Stuck in the Middle With Mitt

The really bad news for Mitt Romney here isn't really that he lost to John McCain. Rather, the problem is that Mike Huckabee is staying in the race, while Rudy Giuliani is dropping out and will presumably be endorsing McCain soon. In a head-to-head race it's quite possible to see Romney consolidating anti-McCain sentiment and winning. But if Huckabee can keep his fanbase, that lets McCain win primaries in conservative states without the need to secure majorities.

Comments

Are you sure that Huck's fans would vote for a Mormon? Seems that they might just stay home (or even vote for McCain) if Huck were out of the race.

Posted by nbt | January 29, 2008 9:36 PM

I think Romney just said, "our jobs are under attack from countries like Asia and India."

What a doofus.

Posted by southpaw | January 29, 2008 9:37 PM

Why? I don't get it. Why would Huckabee supporters gravitate to Mitt Romney? Amy Sullivan think the evangelical community would never go for a Mormon. And, what, is Romney more socially conservative than McCain? Romney, who likes gays and abortion rights, over the staunch Arizona conservative? I'm confused.

Posted by Ady | January 29, 2008 9:38 PM

Why? I don't get it. Why would Huckabee supporters gravitate to Mitt Romney? Amy Sullivan think the evangelical community would never go for a Mormon. And, what, is Romney more socially conservative than McCain? Romney, who likes gays and abortion rights, over the staunch Arizona conservative? I'm confused.

Posted by Ady | January 29, 2008 9:39 PM

Why? I don't get it. Why would Huckabee supporters gravitate to Mitt Romney? Amy Sullivan think the evangelical community would never go for a Mormon. And, what, is Romney more socially conservative than McCain? Romney, who likes gays and abortion rights, over the staunch Arizona conservative? I'm confused.

Posted by Ady | January 29, 2008 9:40 PM

Ady, Romney stopped liking gays and abortion rights as soon as he saw a chance to run for president.

Posted by David T | January 29, 2008 10:50 PM

Recall both that everyone on the trail dislikes Mitt Romney (for spending lots of his own money to violate Reagan's 11th Commandment and for his perceived flipflops) and that Huckabee has been quite laudatory of John McCain in past debates.

If we assume (as Matt does, but the assumption can be questioned) that Huckabee's social conservative voters would go to Romney if Huckabee dropped out, then could Huckabee be staying in precisely to throw the race to McCain?

Posted by Kevin | January 29, 2008 11:21 PM

Wrong, Matt. Go read your Atlantic co-blogger, who puts up some actual numbers on the issue:

http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/a_ray_of_hope_for_romney.php

To summarize---among Huck voters, McCain is the 2nd choice for about 50%, Romney for about 30%.

Posted by JoshA | January 29, 2008 11:53 PM

Apparently (according to polling) McCain is actually the most popular second choice for Huckabee voters, while Romney is the most popular second choice for Giuliani voters. So having Rudy drop and Mike stay in actually is good for Romney (though not in any particularly dramatic way). Of course if Rudy's endorsement carries weight then the polling might be moot.

Posted by bbartlog | January 30, 2008 12:02 AM

I like Mitt because he reminds me of Michael Scott from the Office.

Posted by nattyb | January 30, 2008 1:01 AM

Might another consideration be closed primaries vs. open primaries?

According to CNN, Romney and McCain tied among GOP voters (33%-33%), who made up 80% of those voting. But McCain cleaned up with independents (44%-23%), who were 17% of the electorate. What happens in states where only registered Republicans are allowed to vote?

Posted by Another Chris | January 30, 2008 1:36 AM