I hereby endorse Scott Lemieux's not-really-endorsement (as well I should, since it quotes me).
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Voting Imminent
03 Jan 2008 06:27 pm
Comments (20)
No idea when they'll come in, but my guy is that the earliest possible moment for entrance polls would be 7:45.
When I'm President, I'm going to double the size of Iowa.
Then I'm gonna put a fence around it to keep the illegals out.
Why is Richardson trying to help Obama? Possibilities:
1) He's working independently of Team Clinton. (I don't believe this for a second.)
2) Team Clinton finally figured out that Edwards is a more dangerous long-term rival than Edwards. (This would require me to believe Mark Penn grew a brain, which is difficult.)
3) Obama really is winning, and Team Clinton is trying to catch Edwards to avoid a disastrous third place finish. They figure Richardson's anti-war people won't go to Clinton, so they're just trying to keep them away from Edwards. (Complicated.)
Or maybe something else.
Auto-refresh on Halperin and Ambinder. Thank god there's finally a way to avoid Drudge.
One thing about Lemiuex's post. He writes:
In the abstract, I would marginally prefer Edwards ... On the other hand, Obama seems to have a better chance to win the nomination
Who knows what's about to happen in Corn Land, but if Edwards outperforms, there's an enormous amount of latent support out there for him once he demonstrates he's viable.
The latent support is out there not just from the blogosphere and lefty opinion-makers, but also from unions. For example, I imagine the all-powerful Culinary union in NV would hop on the Edwards bandwagon in a minute if he can show strength in Corn Land.
Why is Richardson trying to help Obama? Possibilities:
4) He isn't.
There are reports, but there are also denials. All you need is a few probama Richardson staffers to create a story.
Team Clinton finally figured out that Edwards is a more dangerous long-term rival than Edwards.
Dude, type slower.
And is auto-refresh on Halperin really a good way to avoid Drudge?
...aw, I shouldn't bait you at a stressful time. Go Edwards! (I mean it.)
"Dude, type slower."
Team Clinton finally figured out that Edwards is a more dangerous long-term rival than Obama.
Being a blog commenter means never having to say you're sorry for not proofreading.
"And is auto-refresh on Halperin really a good way to avoid Drudge?"
Petey hearts Halperin, Ambinder, and Ben Smith.
C-SPAN is televising a democratic caucus. It's decent for political nerdery until there are actual results--plus it doesn't require you to try to filter the nefarious motives of Drudge, Halperin, or the auto-refresh function.
Big turnout at the caucus they're showing, btw . . . favors Obama, perhaps?
Personally, if I was that geeked about this, I'd go out about now and have a nice meal or a few drinks at a bar with no TV, and come back home around midnight to find results like Christmas presents.
"Big turnout at the caucus they're showing, btw . . . favors Obama, perhaps?"
Entrance poll shows Obama/Clinton race with Edwards behind. No idea of close behind or far behind.
The only Edwards hope is that they're undersampling rural Iowa, and that Edwards sweeps up rural Iowa. Or that Edwards sweeps up second choicers despite all the deals to send them to Obama.
I've mostly liquidated my Intrade Edwards position, at the risk of being made a fool by a bad entrance poll.
Edwards is leading the early returns, which I think come from the rural West of the state.
Don't quit on me, Petey!
Olbermann just said that the latest analysis, combining the early results with the entrance poll, has Obama winning and Edwards/Clinton fighting for second. That suggests that the results are better for Edwards so far than predicted...
"Don't quit on me, Petey!"
My heart is different than my Intrade actions.
"Olbermann just said that the latest analysis, combining the early results with the entrance poll, has Obama winning and Edwards/Clinton fighting for second. That suggests that the results are better for Edwards so far than predicted..."
It's not over. Prior to all the purported deals to funnel second choicers to Obama, I thought Edwards could lose the entrance poll by 10 points and still win, due to the rural factors and second choice factors. We'll see how it plays out.
It's not over, but I prefer good news to bad.
Unless I misunderstand where the late precincts are, Obama's gonna take this, but second does look tight.
Comments closed January 17, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
I picked a bad fucking week to stop sniffing glue.
Posted by Petey | January 3, 2008 7:05 PM