I feel as if it wouldn't be too shocking if Barack Obama really did manage to close the gap and win New York City. After all, it's pretty demographically friendly terrain for him -- sizable black population, plenty of highly educated whites, few Mexican-Americans -- and it's not as if Hillary Clinton has particularly deep roots in New York. What's more, Connecticut and New Jersey are both demographically promising areas for Obama, with Democratic Parties that consist primarily of African-Americans and educated people. But throughout the tri-state area, Obama's playing at a disadvantage because Clinton represents New York and has ties to political leaders throughout the region. It should, however, be interesting to see how close Obama can keep things throughout that area.
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Obama NYC
29 Jan 2008 11:43 am
Comments (51)
Obama has people out on the streets in NYC accosting passersby. You wonder, though, whether the Clinton affinity with the large Hispanic communities in this metropolitan area is not going to make it tough for O.
No one should be surprised if Obama out polls Clinton in NYC, especially in Manhattan. His support in Harlem is deep.
Unfortunately, the rest of the state, outside NYC, is another story entirely.
I see Obama folks at all the subway stops I frequent, but no sign of Hillary folks at all.
A big icestorm upstate and a light rainstorm in the city on Feb 5 could be very good for Obama. Remember there is no early voting in NYS. To vote absentee you have to specify a reason why you can't make it to the polls.
Bob, the thing is, it's not clear whether Hillary has an affinity with "Latinos" or just Mexican Americans. The Latino community in New York has lots of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, etc. In addition, many have been in the US a generation or two longer than the Latinos in the Southwest.
How does Clinton-v-Obama look in Westchester, Long Island, etc? I think that's equally if not more important that further upstat regions.
It's likely that demographics will lead to a surprising Obama benefit on Super Tuesday. With districting under VRA and Republican gerrymanders making black-majority districts and a few well-educated white urban districts and those districts being the ones the DNC has assigned the most delegates to, Obama is strongly favored by the map.
Even the low-Democratic turnout R+5 and more Republican districts will favor Obama where independents can vote. The heavy Republican-favoring gerrymander in California should make it possible for Obama to end up with more California delegates if he can close the California gap to anything under 10%. 49% Clinton-41% Obama-10% Edwards in California should leave Obama with most of the delegates by my calculations.
New York may have a similar situation, though NY doesn't have a strong Republican gerrymander packing Obama's supporters like CA does. I don't know if independents can vote in NY, either.
He has a better chance of coming out of NY with pretty good numbers than Hillary has of coming out of here with a good showing.
Obama has Illinois locked up and is riding a high approval rating here.
Chicago is pretty tight for Obama. In my city, Rockford, most people are not paying attention except for republicans. eeewwww.
Most Hispanics in NYC are of the illegal variety and they can't vote. Poor Hillary.
Few Mexican Americans? Matt's been out of the City for too long. I haven't had a meal that wasn't prepared by a Mexican since 1999 (including Pizza and Chinese). It would be appropriate to say that there are not many Mexican voters. The hispanic voting population is still dominated by PR's and DR's, and the only campaigning I see in their neighborhoods in the BX are for elections in their home countries so I can't say I know who their candidate is (if I had to guess I'd say Hillary). Many blacks in NYC still support Hillary, most because of their fondness for her husband. There is an obvious generational divide however, as you will often see Hillary pins on older black women on the subway and older white women walking their homely dogs, but no one else really. All of these women will vote. I think the outcome will depend on how many of the younger generation shows up on primary day.
On my way to work today, there were around six Obama supporters handing out material by the subway station and only one Hillary supporter. NYC Upper West Side.
Most Hispanics in NYC are of the illegal variety and they can't vote.
I'm almost completely certain that's false. If you have evidence to back it up, post it.
And yeah, it wouldn't surprise me either if he carried NYC and lost the rest of the state big.
Why would anyone assume that Hilary has great upstate numbers? I would imagine that LI and greater NYC would be where she would do really well.
Laborlibert ... uhhh, you might want to ask Tony Bourdain about this sort of thing, plenty of people latinos working in NYC restaurants are from el salvador, guatemala, etc.
Most Hispanics in NYC are Puerto Rican's, and Puerto Rican's are American citizens.
Why would anyone assume that Hilary has great upstate numbers?
Because she's in a position to bring back pork. As in the form of the Marine 1 helicopter contract.
Unless I'm mistaken, none of the big 2/5 states are winner take all. So it's not like, for instance, Obama would win in NYC, come up short upstate, and walk away with nothing.
If he wins NYC he gets NYC's delegates, and Hillary gets the delegates where she wins.
I guess my point is that probably nobody is going to win super-huge on Super Tuesday, since even the loser of each of the big states will get a chunk of delegates, keeping it fairly close.
Why would anyone assume that Hilary has great upstate numbers?
For me, anyway, it's more that I would assume Obama has bad upstate numbers.
Upstate is also where Hillary first demonstrated her political strength in running for Senate. They were hostile to her originally, but she campaigned hard, listened closely, and won them over. And I gather (though I'm not positive) she brings home the money that they'd like.
It's considerably more conservative, older, and let's just say it, whiter part than New York.
Beudrot:
Why would I ask Tony Bourdain? Is that a serious response? How would I even go about doing that? I could just ask any number of restaurant workers where they are from, which I already have done. The only thing I would ask Bourdain is how he became such a smooth mother-(expletive). Of course I know that many restaurant workers are from Guatamela and El Salvador, but a hell of a lot of them are Mexican, and on personal experience I would say the majority.
laborlibert,
what you're saying is so irrelevant and anecdotal. no one's saying there are no mexicans in NYC, and yes it's a growing number. but it still pales in comparison to those from DR and PR. this is a fact of the demographics on NYC.
A 2005 census I just looked at puts Puerto Ricans at a little less than 800,000. Dominicans at a little over 500,000. Mexicans at around 250,000.
Not nothing, but certainly much less than the other two.
I'd say "laborlibert" is right on the money regarding the political demographics of NYC...
Do illegals even show up on a census? Estimates I've seen range from 1-2 million.
Do illegals even show up on a census? They seem to be everywhere.
Why would anyone assume that Hilary has great upstate numbers?
For me, anyway, it's more that I would assume Obama has bad upstate numbers.
I wouldn't think that's a given. Thus far, he's done consistently well in relatively more rural areas in IA, NH, and NV. Not sure about SC, nor do I assume that will necessarily transfer to upstate NY, but there's at least reason to think it's possible.
BSA:
My commentary was based on years of experience, and while anecdotal, I think it is nonetheless reliable (at least as reliable as Bourdain). I think I already said that the majority of hispanics in New York were Puerto Rican or Dominican. I live in the Bronx so I certainly wouldn't need census data to tell me this (although i would seriously question any census data dealing with immigrant populations). To be clear, what I meant was that Mexicans were the majority of restaurant workers when compared to Guatamalan and El Salvadoreans. This would also be true if you compared Mexicans to PR's and DR's, who aren't present in great numbers in restaurant kitchens.
And please don't call my comments irrelevent just because you disagree with them.
re: After all, it's pretty demographically friendly terrain for him -- sizable black population, plenty of highly educated whites, few Mexican-Americans..."
Gee, what racist garbage. Don't denigrate people just because Obama's coalition is only limousine liberals and African-Americans, two groups not big enough to win a general election, much less a Democratic primary.
But maybe Teddy can drag Obama over the finish line.
limousine liberals
Asshole.
Re: "The Latino community in New York has lots of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, etc. In addition, many have been in the US a generation or two longer than the Latinos in the Southwest."
Read a history book. Mexican-Americans have been in the Southwest for hundreds of years. People back east think every American person of Mexican descent is a newly arrived immigrant. It's stupid.
limousine liberals Asshole.
Hit a nerve? Oh, I forgot, only you guys are allowed to categorize and stereotype people.
Has there ever been a Black candidate that did well with Mexican-Americans or in an area with a large Mexican-American population? I keep seeing the "Mexicans are racists" CW floating around with no proof other than the fact that Clinton did well with them. Clinton did well with white people. Are white people racists?
Julie:
Maybe you should also read a history book...
Sure, there have been Mexican-Americans in the Southwest for a couple of hundred years or longer. But what *percentage* of them have roots that go that far back? And what percentage have been here 30 years or less?
Numbers matter in politics...
Hillary represents the true face of the Democratic Party. The sooner you morons wise up and realize it the better.
I did not post the above comment about Hillary representing the true face of the Democratic Party. That's ridiculous.
Re: "Has there ever been a Black candidate that did well with Mexican-Americans or in an area with a large Mexican-American population?"
Yes.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rodriguez28jan28,0,1688217.column
University of Washington political scientist Matt Barreto has compiled a list of black big-city mayors who have received broad Latino support over the last several decades. In 1983, Harold Washington pulled 80% of the Latino vote in Chicago. David Dinkins won 73% in New York in 1989. And Denver's Wellington Webb garnered more than 70% in 1991, as did Ron Kirk in Dallas in 1995 and then again in 1997 and 1999.
He could have also added that longtime Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley won a healthy chunk of the Latino vote in 1973 and then the clear majority in his mayoral reelection campaigns of 1977, 1981, 1985 and 1989.
Here in Los Angeles, all three black members of Congress represent heavily Latino districts and ultimately couldn't survive without significant Latino support. Five other black House members represent districts that are more than 25% Latino -- including New York's Charles Rangel and Texan Al Green -- and are also heavily dependent on Latino voters.
So, given all this evidence, why did this notion get repeated so nonchalantly? For one, despite the focus on demographic changes in America, journalists' ignorance of the aspirations of Latino America is pretty remarkable. They just don't know much about the biggest minority in the nation. And two, no Latino organizations function in the way that, say, the Anti-Defamation League does for Jewish Americans. In other words, you can pretty much say whatever you want about Latinos without suffering any political repercussions.
Obama can win NYC. several brooklyn pols like Al Vann, Eric Adams, Major Owens and Hakeem Jeffries have endorsed and campaigned for him.
The reason he doesnt have as much of a chance upstate is that up there they LOOOOOOOOVE Hillary Clinton. Shes gotten a lot of pork tossed their way and has worked really hard for their support.
Anecdotally, I am an 18 year old first time voter who will be casting my first ever vote for Obama on February 5th. I live in Brooklyn and only know one Hillary supporter here.
Julie:
Seems I read that exact post somewhere else on this blog, but written by a person named "Ellen". Link here:
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/obamas_endorsements.php
Are you a sock puppet? C'mon now...
Btw, so Hillary is the true face of the Democratic Party, huh?
I didn't post the comment about Hillary being the true face of the Dem Party. As I said, that's ridiculous. Just as ridiculous as the notion that Mexican-Americans are racists who won't vote for Obama because he's black. How would you like to be slimed as racist for no reason at all? Especially when you face discrimination yourself and past voting patterns say otherwise?
Obama's #1 problem is the fact the he won't talk specifically about what he'll do to fix the economy.
And the LA Times quote is all over the internet. I found it in the comments section of an article on "Salon."
I'm not posting here anymore because I've made my point. Anyone else who posts as Julie is not me.
Wouldn't surprise me in the least. It's not that there is intense dislike of Hillary so much as "she's just another good politician" and Obama really really really has gotten an image that captures the true cosmopolitan "live and let live" nature of New York. Not just Manhattan, but all of New York City. The type of thing he's selling is what makes New Yorkers proud of being a New Yorker. (Ok, maybe not Staten Island. :-))
P.S. On the illegals question, I'd be willing to bet that there are more illegal Asians in NYC than Hispanics. As others have noted, the Hispanics in NYC are thoroughly dominated by the Carribeans, and especially Puerto Rican, going back to "West Side Story" days. The Central American illegal day worker thing, with guys standing on the street corner for day work, came much later here than in many other areas in the country and is still much more of a problem in the surrounding communities than within the city line because of the strong unioniztion of that type of labor within the city line.
Next door to me in the Bronx is your typical Dominican NYC family and it is hard to tell who is legal or not. The house was run down, when the owner died, it was bought by this Dominican guy that drove a Mercedes and wore heavy gold jewelry. He said he bought and sold real estate but that with this one he was going to have his sister live in it and keep it for an investment. He rehabbed it and none of those working on the rehab spoke English and they did things without the proper permits. His son lives with his sister, his wife lives in another house he owns about a mile away. The sister speaks English ok, but not great, both the son and the sister's daughter attend NYC schools. His sister works as a health care aide on the night shift. He took the garage out, put an illegal apartment in the half basement and garage and left it looking like a garage with a false door. He rents it out to a cycle of immigrants, like the old Puerto Rican guy that told me he is a roofer and does roofing half the year in NYC and half the year in Puerto Rico. When that guy did the roof on the house none of his workers spoke English.
I'd also be willing to be that the illegals within the city are mostly subsisting in small immigrant businesses--restaurants & delis & newsstands--you give your nephew from India work for cash when he shows up at your doorstep--if you are Chinese, you might do business with a people smuggler--the Afghani food cart man helps along his cousin just arrived. Of course, there are also Polish contractors that have made it that only give work to their newly arrived brethren, and Albanians that are doing god knows what....Here in New York City, it's mainly the immigrants that hire the illegals.
I split my time between Manhattan and upstate New York. Most of my Manhattanite friends seem committed to Hillary (although the most Obama-resistant did flip this weekend, after Caroline Kennedy's endorsement). Upstate may be another matter. Much to my great surprise, the large number of Ron Paul signs I've seen over the last 3 months have given way to Obama signs. There's still hope that his appeal is spreading.
Matt,
It's possible to be simultaneously African American and highly educated. Many are.
I'm not posting here anymore because I've made my point.
Okey dokey, "Jellen"...
Just for the sake of presenting data, NYC by itself is about 42% of the state's population, and NYC + Long Island + a few of the nearby upstate counties represent about 2/3 of the state's population. So winning New York City by itself gets you a long way toward winning the whole state.
The difference in coming in 1st or 2nd place in the Democratic primaries, since delegates are assigned proportionately, is not all that big for any given state, at least in the technical sense. The win is just as valuable, if not more so, for the positive press and fundraising.
It's also possible to be highly educated and a Hillary supporter. Generalizations are just that-general.
Is it possible to be a Machiavellian, identity politics driven, racist fool and a Hillary supporter as well?
Just askin.
Charming, Larry. Real witty, too. So anyone who supports Hillary is racist? I'm not the one who's a fool.
"It's also possible to be highly educated and a Hillary supporter."
Depends on what you're educated in.
The foreign policy and economic impact of a war with Iran for Israel and the oil companies and the military-industrial complex - or the same impact on getting mired in Pakistan due to ignorance of the situation there - might be something to get educated in before supporting Clinton.
Or Obama, for that matter, since both of them have explicitly said they'll do both those things if "diplomacy" doesn't work - which it can't since you can't "diplomacy" your way out of understanding what the facts are.
No implication there as far as you're concerned, Susan. Racist? Only many Latinos, a large segment of "downmarket" voters, and, not to be forgotten, repressed housewives such as yourself.
Borrow a dollar and buy a clue, Larry. I work for a living. Your ESP beanie is just not working.
Good luck in the factory today.
Comments closed February 12, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
I live in Brooklyn and I'm voting for Obama.
While this is probably just a case of people that think alike hang out, everyone I know is voting for Obama. The one exception is my girlfriend, who is undecided between him and Clinton. She likes the idea of a female president and isn't particularly affected by Obama's (or anyone's) speeches.
All my co-workers are voting for Obama, including one from Puerto Rico. Take that, Bendixen.
Posted by matthewcc | January 29, 2008 12:06 PM