According to CNN's exil poll, over a quarter of voters in the GOP primary were Mormons. And boy-oh-boy do they love their man Mitt Romney -- he got an overwhelming 94 percent of the Mormon vote.
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The Mormon Factor
19 Jan 2008 04:18 pm
Comments (34)
Even if he got 0 Mormon votes he'd still win this caucus by 2-1.
In the general election this could be very powerful for him in driving turnout in the Southwest.
14% were non-Catholic, non-Protestant, non-Mormon Christians? Is this mostly just Protestants who don't call themselves Protestants, or lots and lots of Greek Orthodox?
"The constitution will hang by a thread, and it will be saved by the Elders of Israel." -Mormon prophesy
Well, the Constitution is hanging by a thread but Slick Willard belongs to the party that wants to wield the scissors.
My understanding is he beat Huckabee among evangelicals as well.
NPR just had an SC voter on saying, basically, "I'm retired military and I voted for McCain because I think he's most likely to get us out of Iraq." Just shoot me now.
I still want to know why Josh Marshall and others are so sure Romney'll be a pushover in November.
Well, isn't America's Mormon population growing almost exponentially? That's what happens when you tend to have really large families, and also a very strong conversion effort.
Even if Mitt misses this time, probably his grandson would be a shoe-in...
John- I think "Other Christian" is "Oh crap, I don't know, church, I hate tests, uhhh ... JESUS!"
"The constitution will hang by a thread, and it will be saved by the Elders of Israel." -Mormon prophesy Posted by Brian | January 19, 2008 5:00 PM
interesting! certainly conspiracy theory fodder, but very interesting nonetheless.
I still want to know why Josh Marshall and others are so sure Romney'll be a pushover in November. aleks | January 19, 2008 5:28 PM
I agree. He needs to listen to a couple days of the mainstream conservative radio talk show hosts. There is a huge drumbeat to sell Mitt as the soul of reason and the rest of them as all kooks. It's more likely anyone of the others will be the pushover for that reason, having been thoroughly and constantly bashed by the great right wing media machine already, their message entering swing voters' minds during many drive times.
Romney has beaten Huckabee among Evangelicals in three out of five states. He virtually tied with him in New Hampshire, and came in second to him in Iowa.
Is there really a Mormon question?
Re: Well, isn't America's Mormon population growing almost exponentially
No. Growing, yes, but not "exponentially". The LDS membership figures (in common with many churches) fail to count people who drop out. My younger step-sister was baptized a Mormon at 14. She speedily recoverd from that brief adventure and has not wanted anything to do with the LDS in years, but they continue to send her literature and apparently consider her a member still since baptism is irrevocable.
Romney has meticulously adopted the rightmost position on every issue, and, moreover, has taken those positions most cynically. Policy nuance/clarification/evolution is fine by itself, and having passionate if extreme beliefs isn't necessarily fatal either. But Romney is an insincere extremist, which is bound to play badly in the general.
Plus, while lots of people respect and admire Romney (especially before his deeply cynical primary campaign), he isn't especially likeable. No one wants to have a beer with him, because he reminds people of their boss or their company's president. He's definitely easier to beat than McCain. It isn't as obvious that Huckabee would be a better candidate than Romney, but Huck would seem to have a lot more upside than Mitt does, especially if/when Huck is able to give voice to a nascent, realigning neo-populist movement.
JonF:
Remember, I said "almost exponential", without specifying the particular factor, which can account for some "drop-off" effect.
Frankly, I'm no expert on Mormons, but I did know that there are an awful lot more of them today than there used to be.
But now by the miracle of Google I have discovered that academic sociologists do indeed characterize the Mormon growth rate as explicitly "exponential." It turns out that the number of Mormons grew at 40% per decade for 100 years straight, and afterwards began to sharply accelerate!
Here's the academic paper:
http://www.lds4u.com/growth2/Index.htm
I wonder when America will elect its *last* non-Mormon president...
An important point: the numbers show 94% of the Nevandan Mormons *who voted in the Republican primary* voted for Mitt. That doesn't mean 94% of Mormons would vote for Mitt. As an active Mormon who would vote for any of the three Democratic contenders over any Republican running, including Mitt, the vote totals for Mitt among all Mormons woud be lower.
Probably around 80% (he says with a sigh).
aleks & artappraiser:
Do you ever look at general election match up polls? Romney is the one guy that polls the worst amongst Republicans. Not only that, but the TradMed can't stand Romney. They hate him like they hate Edwards(for different reasons of course). Since I have to assume that you two are Dems, would you want "Saint" McCain as the Repub nominee knowing how the TradMed fluffs him to no end?
I still want to know why Josh Marshall and others are so sure Romney'll be a pushover in November. aleks | January 19, 2008 5:28 PM
Bingo. I'm waiting for that moment in a debate against, let's say, Hillary Clinton, where he says "Well, you had your chance to get universal health care, and you failed because you proposed a socialist plan the nation hated. When I had my chance, I got it done. That's the bottom line--other people make promises, I get it done."
"The constitution will hang by a thread, and it will be saved by the Elders of Israel." -Mormon prophesy Posted by Brian | January 19, 2008 5:00 PM"
The so-called "White Horse Prophesy" was attributed to Joseph Smith by a couple second-hand sources and it is questionable whether he even made it. The present-day LDS Church does not accept the supposed prophesy as either doctrinal or authoritative. If you want (for some odd reason) to read more about it, here you go:
http://www.fairlds.org/pubs/whitehorse.pdf
Does Utah have oil?
We need to bomb them. :-)
According to the chart and info on this site:
http://www.allaboutmormons.com/growth_size_mormon_church.php
they expect to have 265 million members all over the world by the year 2080.
Of course, by the year 2080, Transhumans will wax their asses, so that's irrelevant.
However, this site:
http://www.exmormon.org/mormon/mormon411.htm
disputes this vigorously, by pointing out the following:
"This is from a Salt Lake Tribune article Sep. 1st, 2005 quoting Merrill Bateman, a Mormon Seventy
“…He agreed the LDS Church's worldwide membership, reported at 12 million, includes many who no longer consider themselves Mormon, but he disagreed with researchers who estimated active Mormons equal only 4 million.
Bateman said that number doesn't count those in undeveloped countries who find it difficult to attend sacrament meetings. ‘So you might have in the neighborhood of . . . 4 [million] and 5 million members attending church at any given time, but those who are active would be more than that.’ " end quote
That number of individuals who are unable to attend meetings is by no means 7-8 million people. There are not that many members in undeveloped countries. (5+7=12 million) This is finally an official acknowledgment that the Mormon church is, and has been, dishonest in claiming 12 million members."
"In the United States, Mormons are departing from the faith as fast as fast as converts are joining. Converts rarely remain active in the Mormon Church."
"Excerpt: .The claim that Mormonism is the fastest-growing faith in the world has been repeated so routinely by sociologists, anthropologists, journalists and proud Latter-day Saints as to be perceived as unassailable fact. The trouble is, it isn't true…
But since 1990, other faiths - Seventh-day Adventists, Assemblies of God and Pentecostal groups - have grown much faster and in more places around the globe…
…the Seventh-day Adventist Church reports it has added more than 900,000 adult converts each year since 2000 [compared to the Mormon Church’s conversion of only 241,239 in 2004] (an average growth of about 5 percent), bringing the total membership to 14.3 million. The Assemblies of God now claims more than 50 million members worldwide, adding 10,000 new members every day.’"
Bottom line: apparently, like most religions, the Mormons have no problem lying like rugs about both their membership size, their rate of growth, and the value of their product.
Apparently Mormons have the intellectual integrity of Zionists, i.e., none.
The LDS (Mormon) website recently posted an article on the rational for how the membership is counted. They've never tried to hide the fact that the numbers includes those who were baptized as members and now don't attend. There are no rules on how churches are supposed to count their members, and surely many religions count people who don't attend church in their numbers also. The article makes sense to me, but then again, I'm a Mormon, so I must be lying:
By the way, the prediction that the Mormons will number 265 million by 2080 is made by researchers not sanctioned by the LDS church. As far as I know, the LDS Church has never made such predictions.
Re: Comment #1: Democrats haven't been competitive in Utah for a while now, largely because Mormons tend to be conservative. Of course, if Mitt were the nominee that would be even more so, but Utah is about as far from a swing state as you can get.
"Well, I guess that means Democrats can't compete in Utah in November."
On the contrary, if Mitt Romney does not get the nomination I think Democrats have a better chance of winning Utah in Novemeber than they have had in 60 years. Mormons in Utah have so many hard feelings about Huckabee (Vote for me, I'm a real Christian) and McCain (push polling in New Hamshire calling Mitt Romney a cultist and his mom making anti-Mormon comments) that if either of them get the nomination many Utah Republicans will either just stay home or vote for a Democrat. Don't think that a Mormon wouldn't vote for a socialist-abortionist over an anti-Mormon.
"Well, I guess that means Democrats can't compete in Utah in November."
On the contrary, if Mitt Romney does not get the nomination I think Democrats have a better chance of winning Utah in Novemeber than they have had in 60 years. Mormons in Utah have so many hard feelings about Huckabee (Vote for me, I'm a real Christian) and McCain (push polling in New Hamshire calling Mitt Romney a cultist and his mom making anti-Mormon comments) that if either of them get the nomination many Utah Republicans will either just stay home or vote for a Democrat. Don't think that a Mormon wouldn't vote for a socialist-abortionist over an anti-Mormon.
A Mormon baptism is not irrevocable. All you need to do is send a letter to your bishop requesting that your name be removed. That's it. The bishop will probably talk to you to make sure that is what you really want.
Richard Steven Hack:
Did you check the link for your quote; "In the United States, Mormons are departing from the faith as fast as fast as converts are joining. Converts rarely remain active in the Mormon Church." I did - here it is:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050728/ts_alt_afp/usreligionmormon_050728204333
Hard to take as evidence information from a web site whose sole goal is to discredit Mormons.
"Apparently Mormons have the intellectual integrity of Zionists, i.e., none."
A quick fact check could have given you a little bit more intellectual integrity that you say the Mormons are lacking.
As the results show, Mormons are also much more likely to turn out to vote. With only 7.5% of Nevada's population, they were 25% of the GOP caucus. Looks like they were almost twice as likely as anyone else in the GOP to vote. Pretty large number. Add 10% to Romney's totals in NH, Iowa, and South Carolina, where Mormons are a negligible percentage of the population, and he's looking pretty good in California, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, and Colorado, Hawaii, Alaska, and Utah (of course), where they aren't.
If it is about delegates, and it is, Mr. "silver medalist" is looking good, provided Giuliani doesn't pull off a convincing win in Florida. (If he does, look at that graph below one more time.)
Re: Frankly, I'm no expert on Mormons, but I did know that there are an awful lot more of them today than there used to be.
Well, yes. But then there's a lot more people than there were a generation ago too. So even a religion that is just holding its own would be growing. But I'm very skeptical about the membership figures for the LDS, or any church (including my own). They do not take account of people who either drop out altogether or who are only nominal members, showing up just for holidays or major life events. And I'm not so sure they even take account of people who move, with the result that they may be counted as members at multiple churches. I am considered a (non-active) member at three other Orthodox churches besides my current one. If those churches report on all members not just active ones then I am counted four times in the Orthodox membership.
"Probably around 80% (he says with a sigh)."
Cheer up. Technically the number is probably about 40%, since even with the high Mormon turnout, I'm sure no more than half of the Mormons voted. So, technically we could say, "about 40% of Mormons in Nevada voted for Romney." It doesn't sound so skewed when you say it that way. :) I'm joking of course.
And I'm not so sure they even take account of people who move, with the result that they may be counted as members at multiple churches.
Actually, the LDS church has a pretty integrated system of record keeping. When someone moves their records are transferred with them. It would be very unlikely for someone to be on the records in more than one place. If someone moves and the church doesn't know where they are (probably because they weren't active), the records are sent to Salt Lake where they sit indefinitely (or until they turn up somewhere). So I don't think counting the same people twice is a significant factor.
People seem to be jumping on the bandwagon of claiming the LDS church is being deceptive. The church put out a press release (see link above) explaining all of this. If they are trying to be deceptive, they aren't doing a very good job of it.
The Church of Jesus Christ (LDS) is often accused by Evangelical pastors of not believing in Christ and, therefore, not being a Christian religion. This article http://mormonsarechristian.blogspot.com/ helps to clarify such misconceptions by examining early Christianity's comprehension of baptism, the Godhead, the deity of Jesus Christ and His Atonement.
The Church of Jesus Christ (LDS) adheres more closely to First Century Christianity and the New Testament than any other denomination. For example, Harper’s Bible Dictionary entry on the Trinity says “the formal doctrine of the Trinity as it was defined by the great church councils of the fourth and fifth centuries is not to be found in the New Testament.”
One Baptist blogger stated “99 percent of the members of his Baptist church believe in the Mormon (and Early Christian) view of the Trinity. It is the preachers who insist on the Nicene Creed definition.” It seems to me the reason the pastors denigrate the Church of Jesus Christ (LDS) is to protect their flock (and their livelihood).
Mormons are not christians and are far from it. First Commandment says there is only one God. Mormons think that they will one day become a god. You can't be christian and break the first commandment.
Which commandments are Christians allowed to break and still be called "Christians"?
P.S. The 1st commandment actually says, "Thou shalt have no other gods before me."
Exodus 20:3
Less than 10 percent of Nevada's population are Mormons and that includes children too young to vote. CNN needs to stop making this a religious issue and give us meaningful polls. They have been wrong on every prediction and they are spinning the elections. The only ones bringing religion into the race are CNN and Huckabee. The rest of us are trying to elect a president.
A big difference between Huckabee and Romney is that Huckabee is actively making religion a reason to vote for him and is explicitly going after the evangelical vote by speaking to them in their mega churches on Sundays, meeting with their pastors to solicit their support and that they in turn are to talk to their members about supporting him. Romney on the other hand is making common values (not religion) a reason to vote for him. He seeks support from all those who share those values regardless of religion. Romney also does not speak at Mormon Churches, nor would the Mormon Church allow him to do so, even to deliver a "non-political sermon". Romney also does not take pot shots at Huckabee's theology in an attempt to stir up religious bigotry as a reason to vote against someone.
Right, a little twist of context and your all of a sudden allowed to have more than one god in christianity.
If your fundamental belief system is in direct conflict with being christian, it's a little different than taking the lord's name in vain.
Christians don't believe that Jesus and Satan are brothers, Jesus was married, Adam and God were the same person, the list goes on.
RE: duhrrrrrrr's comment, "Christians don't believe that Jesus and Satan are brothers, Jesus was married, Adam and God were the same person, the list goes on."
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We LDS believe that the Creator of all things created Jesus and Satan, making them and us joint offspring, hence brothers and sisters.
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Here's the Church's statement:
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"Like other Christians, we believe Jesus is the divine Son of God. Satan is a fallen angel.
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"As the Apostle Paul wrote, God is the Father of all. That means that all beings were created by God and are His spirit children. Christ, however, was the only begotten in the flesh, and we worship Him as the Son of God and the Savior of mankind."
-- Link: http://newsroom.lds.org/ldsnewsroom/eng/commentary/answering-media-questions-about-jesus-and-satan
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The Church has not doctrine that says Jesus was married. There are, however, LDS and other Christians who entertain personal speculation about it.
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The Church consistently has taught as authoritative doctrine that the old Adam-God theory is not true.
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Are LDS Christian? I offer these excerpts from The Book of Mormon in answer:
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Ether 3: 14 Behold, I am he who was prepared from the foundation of the world to redeem my people. Behold, I am Jesus Christ. I am the Father and the Son. In me shall all mankind have life, and that eternally, even they who shall believe on my name; and they shall become my sons and my daughters.
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3 Nephi 9:15 Behold, I am Jesus Christ the Son of God. I created the heavens and the earth, and all things that in them are. I was with the Father from the beginning. I am in the Father, and the Father in me; and in me hath the Father glorified his name.
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Moroni 7: 38 For no man can be saved, according to the words of Christ, save they shall have faith in his name
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Alma 38:9 […] there is no other way or means whereby man can be saved, only in and through Christ.
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2 Nephi 25:26 And we talk of Christ, we rejoice in Christ, we preach of Christ, we prophesy of Christ, and we write according to our prophecies, that our children may know to what source they may look for a remission of their sins.
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Helaman 5: 9 […] remember that there is no other way nor means whereby man can be saved, only through the atoning blood of Jesus Christ,
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Omni 1: 26 […] come unto Christ, who is the Holy One of Israel, and partake of his salvation, and the power of his redemption.
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Mosiah 3:17 […] there shall be no other name given nor any other way nor means whereby salvation can come unto the children of men, only in and through the name of Christ, the Lord Omnipotent.
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Alma 34: 8 […] I do know that Christ shall come among the children of men, to take upon him the transgressions of his people, and that he shall atone for the sins of the world; for the Lord God hath spoken it.
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Mosiah 5: 8 […] There is no other name given whereby salvation cometh; therefore, I would that ye should take upon you the name of Christ,
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Jacob 4: 11 […] be reconciled unto him through the atonement of Christ, his Only Begotten Son, and ye may obtain a resurrection, according to the power of the resurrection which is in Christ, and be presented as the first-fruits of Christ unto God,
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Alma 5: 48 […] I know that Jesus Christ shall come, yea, the Son, the Only Begotten of the Father, full of grace, and mercy, and truth. And behold, it is he that cometh to take away the sins of the world, yea, the sins of every man who steadfastly believeth on his name.
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Jacob 1: 7 Wherefore we labored diligently among our people, that we might persuade them to come unto Christ, and partake of the goodness of God, that they might enter into his rest,
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Alma 39: 15 […] concerning the coming of Christ. Behold, I say unto you, that it is he that surely shall come to take away the sins of the world;
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Mosiah 15: 23 They are raised to dwell with God who has redeemed them; thus they have eternal life through Christ, who has broken the bands of death.
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Helaman 3: 28 Yea, thus we see that the gate of heaven is open unto all, even to those who will believe on the name of Jesus Christ, who is the Son of God.
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Mosiah 4: 2 […] O have mercy, and apply the atoning blood of Christ that we may receive forgiveness of our sins, and our hearts may be purified; for we believe in Jesus Christ, the Son of God, who created heaven and earth, and all things; who shall come down among the children of men.
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Alma 4: 14 […] thus retaining a remission of their sins; being filled with great joy because of the resurrection of the dead, according to the will and power and deliverance of Jesus Christ from the bands of death.
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Alma 22:13 […] the plan of redemption, which was prepared from the foundation of the world, through Christ, for all whosoever would believe on his name.
14 And since man had fallen he could not merit anything of himself; but the sufferings and death of Christ atone for their sins,
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Alma 7:
9 But behold, the Spirit hath said this much unto me, saying: Cry unto this people, saying—Repent ye, and prepare the way of the Lord, and walk in his paths, which are straight; for behold, the kingdom of heaven is at hand, and the Son of God cometh upon the face of the earth.
10 And behold, he shall be born of Mary, at Jerusalem [citing the nearest major city, Bethlehem is 6 miles away] which is the land of our forefathers, she being a virgin, a precious and chosen vessel, who shall be overshadowed and conceive by the power of the Holy Ghost, and bring forth a son, yea, even the Son of God.
11 And he shall go forth, suffering pains and afflictions and temptations of every kind; and this that the word might be fulfilled which saith he will take upon him the pains and the sicknesses of his people.
12 And he will take upon him death, that he may loose the bands of death which bind his people; and he will take upon him their infirmities, that his bowels may be filled with mercy, according to the flesh, that he may know according to the flesh how to succor his people according to their infirmities.
13 Now the Spirit knoweth all things; nevertheless the Son of God suffereth according to the flesh that he might take upon him the sins of his people, that he might blot out their transgressions according to the power of his deliverance; and now behold, this is the testimony which is in me.
Comments closed February 02, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
Well, I guess that means Democrats can't compete in Utah in November.
Posted by Zephyrus | January 19, 2008 4:22 PM