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Stimulus

15 Jan 2008 04:27 pm

Paul Krugman criticized Barack Obama's plans for economic stimulus as compared to those offered by John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Brad DeLong, on the other hand, thinks Obama is on the right track, seeing it as closer in line with the principles articulated here by Jason Furman and Douglas W. Elmendorf.

Of course, the two perspectives aren't necessarily in tension. Krugman writes that:

Obama came out with a real stimulus plan. As was the case with his health care plan, which fell short of universal coverage, his stimulus proposal is similar to those of the other Democratic candidates, but tilted to the right . . . the Obama plan appears to contain none of the alternative energy initiatives that are in both the Edwards and Clinton proposals, and emphasizes across-the-board tax cuts over both aid to the hardest-hit families and help for state and local governments. I know that Mr. Obama’s supporters hate to hear this, but he really is less progressive than his rivals on matters of domestic policy. In short, the stimulus debate offers a pretty good portrait of the men and woman who would be president. And I haven’t said a word about their hairstyles.

DeLong thinks Obama has a better plan. Krugman thinks Obama's plan is less left-wing than is Clinton's or Edwards' and that this provides a window into Obama's soul -- a more meaningful window than is offered by speculations about haircuts, and one which reveals a man who lacks mettle. DeLong, by contrast, says:

John Edwards and Hillary Rodham Clinton and their staffs--they don't seem to have grasped that governance is best when you ask congress to do things that are within its competence, and ask the administrative branch to do things that are within its competence. They might respond that these stimulus packages are political rather than policy documents--acts of campaigning rather than acts of governance--and they are right, up to a point.

To me, I see documents that are almost entirely about political positioning. None of these people can possibly become president until January of 2009 at which point appropriate short-term economic policy is going to be different from appropriate short-term economic policy for January 2008. I see some reason to believe that an Edwards administration would draw more senior staff from the labor-liberal, trade skeptical, deficit-friendly wing of the center-left than would an Obama or a Clinton administration. But the two front-running candidates would, based on everything I know, be staffed by a very similar group of people on big-picture macroeconomic issues.

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Comments (33)

Of course, not a single plan, no matter how wonkish (HRC) or populist (Edwards) or inspirational (Barack), will have a snowball's chance in Tikrit of passing Congress unless the Democrats really increase their majority in the Senate.

It is disappointing to see Krugman turn hackish like the rest of them. His value on the Op-ed page was cutting through the bullshit, not peddling it.

This is one of those cases where I'm not sure that a stimulus plan is the solution, here.

This isn't a matter of irrational panic causing capital flight. It's wholly rational. And it's not a matter of a decline of aggregate demand getting the economy in a rut-- if anything there was a glut of aggregate demand caused by excess liquidity.

I'm not sure that stimulus is necessary as much as simply some bankruptcy relief for people who need to foreclose on their homes or default on their credit cards.

Usually, I would agree. But right now the Democrats are uniquely positioned, with presidential candidates who are not miles apart on policy and a nominally Democratic Congress. The result, handled right, could be like a shadow party in Parliment, but with a working majority.

If the candidates could/would agree on a common Democratic Presidential stimulus package, they could force its introduction, a vote and a likely veto. If nothing else, that would give whichever one of them emerges as the nominee something to run on in the general, and a club to beat on the Republican candidate (who also would doubtless oppose the Democratic Presidential stimulus package), as well as a way to blame the severity of the recession on both the R party and the post-Bush candidate.

I REALLY wish the candidates or their staffs would get together to do this. The differences between these three proposals could be composed in one afternoon of not even very hard bargaining.

"To me, I see documents that are almost entirely about political positioning."

Correct.

And after a year that repeatedly and consistently shows Barack Obama politically positioning himself on the right of the field on domestic issues, Matthew continues to argue that an Obama Presidency would be no different than the other Democratic candidates on domestic issues.

If you run to the right, you're going to govern to the right.

This ain't complicated. Matthew just doesn't want to believe his lying eyes.

So... Krugman won't be happy unless the package is not just left-wing, but so left-wing that it contains obviously dumb ideas, because the only way you can tell the person proposing it is truly left-wing is that they're sufficiently blinkered by ideology to embrace policies that a more moderate Democrat would reject as stupid - like "public investment in alternative energy" as an effective short-term stimulus.

"I REALLY wish the candidates or their staffs would get together to do this. The differences between these three proposals could be composed in one afternoon of not even very hard bargaining."

wendell, you miss the point that these proposals are different by design, not by accident.

Obama has positioned himself to the right of the field on the stimulus issue, as he has with so many other issues. Again, this is by design, not by accident.

I have no respect for Krugman's intellectual honesty, and now I have none for anyone who doesn't see through him. He doesn't see through himself, so that includes him again.

I don't think he's missing the point, Petey. He's arguing that for the benefit of the Democratic party they should compromise on their differences to put together a single plan right now. The problem here is that I doubt the candidates are willing to compromise their chance at winning the nomination to do so. Either they don't care about the party (*cough* Clinton *cough*) or they see winning the nomination as having greater positive impact.

Culinary union endorsements aside, the knives are out for Obama.

If you run to the right, you're going to govern to the right.

The right of what? If it is John Edwards (circa 2008), 85-90% of Americans (best guess) are to his right. And as far as Hillary is concerned, well isn't she everywhere?

"If you run to the right, you're going to govern to the right"

That just isn't true historically.

Obama has positioned himself to the right of the field on the stimulus issue, as he has with so many other issues. Again, this is by design, not by accident.

Krugman said that in his column, but I couldn't follow his reasons for it. The main differences between the plans just seemed to be that Obama's was designed to be passed quickly and get money into people's hands quickly to lessen the impact of the downturn in a timely manner, while the other plans contained additional things that are good longer term things to do, but don't really fall into the category of short-term stimulus and would, as DeLong points out, make the package harder to pass.

Krugman's response seemed kneejerk to me. I think the guy is just on automatic pilot now as far as his interventions into the campaign go.

The references to haircuts allows me to post this Youtube of Obama's barber shop.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bO3g7olblIk

"The right of what? If it is John Edwards (circa 2008), 85-90% of Americans (best guess) are to his right."

Yup. And yet Edwards continues to do better in general election matchups than Obama or Clinton. Funny how that works.

In other words, Edwards is doing better selling leftism to the general election swing voter than Obama is doing doing selling centrism to them.

-----

Obama has repeatedly and consistently shown during this long campaign that the first thing he's willing to throw overboard to appease the center is lefty policy.

I think that's a reliable window into how he'd conduct himself as President. And I don't like it.

Petey, what's your point? Do you think Edwards actually has a chance to win the nomination at this point?

As to Obama vs. Hillary, sure, Obama's policy positions are perhaps somewhat to the right of Hillary's. But does anybody believe that Hillary is genuinely a supporter of liberal domestic policy measures? She has precisely zero credibility with me after 8 years of her husband in the white house and 7 years in the Senate.

If you run to the right, you're going to govern to the right. This ain't complicated.

This is nonsense. Ask George Bush how his "compassionate conservatism" or his "humble foreign policy" is going.

"That just isn't true historically."

Strongly disagree, especially on domestic issues.

All of the post-Watergate Presidents - Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush - have basically governed where they campaigned on the ideological spectrum on domestic issues.

"Petey, what's your point? Do you think Edwards actually has a chance to win the nomination at this point?"

I do think he has a small but quite real chance at this point.

But that's not my point. My point is precisely what I'm saying, that Obama has been repeatedly and consistently positioning himself to the right of the field for a year now, and folks like Matthew who keep trying to convince themselves that Obama doesn't really mean it are fooling themselves.

We all know, of course, that after the 1993 stimulus package failed, the economy remained in the tank for another decade. Oh, wait . . .

Krugman (1) falsely ascribes normative significance to where Obama's plan falls on the left-right spectrum, as(1a) it's exogenous to the merits of the plans, (1b) not a lot of distance between the various candidates, all in all, and (1c) Congress will pass what it passes; nmoreover, Krugman (2) repeats his nonsense about Obama's health care plan as (2a) being "universal" is insignificant as long as people who want coverage can afford it, and (2b) Clinton's and Edwards's plans aren't "universal" because mandates don't work.

To:

"Petey, what's your point? Do you think Edwards actually has a chance to win the nomination at this point?"Posted by John | January 15, 2008 5:22 PM

http://action.credomobile.com/sirota/2008/01/for_those_of_you_who_think_its.html

January 14, 2008 9:03 AM
For the Blowhards Who Insist It's a Two-Way Race...

For those of you who think the Democratic presidential nomination fight is just a two-way race between Obama and Clinton, check out this brand new poll from the Reno Gazette-Journal. Yup, that's right - it shows the Nevada caucus race a three-way, dead heat with John Edwards right in the mix.

For those of you who think the Democratic presidential nomination fight is just a two-way race between Obama and Clinton, check out this brand new poll from the Reno Gazette-Journal. Yup, that's right - it shows the Nevada caucus race a three-way, dead heat with John Edwards right in the mix.

Interestingly, this poll comes right on the heels of the Establishment viciously ratcheting up its angry attacks on the Edwards candidacy. Late last week, we saw a Reuters story headlined "Corporate Elite Fear Candidate Edwards" detailing how Wall Street moneymen and K Street lobbyists are frightened about Edwards populist, power-challenging message against greed and corruption. We also saw self-anointed Democratic "expert" Lawrence O'Donnell pen a fulminating screed demanding Edwards get out of the race - not surprising coming from a man who made his name running the U.S. Senate Finance Committee - long the most corrupt, lobbyist-ravaged panel in all of Washington (somehow, running the U.S. Congress's version of a pay-to-play casino now makes people credile "experts" in campaign strategy and political morality).

According to the nonpartisan Project for Excellence in Journalism, Edwards has long faced a media blackout - one that at least some honest media brokers like Keith Olbermann have noted. As I said a long time ago, that Edwards has even been able to compete in such a hostile environment is a testament to the power of his message.

The question we should ask is what the hostility and media blackout is really all about? I'd say the media's behavior is motivated by the same impulses that moves lobbyists to whine and cry to Reuters and self-important bloviators like O'Donnell to publicly burst a blood vessel on the Huffington Post - the people who have gotten used to the status quo are truly terrified by any candidates who they really believe will change things and threaten their power and status. Edwards is just such a candidate - one who threatens to muck up what the media and political elite want to be a race between two "nonthreatening," Wall Street-approved candidates. Obviously, it's a three-way race at this very moment - whether the Establishment likes that or not.

Let me conclude by saying I have no idea if the Gazette-Journal poll is accurate and/or whether Edwards will win Nevada (or any other state). Unlike most reporters, I don't spend my time covering the horse race, nor judging the candidates' viability only on the grounds of how much corporate cash they've been able to vacuum in. I spend my time trying to figure out which of these candidates represent the most fundamental form of change. One of the ways to judge that is to see who these candidates make uncomfortable. And by that measure, here's what I know: Edwards is generating hostility from precisely the kinds of people who are likely to be most averse to real, systemic change. And that speaks very well for the former senator from North Carolina.

Posted by David Sirota

What's more disturbing about Obama's tax cut plan is that he proposed it a year ago, and is now just repackaging it as a 'stimulas' package. It wasn't deisigned for 'quick passage' in response to economic problems it was designed as a political plank only, and conveniently retooled ala Bush. As the Angry Bear wrote:

For Senator Obama to be playing this supposed omniscient game with a tax cut that was not perfectly designed to combat a recession strikes me as rather bad politics if one wishes to capture the Democratic nomination. After all – we should leave the praising of past GOP Administrations to those clowns who think the road map to the White House starts at the alter of Saint Ronald.

I hate to say this, but the Dem Presidential candidate that eventually wins (knock on wood) should take a page out of Bush's political playbook and always overshoot what congress can reasonably achieve so that they'll compromise by giving up pretty much everything that the President asks for. Think about it: Despite a majority in congress run by his opponents, Bush has gotten almost everything he's asked for - with sugar on top, e.g. "We will NOT fund the war anymore!" then, "Okay, here's $70 billion".

Obama is a conciliatory centrist by nature. Of course he is going to govern from closer to the center. If it was 1992 I would vote for him.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/05/07/070507fa_fact_macfarquhar

History is repeating itself here. In 1992, Bill Clinton proposed a stimulus package. It turned into a kind of a miniature pork barrel package with gifts for big city mayors and the like. You may remember a mini-controversy about a line-item for "Midnight Basketball".

At any rate, the thing didn't pass, Clinton turned into a deficit hawk instead, and that stimulated the economy just fine and we had 8 years of sustained growth.

Lesson: unless we are in a depression, we don't need no stinking stimulus!

Obama has positioned himself to the right of the field on the stimulus issue, as he has with so many other issues.

Hm. I don't automatically assume that the plan that is the most "left" (or more "progressive", in the parlance of our times) is necessarily the best plan.

I guess that makes me Republican-lite.

This ain't complicated.

Actually, if you ask me, economic policy is rather complicated and shouldn't be couched in simplistic, left-right terminology.

David B. and a few others here have gone on the money. Krugman didn't explain why Obama's package "tilts to the right," he just asserted it. If its all about the lack of alternative fuels, that's neither here nor there, since alternative fuels will be part of separate enviro policy.

I assume most here are not economists, so this is just echo chamber politics using Krugman's column as fighting words.

So, how about Petey or anyone else here provide a credible explanation of how Obama's plan is futher to the right than CLinton and Edward's plans. (and don't follow Krugman in comparing his initial pre-plan COMMENTS rather than his real plan).

Put up, or... (however that phrase ends)

Eli--

Well said. It seems like if you follow Krugman's implicit rationale to its logical end, the ideal stimulus plan would, among other things, restore habeas, mandate single payer healthcare, cure cancer, and institute public financing of elections.

After all, what true progressive would oppose any of these?

Krugman's taking his eye off the ball here, and it makes me sad.

Two comments. The first is about the difference between Krugman and DeLong. The second is about the pointlessness of any specific stimulus package.

Brad DeLong has served in government; Paul Krugman has not. That, by itself, is likely to produce a split as to what the best approach is.

As for the stimulus package itself, who cares? No Democrat is going to take office for more than a year. The economy, based upon the preliminary data I've looked at, entered recession in either November or December. In the most likely scenario, I think that that means that the recession is over, or nearly so, by the time whoever it is is inaugurated. In that case, a stimulus package, per se, is a bad idea. There are a lot of policy choices that need to be made to try to produce a more equitable society, but stimulating the economy isn't the goal in and of itself.

If we are still in the depths of a recession a year from now, the problem is a whole lot worse than any of the candidates is discussing now. In that case, all of the policy proposals being thrown out now will have been discarded in the face of an economic downturn worse than 1981-82 or 1973-74, and everyone will be discussing far more comprehensive plans.

It is sad to see how far Krugman has fallen in his retreat from serious and balanced analysis of the policy proposals being offered by the Democratic candidates, resorting instead to the use of crude labels and ad-hominem attacks to prove that Obama is somehow to the right of the other Dem candidates.

In the process, he has certainly lost credibility with respect to any judgement that he makes about the relative merits of the proposals of all three leading candidates including his favorite.

Brad DeLong has served in government; Paul Krugman has not.

Incorrect.

Matt seems to agree you govern how you run.
From the Mitt piece earlier today: "He's running as a conservative right now, and that means that if he wins he'll govern as a conservative -- no use hoping for him to morph back into the moderate he was in 1994 or 2002."

Krugman spent a year on the staff of the Council of Economic Advisers and mentioned this just yesterday on his blog.

Once we put Obama and a big conservative duck on my largest scales we will know if he is less progressive than the other candidates.

Eli,

Well put. No one (Delong and Krugman included) is really sure which stimulus would work best, or even if any of them will have a noticeable effect.

We know a few policies that the government can folow that would really tank the economy: protectionism, rampant inflation, price controls. There is no consensus about how to grow the economy, however, even in the very short term. There are Keynsian counter-cyclicalists and there are supply siders at various levels of nuttiness, but none of them can demonstrate that their policies work, or that their opponents' policies don't.

So they argue about political feasibility or degrees of liberalism because commentators have to comentate. Even if they have nothing of substance to say.

It's all sound and fury.

What pointless, pedantic overparsing. Krugman obviously doesn't think that progessive policies are good an sich, but rather good because of their consequences. Durr.


Comments closed January 29, 2008.

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