The End of an Era

John Hollinger thinks the unthinkable:

Over the past 23 games, San Antonio has beaten all the bad teams and lost to all the good ones. In other words, it has been an average team.

This in defense of the proposition that the Spurs might actually miss the playoffs:

Even with all that, it's still hard to imagine a San Antonio team with the likes of Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili missing out on the playoffs entirely. But throw in an ankle sprain to one of those three and put them in a conference where 48 wins might be needed to gain entry to the postseason, and it's a different story. That's why the Playoff Odds say there's a 1-in-4 shot of the unthinkable happening.

A playoffs without the Spurs seems hard to imagine. Even so, this is an even numbered year so anything could happen. The real question is whether the legendary Spurs machine is breaking down in a larger sense, leaving them unable to make the numerologically determined bounceback to win the 2009 NBA Championship.

Photo by Flickr user Compujeramey used under a Creative Commons license

Comments

I think it says at least as much about how good the Western Conference is as it says about the decline of the Spurs. Lots and lots of people have long thought of the Spurs as somehow deficient or soft, which is why no one ever seems to give them the respect that even I admit that they've earned.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | January 29, 2008 5:47 PM

I'm usually opposed to talk of adjusting playoff schemes on the fly or balancing conferences, but this season is truly ridiculous. They need to let 10 Western teams in and only 6 Eastern teams. I don't know how anyone can disagree with this.

Posted by right | January 29, 2008 5:48 PM

The Spurs always fade in December and January before rallying. That said, I have been alarmed by a lack of competitive response during the recent swoon. I thought the second half against the Lakers last week was the kind that could change the momentum of the season, but I was wrong.

The only ankle that could cause them to miss the play-offs is Duncan. No way Duncan plays the rest of the season and they miss the playoffs.

The point guard play has been lousy recently - Parker has a hurt heel and is just not as explosive as he has been in the past. Vaughn is a gritty, gutty, veteran, but not of that changes the fact that he sucks. I like the guy, and he makes one or two unexpected hustle plays, but the rest of the time he is bricking wide open shots and getting burned to the lane.

But the most worrying thing is the defense. Detroit scored on something like 11 or 12 straight possessions a couple of weeks ago, and the Hornets did the same thing the other night, and we are in the bottom half of the league in field goal percentage. There is no other big besides Duncan who plays defense satisfactorily except Horry, and he is shooting some 18% from the field this year.

There are big, big holes on this team. Much bigger than I ever anticipated. Not big enough to cause them to miss the playoffs. But at this point, I would be shocked if they made it to the Western Conference Finals.

Posted by Curtis | January 29, 2008 5:48 PM

Who cares about the Spurs having a 25% chance of missing the playoffs when we've got J-Kidd confirming he wants out of NJ. Couple that with Giuliani's meltdown, and it's not a good time in Al-land.

Posted by Al | January 29, 2008 5:51 PM

Who cares about the Spurs having a 25% chance of missing the playoffs when we've got J-Kidd confirming he wants out of NJ.

I wouldn't sweat it. Given his contract, I don't think he's going to get moved.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | January 29, 2008 5:52 PM

Now you know how it feels to be a Knicks fan...Fire Isaiah!!!!

Posted by Ann | January 29, 2008 5:53 PM

Right now the Spurs are on pace to win 53 games ... and miss the playoffs.

Has there ever in the history of sports been this sort of imbalance before? The MLB in 2006 was unbalanced, but not this unbalanced.

Their point differential suggests they'll beat out Portland in the end. Which I would bet on.

They should really just not let the Knicks, Nets, or Hawks into the playoffs and instead ten teams in from the east.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | January 29, 2008 6:12 PM

The Spurs are one of the oldest teams in the league. Maybe they've hit the tipping point into geezerdom.

Posted by blah | January 29, 2008 6:16 PM

I believe the Spurs are just playing possum. As soon as you stop paying attention, they'll start ramping up their wins and destroy all your hopes and dreams in a flurry of bloody noses, hip checks; and good, physical, WWE-style play. I still believe.

Posted by ben | January 29, 2008 6:31 PM

The Spurs management is excellent, but its a lot easier to win titles with a player like Duncan around. In a max contract league like the NBA (and one where star players have a huge impact), being able to keep a player on the roster for less than his true worth is a tremendous advantage. I'm not sure there's any player in the league who has delivered more value for the dollar over the past ten years than Tim Duncan (keep in mind that Shaq and KG are essentially running on premax contracts). But now Duncan's getting older and his contract isn't getting smaller- things are unlikely to get better for the Spurs from here on out.

Posted by mpowell | January 29, 2008 6:32 PM

In sports, why is it always so amazing when a team that has won a lot starts losing?

Posted by asl | January 29, 2008 6:33 PM

They just can't handle the loss of P.J. Carlesimo.

Posted by stand | January 29, 2008 6:40 PM

The playoff format does seem a bit unfair. Good teams like the Warriors, Jazz, Lakers, and TrailBlazers have a good chance of not making the playoff if they go on a small losing streak. Meanwhile the Eastern suck-fest (while admittedly better than years past) has powerhouses like New Jersey and Atlanta battling for an eight-seed.

Posted by Waingro | January 29, 2008 7:02 PM

I live in San Antonio and I hate sports. I hope they crap out.

Posted by good | January 29, 2008 7:06 PM

I live in San Antonio and I hate sports. I hope they crap out.

Posted by good | January 29, 2008 7:06 PM

And to think, in MY's June 7th "Kerr to Phoenix" post, MY made a rare appearance on his own comments board to crack on my suggestions that (1) the Spurs were going to break down and get old quickly and (2) the Suns would again be an elite team in 07-08.

Hate to say I told him so, but, yeah. Tommy Point for this guy.

Posted by CJH | January 29, 2008 7:09 PM

ummmmmm, you realize everyone thought the spurs were done last year at about this same time? and the spurs were on a tear until a string of injuries to their stars and one of their most key role players (barry)? and that the spurs should be better this year (ime subs for aging bowen, bonner and elson second year in system sub for aging roho, finley continues to hurt them with no decent sub in sight, etc.).

yes, this could be the year the spurs give. but betting against timmy, let alone many and tony, is generally a losing proposition, even in the incredibly competitive west.

Posted by dj superflat | January 29, 2008 7:37 PM

Don't hurt your head. It's the NBA: virtually everyone gets into the playoffs.

Posted by dick tuck | January 29, 2008 7:53 PM

Once upon a time, you could have said the same about betting against Shaq.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | January 29, 2008 7:54 PM

The Spurs are still on pace to make the playoffs. However, if they lose to the Sonics, who have lost 14 straight, tonight, I'm officially worried.

Posted by Luke | January 29, 2008 7:56 PM

If it takes the Spurs to crap out for the Warriors to make it to the playoffs then good. The Spurs road the injury to Robinson and amazing luck to be able to pick Duncan and keep going to the playoffs; then got lucky again last year with Phoenix players leaving the bench.

Posted by Jim | January 29, 2008 8:06 PM

How can you talk about the NBA with the Superbowl looming? Why not just publish your blog in French and be done with it?

Posted by gumpyOldMan | January 29, 2008 8:18 PM

I'm definitely nervous given how badly they've been playing lately, but I'd say that if Tony, Manu, Tim and Brent (sadly, we need him too) are healthy for the playoffs, they'll at least be really competitive in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Posted by jamie | January 29, 2008 8:41 PM

Spurs will lose less than 10 games after the break. They will win 55+ and will get the 3 seed, just like last year. Worst case scenario for the Spurs, they lose another 15 and still win 52 and get the 5 seed. Look at their second half schedule. Even if they lost all eight games to Dallas, Phoenix, N.O. and Boston they would still have to lose another 10 to go under 50 wins. That's a lot of losses to bad teams, and they're still beating the bad teams now when they're playing crappy. Plus they'll crush Phoenix at least once this season without Kurt Thomas. And they'll get revenge on N.O. for the game last week. More likely they go 4-4 out of those 8. Everyone said the exact same thing about the Spurs last year right before the Rodeo trip, and they ended up with the 3 seed and that worked out alright.

Although, they should tank if Utah is the 4th seed instead of N.O. and Phoenix is the 1st seed. Then, if they're smart, they'll try to get the 5th seed and draw the Utah-Phoenix path to the West Finals, rather than face two of Dallas, N.O. and L.A. (who are the only three teams capable of knocking them out in a 7 game series). What happens in the Finals v. the Pistons/Celtics winner is another matter. The odds are not good of a repeat, but I think they still stand as good a chance as any West team to make the Finals.

Posted by MSB | January 29, 2008 8:48 PM

This is ridiculous. The Spurs have had several seasons where they slumped in mid-season. They've also had other campaigns where they start atrociously. More often than not, they finish the season strong. Expect at least two more years of this from San Antonio.

Posted by Vinn | January 29, 2008 10:33 PM

OK, the Sonics beat the Spurs. Now I can panic.

Posted by Luke | January 30, 2008 12:24 AM

yeah, even with tony out, losing to the sonics is not a good sign. so i take back everything i said above, my bad. (all this just to reverse jinx the spurs into getting it together, of course.)

Posted by dj superflat | January 30, 2008 12:42 AM

Popovich's live for today philosophy is catching up with the team. Giving away Beno Udrih and Luis Scola was moronic, but Pop, like a lot of veteran coaches of winning teams, has come to really distrust young players.

This does not have the look of one of those Spurs teams that kicks it into gear on Valentine's Day and loses once every 2 weeks the rest of the season.

Posted by ChuckE | January 30, 2008 1:00 AM

ChuckE,

Scola is 28. Udrih is 25. I guess they're young when compared to rest of the Spurs (average age over 30).

Posted by ben | January 30, 2008 1:52 AM

OK, maybe they can lose 20 games in the second half and miss the playoffs. Losing to a team on 14 game skid and without a real post player is just unthinkable. Even without Tony. To me, this is a Bruce issue. Where did Bruce's shot go, and how in the world is Durant dropping 26 on the Spurs after poor-shooting 17 and 19 point nights against the Hawks and Kings?

Posted by MSB | January 30, 2008 6:19 PM