The Un-Decisiveness of Florida

There's a growing conventional wisdom that tonight's Florida matchup between John McCain and Mitt Romney will be decisive. That may be true, but it's worth noting how silly it is. Assuming the jumble of polls pictured above is somewhat accurate, the final tally between McCain and Romney will be very close. Meanwhile, a non-trivial number of people are going to vote for Mike Huckabee or Rudy Giuliani. And the "winner" of Florida is going to secure a plurality that falls far short of a majority. If it winds up going 31/30/15/13 McCain/Romney/Huckabee/Rudy as InsiderAdvantage has it, there seems to me to be every reason for Mitt to soldier on. Similarly, if ARG's right and it comes down 32/34/12/11 there's every reason for McCain to keep running strong.

Comments

I don't think there's any reason to think that either one will actually drop out after losing what should be a very close race tonight. I think the contention is that, particularly if McCain wins, he'll have enough momentum going into next week to prevent Romney from making the necessary gains in the February 5 states to win very many. And that, given the winner-take-all-ness of most of the GOP primaries, losing most of the February 5 primaries will virtually make it impossible for Romney to win.

On the other hand, I don't think Romney winning would be decisive at all - I think he'd have the advantage going forward, but McCain could still pull it out.

Posted by John | January 29, 2008 2:01 PM

What makes Florida different than the other primaries/caucuses is that it is winner take all for delegates.

Posted by Dan the Man | January 29, 2008 2:02 PM

Is Florida winner take all for the republicans, or not?

Posted by example | January 29, 2008 2:06 PM

Is Florida winner take all for the republicans, or not?

Posted by example | January 29, 2008 2:06 PM

Matt: Noah Millman had a long comment yesterday on Ross's blog detailing Romney's diminishing chances. It looks to me like he's finished, unless he manages to win Florida -- and probably not even then. The math for Romney is grim, given his difficulties in the deep south: http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/down_to_the_wire.php#comment-1207056

Posted by Jasper | January 29, 2008 2:11 PM

You're missing the point.

McCain is set for a big win on Super Tuesday (see polls in states there). Today is the last chance to trip McCain before he gets a chance to sweep CA, NY, CT, NJ, IL, AZ, etc...

Posted by Chris | January 29, 2008 2:14 PM

Is Florida winner take all for the republicans, or not?

Yes Florida is a winner-take-all primary. However, because Florida moved up its primary date without the approval of the RNC, the party stripped the state of half its delegates, so there are only 57 delegates up for grabs.

Posted by "Fair and Balanced" Dave | January 29, 2008 2:19 PM

Well, hm. I wonder if the votes will be SO close that a recount will be needed in Florida. Will there be cries of election fraud?

I'm buyin' popcorn.

Posted by Susan Kitchens | January 29, 2008 2:24 PM

Today is the last chance to trip McCain before he gets a chance to sweep CA, NY, CT, NJ, IL, AZ, etc...

I believe that the Republican Party gives less delegates to states which went "blue" in the last Presidential election so winning big in blue states - like 5 of the 6 you listed - doesn't help as much as you might think.

Posted by Dan the Man | January 29, 2008 2:51 PM

Um... last I checked, the correct usage of the word is "indecisiveness."

Posted by mac | January 29, 2008 2:57 PM

McCain is a 60% favorite to win in Florida.

The polls don't really mean much.

The Intrade market is a far better indicator.

Posted by neil wilson | January 29, 2008 3:53 PM

McCain is a 60% favorite to win in Florida.

The polls don't really mean much.

The Intrade market is a far better indicator.

Posted by neil wilson | January 29, 2008 3:54 PM

The Intrade market is a far better indicator.

Hasn't this been debunked already?

Posted by mpowell | January 29, 2008 4:22 PM

Whoever wins Florida should have the momentum for Super Tuesday. But, between the endorsement game (both people and papers), McCain would seem to have the edge. However, if voters think for themselves at all, rather than follow the herd's apparent direction, they will vote for Romney.

McCain as president would be pretty much the same as McCain as a senator. Much turmoil and turnover. And that would add to the grat amount of inertia Washington already has. Little of substance would get changed or moved in a positive direction under McCain.

He doesn't understand the economy. He doesn't understand the real world. He's been a government employee his whole life. Though many good and noble people work for the government (my dad did for about half of his working life), it insulates you from the survival mode every business has to go through. Government gets the money first (taxes). Business never has that guarantee.

Romney is far better prepared to lead this nation out of economic malaise. And our moral malaise is something else he is more likely to help with than someone who dumped his first wife, when he came back from the Hanoi Hilton, because she had been in an auto accident.

Ross Perot a week or two ago told about how opportunistic McCain is. If you think Hillary is driven to get into the White House at any cost, her "friend", John McCain, is equally motivated, and has the advantage of military experience, in which one learns the arts of sabotage. That's what McCain has been doing during his campaign to Romney.

Posted by diligentdave | January 29, 2008 5:06 PM

Whoever wins Florida should have the momentum for Super Tuesday. But, between the endorsement game (both people and papers), McCain would seem to have the edge. However, if voters think for themselves at all, rather than follow the herd's apparent direction, they will vote for Romney.

McCain as president would be pretty much the same as McCain as a senator. Much turmoil and turnover. And that would add to the grat amount of inertia Washington already has. Little of substance would get changed or moved in a positive direction under McCain.

He doesn't understand the economy. He doesn't understand the real world. He's been a government employee his whole life. Though many good and noble people work for the government (my dad did for about half of his working life), it insulates you from the survival mode every business has to go through. Government gets the money first (taxes). Business never has that guarantee.

Romney is far better prepared to lead this nation out of economic malaise. And our moral malaise is something else he is more likely to help with than someone who dumped his first wife, when he came back from the Hanoi Hilton, because she had been in an auto accident.

Ross Perot a week or two ago told about how opportunistic McCain is. If you think Hillary is driven to get into the White House at any cost, her "friend", John McCain, is equally motivated, and has the advantage of military experience, in which one learns the arts of sabotage. That's what McCain has been doing during his campaign to Romney.

Posted by diligentdave | January 29, 2008 5:07 PM

It will be decisive to the media if McCain wins, it will be a draw and "The Battle moves on the Feb. 5th" if Romney wins. McCain has no money, and Feb. 5th is a money game and a "what the media says" game so there's is absolutely nothing decisive about FL.

Posted by Fred F. | January 29, 2008 8:13 PM

I, for one, am hoping for a brokered convention. That hasn't happened in fifty years. It's about time the party was shaken up a little. This pseudo-conservatism is getting old as well. I support the true conservative: Ron Paul. Being conservative doesn't simply mean being a rich guy, war-monger, or theocrat. It means being in favor of conserving the Constitution. The Constitution is the law. The government is not above the law. I am disappointed to see Ron Paul lose Florida, but not surprised. There are other states. The Constitution will not go down without a fight. We the People are voting for Ron Paul.

Ron Paul 2008
Restore the Republic.

Posted by Will Harris | January 29, 2008 8:24 PM

Well, I voted for Ron in the Michigan primary, but if I've learned anything from watching the behavior of the GOP establishment and it's media outlets such as National Review, it's that there's no room in the GOP for libertarians anymore, if there ever was. Paul is simply being airbrushed out of the coverage, and if that means his supporters walk out of the party, they're ok with that.

Guess it's back to the third party ghetto for me. I suppose it will at least help that acid reflux problem I've been having on election days.

Posted by Brett Bellmore | January 29, 2008 9:07 PM

"That may be true, but it's worth noting how silly it is. "

How can something be silly and true?

Posted by jane | January 29, 2008 11:38 PM