Huge death toll in Iraq, as members of a messianic cult of some sort attack fellow Shiites celebrating Ashura.
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Down South
19 Jan 2008 03:31 pm
Comments (8)
a similar attack occurred last year: were the iraqi security forces prepared this year? is this messianic cult outside the purview of the badr brigade or JAM?
The MSNBC article has this absurd phrase:
"The main insurgent group, al-Qaida in Iraq"
AQI has NEVER been "the main insurgent group" or even one of the largest. It has been marginal throughout its existence, amounting to an estimated 7% of the insurgency. While the insurgency in general has been a "networked" set of various groups, AQI has never been the most important.
"...How big, then, is AQI? The most persuasive estimate I've heard comes from Malcolm Nance, the author of The Terrorists of Iraq and a twenty-year intelligence veteran and Arabic speaker who has worked with military and intelligence units tracking al-Qaeda inside Iraq. He believes AQI includes about 850 full-time fighters, comprising 2 percent to 5 percent of the Sunni insurgency. "Al-Qaeda in Iraq," according to Nance, "is a microscopic terrorist organization."
See Nance's article "Al Qaeda in Iraq – Heroes, Boogeymen or Puppets?" here:
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/07/al-qaeda-in-iraq-heroes-boogey/
Huge death toll? It's a little less than the death toll at Waco, perpetrated by Yglesias's comrades, no?
Of course, commentators will be quick to point out that the dead at Waco brought it on themselves, and that they were no-account Christians anyway, so there.
Huge death toll? It's a little less than the death toll at Waco, perpetrated by Yglesias's comrades, no?
Of course, commentators will be quick to point out that the dead at Waco brought it on themselves, and that they were no-account Christians anyway, so there.
I do have to agree that 68 is not a "huge death toll" vis-a-vis the usual conflicts and bombings in Iraq. Large, maybe, but not huge. Relative to the number of people involved in the Ashura worship, it would seem not to be that significant.
However, it would seem, on checking, that the figures Matt cites are lower than actual. From Antiwar.com (citing major media sources):
"Soldiers of Heaven (Jund al-Samaa) clashes took place across much of the Basra. As many as 80 sect members were killed there, including their leader, while another 100 were arrested. Another 17 civilans and security personnel were also killed. At least 117 were reported wounded.
Another religious sect, Ansar Ahmad al-Yamani, after clashes between sect members, who are Shi’ites, and security forces left 30 dead, including 10 policemen, and 82 wounded in Nassiriya. Last Ashuraa, similar clashes left hundreds dead, including the sect’s leader."
It was a seriously bad Friday in Iraq, compared to recent months:
"Friday: 1 US Soldier, 171 Iraqis Killed; 213 Iraqis Wounded"
Juan Cole has details of the events on his blog:
I found this interesting as well there:
"Basra Police Chief Denies Iran Mischief in Iraq
The USG Open Source Center translates an interview with the police chief of Basra, Staff Maj-Gen. Abdul Jalil Khalaf. Therein, Khalaf denies that Iran is playing a negative role and stirring turmoil in the southern port city of 1.5 million. Khalaf was appointed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki about six months ago. He is therefore not running interference for a local Basra militia with ties to Iran, e.g. In fact, he has been scathing on the Shiite militias and has escaped numerous assassination attempts. Al-Maliki has correct relations with Iran, but his Da`wa Party is not as close to Tehran as some others."
In other words, this supports my concept that Maliki is now on the outs with Iran, and his days are numbered. The interesting thing is that the Dawa Party delegates actually joined with al-Sadr and some Sunnis on the recent demand for a timetable for US withdrawal and the oil disbursements, according to Cole's blog!
Meanwhile, the opium problem in Afghanistan is now spreading to Iraq, where Salafi jihadists control a number of opium fields in Diyala province.
It's still safer than Philadelphia, though, am I right?
Freedom on the march!
Comments closed February 02, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
So much for the Comprehensive Doctrine.
Posted by gregor | January 19, 2008 4:06 PM