Woo!
« Huckabee! | Main | The Real Winner »
Obama Wins
03 Jan 2008 09:28 pm
Comments (80)
I. Am. In. Shock.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
This is brilliant news! I'm from the UK but I've been rooting for Obama since the campaigning started.
Thank you Iowa! You just made my day! (actually my night, as it is 2:35a.m. over here.)
Keep it up Barack!
YEA!!!
Go Obama!!!!
He'll be an outstanding President-- superior intelligence, integrity and judgment. He'll also surround himself with the best and the brightest.
So, like, you might want to take back all the stuff you were saying about how foolish it is to take the Iowa Caucus seriously and start talking about the deep, homespun wisdom of the Corn People and how we should follow their lead by electing Obama as the next Democratic candidate.
Outstanding! Obama is a truly inspirationsl and intelligent candidate. I'm glad he beat Big Party Boss and Big Demagogue.
Down inside, I'm one of those independents that really likes Obama. It would be nice to have a major party candidate I actually wanted to vote for once. Congratulations.
I never in a million years imagined Richardson trying to funnel his people to Obama. What was that about?
I love the fact that Obama won tonight.
I still hate the Iowa caucuses.
Was that so hard?
Apparently, someone's not quite ready for the grown-up media. You gotta couch your mash notes in quasi-homoerotic terms (compliment his flight suit or call him "daddy).
CNN showed the map of counties won. Clinton took the conservative west side, Edwards took the southern chunk, and Obama took most of the map (all over the place). And a 5-6% lead in a tight 3-person race looks pretty good.
LOVE the fact young voter turnout actually HAPPENED this time around.
Such an awesome night: THANK YOU IOWA!
I never in a million years imagined Richardson trying to funnel his people to Obama. What was that about?
Edwards' and Clinton's support of the Iraq War might have something to do with it.
Apparently Richardson was less of a Clinton puppet than you thought, Petey.
It's the first time my primary candidate ever won. He has run an awesome campaign.
It looks like McCain might come in fourth, lessening the chance of independents participating in the Republican primary in New Hampshire, no? Obama crushed Clinton in the independent vote in Iowa.
Man. Marc Ambinder's blog is hurting my eyes.
"Apparently Richardson was less of a Clinton puppet than you thought, Petey."
1) Your analysis is correct.
or
2) Team Clinton understood that Obama had the state and were trying to move second choicers away from Edwards, knowing they couldn't move them to themselves.
Dunno which is correct.
-----
Moving forward, I assume Obama is going to win NH. Let's see if Edwards can beat Clinton there.
I believe the anti-Obama slot has value in this race.
Moving forward, I assume Obama is going to win NH. Let's see if Edwards can beat Clinton there.
I believe the anti-Obama slot has value in this race.
Barring a scandal, the race is over. Obama wins New Hampshire. He also wins every southern state, INCLUDING North and South Carolina (Edwards' two home states) because he will mobilize blacks to the polls. He will clean up on Feb. 5.
I think Clinton might be screwed. Hell, It looks like, by a small margin, Edwards is going to beat her vote tally. Even if they play it as a tie, I really think she had to beat one of these guys to continue riding on that wave of "inevitability" which I think is the glue keeping her constituency together. Now people that thought they had to vote for her to be on the winning team (I call them "cowards," but they make up a sizable chunk of the electorate (I say, based on extensive informal polling, performed by me)) will realize they don't have to.
Don't look now, but HRC's percentage has a 2 as the first digit.
"I think Clinton might be screwed."
It's going to be interesting to see who gets #2 and #3 tonight.
This is good, good, good news for the good guys.
Hillary's done. Over.
I would be a lot more enthused about this if Obama wasn't spouting all this anti-union rhetoric.
Man, maybe she helped create it, but Selzer was golden.
Check out Obama's internals. Sterling.
I don't think she's going to get the nomination, but . . .
Clinton coming in 3rd isn't as bad as everyone says it is. Edwards appears unlikely to be able to pull off second place in the upcoming states (sorry, Petey), and that leaves Clinton with a plausible comeback kid narrative. I love Obama, but you can't knock Hillary out with one punch.
Fired up! Ready to Go!
I could knock out Hillary with one punch. Of course, it would be ungentlemanly...
Let's Roll!
wait..
I don't think she's going to get the nomination, but . . .
Clinton coming in 3rd isn't as bad as everyone says it is. Edwards appears unlikely to be able to pull off second place in the upcoming states (sorry, Petey), and that leaves Clinton with a plausible comeback kid narrative. I love Obama, but you can't knock Hillary out with one punch.
Hillary's got no chance of beating Obama in the South with all those black Democratic voters. She'd have to beat him in New Hampshire (unlikely) and then would have to run the table in all the non-Southern primaries on Feb. 5 (also unlikely).
Barring a scandal, this is over. Iowa was by far the toughest state for Obama to win. It gets easier from here on out.
OBAMAMANIA!!!
I'm just so friggin happy right now. My team's in the playoffs, my primary candidate has won Iowa and this year started better than the last 3. Fired up and ready to go, indeed!
I believe the anti-Obama slot has value in this race.
It is incredible to read those words after a year of hearing of candidates competing for the "anti-Clinton" mantle.
Good result, on to NH!
Oh for God's sake, I'm thrilled with this, but I'm thrilled in part because of the prospect of this STARTING a real race, not ending it.
I think that Hillary's still got a chance, but she's not the favorite anymore. There are three tests from now on:
1. Trying to stop Obama's momentum in the next debate.
2. Finding a wedge issue like health care in combination with allowing the electorate to ponder an Obama candidacy and perhaps get queasy about his perceived inexperience.
3. Most importantly, drawing a line in the sand in the Feb 5 states for a last stand.
I don't see anything above as likely.
More interestingly, I do see a conversation about whether Obama winning in the backs of indepenents is a "real" Democrat like the discussion Republicans had about McCain in 2000.
i think it's bullshit and Obama isn't McCain in a lot of ways (after all he does have a $100 million chest), but I think that it will play out in the next few days.
Give me a break. This is easily Obama's easiest win. A Senator from Illnois, a state with a very strong party, was able to win Iowa which it neighbors. Now if Clinton didn't have her backing, this wouldn't have even been contested.
Oh for God's sake, I'm thrilled with this, but I'm thrilled in part because of the prospect of this STARTING a real race, not ending it.
I'd love for that to be true. I hate the Iowa caucuses, and I hate the idea that my state never has a real say in the process.
But this is just like when Kerry won in 2004. Obama just won a state he shouldn't have been able to win. It's just pretty damned obvious what is going to happen.
Petey,
Richardson funneling votes to Obama...
Can you spell V-I-C-E P-R-E-Z ??
I think Bill R would look pretty good in that pixelated VP bungelow.
Yes. Because we all now about the secret Illinois-Iowa Pinky Pact of 2007. They both agreed, because they were neighbors and because their names start with the letter "I" to be best friends for ever and ever, and to always vote for the same presidents.
Award for Great Efforts in Comment Thread Spin goes to......Petey!
I might also note that the TVs are reporting that Obama won the union vote. Guess they didn't get the word that he wants to crush them.
"Give me a break. This is easily Obama's easiest win."
You're crazy. He's going to walk away with NH.
If he's going to be stopped, it'll happen in NV.
-----
"I would be a lot more enthused about this if Obama wasn't spouting all this anti-union rhetoric."
Unions and universal healthcare are why the anti-Obama slot has some value.
You people are nuts! You sound like tweety with his man-crushes. Obama doesn't have a hope in hell of winning the general election in this country. Why do democrats always do this to themselves?Obama is the candidate Republicans would salivate over. This is a racist and stupid country. For Christ sake, Huckabee is actually a serious candidate! Bush was President for 8 yrs. You always fall in love with the candidate who could never win. I want a candidate that can actually win. Whether that's Edwards, Hillary...who the fuck cares? Obama is no better than the rest. He's black, therefore I should love him? Give me a break.
"Thank you, Iowa.
I take back everything I ever said about you.
Nice work!"
You are most welcome!
The caucuses obviously are different and flawed(to say the least). However, if everyone had a chance to participate in what happened in Iowa tonight, well you just might temper that dislike. Now, next time let's do the more representative stuff (regional, national, rotating or otherwise) so we don't start the election season bashing the nice folks in Iowa all over again.
...Sorry, listening the pumpkin-head while writing this. He referred to Iowa as a psuedo-red state (whatever the hell that means). Let's get this straight, Iowa is as purple as purple can be. It is literally 50-50 (just look at the Senators and you'll understand). So 'nuff about that "red state" shit already. Freakin' small Russ can bite me...
In case you missed it earlier on the last comment thread...
Just got back from my precinct. Out of 10 delegates, Obama (my choice) got 4, Edwards got 3 and Clinton got 3.
Hillary crowd - old people, there early
Edwards crowd - union and old and there early
Obama - late, minorities, young people, old people, young women and all the hot guys! The last being the most important...
Posted by Rihilism | January 3, 2008 9:06 PM
You people are nuts! You sound like tweety with his man-crushes. Obama doesn't have a hope in hell of winning the general election in this country. Why do democrats always do this to themselves?Obama is the candidate Republicans would salivate over. This is a racist and stupid country. For Christ sake, Huckabee is actually a serious candidate! Bush was President for 8 yrs. You always fall in love with the candidate who could never win. I want a candidate that can actually win. Whether that's Edwards, Hillary...who the fuck cares? Obama is no better than the rest. He's black, therefore I should love him? Give me a break.
You people are nuts! You sound like tweety with his man-crushes. Obama doesn't have a hope in hell of winning the general election in this country. Why do democrats always do this to themselves?Obama is the candidate Republicans would salivate over. This is a racist and stupid country. For Christ sake, Huckabee is actually a serious candidate! Bush was President for 8 yrs. You always fall in love with the candidate who could never win. I want a candidate that can actually win. Whether that's Edwards, Hillary...who the fuck cares? Obama is no better than the rest. He's black, therefore I should love him? Give me a break.
I think Obama/Edwards. I don't think the Edster would mind another shot at VP, especially a shot he'd have a good chance of winning. And, Edwards is popular enough, it seems, I don't think anyone would mind if he was slated to run after Obama's term was over. Of course, I really don't have a clue. It would just seem silly if this arrangement were possible, but ignored so that some second tier candidate could be rewarded for his mediocrity.
Unions and universal healthcare are why the anti-Obama slot has some value.
Unions? Possibly, although I don't get the feeling that they really hate Obama (the way, for instance, they hated Gary Hart in 1984).
Universal healthcare? Only if Hillary or Edwards actually endorse it. The individual mandate (which is not the same as universal healthcare provided by the government) is a political loser.
petey says:
"I never in a million years imagined Richardson trying to funnel his people to Obama. What was that about?"
George Stephanopolis was on ABC saying that Richardson and some other small-time candidate funneled the votes to Obama in order to try and really beat down the Edwards campaign, for the purpose of ending the long white male control over the presidency. I kid you not. The reporter talking to Stephanopolis was a bit incredulous like "wow, that sounds a bit complicated". It didn't seem like Stephanopolis had a source on this, just his masterful powers of deduction.
Perspective:
How many votes separated Obama- Clinton- Edwards? A couple thousand? A virtual dead heat.
Is this really as "cataclysmic" as Tweety makes it out to be?
Methinks not.
However, if everyone had a chance to participate in what happened in Iowa tonight, well you just might temper that dislike.
But that's the thing. We aren't allowed to, BECAUSE YOUR STATE HAS A HAMMERLOCK ON THE PROCESS AND DOESN'T ALLOW ANY OTHER STATES A CHANCE TO GO FIRST.
So don't tell us how we might temper our dislike for the thing if we could participate. How about giving up your spot and letting us participate instead?
Oh Ruthless, go shit on someone else's parade, would ya?
Mr. Ruthless, as it happens, Obama is the most attractive Democrat in the eyes of the Republican electorate. I would bet that white man's guilt, expressed most often in liberal circles, is actually quite prevalent, if unreported, in areas where outright racism still exists. Do not be surprised if the very racism you say will detonate the Obama candidacy actually fuels it.
And if the kids showed up and the ground game worked this well in Iowa, just imagine what CA and the Super Tuesday states will look like. This was Hillary's shot (along with NH) to pull all the levers that the party-favorite nom has to pull. And she got trounced and came in third. It has really annoyed me that the obviously biased Armstrong take of "that's not a movement" has become 'sphere CW. The vote tally says otherwise. I don't care if you don't like this tactic or that quote, you look foolish as you continue to deny that the man is simply a transcendental figure. He's the kind of person who will be able to exceed expectations and do great things because he inspires and that fucking matters. In fact, it matters a hell of a lot more than whether Kos or Atrios or Digby feels disrespected.
"So don't tell us how we might temper our dislike for the thing if we could participate. How about giving up your spot and letting us participate instead?"
I believe that's what I said we should do next time. Sheesh!
Good speech by Edwards. But no traditional congratulations of the winner?
OK, dream on, suckers. So what if most of this country doesn't believe in evolution and even Colin Powell couldn't be elected. If you believe that the yahoos in this country actually have white man's guilt, then you're just not living in the real world. And it's Ms. Ruthless to you! Obama would be lucky to avoid assassination.
"In fact, it matters a hell of a lot more than whether Kos or Atrios or Digby feels disrespected."
I couldn't agree more. Not that I would have not caucused for him anyway, but the incessant whining about Obama having the nerve, the very gall to be inclusive and less than "pure" is what put me over the top in his favor. What, with odds finally swinging the Democrats way, are we going to suddenly become the Republican Party with the loyalty oaths and "thou shalt not speak ill of fellow Democrats...", my fucking ass! That shit is one of the reasons I left the Repub Party.
I really prefer to call you Mister Ruthless. So I will. And everyone knows that if Colin Powell had run for office, he'd have won the election. I am as cynical as anyone can be about the American electoral system (I was a soldier when Dubya decided to go kill him some Arabs), but even I don't think 2008 America is so backwards that it won't tolerate a non-white or non-male president. You sound like a racist fantasizing about the days when some good ol' boy could be counted on to put a bullet in leaders like MLK. Those days are over. It's done. And I'll be damned if I'd let the most extremist assholes in this country dictate who I'd pull the lever for even indirectly; voting for Edwards just because I think Americans are racist bastards who won't elect Obama merely extends the influence of racism itself far beyond its natural bounds.
Ms. Ruthless,
Barack Obama is a United States Senator, a former state legislator, a civil rights activist, a constitutional law professor, and a former President of the Harvard Law Review. He is intelligent, eloquent, and inspiring; he appeals to young voters, highly educated voters, independents and many Republicans.
You brought up Obama's race in this thread and no one has made the argument that you should love him on account of his race. Take the log out of your own eye before you worry about the speck in someone else's.
Uh, Master Ruthless, Obama plays better than Clinton or Edwards with Republicans. Check the poll numbers.
Seriously.
EVERYONE knows that Colin Powell would have been elected??? Wow, you should be a pundit. Whenever someone disagrees with your pipe dream, you must call that person a name, like racist. How typical. Obama has many good qualities (although he has some pretty strange bedfellows). That's not my argument. I didn't say he was unqualified to be President...I said that it could never happen in a country as ignorant and backward as the USA. Try to at least get this right. The republicans know how to run the dirtiest campaigns possible. All they have to do is call him Osama often enough and 50% of the voters won't know the difference. Look what they did to Al Gore and John Kerry who were well known names. When are going to realize that the people who vote in these primaries are NOT typical voters. They are better educated about the issues than the general public that mostly couldn't care less about politics. Live in the real world and pick someone who could actually win. And no, I don't know who the best choice would be, except it's not the novice Obama.
Alright. I admit the statement about Powell is a little off (since Powell didn't run, we can't really know). However the fact that he was so well received doesn't help support your little argument. I will reinforce what I have said before. Perhaps you are not racist. By operating under the assumption that everyone else is, you are helping the cause of racism, intentional or not. If you think Obama should be president, you should vote for him, irrespective of the attitudes of your bigoted. Democracy doesn't work well when the best of us assume only the worst can be true.
@Petey:
I never in a million years imagined Richardson trying to funnel his people to Obama. What was that about?
"I wouldn't mind being the first black man to be president... nobody would touch me because my vice president would be mexican for a little insurance"
-Dave Chappelle
"Hillary's got no chance of beating Obama in the South with all those black Democratic voters."
Isn't Hillary more popular with black Dems (i.e, blacks) than Obama? Anyone have any stats on that?
gerontion, I WISH you were right. But you must realize that what people say to pollsters and what they actually do in the voting booth are not necessarily the same. People do not wish to appear racist, even if they are. This reminds me of the Gene McCarthy campaign (who, by the way, I supported, because I hated Bobby Kennedy for jumping in so late and for his right wing connections). Nevertheless, it never seemed realistic to me that McCarthy could win the general election. Dems need to be realistic above all else or they will never win. The press is against them and will allow any lie to flourish. Somehow we have to rise above that. I just don't think Obama is the person who can do that.
If Obama gets the Dem ticket, I have 200 dollars to your 50 that he wins the presidency. Screw the Intrade garbage-let's do a good ol' fashioned, wrong side of the law bet. Obama loses, i'll mail you a couple benjamins. Contingent on his getting the nomination, of course. I'd put more money on the table even, but I'm a po' boy.
Part of what helped Obama win his Senate race was that he was able to appeal to whites in southern Illinois, which is traditionally rather conservative compared to the Chicago area. Put it this way, polls showed that among self-identified "very conservative" Republicans, their third choice was president was Condi Rice. We still have a large problem with racism in this country. However, this has evolved in a way that racists can feel comfortable to hate a group or feel that they are inferior, but like an individual of that group. There is a decent chance we're going to see black presidents, Latino presidents, Jewish presidents, female presidents and possibly Arab or Muslim presidents in my lifetime. We can either believe in our country and choose someone based on their positions, their record and their ability to lead or we be scared any time a viable minority candidate comes along and decide that we're too scared of the racists to back them. Every president has someone trying to kill them. The same goes for every candidate. That is why right when Kerry chose Edwards for VP, the Secret Service had to rush to Edwards's side immediately. This isn't something new that appears when the candidate is a minority.
"Put it this way, polls showed that among self-identified "very conservative" Republicans, their third choice was president was Condi Rice."
Forgot to mention this was about a year ago, but the fact that 20% of this group would even consider Rice without laughing is surprising.
I have to say anybody who thinks Iowa was an easy Obama win has to explain the demographics: Iowa is well over 90 percent white. Blacks make up something like two percent of the population.
If Obama took Iowa, he can definitely take New Hampshire (even though the white/black division is even more clear: 96.97% vs 1.29%) and the Virginias (Virgina 74.94% vs 20.65%.) His being black really does seem to be irrelevant - as least as far as the Dems are concerned.
Now what happens in the general election might be another story. Or maybe not. We'll just have to see.
In that regard, Hillary might be an even worse candidate, since I can see white men (and Hispanics) voting for a black man, but I suspect it would harder for men of any color to vote for a woman President - especially THAT woman President.
Not impossible, mind you, but definitely less likely than that they would vote for a black men.
And whether the female vote would help Obama or Clinton more than a Republican isn't certain, unless somebody has polls to show otherwise.
But I can't claim to be certain that neither Obama or Hillary could win it.
In any event, unless Edwards wins which seems increasingly unlikely, that's how it's going to be: a black man or a white female against a white male Republican.
It could just be novel enough to overwhelm the racism. Get enough racists to stay home and enough females and blacks to vote and maybe it will actually help them get elected.
If it doesn't, of course, then clearly the US deserves to get a Rudy or McCain or some other Repug schmuck for another four years.
I don't think people really understand how racism works in this country. Sure, there are still a small number of ideological racists like the KKK, but for the most part, people don't like to be called racist, even if they like to use the N word inappropriately and think ill of all minorities. A lot of it has gone underground, and has devolved into a really juvenile strain of plain old cultural chauvinism. A lot of these guys don't even have that one black friend they can point to, so voting for Obama is just a proxy for establishing one's pluralistic bona fides. That's why I say, in a peculiar way, that racism might actually help Obama. You are going to get people who aren't all that happy with the Republican contender to begin with, whoever he happens to be, who will be using a vote they know they'd be throwing away anyhow to assuage their consciences. The number of votes that come this way can't be measured, but I'll bet they'll be quite a few, especially in places where the fraternity of whiteness is most pronounced (the South) where people feel like they have something to prove about how enlightened they really are. It is in this sense that the civil rights movement has been the most important at the basic social level-not by eradicating racism (we've got a long way to go), but by making people feel genuinely guilty about their racist impulses.
Absolutely no fucking idea what you are talking about, gerontion.
Flesh that out. It would be helpful if you told everyone what you should do about this irrational guilt.
Isn't Hillary more popular with black Dems (i.e, blacks) than Obama? Anyone have any stats on that?
In theory, Hillary is very popular with blacks. In practice, there's no way that a viable black candidate will not get an overwhelming majority of the black vote.
Thank you, Iowa. For making a decisive choice.
Actually, I think the guilt is rational, and will continue to be until prejudice ends (which will probably be never, but there's a lot of room for real improvement). For certain really ingrained impressions, especially about blacks, it may be the only way to compensate for what are incurable attitudes. Much as I'd love to whip out some sort of lovey-dovey panacea for all the bigotry and cultural friction that exists in this country, I honestly haven't a clue how to go about it.
Iowa, you are forgiven.
Also, fwiw, the BBC radio news at 6 a.m. led with the story out of Iowa, with caveats that it is the first of many contests.
What a way to wake up!
"gerontion, I WISH you were right. But you must realize that what people say to pollsters and what they actually do in the voting booth are not necessarily the same. People do not wish to appear racist, even if they are. This reminds me of the Gene McCarthy campaign (who, by the way, I supported, because I hated Bobby Kennedy for jumping in so late and for his right wing connections). Nevertheless, it never seemed realistic to me that McCarthy could win the general election. Dems need to be realistic above all else or they will never win. The press is against them and will allow any lie to flourish. Somehow we have to rise above that. I just don't think Obama is the person who can do that."
Didn't Senator Obama, A.K.A. the only black guy running, win the Iowa Caucus tonight?
Maybe this is an age thing. All the polling demographics seem to be heavily age dependent. I'm young enough that I wasn't even alive in the election you are talking about. Maybe, just maybe, the country has progressed a bit socially in the decades since the election you reference?
Leading up to the Iowa caucus, much of the media was talking about how young people, like myself, don't bother coming out to actually vote. Well, they did that in record numbers tonight and apparently we aren't particularly bothered by the fact the fact that Obama is black. To me, he just comes across as one of the most moving, inspirational men I've seen in my lifetime.
I can't help but smile. Thanks Iowa!!!!!!!!!
Yglesias the King-Maker!
Thank you, Iowa. For making a decisive choice.
Posted by rikyrah
Decisive? Hmmm. On the Democratic side, the three front-runners in the conventional wisdom did turn out to be the top three delegate-getters, by wide margins from the rest. However, they were within 10 percentage points of each other. They all did respectively, regardless of how the pundits will make mountains out of percentage points. As for the Republicans, Huckabee had a much stronger win, but I can't help thinking there will be reversals. I haven't seen any polls so this is entirely ex recto, but Huckabee beating Romney in New Hampshire or Ron Paul not doing better than fifth place in Wyoming would blow my mind.
I happen to think the results are good news in a feel-good sense, especially on the Democratic side, but I wouldn't call it "decisive."
Comments closed January 17, 2008.
| 
Heads in the Sand
Thank you, Iowa.
I take back everything I ever said about you.
Nice work!
Posted by SoCalJustice | January 3, 2008 9:32 PM