owner recognize that with their salary cap situation they cannot compete at a playoff level unless they get lucky with some top draft picks or until after the 2010 season? Even if they realize that, are they willing to deal with the blowback from the media and the fans if they take that path? Perhaps they will labor under the misconception that they can try to patch things up in the meanwhile... that way Knicks-esque disaster lies. Finally, you have to worry about Riley's ego, Wade's potential frustration and breaking free, emotionally, of the Shaq era. I think these things are far more tricky to deal with when you are wrapped up in the situation emotionally instead of occupying a more objective viewpoint.

Posted by mpowell | January 10, 2008 4:37 PM

Jake is right they knew what they were doing, what make stheir situation unusual is Wade was so young. Usually when teams take this apporach they get a bunch of guys in their late primes. Wade now has to live through the crap years waiting out the deal.

Michael, SA had a lot better talent than that, they were basically a 60 win team that was missing it's best player and then got him back while adding Duncan. Plus They didn't have an albatross like the broken down statue formally known as Shaq taking up 1/3rd of their payroll and a starting spot.

The other issue for Miami is that they will get a great player with a top 3 pick, but still one who is a college sophmore heading into the season, not a 4 year college graduate ready to step in at a high level like Duncan was. Brnadon Roy (mostly due to college injuries) may be the last top draft pick to play 4 years of college and step in at a near all star level that we see. The kind of guys Miami gets will be coming into his own in 2 or 3 years, hopefully for their sake Wade will see enough future potential to not opt out when he can.

Posted by Eric K | January 10, 2008 4:56 PM

Antid,

I might be wrong, but I think that Kurt Thomas may be putting up better numbers than Shaq at the moment. He's also offer lot more leadership and is a lot more motivated.

I'm not encouraging the trade; merely suggesting it as a Seattle-ite's dystopian nightmare.

Posted by ben | January 10, 2008 5:12 PM

And I am wrong. Shaq is putting up a little better stats than Kurt Thomas at the moment.

Posted by ben | January 10, 2008 5:16 PM

Oh, and go Blazers!

I wonder if Petey still thinks its too "meta" to talk about the first place Blazers.

Posted by Tiparillo | January 10, 2008 5:39 PM

Remember that tanking doesn't necessarily mean getting a top pick. A lot of people thought both Boston and Memphis were tanking last year, and both fell out of the top three picks. That said, there is a lot of talent coming into the NBA next year(so long as the freshmen leave after one year), so even having the 5th pick is a good deal.

Trading Shaq will be near impossible. It will be interesting what type of role he takes if the Heat were to draft a young big man such as Deondre Jordan or Roy Hibbert.

Posted by Justin | January 10, 2008 6:28 PM

Miami's fine. Look, Reily's plan worked: We won a championship (we might have won two if O'Neal and Wade had been healthy in Game 7 v. Detroit that first year). So now we'll go through a few lean seasons and, so long as we keep Wade, we'll be in a position to acquire new superstars, both by free agency and the draft.

I'll take that every day over, say, the Miami Dolphins, who were consistently good for decades, without ever being good enough, and then finally totally falling apart with virtually nothing to build from (thank goodness we now have cap space -- and Parcells!).

Posted by Daniel, Esq. | January 10, 2008 6:37 PM

The trade in '05 was not particularly costly for the Heaters. They gave up Eddie Jones and Rasual Butler and a couple second-round draft picks and got back a lot of hungry veteran talent (J-Will, Walker, Posey). The trade that really "mortgaged" their future was the Shaq trade in '04. How would you like to have Wade, Butler, and Odom on the same team today?

Posted by nbt | January 10, 2008 6:51 PM

ben: You're right, it would be a great deal for Miami in many ways, actually. And Seattle would only do it if they really were trying to make their fans mad enough to riot.

Posted by Antid Oto | January 10, 2008 8:06 PM

All Miami needs is a healthy Shaq and good point guard. If Wade was more of a team player, he'd volunteer to play point guard again, since he has historically played very well at the position, but there's little point in doing that this season, but Alonzo isn't around to fill in for Shaq when he misses his usual time during the season.

The Heat are probably lost this season, though they still are only 10 games out in the East, which isn't unsurmountable by any stretch of the imagination. Surrounding Wade and Shaq with guys like Davis, Cook, Wright and Haslem really was a good idea, so what Hollinger is probably really thinking is that the Heat should tank, get an elite point guard in the draft (perhaps even Derrick Rose), and make another shot at it next season with a healthier (and hopefully fitter) Shaq.

He knows as well as anyone that moving Blount is near impossible, and there's no really no point in moving those other guys, because if Shaq and Wade are healthy, with the supporting cast they have plus a point guard, Miami is a contender in the East.

Posted by Jimm | January 10, 2008 9:30 PM

Jimm is right. With a decent pick, a healthy Wade, and some quality free agent singings at power forward/point guard with the room offered by the Davis/JW cap space, Miami would be back. Shaq's numbers, for 30 minutes a game, 35 in the playoffs, just aren't that bad.

Posted by bjk | January 11, 2008 12:26 AM

Miami should not tank. As Justin says, there's no guarantee of a top 4 draft pick. Let Wade play this year as long as there's no chance of permanent injury, and we'll see if, as usual, Shaq has played himself into shape for the second half of the season. The only way to "blow the team up" is to get rid of Wade. Even if it were possible to get rid of Shaq, I wouldn't call it blowing up the team. While I like Haslem, everyone on the Heat, other than Wade, is a role player. Telling Miami to "figure out how to get in the mix in the next year or two" is pretty obvious advice and not very helpful.

How would you like to have Wade, Butler, and Odom on the same team today?

We'd be a perennial playoff team with no rings, quite a bit like the Wizards. No thanks.

Posted by Just Karl | January 11, 2008 9:28 PM

Yo Julio Iglesias - Please see if Pat and Micky will take one Zach Randolph for Blount and an expiring contract. Or how about Randolph and Q-Rich for Shaq. It can't make the Knicks any worse and it might actually work out for the Heat.

Posted by PDaddy | January 12, 2008 2:35 PM