Iowa BHTV

Jon Chait and I talk about the caucuses.

Comments

I feel as though all your posts are starting to sound the same.

Posted by minderbender | January 5, 2008 1:37 AM

I think the point you are missing about Obama's "uniter" rhetoric is that the republican coalition, and American politics generally, is in a state of flux. There are a lot of people in this country that are unhappy with our current direction, but don't know what they want instead. In this kind of environment, a candidate that seizes the mantle of unity and reasonableness has a real opportunity to build new coalitions and constituencies, centered around a new definition of what is "reasonable."

In other words, I think Obama's rhetoric is more concerned with shifting the center, ala Reagan and FDR, than moving to the center ala Clinton.

Posted by Leo | January 5, 2008 2:28 AM

I fear that people are taking Huckabee's populist notes too seriously. 80% of his voters were evangelical Christians, who made up 60% of the Republican electorate. And even there he only got 46% of a very small electorate of activists. In addition he had support from the network of Christian conservative homeschoolers. Even the South Carolina primary won't have such a high rate of participation (2000 exit poll showed 34% as part of "religious right"). It's just identity politics combined with dissatisfaction with other Republican options.

I assume he will still win South Carolina, because he will get positive national and local coverage between now and then, and some small-time candidates will drop out (and Paul can't get 10% in a primary). But it could get dirty. The tax thing will hurt, the immigration thing will hurt, etc.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | January 5, 2008 9:57 AM

1) Ha ha ha
The broadcast was hilarious in a few spots, but a pretty interesting handicapping discussion once you guys relaxed and got into it.

2) At the beginning, Jon Chait was real solemn (Very Serious Person) and had an unfortunate habit of leaning way forward into the Cam to emphasize his point. I felt an alarming sensation -- like I was a fern being eyed intently by a predatory , hungary Moose.

3) Around 5 minutes into the discussion, Matthew sunk a few hooks in:
"I'M from New York and Hillary Clinton ISN'T. You know. There's nothing PARTICULARLY New York about her."

Then Matt lowers his voice to a hushed tone --as if he's telling us that Hillary has a sexual disease:

"She's from suburban ILLNOIS!".

4) Jon Chait then gives Matthew a slap in the chops:

Jon: "As a more authentic American than you ..."

Damm, Matt. Was he referring to your religion or to your clothes still being wet from that swim across the Florida Straits from Cuba?

5)Matt lurks and waits to place his shot. Jon then leads with his chin:
Jon: "I'm from a pretty prosperous Detroit suburb"
Matt: "SURE"

ha ha ha. The descendents of Henry Ford have turned Detroit into the equivalent of downtown Beirut --but without the glamour and fine dining.

Posted by Don Williams | January 5, 2008 11:24 AM

Come now, Don. Isn't Detroit the Paris of the Midwest?

Posted by Klug | January 5, 2008 12:53 PM

In other words, I think Obama's rhetoric is more concerned with shifting the center, ala Reagan and FDR, than moving to the center ala Clinton.

Just to extend the point: his view of his game could be that if he claims to have united the country, Democrats and Republicans, around a common agenda--his agenda, which happens to be a Democratic one--then he walks into negotiations at a huge advantage.

Posted by Antid Oto | January 5, 2008 4:43 PM

The GOP may be down but it's not out. Obama, or Tutu, are not going to unite the country. Furthermore, why is uniting a worthy goal? If the GOP gets substantially smaller, why not let the Democrats enacted legislation and the President act in progressive way.

I think the conversion with Chait is an attempt to view and predict the future based on a single event. Granted, the inept Hillary/Penn campaign hasn't done its home work (one could see it even 3 month ago), but if they will, Obama's record is nothing to write home about and there is more than enough time to cut him down to size.

Besides, Obama ran too much to right; how do we know that isn't the real Obama?

Posted by Koshembos | January 5, 2008 6:19 PM