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The Electable Huckabee

07 Jan 2008 09:46 am

The trouble with having Bill Kristol as a New York Times columnist is not just that he's prone to saying substantive things about the issues that I disagree with. He's also the kind of guy who when he goes out on a weird limb and says Mike Huckabee would have a good chance of winning in a general election, you immediately start wondering why he's saying that.

"Because he believes it" doesn't tend to rank very high on the list. That's his rep, and based on his record it seems like a deserved rep. But when you read your morning paper and find yourself wondering why, exactly, its authors are trying to mislead you, then your morning paper is suddenly not so useful.

But if we entertain the premise that Kristol does think Huckabee would make a good general election candidate, then what he's doing is conflating the fact that Huckabee is the most appealing natural politician in the Republican field with the idea that the actually existing Huckabee would do well. Someone like Huckabee -- someone with something comparable to his ability to connect with people -- could be a very successful figure in American politics. Someone like Huckabee could be Bill Clinton. But Huckabee is Huckabee, not a Huckabee-like substitute; a niche product, a white evangelical identity politics candidate.

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Comments (47)

You have to wonder if simply over time at the NYTs the ickyness of Kristol's thought will bring about his own downfall in sort of Robert Novak fashion.

Re Robert Novak

Since cocksucking shithead Novak still appears twice a week in the Washington Post, I don't quite see where his downfall occurred.

"when you read your morning paper and find yourself wondering why, exactly, its authors are trying to mislead you, then your morning paper is suddenly not so useful."

Words that apply, not just to the Grey Lady, but to the Washington Post as well. And to much of the broadcast media, I'd expect.

Very well put, Matt.

Shorter MY: Is Kristol puffing up Huckabee to take votes from McCain or Romney?

Someone like Huckabee could be Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton is Mike Huckabee plus about 120 IQ points.

Wow, I so going to spend a whole lot of my time this morning puzzling whether or not Bill Kristol is lying because he believes his lies, or is lying in order to once again schmuck for his agenda against that of Democrats and liberals like he always does.

Gosh, and I'll get to that important puzzling right after I get done pouring paint all over the carpet, letting it dry, and then trying to scrub it out with cotton balls.

I think you're ignoring the fact that there is a strong evangelical base in America that would vote for Huckabee as well as the fact that he's not unwilling to call out George Bush when he finds it necessary.

On issues: he's a loser.

But he has charisma and he has a strong base among evangelicals that would rally to his candidacy as they did to George Bush's candidacy.

If Clinton wins the nomionation there are large parts of the electrolate that have indicated they'll stay home rather than cast a vote for her; and Huckabee is an affable guy in the George W. model who wouldn't scare them since he's more than willing to call out the last adminstration.

Furthermore, Bloomberg would surely jump in that race. The sad thing is, he'd take votes from Hillary and I doubt win given the institutional hurdles against third party candidates.

So a Huckbee win if Clinton pulls out the nomination is not against the grain; and I think is likely something Kristol is hoping for as well and probably thinks likely.

Smirking Bill: print troll.

(SLC: could you make it clear whether you think the warmongering Jew is worse than the apostate one?)

Kristol writes: "[T]he fact is that the Republican establishment spent 2007 underestimating Mike Huckabee. If Huckabee does win the nomination, it would be amusing if Democrats made the same mistake in 2008."

You've been warned. Huckabee is a fantastic natural politician who is not as completely out-of-step with the broader electorate as you seem to think.

His economic populism taps into real concerns of the middle-class and poor voters who have handed Republicans plenty of electoral victories.

And the rest of the country isn't as horrified by the idea of a pastor as president as secular liberals. Many are sympathetic to, if not impassioned by, the causes Christian conservatives. Of course, they would be turned off by an angry, hateful, socially right-wing culture warrior. But Huckabee comes across as more of a regular guy who can be comfortable around those he may disagree with. Kristol quotes one secular New Hampshire Republican after seeing Huck play guitar with a rock band: “Gee, he’s not some kind of crazy Christian. He’s an ordinary American.”

I predict that Obama will win in a landslide against Huckabee, with Huckabee's electoral college delegates largely limited to the Deep South, but he is dangerous. Huckabee certainly could defeat candidates with less crossover appeal than Obama (such as Gore, Kerry, or Hillary), and may even give Obama a fight.

But Huckabee is Huckabee, not a Huckabee-like substitute; a niche product, a white evangelical identity politics candidate.

Finally Matt, you're making your case for a cable news pundit spot...

Nice.

For anyone that thinks Huckabee can't win a general election just remember one thing. Look at the White House now and how he got there(with the help of a corrupted TradMed).

"Because he believes it" doesn't tend to rank very high on the list.

Thank you. There is always this curious ellipses of the obvious but unspoken around neocons like Kristol and Brooks, and after a while, the lay public wonders if, though obvious, it is known to the media folk.

It is hard to see Huck holding on to all the states Bush won in 2004. The western states and Ohio would be a challenge. But it's still a long time until November.

The point is not, can Huckabee win the general. The point is, he is not going to get the nomination. Kristol knows this perfectly well, so the question becomes, why the fuck is he talking about Huckabee in the general at this moment in time.

Bill- Because he wants McCain to be the nominee and anything that hurts Romney in New Hampshire is good for McCain?

But really, who has time for this kind of Kremlinology?

MY is describing a case of what Harry Frankfurt called bullshit. Given which, one wonders whether there's a note of condescension in this bit from Kristol: But voters seem to be enjoying making up their own minds this year. Like endearing, self-assertive children.

Given which, one wonders whether there's a note of condescension in this bit from Kristol: But voters seem to be enjoying making up their own minds this year. Like endearing, self-assertive children.

I think he more just enjoyed the spectacle of Romney blowing it in Iowa.

Funny post, maybe Kristol does believe Huckabee can win. Such belief would require a complete lack of faith in the voting population's willingness to evaluate policy proposals and career records and a heavy weight on the value of personal charisma.

If that's what it takes, maybe Kristol's on to something. The percentage of the public that evaluates policy proposals and career records is only slightly larger than the percentage reading this blog.

Once again, Kristol is being disingenuous. I'm referring to the notion that a Bloomberg candidacy would siphon off voters from Obama, rather than Huckabee.

Obama's candidacy draws strength from under 30 voters and independents, and the various Progressive factions would IMHO side with him over a billionaire late comer. Huckabee has a reliable constituancy with the Evangelical set, and virtually no one else on the Republican side. I would bet that the Wall Street and K Street factions would be quick to abandon Huckabee for Bloomberg.

My guess is Bill Kristol is looking to spread some FUD to start off what looks like a disappointing year for the Red team...

Perhaps Kristol is just wishfully thinking or just trying to get ahead of the curve. Since I think Huckabee will be the Republican nominee, I also think Republicans of various ilks will have to come to grips with this reality. Maybe Kristol is trying it on for size.

Huckabee is a good campaigner and that certainly carries more weight than wonkery in our system. He certainly has a base. He might actually be the guy to have a beer with that W never was. Kristol generally makes my skin crawl but since my thinking is pretty much in line with his editorial I have to give him a pass on content. Whether he actually believes what he is writing is beyond me.

I predict Huckabee-Lieberman. You saw it here first.

If people here really think Huckabe is unelectable, I have no faith in their political judgment. Of the Republican candidates, ONLY Mike Huckabe has any real shot at winning.

John McCain won't survive a 'Bomb, Bomb, bomb Iran' general election commercial. Mitt Romney won't survive a campaign designed to drive down the wingnut vote. Rudy just isn't going to get the nomination. Mick Huckabe, However, is running against the Republican party and against the Democratic party. He is running against a culture of corporate greed that is extremely unpopular right now. Don't think for a moment that his religious views will overcome that.

Basically, you're idiots making the mistake that people who vote in the general election know as much about the minutae of his beliefs as you do, and that they will actually care as much about evolution as they do with a wage that hasn't increased in 20 years. It's simple class bias, you're doing to well to really understand Huckabe's message. Most people are doing poorly, however, and they will be voting entirely on economic issues

Huckabee is unelectable by everyone in the country except Evangelicals and by themselves they're not enough to propel him past a Democratic rival. I think Kristol is actually doing this to whip up the non-religious base a little bit, try and get them energized about first, removing the Huckabee factor and then hopefully carrying that into supporting one of the other clowns that's running on the GOP side.

What you've just said about Huckabee is exactly what everyone in the mainstream press said about Reagan in 1979 and 1980 -- he was a natural politician with fruitcake ideas who could never actually win the general election, and Republicans would never pick him for that very reason. But look what happened. With that history, Huckabee scares me.

"Because he believes it" doesn't tend to rank very high on the list. That's his rep, and based on his record it seems like a deserved rep. But when you read your morning paper and find yourself wondering why, exactly, its authors are trying to mislead you, then your morning paper is suddenly not so useful."

This is an important point. These Straussian assholes rarely say what they actually believe, especially to a mass audience. If he was born into the middle class, Kristol would be pharmacuetical salesman or a claims adjuster. Since he's the spawn of Irving Kristol, we get to hear what he "thinks" about politics and war, prompting his victims to cry- "Who the fuck are you trying to fool, jagoff?"

Re: "Curious ellipses":

Kristol does it less obviously than Brooks at least.

Huckabee could win. He has shown a remarkably adept skill at adapting the substance and tone of his message.

Huckabee is completely electable. Anecdotal evidence comes from my staunchly Dem family. Here's my stepfather's most recent question for me, "What do you think of Huckabee? Anyone who can play the bass like that is alright with me." My stepfather hasn't gone to church in over 20 years, has never voted Republican, and reads the newspaper every day.

Underestimate the Huck at your peril.

Re: "Curious ellipses":

Kristol does it less obviously than Brooks at least.

Huckabee could win. He has shown a remarkably adept skill at adapting the substance and tone of his message.

But when you read your morning paper and find yourself wondering why, exactly, its authors are trying to mislead you, then your morning paper is suddenly not so useful.

I always thought the Dallas Morning News was the worst newspaper in the world (in a large metropolitan area, natch). Then I came here, and Oh, Wow, Dude, the WaPo is tracendentally awful. Impressive.

At any rate, apparently the NYT is vying for a new name (New York Toilet, anyone?) in the spirit of competition.

max
['I suggest not reading him, Matthew; you can't nuke the sod from orbit, so best just to let him chatter on in silence, like he wrote for the Sun.']

I'd tend to agree with Soullite and Lynn.

I'd think that Huckabee would have a difficult time winning a general election, but far from an impossible one. And I think this "normal guy" personality and economic populism card would play very well against either a Clinton or an Obama.

I'd even go so far as to predict that in a Huckabee-Obama race, Huckabee would win the largest share of the black vote of any Republican candidate in at least the last several decades...which would be pretty ironic to say the least...

I posit that Kristol's screeds have zero causal effect upon Huckabee's electability, and are causally related only to whatever robotic political goal Kristol has at the moment, to be changed and forgotten at any point in the future with no regard whatsoever to what had been so firmly argued 2 seconds before.

For Kristol and his neocon pals, having the ear of the Emperor is the important thing. McCain was the neocon first choice in 2000, buy they wound up being pretty satisfied with Bush, what with Wolfowitz, Feith, Libby, etc. all getting key positions. Kristol is just keeping the neocon channels open in case Huckabee wins the nomination or the presidency itself. Neocon Frank Gaffney is already a foreign policy adviser to Huckabee.

Bill Kristol is the kind of guy who won't even tell people if he believes one of the central scientific findings of the last 200 years -- natural selection and the evolution of species (you can look it up). He's hiding the fact either because he believes it and doesn't want to lose influence with the evangelical common people, or he doesn't believe it but doesn't want to lose influence with his peers in the educated elite. Either way the guy lacks the sort of commitment to truth -- and speaking truth against interest -- which differentiates a valuable public intellectual from a political hack.

Weirdest sentence in the whole thing:

"After the last two elections, featuring the well-born George Bush and Al Gore and John Kerry, Americans — even Republicans! — are ready for a likable regular guy."

Myself I'm wondering how Huckabee got left off this site: http://www.fittobepres.com

But when you read your morning paper and find yourself wondering why, exactly, its authors are trying to mislead you, then your morning paper is suddenly not so useful.

That about sums it up with Kristol. His first column is one long lie. His whole identity is a lie. He is not a conservative (in the incremental, Burkean sense). He is not a social conservative. He is not a classical liberal. He has no overlap with any of the ideological traditions of the right. Yet he's the NYT voice for a philosophy he doesn't hold.

How dare he mention limited government after shilling for Bush's Right Wing Wilsonian Progressivism for all these years.

Huckabee certainly could defeat candidates with less crossover appeal than Obama (such as Gore, Kerry, or Hillary), and may even give Obama a fight.

I am not a Huckster but it would be fun to listen to Dems explain to the rest of us why his eleven years as Arkansas Governor count for less than Obama's stint in the IL Statehouse.

But then again, the answer will probably be, experience, shmexperience. As Hillary is finding out.

Credibility is key. The only thing emptier than Hillary Clinton is her hyperbole; nobody's buying the rhetoric or her. Bill Clinton may have crowned himself the “comeback kid,” in another decade, in another millennium. Of course, that was also before he elected to school us on the vagaries of the word, is.

When FBI Director Louis J. Freeh wrote, “The problem was with Bill Clinton, the scandals and rumored scandals, the incubating ones and the dying ones never ended. Whatever moral compass the president was consulting [Hillary] was leading him in the wrong direction. His closets were full of skeletons just waiting to burst out,” Mr. Freeh wasn’t kidding.

I don’t know the exact date the Clintons flushed their compasses, but any right thinking person should feel demeaned at the thought of voting for Hillary. A vote is more than mere tacit approval; in this case it’s tantamount to complicity. So, I’m more than delighted the good people of the State of Iowa told Hillary to ride out on the horse (helicopter) on which she rode in, and I pray the good people of the State of New Hampshire will follow suit. I believe the good people of the State of South Carolina are already licking their chops. But if the guiding principle of history truly is irony, then savor: http://theseedsof9-11.com

I tend to agree with RKU and Bob Weber.

I believe Huckabee may well end up being the Republican nominee. The right-end punditry viewed Iowa more as a Romney loss (Hooray! Our boy McCain is back in the fight!) than a Huckabee win. The right to spin results to your heart's content is guaranteed in the Constitution (unless Dick Cheney can do something in the next few months), but what Huckabee did was impressive and my guess is he'll win South Carolina. And, if and when Romney fades (starting to look more like when), where does he send his organization? My guess would be to Huckabee. Huckabee may be the flavor-of-the-month, but the compressed selection process barely lasts that long.

Can Huckabee win in November? Sure he could. I do think Bloomberg gets in, but my guess is that he takes more of the Republican suburban base than more traditional segments of the Democratic party. That hurts both candidates, Obama in the sense that the 30-45 Republican crowd that may cross over for him would instead go to Bloomberg, but those voters were probably with W. in 2000 and 2004, which would come out of the Huckabee column.

But this is typical Kristol neo-con CYA suck-up at its best. Ed Rollins is running the Huckabee show now and my guess is if you're on the Republican side of the ledger, you don't want to be on his bad side no-way/no-how.

I tend to agree with RKU and Bob Weber.

I believe Huckabee may well end up being the Republican nominee. The right-end punditry viewed Iowa more as a Romney loss (Hooray! Our boy McCain is back in the fight!) than a Huckabee win. The right to spin results to your heart's content is guaranteed in the Constitution (unless Dick Cheney can do something in the next few months), but what Huckabee did was impressive and my guess is he'll win South Carolina. And, if and when Romney fades (starting to look more like when), where does he send his organization? My guess would be to Huckabee. Huckabee may be the flavor-of-the-month, but the compressed selection process barely lasts that long.

Can Huckabee win in November? Sure he could. I do think Bloomberg gets in, but my guess is that he takes more of the Republican suburban base than more traditional segments of the Democratic party. That hurts both candidates, Obama in the sense that the 30-45 Republican crowd that may cross over for him would instead go to Bloomberg, but those voters were probably with W. in 2000 and 2004, which would come out of the Huckabee column.

But this is typical Kristol neo-con CYA suck-up at its best. Ed Rollins is running the Huckabee show now and my guess is if you're on the Republican side of the ledger, you don't want to be on his bad side no-way/no-how.

Hooray! Our boy McCain is back in the fight

It might be worth noting that the "Right Wing punditry" class might hate McCain more than they hate Huckabee. To them, Huckabee is a naive rube whose real sin is ignorance and not knowing his place as likable (but powerless) Court Jester. McCain, however, is an apostate, a traitor. "Treason" is always more loathesome than ignorance.

McCain's present support is, instead, coming from the non-base, non-pundit, non-elite sector of the Republican party, which is still, thankfully, an electoral plurality.

Which isn't to say that the plurality group likes McCain--just that he was the last one standing after a process of elimination (Romney's too full of shit, Huckabee's a religious Democrat, Thompson has no traction, Giuliani's a nutball, Paul's too fringe, Hunter's unknown and won't shut up about Chinese Walmart).

Still, it is possible that Huckabee will end up the Republican nominee due to evangelical influence in the South and vote splitting between the other candidates in more populous states. If that happens, as I've said before, expect a mass exodus. It's rare to find someone who is the worst nightmare of both Neocons and libertarian-types, but Huckabee is certainly that.

Huckabee beliefs, which seems rather clear from the quote from his book, seems to be that of those who deny the reality that someone can be homosexual but only behaving as one. His appearance on Meet the Press is just the latest example of Govenor Huckleberry's remarkable ability to shoot himself in the foot that for some reason is usually found in his mouth. He might just make it through with the Republican nomination appealing to the lunatic fringe on the right (just to show I'm not biased on this I believe there is a lunatic fringe on the left too) but if he does, he's going to scare the wits out of the average voter with his views and make a landslide possible for the Democratic nominee even if it's Hillary.

"Anyone who can play the bass like that is alright with me."

Well, if morons pick Presidents on that sort of basis, then, yes, Huckabee should be the next President.

Should I vote for Hillary because I'd like to fuck her?

Is that how black women are going to vote for Obama?

If a nutcase like Huckabee can win the nomination, then why not Ron Paul?

Why not Alan Keyes?

Are you guys saying that just because Huckabee looks like a "regular guy", that nothing else matters?

Is that how sad the entire country has become?

Then once again, I recommend we run Vladimir Putin and George Galloway for Prez and VP on an independent ticket - or this country is doomed.

Or General Zod:
http://www.zod2008.com/

I certainly think extreme cynicism about what Kristol writes is warranted. If not too many people take him seriously there is no need to comment on him. If nobody listened to him that would be the ideal.

Well now wait a minute. What are the odds that voting for a stupid irrational fundamentalist yokel could turn out to be a mistake twice in a row?

I don't read the NYT for that very reason.


Comments closed January 21, 2008.

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