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Ways of Winning

06 Jan 2008 04:01 pm

Kevin Drum pronounces himself bitter:

Am I feeling bitter? You bet. Not because Hillary Clinton seems more likely than not to lose — I can live with that pretty easily — but because of how she's likely to lose. Because the press doesn't like her. Because any time a woman raises her voice half a decibel she instantly becomes shrill. Because we insist on an idiotic nominating system that gives a bunch of Iowa corn farmers 20x the influence of any Democratic voter in any urban area in the country. Because the fever swamp, in the end, is getting the last laugh.

As Troy Aikman just said to Joe Buck about an unrelated issue, "I agree with that to a point." But consider the alternative -- had Hillary Clinton won because she'd been able to coerce the support of a large number of elected officials, union leaders, donors, and other elites on the basis of the idea that she was inevitable and retribution would be dealt out to those who failed to support her and because we insist on an idiotic nominating system that gives wildly disproportionate influence to lily-white Iowa that would have sucked, too. We have a screwed-up political process in this country, and political outcomes naturally reflect that fact.

I agree that Clinton gets a bad rap from many in the press, but at the end of the day there are limits to my sympathy for the ill-treatment she and her husband have received over the years. Or, rather, there aren't limits to the sympathy, but there are limits to what the sympathy can buy you. Resentment at the inanity of the media isn't a good reason to make one particular person President. If she loses, Hillary Clinton will still be a multimillionaire US Senator, so there are people out there who I'll feel sorrier for. Meanwhile, it's not as if Clinton had some visionary plan to fix these problems; it's Obama with the ambitious media reform program, and Clinton who's benefitting from Murdoch-hosted fundraisers.

On top of all that: Getting good press is part of being an effective candidate and part of being an effective president. Will Obama continue to get this kind of worshipful coverage in the general election campaign? Probably not, especially if he has to run against Saint John of Arizona. But will he get better coverage than Clinton or Edwards would? Almost certainly. And I don't think it makes sense to let resentment be the governing consideration here.

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Comments (94)

"will (Obama) get better coverage than ... Edwards would"

Probably. But what's the tradeoff? If we nominated John McCain or Evan Bayh, we'd get great coverage.

With Edwards, we'll get more hostile coverage than with Obama, and we'll win the election by a larger amount in a better geographical pattern.

What, precisely, is the issue here?

We'd rather have the press like us than win elections?

I agree that Clinton gets a bad rap from many in the press, but at the end of the day there are limits to my sympathy for the ill-treatment she and her husband have received over the years.

In part, I would hope, because they had their shot, and there were limits to what they were able to accomplish. This is basically the point Obama made in the debate last night.

This won't get us great coverage from General Electric and their sponsors, but we could win elections on it.

Wow Petey, still sipping the Edwards cool-aid huh? Good luck with all that.

We should find ourselves a candidate General Electric really likes. That's what the Democratic Party should be about.

Reagan was a self-confessed Democrat and New Dealer when he arrived at GE. After his eight-year "postgraduate course in political science," conducted largely under the aegis of GE's vice president and labor strategist, Lemuel Boulware, Ronald Reagan came to expound on the need to reduce taxes and limit government. He described international communism, as Boulware and GE president Ralph Cordiner did, as "evil." He observed Boulware, who was regarded by many in corporate America as the most successful labor negotiator of all time, and Reagan himself became a knowledgeable negotiator during this period, equally at ease with corporate executives and blue-collar workers. His education stretched well beyond the bargaining table. He became familiar with such diverse thinkers as von Mises, Lenin, Hayek, and the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu. He read and reread the practical economics of Henry Hazlitt. He quoted Jefferson, Madison, and Hamilton.


Lemuel Boulware believed that it was not enough to win over company employees on narrow labor issues. They must not only accept the offer but pass on GE's essentially conservative message to others, helping the company to win voters at the grass roots who would elect officials and pass legislation establishing a better business climate. In short, they would become "communicators" and "mass communicators," (Boulware's words) as they went through the company's extensive education program. In time, the program would also help to produce a "great communicator."

Am I the only one who is sick of the Clintons blaming the media for their own political failings?

Press management is a part of politics, and everyone deals with it. They want to exist in this happy state of bliss where the press reprints every attack they make on their opponents without qualification, and where their own gaffes are willfully ignored. Nobody in politics gets that kind of treatment. Why should they?

I'm happy to vote for any of the Dem candidates-- but I've always been uncomfortable with the prospect of a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton sequence. A new face and a new name is just better. I agree that the process of getting to this point was ugly, but I'm not a vegetarian, either politically or culinarily.

How much time was dedicated to the Iraq War last night?

Who's advantage does that work to?

Isn't that odd, given that the last four or five years have largely revolved around the war.

The more time they spend on Iraq, the more it becomes clear that the real change will be from poor judgment to good judgment.

www.barackobama.com/pdf/warspeech.pdf

"Wow Petey, still sipping the Edwards cool-aid huh?"

It's not about Edwards. You ought to click-thru to see what it's actually about, Jake.

"I'm happy to vote for any of the Dem candidates-- but I've always been uncomfortable with the prospect of a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton sequence. A new face and a new name is just better. I agree that the process of getting to this point was ugly, but I'm not a vegetarian, either politically or culinarily."

No doubt. Senator Clinton needs to be politically slaughtered with extreme malice. I think we all agree about that.

I feel sorry for the late, great Tatiana the Tiger. What kind of press did SHE get? She was beautiful, by all accounts mellow, and taunted mercilessly? What's the bigger loss- Tatiana's unseemly death or Hillary not getting a chance to triangulate pressing moral issues and premptively drop bombs on thousands of innocent people? As her husband has said: "It's not even close."

Petey, I think you meant to link to this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HY6BZgkI0kI

I think it's really starting to sink in that Sen. Clinton could lose this thing. What happened to the Clinton machine?

Sen. Obama is gaining in the NH polls and, by most accounts, did better than Clinton in the debate.

Some more thoughts...

http://thepoliticalpost.wordpress.com/2008/01/05/is-the-clinton-machine-running-on-all-cylinders/

I did click through Petey. It is about Edwards, and it's touching, but it's really not that impressive otherwise.

The remark about the cool-aid was in reference to the notion that Edwards would beat McCain by a larger margin.

Spot on, Matt.

"I did click through Petey. It is about Edwards"

Huh. I could've sworn it was about Nataline Sarkisyan.

Some folks think this election is about the politicians running. Other folks think this election is about what happens to the American people.

We're just different on that point, I guess.

Some folks think this election is about the politicians running. Other folks think this election is about what happens to the American people.

Does it have to be one or the other? Some folks (me) might think it's about both.

Right on, Brother Matt. HRC has been held to a standard unique in either party. But I, too, can't really muster sympathy for the imminent collapse of her campaign, despite the fact I've voted twice for her as Senator. She's had 1,000,000 opportunities to do something imaginative over the past year and she's steadfastly refused. Even her healthcare plan basically ripped off Edwards'.

The single most fascinating thing to me about the Democratic race so far is this: how did an ambiguous answer to a complicated and comparatively minor policy question unravel Clinton, Inc.? In a single moment she became unglued and the scales all fell from our eyes: if she wasn't perfect all the time, if she couldn't maintain a facade of impeccable competence 24/7, well, she sure didn't deserve the nomination. Can you imagine the Republicans doing something like this to their frontrunner? I wonder what the historians will make of this.

Because the fever swamp, in the end, is getting the last laugh.

Interesting that he feels Hillary is toast. Even if Obama wins strongly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, there's a lot of states after that and Hillary has some cash. I mean she is doing fundraisers with Murdoch (part of the fever swamp if I remember).

Matt touches on a central point Obama has been making. The Clintons tell their supporters and the left "Look how much they hate us" but then don't get much done while making sordid deals with the Right supposedly to keep them at bay. It's an old politician's trick.

At least Drum is being honest, but he should lighten up. First off there's a woman speaker of the House, first in history. And maybe the swamp did help do in Hillary, but I think in the long run the fever swamp would have been better off with her. Obama could help put an end to the Republican's southern strategy and help build and inspire a long term liberal/left movement which is actually effective in stead of just merely being a President and head fund raiser of the Democratic party.

With Edwards, we'll get more hostile coverage than with Obama, and we'll win the election by a larger amount in a better geographical pattern.

This an increasingly difficult line to hold after Obama demonstrated an unprecedented ability to increase turnout and win swing voters in Iowa.

"The remark about the cool-aid was in reference to the notion that Edwards would beat McCain by a larger margin."

That's what pretty much all of the general election polling has shown, y'know.

"On top of all that: Getting good press is part of being an effective candidate and part of being an effective president."

Yes, to a point. However, when the mental meanderings of Maureen Dowd and Adam Nagourney constitute "good" and "bad" press, we are in deep, deep shit, and have been for quite some time.

More important to the future of this country than destroying the GOP is destroying the hideous culture of what passes for political commentary.

Also, Drum should be cheered by the fact that the Republicans are "in a pickle" as Harold Meyerson put it.

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=iowas_verdict

McCain took a principled stand on immigration which the base hates and the Republican establishment hates McCain even though he's been a loyal Bushy these last few years.

"The single most fascinating thing to me about the Democratic race so far is this: how did an ambiguous answer to a complicated and comparatively minor policy question unravel Clinton, Inc.?"

They were a disaster just waiting to happen.

Mark Penn ran an incredibly bad campaign. They've been strategically out of position since day one, and they never realized they were out of position.

Penn is an idiot. Bill Clinton has been stuck in the bubble for a decade. And Hillary Clinton has atrocious political instincts.

They're are a horrible operation, and it's all of our duties to put them out of their misery before they're able to regroup enough to grind their way to a narrow nomination win and the disaster that would then ensure.

I completely agree with Drum, Yglesias, and Petey.

TalkingPointsMemo
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/hillarys_claim_i_wouldnt_have_started_iraq_war.php

During a campaign stop in Nashua, Hillary Clinton might have just stepped on the beehive that has already caused her so much trouble in this campaign. "After 9/11, I would never have taken us to war in Iraq," she said, according to Ben Smith. "I would have stayed focused on Afghanistan because the real threat was coming from there."


I assume Kevin will take offense if this isn't covered by the press.

Regarding Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.

I teach HS science, mostly sophomores who are just starting to become politically aware. Most of my kids were born in 1992, the year Clinton was first elected. The last time someone not Clinton or Bush was elected was Reagan in 1980, 12 years before they were born. If Clinton wins this election my students will be into their mid-20s before seeing a non-Bush/Clinton president.

Today the average college sophomore was born in 1988, the year Bush I was elected. And they will be nearly 30 before getting the chance to see a non-Bush/Clinton president in their lifetimes.

Sorry folks, but in a country of 300 million we can do a bit better than that.

"The last time someone not Clinton or Bush was elected was Reagan in 198(4)"

Yup. I'd be tempted to oppose Senator Clinton even if she were the best candidate in the field solely on those grounds.

And she ain't even close to being the best candidate in '08. She seems to be narrowly edging out Bill Richardson for third best.

I partially agree with Tom.

And is it me or does Hillary seem exactly like Reese Witherspoon in ELECTION, the know-it-all who thinks she should win because she has "experience" and "deserves it" and this makes her blind to the fact that nobody can stand her???

The fact is, Hillary was being shrill. She was angry and foaming at the mouth because Edwards called her the "status quo". Pretending she wasn't is willful blindness.

Worse, she was bullshitting when she said it and wasn't even making any sense.

She has experience making change? What kind of stupid talk is that? Does she really think voters are gonna buy that mumbo jumbo? Seriously, she sounds a lot like Mitt Romney, the two of them jumping on the change bandwagon like a couple of kids jumping on the latest trend.

The fact that this is all she can say, co-opting Obama's buzz words like "change" and "fired up, ready to go" is pathetic and shows how desperate she is.

Look, most Democrats like Hillary and are glad she's on our side, but very few of them are excited about listening to her for the next 4 to 8 years. She's not an endearing gal, and the likeability thing DOES matter - and frankly, experience is overrated in elections. People like to vote for the fresh face.

This is why Nixon lost to Kennedy, Bush I to Clinton, Gore lost to Bush II.

Frankly, Hillary is JUST like Al Gore to a lot of folks now - someone who is so arrogant to think they "deserve" the Presidency, and voters don't like that schtick. You'd think she would have learned that after watching the last election. But unfortunately, as smart as she is, she has terrible political instincts.

And anyway, the experience card being played by Hillary is a joke to most voters, nobody believes that her experience as First Lady qualifies her for anything except to get cuckolded on more time and keep smiling, and everytime people hear her say "35 years" they just wonder, who the heck does she think she's fooling?

Good riddance to the Clintons, they have always been part of the problem, not the solution. And Hillary is a big part of it. The way she slimed the women her husband cheated on her with was disgusting. People won't forget that. Clearly they haven't.

Will Obama continue to get this kind of worshipful coverage in the general election campaign? Probably not, especially if he has to run against Saint John of Arizona.

Right. And the dems who support this lying clown, McCain, better go after him NOW. He is every bit as much a flip flopper as Romney.

We need to take out this senile old asshole NOW.


I don't care whether the next POTUS is Hillary, Obama, or Edwards -- as long as it's not anybody else. But among those three, I do care WHY s/he becomes President.

I do not want the next President to be elected on the basis that "we" can all get along. Nearly every single thing Dick and Dubya have done was either a crime or a blunder. But they didn't get to do what they did without the support of a particular kind of American: some of "us" still think Dubya is a fine President. How in hell does anybody expect me to get along with THOSE people?

The "change" I want to see is an explicit repudiation of Dick and Dubya -- which is to say, an explicit DEFEAT of that faction among my fellow Americans who have not yet renounced, abjured, and detested their error in voting for Dick and Dubya. Crudely put, I would prefer a narrow victory by a partisan Democrat to a landslide by an accomodationist Democrat.

Do NOT read the above as an endorsement of Hillary over Barak. There is still plenty of time for Obama to assert himself as a partisan. And I have no doubt he would preside as a Democrat, if elected. But if he gets himself elected as a "uniter", he will find it much harder to undo the damage done by Dick and Dubya. The commentariat will accuse him of duplicity, the minute he tells the remaining hard-core GOPers to sit down and shut up -- which he will have to do if his Presidency is to succeed.

-- TP

I feel badly for the way the press treats HRC and the Clintons as well, but I also know they bear a big part of the responsibility for their disastrous relationship with the press. She treats them openly with contempt. I'm not saying they don't deserve it, or that she doesn't have every reason to hate them. But it's tough to get through an entire presidential campaign, to say nothing of the presidency, when you're relationship with the press is combative, at best.

She doesn't even fly on the same plane as her press corp. She charters a SEPARATE plane so she does not have to fly with them. How is that remotely smart? In the last three days, since the Iowa win, how many snapshots and video -- not to mention direct quotes from the moment -- have we seen of Obama traveling to the back of his plane on the way from Iowa to NH to talk to the press about his win? I've seen many, many spots. Don't you think it would have done HRC a world of good to have done the same thing that night instead of sending Penn into the bowels of the "other" plane to deal with the press?

Both sides bear enormous responsibility for the screwed up relationship, and it's yet another example of what the country wants to MOVE ON from.

lol! Rebuttals of the form "person X isn't so bad off - she could be starving or dead" are always inane, but always funny to see.

And I don't think it makes sense to let resentment be the governing consideration here.

It may or may not make sense. I reckon most people think (correctly so in many cases) that what passes for a media in this country is dominated by a bunch of rich neo-feudalists with skewed and out of touch priority.

A candidate might very well be able to go far running on resentment of the media.

The problem is that people perceive the media as "liberal" (and hence perceive us liberals as they do the media) and, in spite of her actual standpoints and views (who, except political junkies, makes time to learn about these? -- it isn't as if the media is covering them ... and political junkies either already know who they're voting for or only care about the horse-race anyway, c.f. earlier discussions ...), HRC is viewed as teh liberal.

So I'm not sure if Hillary Clinton (or even Edwards) could pull off a media-resentment campaign. I'd say why Huckabee could, but that would be drifting too OT.

*

Because any time a woman raises her voice half a decibel she instantly becomes shrill.

This is no doubt true, but it ain't the whole story. Just because there are sexist double standards out there, doesn't mean every woman who's bizarrely treated by the press is a victim of one. I personally think a large part of the problem with many Democratic women (heck, this criticism even applied to Ann Richards: compare the actual delivery of her "silver foot in his mouth" line with how, e.g., you'd imagine Bill Clinton or Molly Ivins delivering such a line) is that they simply do not know how to modulate their voices!

Ever heard Hillary Clinton speak? Ever heard Nancy Pelosi speak? They grate on the ears. They sound like you would if you merely opened and closed your mouth when you spoke and didn't adjust the position of your lips to help you articulate sounds like "oh" and "oo". Ask them to give a speech in front of a large audience and, in order to be "loud and forceful" enough, they end up sounding like Loud Howard or Jacob Silj.

Sure, there are double standards about women and men being shrill, but some of the issue is that, since women are discouraged from being forceful, even the most eloquent women (in the past at least) never have had the same speech-making tips drilled into their heads as we men have had (a similar point can be made about assertiveness).

It's never too late, though, I reckon. Can't people with the money to do so pitch in to buy key Democrats some speech coaching?

1) I don't understand what Geo Bush being elected twice has anything to do with making Hillary Clinton a bad choice for Americans. Concerns about dynasties should fault the Bush dynasty above everything else.

2) The point to me is, we're letting the "fever swamp" set America's agenda and make our choices for us - as they've done since at least January 1993. The aren't doing it through any reasoned consideration of the issues or weighing of competing issues of what is best for America. And their loud wurlitzer and chorus isn't really allowing any such discussion or consideration to take place. So long as they can create and bring down an enemy. Do we really think that once Hillary is brought down that they are going to allow Obama or Edwards to just skate through?

Amen to Matt. Haven't we had enough of the politics of resentment? In Iowa, Hillary said she had thirty years of experience; now in N.H., she says she has thirty-five years of fighting for change. I couldn't figure out what she was talking about until I realize that she thinks she's leading the way if people hate her!

Heck, by that standard, Mitt Rommney deserves to be president -- seems like just about everybody hates him.

She's had 1,000,000 opportunities to do something imaginative over the past year and she's steadfastly refused.

Personally, I thought that was one of her more attractive qualities. I didn't want a candidate who was going to do something "unexpected" during the campaign and risk getting killed in the general election. I wanted a disciplined, highly-scripted candidate with a clear set of repetitive, easily-remember talking points released day-after-day during the campaign.

What's beginning to dawn on me is that the lofty, cliched rhetoric of Obama is probably the irony-free, familiar set of platitudes that voters are attracted to.

Getting good press is part of being an effective candidate and part of being an effective president

Which is why it drives me nuts when the media is blamed for what happened to Al Gore's run. And the man is certainly ready for the presidency now, part of the reason is that he learned how to get good press, did he ever, did he ever. He wouldn't be listening to no Mark Penn types, that's for sure, kick their butts out the door.

The point here isn't about sympathy for the Clinton's, it is about the state of our democracy and the very real role the DC press corps has had in perverting it for the past 15 years.

We are in Iraq because of the behavior of the press corps in the 2000 election.

To have a 'who cares', or a 'well, i care a little but that shrill bitch deserves it' attitude about this is not only shameful, but counter-productive.

They will be coming after your candidate next, putting every crackpot in the world who has something bad to say about Obama on cable news 24/7, which the MSM will pick up because it is now a 'story' with a 'denial'.

To use Petey's quote in a diffent context, when the MSM attacks Democratio candidates with bogus naratives, or double standards, they need to be "slaughtered with extreme malice." By liberal writers with significant platforms and influence.

Because any time a woman raises her voice half a decibel she instantly becomes shrill.

What a bunch of BS.

Romney just sent out a release of McCain's ten biggest temper-tantrums. If they end up being effective in influencing opinion against McCain, it won't be because of media bias against old, white veterans.

"Can't people with the money to do so pitch in to buy key Democrats some speech coaching?"

You could hire me a basketball coach, and he might be able to improve my jump shot a bit, but he'd never be able to turn me into Allen Iverson.

Bill Clinton had raw talent.

John Edwards and Barack Obama both have raw talent.

Hillary Clinton doesn't have raw talent.

No amount of coaching will ever be able to turn her into a gifted communicator.

We're trying to hire someone to be our nominee. One of the key job requirements is the ability to push our agenda and go get the American public to agree with us. Talent makes that task much more possible.

Getting good press is part of being an effective candidate and part of being an effective president.

Let me invite you to revisit the history of the 2000 campaign and consider this sentence in light of the potential presidential effectiveness of the two candidates in that election, and the press coverage the two candidates in fact received. The writings of Bob Somerby would make a dandy starting place.

"Ever heard Hillary Clinton speak? Ever heard Nancy Pelosi speak? They grate on the ears ... Sure, there are double standards about women and men being shrill"

Barbara Boxer, on the other hand, is a gifted communicator.

DAS --

Gotta address your post about the "grating" voices of HRC and Pelosi. I lived for eight years under the heavy yoke of Rudy Giuliani, and his lisp drove me (and hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers) nuts. I knew folks at City Hall who privately called him "Thufferin' Thucotash."

Have you ever heard the MSM mock his voice? Of course not! A vile sexist double standard, so please spare me the sermon about speech coaches for Democrats.

Will Obama continue to get this kind of worshipful coverage in the general election campaign? Probably not, especially if he has to run against Saint John of Arizona.

I haven't been worried much about McCain since he admitted on tape that he would be fine with Americans being in Iraq for 100 years.

artappraiser: "Which is why it drives me nuts when the media is blamed for what happened to Al Gore's run. And the man is certainly ready for the presidency now, part of the reason is that he learned how to get good press, did he ever, did he ever."

That has to be among the dumbest things I have read in a long time.

1) When one candidate is clearly and obviously being treated more harshly, and unfairly (i.e., Gore/Bush), it is never the fault of the candidate. Professional journalists committing malpractice is the fault of one person--the journalist.

2) Al Gore "learned" how to get good press?? Yes, he did, you know how? Not running for president with this press corps.

Regarding the criticism that Obama is all platitudes.

Frankly I think he is taking lessons from Bush. GW was the ultimate empty suit in 2000 vs Gore. He spoke in nothing but platitudes: "uniter not a divider" "compassionate conservative" "not interested in nationbuilding" "we need a humble foreign policy" etc. etc. Gore was all policy 101 every time he opened his mouth with references to "lockboxes" and various pieces of arcane legislation by name.

Setting aside the fact that Gore actually won the election, I think it can be said that empty rhetoric didn't hurt Bush in the slightest. Nor did it constrain him in the slightest once in office.

Obama is one of the smartest and most intuitive politicians we've seen since Bill Clinton. He knows that winning elections isn't about massaging the intellects of the political cognoscenti. It's about inspiring the normally apathetic and apolitical center to swing your way.

As for governing? Bush has already shown us that campaign rhetoric need have no relation to how one governs. I trust Obama (and any of the Dem candidates for that matter) know this.

"To use Petey's quote in a diffent context, when the MSM attacks Democratio candidates with bogus naratives, or double standards, they need to be "slaughtered with extreme malice." By liberal writers with significant platforms and influence."

I'll be happy to sign your petition, but that's not going to solve the problem on it's own.

There was a time, back in the 70's, when the media actually was slightly liberal. Or perhaps just authentically centrist. Conservatives had been complaining about the media and writing about it for years, with no success.

So how did they change it?

They nominated a gifted communicator who was also a proud and outspoken conservative - Ronald Reagan. And Reagan won at the ballot box while espousing a philosophy considered out of the mainstream.

Whamm-o. Within a decade, the media had totally absorbed Reagan's values. And here we are.

If we want to change the media narrative, watchdogging the media isn't going to be enough. We've got to put up a proud and outspoken progressive and win at the ballot box.

The media respects power. And electing someone who hold views outside of their mainstream is a demonstration of power.

-----

Matthew wants to nominate a candidate who he thinks the media will be nice to. And that's not how to play the game.

It is about Edwards, and it's touching, but it's really not that impressive otherwise.
The remark about the cool-aid was in reference to the notion that Edwards would beat McCain by a larger margin.

It's not really about Edwards at all, Jake (how could it be about him, yet touching, you dork?). It's about the point he makes, known variously as 'you can't 'nice' these people to death', and 'powerful interests won't give up privilege without a fight', et. al. I don't really have a fundamental problem with Obama except that I worry a little that he's misleading some of his groupies (or they are allowing themselves to be mislead) with the idea that there is such a thing as a 'new kind of politiics'. There is no 'new kind' of politics, kids. All power and kudos to either Edwards or Obama if they can win big in the general and force some changes, but don't kid yourself about a new politics, and don't imagine that being a good organizer/negotiator is the same thing as being good at wielding enormous power. This is not to say that Obama can't be a good pres., just that the one doesn't follow from the other.

I admire Obama for, among other things, having decided to be a community organizer instead of doing what most people that age now would do, which is go get a corporate job. Maybe it was slightly easier for him than it is for new graduates now (higher debt now), but it's still admirable, and useful. But it must be borne in mind that Saul Alinsky's techniques for organization - which are what Obama was using and, to some extent, still uses - were for, essentially, powerless people. Is the American electorate powerless? No. Depressed and cynical? Yes. Powerless? Hardly. Is the Democratic party powerless in 2008? HARDLY. The Democratic party is almost *bound* to sweep back into power in a big way no matter what. Edwards says the government belongs to us and we must take it back. Obama says we must, above all, 'hope'.

Hope is for supplicants, underdogs, powerless people. We don't need hope so much as we need *balls* (or ovaries). We need to snap-the-fuck out of it. The first step to deposing the GOP is to stop letting them define us, either directly or by reaction.

For those commenters who think it's clever to bring up Edwards' 2002 vote on Iraq yet again, I would pose the following: Al Gore was a rather conservative, DLC Democrat with responsibility in government for many many more years - in fact, his whole adult life - than was Edwards; and yet when Gore changed his mind about Iraq - both '91 and '02 - and about many other things, people like you rallied around him - lionized him, in fact. I wonder why it is that Gore is more/less taken at his word, and someone like Edwards isn't? I can't escape the conclusion that if Gore were a talented politician (rather than just a talented and good person), he wouldn't be. Y'all are scared of competent politicians (unless you think they're somehow 'new').

The other answer is mindless partisanship, exactly, precisely, like Republicans'. Nice going, guys. You notice I have (and have always had) no problem saying nice, admiring things about Obama even though he's not my first choice, but the real Obamabots can do no such thing vis a vis Edwards; the bots, in fact, must believe something they couldn't possibly have any basis for knowing - that Edwards is a cheap phoney who doesn't mean what he says. Maybe when you grow up a little, and we all are a little clearer of the Republican Fog the country's been in for decades, you can behave more like human beings. Hope you're not too cynical and disappointed by then....

Barbara Boxer, on the other hand, is a gifted communicator. - Petey

She even manages to sway wingnuts onto her side. She's quite good. She knows how to speak, what to say and how to say it.

*

BryklynLibrul, Re: Giuliani ... maybe it's just a matter of personal preference but I (and many people I know) simply, as much as we can't stand St. Rudy, don't find lisps to be grating or shrill sounding. If anything the lisp makes Giuliani seem less threatening and "balances" his tough-guy persona. Of course, there is a double standard: could you imagine what the media would do to a female candidate with a lisp ("oh how cute", etc. [ gag ]).

OTOH, the only person I can think of off hand who had the same sort of voice quality as HRC or Pelosi who didn't sound completely shrill was Aimee Semple MacPherson (sp?) -- and she was such a showperson (and very much modulated her voice even if her voice did have a somewhat grinding sound to it) that it made up for her voice quality.

Again, my suggestion is read this speech and imagine Bill Clinton or Molly Ivins giving it. Think of how it would sound. Then listen to a recording of Ann Richards (whom I generally admire greatly) actually giving the speech.

Alas, none of the Dem. candidates even would consider giving such a wondeful speech. And it was effective and memorable even as Ann Richards gave it. But imagine how much of a splash it would make if given as a speech by a Dem party Pres. candidate and spoken in a folksy, down-home style. And think of how the person who gave it would be perceived.

Certainly, if they said it in a folksy manner, they'd be perceived as folksy and straight talking ... but it might even be perceived as shrill if given in a rough tone of voice.

Regarding the criticism that Obama is all platitudes.

We're both on the same page on this one. I'm listening to Obama and thinking, "cripes, don't patronize me and stop acting like you'll nice the Republicans into submission." But now I see that everyone else hears this stuff and thinks, "wow! This is so inspiring!"

Personally, even though I was pulling for Edwards, I thought voters were going to go for "disciplined message machine" over "stock cliches from civics class." Turns out I was wrong, and people are buying what Obama is selling. Lots of people saw the movie "Titanic," too.

PLus, as I said in another thread, this disarms the Broderian axis-of-centrism by co-opting their message.

Hope is for supplicants, underdogs, powerless people.

Yes, true. But selling hope doesn't remind people that they're underdogs and powerless, and is thus apparently more saleable than someone who plans to "fight for the powerless against the rich and powerful," which is basically telling people that they're poor and powerless.

"You notice I have (and have always had) no problem saying nice, admiring things about Obama even though he's not my first choice, but the real Obamabots can do no such thing vis a vis Edwards"

It's interesting. I think we're in for a much longer nomination battle than most folks have even begun to imagine. I think we're likely to go into March with a weird three-way race where no one can get up to 50%.

And one of the reasons I think Edwards is going to end up prevailing is because the Obamabots don't know how to form coalitions. Whoever wins is going to be the campaign that reaches out to others.

"this disarms the Broderian axis-of-centrism by co-opting their message."

If the goal is simply to win the WH, the Obama strategy is just fine.

If the goals are to 1) accomplish items off the progressive agenda and 2) forge a more congenial media atmosphere, the the Obama strategy is problematic.

Petey,

I'm not sure you really appreciate the religious fervor that's going to attach to the Obama candidacy if he wins NH by a greater margin than he won Iowa with (which is how the polling looks). And Edwards really doesn't have the money or organization--seems to me--to hang around hoping for a stumble. If Obama wins NH 40-29, he'll win SC 60-10.

And one of the reasons I think Edwards is going to end up prevailing

Is this a joke?

I'm 100% pro-Edwards, on the merits and on his strengths in the genral election, but unfortunately he's just not a realistic possibility any more, given the way the primary campaign has shaken out.

An Edwards nom would pretty much take Obama getting caught with a dead boy or a live ostritch, at this point.

Blame the media,
blame the media,
for their transparency hullabaloo
(and that bitch Gail Collins too)
Blame the media,
blame the media!
(It's easier to point a finger, anyway).

Contempt for the press generally equates to contempt for the public (see the past seven years with Messrs. Bush, Cheney and lying asshole Ari Fleischer). When someone refuses to deal with the media, they send a message that they don't trust the public's judgement or that truth wins in open forums. Engaging openly with the press heads off at least 90 percent of any troubles you run into -- without doing so, you let you opponents dictate the narrative about you, and you create your own narrative about your need for secrecy (see Nixon, Carter and, uh, Bush).

Iagree with johnnybutter that certain Obama supporters posting on blogs are obnoxious, but the obnoxiousness is hardly limited to Obama supporters. I think it's likely that Edwards' current style is more real than his DLC-centrist bit. You can't be as effective a trial lawyer as he was without believing what he was saying about corporations and the powerful screwing over the powerless. I like Edwards' bluntness and I'm glad he is in this race. But I think Obama rather than Edwards has the chance to be a game changer and a liberal Reagan. Frankly, after Iowa I have trouble understanding how one could believe the opposite, whatever general election polls of people who aren't paying attention yet might say.

Edwards, who has been unfairly excluded from consideration as a real contender, has a bigger reason to complain about the media than Clinton. To his credit, he hasn't whined about it. Generally speaking, I hate complaints about the media. It's a sign of weakness. A good candidate defines the media message, it doesn't let the media define him (or her).

I'm with southpaw on this. I don't see 60-10 in SC, but a big win nonetheless.

And for the record, I'm an Obama supporter, and like Edwards a great deal. If Obama cratered, I'd shift my support to Edwards. And If he hadn't run as VP in 2004, he'd clearly be an obvious choice for VP this time.

But if the polls coming out now are at all accurate, this is moot. At worst they have Obama tied, at best up 12 or so, and the momentum seems to be in his direction. Nothing happened at the debate last night to change that, I don't think.

Clinton victimology seemingly knows no bounds. Of course there are people in the media who just don't like Hillary Clinton. They haven't liked her for many years. But that's not why she lost so many rank and file Democrats who used to support her. If you had asked me in 2000 or 2001, I would have had no problem projecting that I would vote for her some day for President.

She lost those Democrats, and me, largely because of a pattern of supporting the Bushite foreign policy in the Middle East. The war vote, the Israel-Lebanon war demagoguery, running to the right of Bush in early 2007 on Iran, and then Lieberman-Kyl. It's that record that has done her in. And watching her performance on foreign policy has allowed Democrats the prism to see that there was more than a little truth in the image of her as an unprincipled calculator, and a prisoner of special interests. Where we were once inclined to defend her against those charges, we no longer could.

It's intellectually lazy to put all this down to the fact that "any time a woman raises her voice half a decibel she instantly becomes shrill." This is really preposterous. I just saw a live CSPAN broadcast of a speech Michelle Obama gave today in Plymouth New Hampshire. Ms. Obama is also a successful lawyer and professional. She also speaks out and raises her voice plenty. She's opinionated, forceful and direct. And yet nobody thinks she's shrill. Could Clinton's fans please finally get to the point where they accept that the Clinton unlikability factor is not attributable to her gender, but to her own unique personality?

Finally, Drum's bigotry about the unfair and unwholesome role of "corn farmers" is as ignorant as it is ugly. Iowa was tailor-made for Clinton. She is a native of nearby Illinois and the former first lady of Arkansas, and note that a current Senator from Illinois won the Democratic race while an Arkansas governor won the Republican race. She's white, and the wife of a popular Democratic President. She was a prohibitive early favorite and the clear early frontrunner in the polls. With every advantage in the world, she lost. Doesn't that suggest that it doesn't matter which state went first? Wherever it was, it appears that once people examine her record, take a closer look at her and take her measure, they stop liking her and stop supporting her.

"I'm not sure you really appreciate the religious fervor that's going to attach to the Obama candidacy if he wins NH by a greater margin than he won Iowa with (which is how the polling looks)."

Oh, but I do.

I thought NH was Obama's by 9pm Thursday night. And I thought SC was likely Obama's even if he'd lost IA and NH.

But I don't think you appreciate the mechanics of winning the nomination. There a chance that the Clinton campaign will simply implode during January and not survive to contest 2/5 - they do seem pretty damn dysfunctional - but I think that's pretty unlikely.

And if Clinton remains in the race, it's in the interests of both the Obama and Edwards campaigns for Edwards to remain in the race, so he'll do so as well. Everyone will have enough money to gas up the planes. No one will have a reason to drop.

And then we hit 2/5, and the big question is whether or not Obama can rack up close to 50%, which I'm betting he probably won't be able to do. So Clinton will continue combat. Edwards will hold on to the left and protect Obama. Everyone will have enough money to gas up the planes. No one will have a reason to drop. And we'll keep having elections every week and wait for things to break.

Sometime around 3/4, folks will start freaking out about brokered conventions, and then pressure will start getting applied, and then folks might start having a reason to drop out.

Three is a magic number. Start reading your history of 1968 and 1988.

You're going to have a very pleasant January, southpaw, but the name of this game is getting up to 2025. The rules are specifically set up to prevent plurality nominees.

Why was the nomination fight short in 2000? Because the frontrunner won IA and NH.

Why was the nomination fight short in 2004? Because the frontrunner utterly imploded after losing IA and NH.

Why will the nomination fight be short in 2008?

I think the '04 scenario is possible, but unlikely. If not that, what else?

I do feel angry at the way the "press" treats Hilary Clinton. On the other hand, I also feel like it is blowback. When Bill Clinton was in office, the neo-liberal, cool thing to do was lighten up the regulation of press ownership - i.e., let the Murdochian pigs take over. Well, gee, it now turns out that the press plays a part in politics, and a monopoly owned press plays a part to advantage its interests. Who woulda thought? It is always that way with the Clintons. Bill would not have been under the gun from the Starr inquisition if he hadn't signed the abysmal and stupid Susan Molinari law that made all sexual relations in the working world the government's business - a nauseating extension of a real harm in which the government has a legitimate interest, sexual harrassment. The Clintons are quite happy to triangulate if it means making other people miserable, but they bitterly complain if they are discomforted.

If we wanted a better press, we wouldn't have passed laws to make sure we had big press monopolies with no responsibility for using the public airwaves, who can use their economic power to shut down opposition, etc., etc.

"I think the '04 scenario is possible, but unlikely. If not that, what else?"

1) The Clintons find their fundraising dry up. Seems utterly implausible to me.

2) The Clintons decide to retire from the scene out of a sense of decency. Seems utterly implausible to me.

3) Obama racks up 50% of the delegates on 2/5. Seems plausible, but pretty damn unlikely to me.

I guess I think MY really doesn't quite get Kevin Drum's point. Sure, narrowly speaking, you shouldn't vote for a candidate just because she's the victim of unfair BS MSM coverage, and I don't think even Drum would endorse that. The point of Drum's post is to highlight the unfairness of the pehenomenon HRC has been subjected to for 15 years in order for the rest of us to object. Which most of us good liberals, like MY, have been too gutless to make a stink about. Do you think in a million years the conservatives would trot out some attitude of "unfair, yes, but maybe he/she had it coming" if one of their own got accused of murder, land fraud, drug dealing, lesbian affairs, and general hairy-legged nut-cutting feminism, on and on, for 15 years? Or just yawn when the NYT speculates about whether she has sex any more with Bill? Or look the other way when Tweety calls her supporters eunuchs in the castrato chorus? Look, support who you want (I like Edwards), but Drum and others like Somerby and the Media Matters folks have been trying to get us to wake up and fight this unfair shit for years. Because now it's Hillary, yesterday it was Bill and Gore, and it has been and might continue to be Osama/Obama and the Breck Girl. When are we going to wake up and realize we need to defend our guys, whoever they are, when this BS happens because that's the only way to make it stop. Instead, and the comments here demonstrate it, we just roll our eyes about those Clintons, make a half-hearted acknowledgment like MY of the problem, and move on. Drum was trying in his own way to make that point, and MY and too many of y'all just want to drive by that ugly, unseemly traffic accident (so messy!), eyes averted, and drive away. Until the next one, and the next one, and the next one.....Fighting liberals my ass.

scott,

Democrats did not abandon Clinton because of Vince Foster rumors, lesbian rumors, or any of that stuff, because even after all of that she was the clear Democratic front-runner in 2007. Right-wing scandal mongers aren't voting in the Democratic primary. If she loses the nomination, she will have lost it because of her record in the Senate, and because of her failure to establish trust among sufficient numbers of Democratic voters.

the pehenomenon HRC has been subjected to for 15 years in order for the rest of us to object. Which most of us good liberals, like MY, have been too gutless to make a stink about.

No, we aren't "gutless", Scott. Progressives just don't feel the need to keep defending Clintons when the Clintons sold out progressives at every turn.

You and Bob Sommerby don't seem to get that, but everyone else does.

What's bad for Clintons is good for liberalism.

They can send her to Guantanamo for all I care.

Petey, Sweetey, could you be more of a rotten sexist?

If she loses the nomination, she will have lost it because of her record in the Senate, and because of her failure to establish trust among sufficient numbers of Democratic voters.

Exactly.

Drum's mentality is pathetic. "The Right and the media hate her, therefore we need to elect her just to shove it in their faces." What an inspiring and rational way to choose your leaders. Drum's mindset is the definition of mindless partisanship. It isn't the partisanship I object to -- it's the mindlessness. Never mind the fact that Hillary has done nothing but enable the Bush administration at every turn.

He apparently views politics as some sort of tribal war in which everyone has forgotten what they are even fighting over, which is why he said the other day that he doesn't even care about HRC's policies or ideas -- he is just so outraged that she has been treated "unfairly" that that trumps everything but his desire to stick his finger in Rush Limbaugh's eye.

I think he is a typical Hillary supporter in this sense.

Jennifer, Sweety, could you be more specific about what you're accusing me over?

Obama said the word change 35 times in his post-Iowa speech: is that good speaking or is that a mr. Subliminal man skit from Saturday night live?

On Meet the Press, asked about his inexperience, why not wait, he quotes MLK JR. about the importance of now: King was talking about not waiting for the whites to be ready for civil rights movement BUT Obama perverts the quote so that its all about him, so that he doesn't have to answer the question about why a neophyte shouldn't get a little more know-how before leading the free world.

Bludgeoning us over the head with a word that has no specifics is just vulgar product placement.
Hiding behind a martyred civil rights leader rather than explain his resume is crass and craven. yes I like the guy, but a little less dishonesty and a little less slickness would make me more comfortable.

Fact is, the Clintons were an embarrassment to a lot of people who supported them. The whole "blow jobs in the White House" thing is not something people are just gonna forget. Yes, the Republicans went overboard, but still...not only did Bill do something totally despicable, but he lied about it, under oath, and then put the country through one of the worst, most embarrassing times in it's history with the impeachment fight.

If the Clintons really cared about America, and cared about the Democratic Party, they would have stepped down during that fiasco.

But no, it's all about them. They were the ones who were wronged, they were the victims.

Baloney.

Hillary is a smart and capable lady, but most of this country is not ready to give that couple the keys to the White House back after they totally disgraced it the last time.

And yes, Hillary was part of the problem - this is a woman who viciously went after her husbands girlfriends while knowing full well they were telling the truth.

But again, it's all about them.

Good riddance to the Clintons.

The voters know what the definition of change is - turning the page on both the Bushes and the Clintons.

Time to truly move on...

"Because any time a woman raises her voice half a decibel she instantly becomes shrill."

That's not true. And while it's undeniably true that Republicans are terrified of women (and anyone who isn't a white male), the dislike Democrats have for Hillary, I believe, has nothing to do with her gender or raising her voice. Oprah was pratically screaming while stumping for Obama, did anyone call her "shrill"? No. The fact that Hillary refused to apologize for greenlighting the clusterfuck in Iraq wasn't bad enough, but she voted in 2007 to authorize the insane Lieberman-Kyle amendment! That proved she either has learned nothing with her "vast experience" or she is no different than any other rightwing, corporate, pro-war lunatic. She has always seemed MUCH to MUCH like a Republican and THAT - not her voice or her vagina - is what turns people off.

Jennifer, Sweety, could you be more specific about what you're accusing me over?


Posted by Petey | January 6, 2008 8:07 PM

sheesh Petey I am disappointed in you feeding a troll.

Has anyone seen "Jennifer" ever post a comment with content? All I have seen from this commenter is really dumb insults hurled at anyone she thinks of as a conservative; they're not even witty insults.

moron: "What's bad for Clintons is good for liberalism."

Of course, moron, the Earned Income Tax Credit is probably not high on your list of priorities.

Never has a screen name been more appropriate.

Michael: his resume


Barak's Resume:
www.barackobama.com/pdf/warspeech.pdf

Clinton's Resume:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Back_to_Iraq.html

Sure, a lot of people in and out of the press don't like Hillary.

There are also reasons they don't like Hillary.

Part of the reasons are partisan politics.

Part of the reasons are she just isn't a likeable person - or at least does not come across as one.

People like me who complain nobody ever liked them get told repeatedly that it's because there's something wrong with them.

Well, there you go, Hillary: something is wrong with you.

Probably because you're a corrupt, money-grubbing, lying bitch who owes her ass to AIPAC, Israel and Marc Rich and a bunch of rich lawyers in this country.

Who the FUCK is stupid enough to take you seriously as a President when you voted to attack Iraq and want to bomb Iran - and probably will get us mired in Pakistan as well?

Anybody show me ONE instance - with a link, please - where this woman has said ONE thing intelligent about either Iran or Pakistan?

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