The retirement of Rep. Jim Walsh from the New York 25 is big news. Not only is the seat favored to go Democratic now that it's open, but this is one of those congressional districts that's going to become a pretty safe seat for a liberal Democrat rather than bringing in someone who's going to be perpetually looking over his shoulder.
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NY-25
24 Jan 2008 09:36 am
Comments (21)
With NY and New England having 50 seats among them, the Democrats currently hold 43. This certainly helps overcome the loss of the South.
There will soon be NO safe Republican seats in NY/NE. Nice for a party to start an election for the House being up by 50. Kinda like having California in the bag when you're running for president.
If only that led to better government.
PDX Pete:
It doesn't help when you have a Senate Majority Leader that lets Mitch McConnell use him as a punching bag.
PDX Pete:
I think that the Staten Island seat is likely to remain Republican for the foreseeable future. Given the VRA requirements for majority-minority districts in Brooklyn, there is not a reasonable way to divide up Staten Island.
Given the continuing collapse of the Republican party, the U.S. should begin to look at how politics will function in a one party state. If the Democratic primary is the only relevant election and then only when an incumbent is leaving office, then how will the political system function.
If ever office in New England is held by a Democrat, then the general election become unimportant.
I grew up there and remember the kid's father. I'm too out of touch with the local political players to have an idea who ought to be the Democratic nominee, but the pick-up, while likely, is no sure thing if they screw up.
I don't think the entrapment of the Republican party by its most radical (and particularly Southern-led) members and agenda is permanent.
If they face continued losses, there will be a Republican internal reaction.
There is simply too much incentive for moderate conservatives to run as Republicans for that to be ignored forever.
Certainly not a guaranteed Dem pickup. The North Country here is Republican territory. Sure, Walsh's district included Syracuse and Oswego, but that really means nothing.
Also, remember why he is retiring now, as a still relatively young Congressmen who maintained incumbency for nearly 20 years: he went against Iraq.
That single decision, more than anything else, is what created the shitstorm that brought him down.
Again. The Republican Party is strong here. The Democratic party doesn't very well have their shit together. Not a guaranteed pickup at all--as much as I'd like it to be.
I agree this district now leans Democrat, esp with the tail wind provided by the current national political climate. However, a cursory reading does not seem to confirm that it is 'solid' democrat. (i.e. if the wind shifts a la '94, it will go back to lean republican). It's tough to tell, though, with incumbency advantage and re-districting,
Peter King's seat is probably pretty safe unless he moves on, retires or gets hit by a bus.
Dan Maffei almost won this seat in 06.
it will be interesting to see what happens in the special election to the 48th State Senate seat next month. That's another long-time Republican seat in the North Country that the Dems have a good chance of picking up. (And given the narrow R majority in the State Senate the implications would be big.) There's only a slight overlap between the two districts but the demographics and politics are very similar. if the Dems can take that there's a good chance they can take Walsh's seat as well, especially in what's likely to be a strong Dem year.
I think that the Staten Island seat is likely to remain Republican for the foreseeable future.
Too pessimistic. Steve Harrison got 43 percent againnst Fossella in '06 and Frank Barbaro got 41 percent in '04 -- and Barbaro had no money and was like 80 years old. Clinton got almost 60 percent of the Staten Island vote in 2006, if she's the nominee she'll help the Dems downballot in 2008.
Dan Maffei will likely be the Dem nominee for this seat:
http://www.maffeiforcongress.com/index.cfm
He's a smart policy wonk who's good on pretty much every issue, he would be a great pickup.
He almost won in 06.
Thanks mq -- I should have added that given how close the Dems came to beating Walsh as an incumbent the odds have to favor them in an open-seat race. Chuchundra is probably right about Peter King, tho -- he'll be the last man standing in New York's R delegation.
whoops, didn't mean to include the first post.
Maffei for Congress, though! I'll be contributing.
Maffei is a strong candidate. Former prosecutor, no? That's a good background for a Dem -- it's the only form of activist government people still believe in....
Not a former prosecutor -- former staffer on Ways and Means for Rangel. He knows the issues and is a prog blogsphere type. Here he is on Social Security, for instance. It will warm your heart:
http://www.maffeiforcongress.com/socialsecurity.cfm
Dems are probably favored in '08 (and thus '10). But the seat will probably be redistricted out of existence thereafter, given that NY will likely lose at least 2 seats.
Someone beat me to the punch on noting that this seat is probably going to be redistricted out of existence with the next census.
NY is probably losing 2 seats and I think they're probably coming mostly from upsate since the NYC metro area isn't bleeding population like some of the upstate places are.
The whole revised map would be a disaster for Democrats, if not for the fact that a lot of the new population in the states adding seats is Hispanic. For instance, when Arizona, entirely under GOP control, added 2 new seats last time around, the best they could do was make two new seats - one a majority-Hispanic safe Dem seat and the other a marginal GOP seat they may well lose before long.
I've worked with Dan Maffei (the Dem candidate). He's fabulous and would be a fantastic representative. He's worked for Moynihan and Charlie Rangel and is a really smart communicator. I strongly recommend forwarding your special economic stimulus rebate check to Dan's campaign this spring.
Even if it's redistricted, he may be able to knock off a Rep in the new district depending on how the gerrymandering works. Syracuse is a medium-sized city with a big university, there will always be a chunk of liberal voters there.
Comments closed February 07, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
Quick! Somebody then find a Bush-leaning Democrat to fill that seat quick! Otherwise our agenda of shooting the liberals in the foot is slightly at risk!
Posted by El Cid | January 24, 2008 9:44 AM