If I'm reading this CNN entrance poll correctly, this looks like a clear win for Hillary Clinton in Nevada.
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Entrance Poll
19 Jan 2008 03:26 pm
Comments (24)
As of 3:38 EST, the total number of respondents polled was 771, which seems a tad small to be drawing conclusions from in my opinion.
Intoxination has Obama up to 2%, 48-46:
http://www.intoxination.net/node/8235
A win, but she still polls like crap among independents. Good luck come November, democrats.
The NVDems site has Hillary up 50-45 with 35% reporting.
I can't tell if they have at-large numbers included or not.
Edwards is pulling only 5%, which suggests that his support from the entrance poll is going mainly to Obama. Which, in turn, suggests that mine and other analyses of where Edwards' vote would go were he to leave the race might be wrong - Edwards may be able to direct his vote to Obama. (This likely does not apply to SC.)
Yeah, these results are stable. At 40%, she's up 6. It's a win for Clinton; the question is if it's by 3 or 7 points.
Yeah, these results are stable. At 40%, she's up 6. It's a win for Clinton; the question is if it's by 3 or 7 points.
I'm not so sure. Those at large sites could easily alter the vote distribution even after a long period of stability. Certainly looks good for Clinton now, however.
The Clintons sure do close elections well. The "fairy tale" remark and tears in NH. The "Obama hearts Reagan" blast in NV. Too bad it's all so much bullshit. Time for Obama to bust out the "Hillary Clinton is too lazy to read the Iraq intelligence and a big liar" card. Fortunately for Obama that charge has the virtue of being true. Yippee-kai-ay Clintons.
DivGuy ... my guess is that in caucuses, the Edwards voters probably have Obama as a second choice, but in primaries, most of them prefer Clinton. Maybe in a low-turnout primary they would prefer Obama.
One thing we know: Edwards is toast.
Sic Transit Gloria Petey.
"Certainly looks good for Clinton now, however."
Yup.
But without knowing who's yet to report...
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Clinton seems to have held her own at the at-large precincts, which should be enough for a win.
As long as Obama stays close like this, I don't think it will be much of a setback. Hillary was always way ahead in Nevada until recently. He can still pic up some momentum with a big win in South Carolina
"One thing we know: Edwards is toast. Sic Transit Gloria Petey."
I'll wait for SC to make any such determinations, but if Edwards really is toast, welcome to your new Democratic nominee, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Okay, they're gonna call it for clinton pretty soon now, I think.
Alas, you may be right.
This is very disappointing.
They've already called it. Hillary won. The only question is how much. If it's only 5 like it is now, that's not bad for Obama.
Bad day for the Democratic Party. Good day for Petey. I heavily bet HRC to win NV at Intrade.
This result is pretty bad for Obama. Not on the face of it; I expect only a 50-45 (rough) split. Which, though disappointing, has less effect because now we're just delegate counting.
The issue is that, as someone pointed out, Edwards gets the small remainder. Which must be small. Even if he doesn't drop out, supporters of his are going to be abandoning ship like he's the new Kucinich. Nationally, that doesn't hurt too much, but in South Carolina, they all go to Clinton. Obama needs to win South Carolina convincingly to stop Clinton's momentum going into Feb 5; I still think he'll pull it out, but by less than 5%.
She'll be at 2:1 odds at Intrade by the end of today.
So what happens now?
The Clintons will try to hang Obama's erroneous prediction around his neck. Obama will have to do something; if I were advising him, I'd tell him to respond forcefully to Bill Clinton--who's been running awfully fast and loose in his comments about Obama these last couple days.
Five points is a still pretty decent lead. Now she's going to win South Carolina.
It's always nice to see how forgiving voters are when it comes to race baiting and disenfranchisement.
The gun is cocked and squarely aimed at our feet, but I guess we have to wait until Feb 5 to pull the trigger.
The good news of a Clinton win is that I don't have to waste any of my time any more reading these blogs & volunteering & donating in politics, because the system will have sent a pretty good message to please leave things alone and let the insiders do it, and that's apparently what a lot of people want.
I guess if it's trending HRC, I better hope that it ain't McCain.
"So what happens now?"
Obama wins SC. Team Clinton successfully ghettoizes that victory as being an AA win.
Clinton gets a bit above 50% on 2/5. The campaign continues with low level media attention as everyone but the die-hards realize that Clinton is the nominee.
An anti-Clinton backlash begins, but comes too late to make any difference.
The thing that's irritating me right now is not that Hillary is such a sleaze. I'm used to that. I've had to vote for the lesser of two evils every election I've ever voted in, so I shouldn't be too disappointed that I'll have to do the same this November.
No, the thing bothering me now is this: Only the modern Democrats could be so colossally stupid as to nominate the only person in their party who has no chance to beat the Republicans after 8 years of George W. Bush. It will be interesting to see who they can find to nominate in '12 who will be less electable. "Mike Dukakis - Tanned, Rested, and Ready!"
We're going to get a conservative majority on the Supreme Court that is going to last a generation, and the damage from which will last for generations more. And do you think President McCain will get us out of Iraq? Or keep us out of Iran? Or whatever country gets labeled Evil next time?
But at least we won't have "rolled the dice" and "taken a chance" on Obama. Gosh, something bad might happen if we did that!
We truly get the government we deserve.
Comments closed February 02, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
They didn't poll the at-large sites. So which is why they're not calling it. The last results I saw had Clinton up about 5%.
Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | January 19, 2008 3:38 PM