Mittmentum

The Fox News guys are heavily -- indeed, to a somewhat unprofessional extent -- hinting that Mitt Romney is going to win tonight.

Comments

i'm curious, matthew: what do you think constitutes "unprofessionalism" on Fox? i can't imagine what that could be based on what gets on the air....

Posted by howard | January 15, 2008 8:01 PM

This really fucks up the story line. Huckabee rides wave of evangelical support? No. Resurgent McCain unifies party and carries independents? No. Romney makes a pig's breakfast out of the Republican primary?

Posted by blah | January 15, 2008 8:04 PM

If Romney wins, will Rudy give the victory speech?

Posted by Rudy Rocks | January 15, 2008 8:05 PM

Why is it unprofessional to hint that? You've seen the exit polls just like I have - and just like they have.

Posted by Al | January 15, 2008 8:09 PM

This is the exit poll results being bandied about:

Romney 35
McCain 29
Huckabee 15
Ron Paul 10
Giuliani 4

Posted by blah | January 15, 2008 8:11 PM

It's amazing how it's taken precisely 7 days to forget the lesson that exit polls are unreliable. And open primaries are always hardest to exit poll.

I just took a flier on McCain to win MI at 9 to 1 odds over at Intrade.

Probably doesn't come in, but it's a decent bet at the odds.

Posted by Petey | January 15, 2008 8:15 PM

I would expect at least one Fox analyst to be without pants by the time the night is done if Romney comes in at 6 points over McCain.

Posted by Jake | January 15, 2008 8:19 PM

Are those poll results surprising? Thanks in part to traditional Democratic policies of high taxes, excessive unionism, etc., Michigan has an unemployment rate about one and a half times as high as the national average. Which candidate inspires the most confidence on economic issues, having been a hugely successful corporate turnaround artist? Mitt's family roots in MI don't hurt either.

It will be interesting to see though if the media still plays down Romney's prospects and plays up McCain's if Romney wins tonight. If Romney wins, he will have two wins (counting Wyoming), two second-place finishes, and the highest delegate count so far.

As for the insinuation that Fox is biased toward Romney, I haven't seen evidence of that. Some of the regular panelists (e.g., Fred Barnes, Mort Kondracke) are pro-amnesty McCain ass-kissers.

Posted by Fred | January 15, 2008 8:23 PM

"Why is it unprofessional to hint that?"

Because you're supposed to stay quiet about the exit polls on TV while the polls are still open.

It's a good standard of professionalism for folks to hold.

Posted by Petey | January 15, 2008 8:32 PM

Petey nails it. You could see the TV pros getting pissed at Kristol & Barnes who are printniks and blabbing too much.

Posted by Matthew Yglesias | January 15, 2008 8:43 PM

Thanks in part to traditional Democratic policies of high taxes, excessive unionism, etc., Michigan has an unemployment rate about one and a half times as high as the national average.

Would you care to identify which part? Hawaii and North Carolina are 25% unionized, Michigan only 20. Michigan has 7.4% unemployed, NC has 4.7%. Hawaii throws in high taxation, and 2.9% out of work. Care to make any other spurious claims?

Which candidate inspires the most confidence on economic issues, having been a hugely successful corporate turnaround artist?

The principals of Bain & Company had been milking the company, and Mitt gave them the choice of going out of business, or giving back the company's equity. I'll give him full points for not being a thief himself.

Posted by cmholm | January 15, 2008 9:41 PM

It's not the UAW's or taxes fault that the big three can't design cars people want to buy.

Posted by Gus | January 15, 2008 10:45 PM

The principals of Bain & Company had been milking the company, and Mitt gave them the choice of going out of business, or giving back the company's equity.

Which clearly any joe schmoe could have accomplished. Easy, really.

Posted by right | January 15, 2008 11:23 PM

jeez, imagine that: fred helps us understand that it's those dastardly democratic unions in michigan that sentence the automakers to a couple K disadvantage to foreign makers who don't have to pick up health-care costs....

Posted by howard | January 16, 2008 1:09 AM

Because you're supposed to stay quiet about the exit polls on TV while the polls are still open.

But that's stupid. Hinting about what the exit polls say isn't going to cause anybody to not vote. (I'm still not clear that telling people outright the results of the exit polls would have any effect on voting - I think the only thing that might really have a measurable effect is saying that the votes are in and somebody has already won, like happened in Florida in 2000, and even that is kind of iffy).

Posted by Al | January 16, 2008 9:14 AM