It was clear to me that the Giants weren't going to beat the Green Bay Packers. But then again, it was also clear to me that the Giants weren't going to win their other two playoff games either. Thus, the mere fact that the preponderance of the available evidence strongly points in the direction of a Patriots win doesn't really prove anything. Thus, I predict that New England will wind up getting the loss they so richly deserve.
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Official Super Bowl Prediction
31 Jan 2008 03:27 pm
Comments (35)
I know why most prognosticators picked the Cowboys and Packers against the Giants, but remain baffled by the idea that Tampa Bay was going to beat them.
Of the 6 wild card teams that have won the SB, five beat a team that had only one more regular season win than the wild card team, and the sixth, the 05 Steelers, had two less than the Seahawks. The disparity in terms of reord is pretty unprecedented. Also, this is Eli Manning we're talking about. He's an INT machine to begin with. Against Belicheck? Come on now. And the Giants secondary is pretty sorry. If the Cowboys had pulled their heads out of their asses two minutes earlier, they would've won b/c they were exposing holes left and right and killed themselves with drops. In conclusion, no feaking way in hell the Giants beat the Pats. Sorry, folks, but this one was over when the Colts choked thier asses off against the Chargers. No one else had a chance.
Based on your pick, I pick the Patriots.
it's my longstanding contention that when the super bowl is 2 weeks after the conference championship, it really favors the better team, thanks to the extra film breakdown and game-plan prep time.
and the better team is clearly the pats.
the giants 1% chance of winning is largely based on a game that both belichick and coughlin were part of the staff for, and that's the super bowl win over the bills: although the bills moved the ball tremendously, they only had possession for something like 20 minutes, while the giants had several long slow drives that resulted in touchdowns.
and it's not like you can't move the ball on the pats defense.
nonetheless, the problem remains, as MSB notes, that despite corey webster suddenly looking like a legitimate pro cornerback, ross and wilson really stepping up, and even mcquarters playing decently, the giant weakness is its secondary and the pat strength is its passing game.
that doesn't bode well for matthew's prediction!
I'm really hoping that the Patriots lose and it is somehow all Brady's fault. I subscribe to the theory that no person on earth should have that excessively good of a life; it just upsets an innate sense of balance. At some point you've got to have a soul crushing defeat come your way, and I'm hoping that's gonna happen this Sunday.
"So richly deserve?" Sounds like just another New Yorker who is upset over how incredibly shitty his sports teams have been in this decade.
I hope he wakes up the next day with a hangover and "19-0" written on his forehead in indelible ink.
"Thus, I predict that New England will wind up getting the loss they so richly deserve."
From your lips to God's ears, my friend.
The Bills were the better team in 1991, too.
Goddamnit. Matthew knows perfectly well that his predictions are a jinx. Now the Giants are screwed.
I'll take that bet.
Bill Kristol said the Pats would win. They're screwed.
MSB -
INT machine? Really?
How many has he thrown in the last month?
Bridget Moynahan is betting big on the Giants.
That's right - for working their asses off, devoting months and months of their lives practicing and studying game film, maintaining focus through countless distractions and giving 100% effort the Patriots "deserve to lose." Way to act like a "liberal" caricature driven to destroy any greatness in the world solely out of envy and spite.
vanya, get back to us when you understand sports.
In the Dallas and GB games, the Giants found a way to win against extremely tough opposition. They were confident, extremely physical, and they made very few mistakes.
NE beat SD at least in part because the Chargers settled for field goals instead of going for a TD too many times, and LT didn't play.
I agree that the two weeks off plays into NE's hands, mostly because it probably has cooled off NY.
New England is the smart bet - but don't be shocked if the Giants win. I think it'll be closer than most people think.
Are the Pats likely to win? Of course. Are they a lock? Of course not. Brady has bad games (as we saw last week). Eli has good games (as we've seen the last few weeks).
People are underestimating the Giants secondary. It certainly had it's bad moments against Dallas but that was with thier top three corners out (Madison/Ross/Dockery). All three will be at or near 100% this game, and Webster has obviously stepped up.
Farve looked pretty awful last week... and the Giants barely pressured him at all.
"Goddamnit. Matthew knows perfectly well that his predictions are a jinx. Now the Giants are screwed.
Posted by Al | January 31, 2008 8:20 PM"
Woohoo!
And Eli Manning, like anybody named Eli, is a little bitch. Can't we just ship off their entire family to a sterilization clinic and get them off my TV for five minutes?
I agree with the first Sean -- finding a way to win is what the Pats have been about in the Belichick era, and the Giants are showing the same kind of fire and fight lately.
During the season, the Giants played the Patriots at home, fought them tough and only lost by three. Does that remind anybody of a certain team that played the Rams tough at home during the 2001 season but lost and then later beat the Rams in the Super Bowl?
I'm a Patriots fan and I've got my fingers crossed...
Are you sure? Eli is even more insufferable than Peyton!
It's not Tom Brady's fault he happens to be perfect.
DJ writes: "People are underestimating the Giants secondary. It certainly had it's bad moments against Dallas but that was with thier top three corners out (Madison/Ross/Dockery). All three will be at or near 100% this game, and Webster has obviously stepped up.
Farve looked pretty awful last week... and the Giants barely pressured him at all."
They won't pressure Brady, either - they barely touched him in week 17. And he'll carve up the Giants secondary, which sucks. Madison is done, Ross is a rookie with a bad shoulder, and Dockery is not even worth talking about.
The Patriots beat the Giants in New York with two offensive linemen out and their top two tight ends hurt.
The Giants have a shot but this is obviously a mismatch.
The Patriots beat the Giants in New York with two offensive linemen out and their top two tight ends hurt.
Both sides were more banged up the that game than they are now. You can make arguments either way about which injuries were more of a factor.
Not sure I'd use the Pats performance in the first game as a reason to be supremely confident.
Yes, the Patriots should win, but the Giants are the last team they would pick to face. Should be a competitive game with a chance for an upset.
DJ replies: "Both sides were more banged up the that game than they are now. You can make arguments either way about which injuries were more of a factor.
Not sure I'd use the Pats performance in the first game as a reason to be supremely confident."
They won. They won in the Giants' playpen despite having 40% of their offensive line and blocking tight end out, and the strength of the Giants team is their pass rush.
18-0 and having beaten a slew of playoff teams at home and on the road are a pretty good reason to feel confident. Tom Brady against Eli Manning is an even better reason.
These two teams play 10 times, the Patriots win 9 times. Maybe Sunday will be that 10th time, but I'd guess not.
Tim says: "Yes, the Patriots should win, but the Giants are the last team they would pick to face."
Why would a team they've already beaten, on the road, when they were banged up be the "last team they would pick to face?" There's no reason to think they care who they face. If they play well, they'll win. Nothing that's happened this season gives them any reason to think otherwise. Their strengths match up very well against the Giants' strengths. Their wide receivers match up extremely well against the Giants' weak secondary.
People have been claiming for months now that "THIS WILL BE THE END OF THE STREAK." I think you'll see it end sometime in 2008, but not on Sunday.
As a few real football fans have pointed out elsewhere, the proper comparison for the Giants is not the 2001 Patriots (a 2 seed who played excellent football the last half of the season, had a dominating defense, a mistake free QB from nowhere), the proper comparison is the '85 Pats (a wildcard who won 3 playoff games on the road including one over a hated divisional rival and had a QB who was a first round pick but appeared to the fans to lack leadership skills). As we all know the '85 Pats got crushed. I'd think about taking the Pats with the points on this one.
Burress has a bad leg/ankle, and by shooting off his mouth has managed to piss off the Pats and even members of his own team. Eli will fold in the spotlight. The Pats will cover.
I think the Giants will rise to the occasion big time with a last minute touchdown to just barely beat the spread 42-31.
thanks for jinxing the giants, matt. or is this a lame bob costas 'giggle, giggle, I'm picking them as a joke but then I can say i was right if they win' move? lame
Stick to politics, Matt...you're better at it.
Looks like you're picking the wrong side in football as well as in politics.
You know that Eli Manning is the QB for the Giants right? Also that their secondary is decimated?
Have you even watched football before? The Giants have 'happy to be here' written all over them.
42-17 Pats
I really don't see why people are predicting a blowout game. The Giants played the Pats tight in week 17 (winning for a good deal of it) with a slew of injuries to boot. Manning has played solid (if unexciting) mistake free football on the road, in the playoffs. The secondary is in much better shape than it was when the Giants played against the Cowboys, Packers or Patriots. The Jacobs/Bradshaw show is finally fitting into the offense nicely and, on the flip side, the Giants' defense shut down a 200 yard rusher in what should have been a rush heavy game at Green Bay.
I'm not saying the giants are going to win, but it seems that an objective look at the situation (expecially with a poor Patriots performance against a banged up Chargers team in the previous game) the game should be good and close.
On any given Sunday...
MDK ignores that:
1. The Patriots were at least as banged up in that game as the Giants were.
2. The Patriots blew the crap out of the Giants late in the game, and the Giants scored a late touchdown to make it close.
3. Tom Brady was injured in the Chargers game and the outcome of that game was still really never in doubt.
4. Calling someone a "200 yard rusher" because he did it once is just extremely silly. So what? There have been plenty of running backs who have had big games or half seasons who weren't really great. And the Packers, for some weird reason, gave up on the run.
5. The Patriots are better than the Giants.
Good luck on Sunday, Giants fans and Patriots haters. You'll need it.
MoeLarryAndJesus:
Actually I was merely making the point that the game would be a lot closer than the blowout some folks were saying. A point that seems lost on you.
If you don't like my "200 yard rusher" example (4), just look to their total seasonal offense. They were ranked 8th in the league in total defense. They had recently limited both Dallas (number 2 offense) and Green Bay (number 3 Offense) to 17 and 21 points respectively. Sure the Patriots were also banged up in week 17 but the game was still only by 3 points (1). Even if the Giants did score a "garbage" touchdown at the end of th egame, it still shows they can put up 35 points against the Patriots, the most the Patriots gave up all year.
Funny how the Patriots "blew the crap" out of the Giants once the GIants secondary was diminished. This week they have a much healthier secondady which is playing with a lot more confidence (the last offensive play for their opponents in the last three games were interceptions).
As for 3, the Chargers game was a lot closer than the score suggests. Twice the Chargers (with a very injured QB and no star they built the offense around) settled for field goals in the red zone. And Norv Turner isn't exactly a coaching genius either (see: punting to the Patiorts while in Pat territory in the 4th quarter). The Patriots aren't going to win on Sunday if they have to rely on their defense that much.
I agree that the Patriots are better than the Giants. Being 18-0 usually means you are better than everybody else, but that doesn't make them unstoppable. The Giants played them close in week 17 and I see no reason not to expect the same in the Super Bowl. In either event it should be a good game.
Nothing hates success more than failure (my quote). Your hatred of the Pats speaks to your position....
Comments closed February 14, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
I'm not even considering NY winning this game, just trying to figure out how much money I'm willing to put down on the point spread for the Patriots.
Every indication I have, from past Super Bowls and this season, as well as Belicheck and Brady's histories, is that the Patriots blow out the Giants and Eli Manning gets spanked.
It's too bad really, because I'd love to see a great game.
Posted by Jimm | January 31, 2008 7:25 PM