Everything's Coming Up Rudy

John Heileman says that despite it all Rudy Giuliani's situation now looks pretty good. Ross tries to pour some cold water on that, but I think Giuliani could easily close the narrow gap that now exists between him and McCain in Florida.

The problem for Giuliani, however, is that the only way for him to win in Florida or anywhere else if for their to be enough candidates in the field for someone with his record to sneak through with a pretty thin plurality. In Florida he'll likely have Huckabee, McCain, and Romney in the field as three viable pro-life alternatives, plus a pro-life Ron Paul soaking up some votes. It's hard to imagine that happening over and over again in enough states for Giuliani to win a majority of delegates. More realistically, Rudy might win a couple of big clutches of delegates, taking them off the table, and raising the odds of a brokered convention scenario.

Comments

Giuliani, unlike McCain, has a constituency among the voting public. If he can connect with them, it's quite possible that there'll be a four-way tie coming into the convention.

Posted by MattF | January 16, 2008 6:06 PM

It'll also be hard for Rudy to find a state besides Florida filled with so many displaced New Yorkers, a demographic that is probably the most receptive to Rudy's unique blend of being an asshole and being pro-gay/baby killing.

Posted by Ben | January 16, 2008 6:07 PM

I keep coming back to the theory that the controllers of the Republican Party don't have a dog in this fight. They plan to sit out 2008 and have a white-horse candidate ready in 2012. In any case they don't like Huckabee, Romeny has disappointed them, and they fear that Giuliani might try to set up his own authoritarian regime not under their control. So they are sitting back, watching the candidates gouge each others' eyes out, and definitely not picking a winner as they did with W.

Cranky

Posted by Cranky Observer | January 16, 2008 6:15 PM

I know it's fashionable to laugh at those who claim this is all good news for Rudy, but, in fact it is good news for Rudy.

The bad news is that it's the *only* good news for Rudy (so that Heileman is wrong to say things look "good" for him). While the dynamics of the GOP race have played out in such a way so that he isn't out of it, his candidacy has taken a rather sizable hit in popularity. In short, he's theoretically still alive - but not in any other sense.

And I have to disagree with MattF above. McCain *does* have a constituency with the voting public. Unfortunately for him, his constituency among conservative Republicans - who will decide the GOP nomination - is pretty small...

Posted by McKingford | January 16, 2008 6:31 PM

When the rivers run dry, the fish think that they are birds.

Posted by Confucius | January 16, 2008 6:44 PM

Don`t forget Thompson! He might beat Rudy in Florida. It`s a six man race to the bottom with these guys. Pass the popcorn.

Posted by profbacon | January 16, 2008 6:44 PM

I'm one of the few (the only?) Rudy supporter among the commenters, and even I think Heileman is going too far. Nobody's run away with it and Rudy's still alive, and I think that's what his campaign was counting on. But they weren't counting on the bogus December story regarding expenses and Judi, which (even though the story turned out to be completely bogus) sapped a lot of strength from his candidacy - and which (IMO) largely caused his collapse in some of the states that he probably would have hoped to do better, even if not winning, like NH.

Posted by Al | January 16, 2008 6:46 PM

There's been nothing but good news for Rudy in the last month, and he's nearing inevitabilty.

Posted by John Emerson | January 16, 2008 7:28 PM

I don't get it... how is this good news for John McCain?

Posted by cminus | January 16, 2008 7:32 PM

But will a brokered convention HELP or HURT the Republicans? It means a longer period of focused infighting, but more media attention.

Posted by Anthony Damiani | January 16, 2008 7:43 PM

I'm not really sure what this phrase means: ..."I think Giuliani could easily close the narrow gap that now exists between him and McCain in Florida."

How will he easily do this? Will he send around gunmen to threaten voters? Will he campaign in Florida for months beforehand... oops, he's already done that and he's in third to fourth place. Hmm, perhaps he should have used his powers to easily climb to first in Iowa and in New Hampshire. I would guess that easily coming in ahead of Paul in South Carolina will put four stakes in the vampire's heart. And I don't get why MY thinks the pro-choice Republicans are some powerful force looking to Giuliani to save them. Giuliani has one issue, 9/11. I see no reason it should work any better in Florida, where Republicans are being hurt by the real estate fall out as well as Dems, than it worked anywhere else. He should have run in 2002, if that was his strategy, for the Senate.

Posted by roger | January 16, 2008 7:43 PM

But will a brokered convention HELP or HURT the Republicans? It means a longer period of focused infighting, but more media attention.

Posted by Anthony Damiani | January 16, 2008 7:44 PM

plus a pro-life Ron Paul soaking up some votes

Soaking up votes? Please, Matt. Ron Paul - the only candidate who's actually pro-African American, is going to take Florida... and California, and everywhere damn else, on his way to his historic presidential run...

Or are you not reading your own comment sections any more?

Viva la R-love-ution!

Run, Ron, Run!

Posted by SoCalJustice | January 16, 2008 8:14 PM

Well, SoCal, it may be good news for Ron Paul, but I'm sure you will agree that it is definitely good news for George W. Bush. It always is.

Posted by Jeff S. | January 16, 2008 8:20 PM

"Or are you not reading your own comment sections any more?"

This show you how stupid this guy is - he thinks Matt reads this stuff.

socal is referring to the freak show trolling he did in the Ron Paul thread, which generated God knows how many pointless posts from Paul supporters.

It was a troll's heaven, so naturally he seeks to reproduce it here.

He's almost as big a nitwit as Chris Ford and almost as big a troll as SLC.

Almost.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | January 16, 2008 8:27 PM

Ahh Richard, flattery will get you everywhere.

The feeling's mutual.

Except I'm not a psychotic ex-con, so I've got that going for me.

This show you how stupid this guy is

Says the person with zero sarcasm meter.

You're a peach, Dick.

Posted by SoCalJustice | January 16, 2008 9:06 PM

I'm sorry, I never gave Rudy a chance in hell of winning. Too liberal for the conservative base, to conservative for the general electorate. He is incapable of winning either the nomination nor the general election. I know this and the Republicans know this, which is why the talk of '06 was of "dark horse" candidates like Fred Thompson saving the party.

Posted by freddie mac | January 16, 2008 9:34 PM

The US of A has never had a woman, a black, or an ITALIAN as a serious Presidential Candidate. It's not just that a whole heckuva lot of Americans think Italians are well, a tad unsavory, a whole lot more think N.Y. Italians are doubly so. Yes, we love our Italian actors, restauranteurs, etc., etc. But, yet, all along, this hard-ironed prejudice has somehow escaped the attention of the punditocracy. It's why I've thought from the beginning that the Benito Giuliani train wasn't the furious, unstoppable locomotive a lot of people said it was. If the whole country was made up of guys named Tony sloppily eating Big Macs, blasting Led Zep and tailgating on Route #22 in Jersey, I'd say- "Nice to see ya, President Giuliani"..but it ain't.

Posted by Trevor | January 16, 2008 10:20 PM

i just heard an interview on npr with the head of pew research center (i believe) reporting the results of a new poll. he said adolph guiliani is sucking wind in florida, polling around ten percent. he's about the same nationwide, and his favorable numbers have dropped every month. another guest, a professor at clemson, reported that his polling, which began in the fall, had guiliani going from first place then to less than three percent now in south carolina. so guiliani is finished.

Posted by english teacher | January 16, 2008 10:20 PM

Trevor ain't votin' for a dictator till he's a proper WASP dictator.

Posted by Davis X. Machina | January 16, 2008 10:23 PM

The media (inluding you, Matt Iglesias) is really starting to get on my nerves with all your asinine predictions and the way you sway with the wind like weathervanes. I have never lost so much respect for the media as I have during this primary season. Give me a break, why don't you tell some real stories about Rudy like how he co-opted the voting process in places like NJ, FL, CT, Delaware, and NY so that they are now winner-take-all states just so he can garner delegates without having to actually campaign like everybody else is working so hard to do. If he wins Fl in this cynical and contemptuous fashion (the contempt being toward his electorate), I'll be so disgusted I'll be fit to be tied. Or why can't somebody in the media point out how insane his tax proposal is, especially in conjunction with his warmongering (how do we pay for an even larger war with even less money in the coffers, could you please tell me?) I have faith in the American republican electorate that they're not as taken in by his spin as you media idiots are. It's all about spin, why are you giving his the time of day?

Posted by lisainnyc | January 16, 2008 10:33 PM

And as for the Judi/cop detail scandal -- maybe the "cover up" of the funds for the cop detail part of the story was vindicated, but the fact remains -- he did actually use policemen to walk her dog and to taxi her around with taxpayer dollars while she was his mistress. This is shameful, even if he didn't try to hide it. And I don't see how it's any less shameful than what Clinton did. Who wants more of that sense of entitlement in the white house? And can't people see that his whole campaign strategy is based on the same sense of entitlement? That his belief is that even if the republican electorate doesn't want him, he's going to win the most delegates by skillfully playing the numbers game?

Posted by lisainnyc | January 16, 2008 10:42 PM

Yes sir but this Giuliani fellow possesses the one important quality which unites the disparate parts of the GOP: the libs hate him passionately.

For Republicans today that is the quality that matters most.

Posted by Linus | January 16, 2008 10:53 PM

That flurry of bad that hit Rudy a month ago (not limited to dog walking) would have been a series of firestorms but for his sinking fortunes. Seriously, how's he going to overcome making the lofts board pay for his security, dog walking for the mistress, not to mention the Giuliani Partners client list (do you really think it stays secret if he gets close to the nomination?).

He has no prayer. He'll get less that 10% in Florida, as voters there (even ones who might prefer him) decide to make their votes actually count.

Posted by drinkof | January 16, 2008 11:36 PM

"Except I'm not a psychotic ex-con, so I've got that going for me."

Can't prove it by your comments here.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | January 16, 2008 11:57 PM

Well, Dick, you happen to be expert on that topic, so perhaps you're onto something.

Who knew that after months and months of spittle-flecked ranting, you might finally have a point...

Posted by SoCalJustice | January 17, 2008 12:07 AM

Rudy's unique blend of being an asshole and being pro-gay/baby killing.

You forgot 'tolerant of non-whites being shot and brutalized by cops to show them who's boss', which does have a constituency in the South, albeit under the guise of 'he cleaned up New York' or 'he's tough on law and order'.

But now I think terrorists could crash planes into a Miami skyscraper while Rudy's campaigning there and John McCain would get the bump.

Posted by pseudonymous in nc | January 17, 2008 3:21 AM

I kind of objected to Matt's (and Kos's) urging of Democrats to vote the Mittster in Michigan. They should have voted Rudy. The Mittster is still a somewhat likable and very competent if unprincipled technocrat who has a stable personal life and success in the private sector.

Rudy, on the other hand, is by all objective measure an asshole, completely unlikable, in love with endless war and still saying crazy things like tax cuts lead to increased revenue.

Who WOULDN'T want to campaign against him?

Posted by Murky | January 17, 2008 4:51 AM

Re Richard Steven Hack

"He's almost as big a nitwit as Chris Ford and almost as big a troll as SLC.

Almost."

The kettle calling the pots black.

Posted by SLC | January 17, 2008 8:41 AM

On the twelfth ballot, the Republicans nominate

(drum roll)

"Jeb" Bush.

And the convention goes wild! Happy days are here again!

Posted by Jeffrey Davis | January 17, 2008 8:53 AM