Chad Ford writes up six better deals that Phoenix could have made for Shawn Marion. Of course not trading Shawn Marion would also have been a good move. This whole thing makes their decision to let Kurt Thomas walk seem all the more baffling.
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Alternatives
08 Feb 2008 02:44 pm
Comments (32)
Matthew,
Chad Ford is still touting Darko. Or, at least, not slagging him with the description of an "unproven commodity."
Yes, that Darko.
That shoots down all of Ford's credibility on the subject.
Besides, many of these teams DON'T want Marion for the same reason Miami does: because Shawn may walk. Recall that Marion killed deals this past off-season because of his option.
Seriously Matt, don't leave us hanging like that. What are the deals?
Chad Ford's an ass. The only worthwhile NBA person left at ESPN is Hollinger. (I have to admit that was a hell of a pickup for the NY Sun.) It's not clear to me that any of the others even watch the games.
I'm not that impressed with the proposals. For those w/o Insider, here they are:
Shawn Marion and Eric Piatkowski to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal
Shawn Marion to Chicago for Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas
Shawn Marion to Philadelphia for Samuel Dalembert and Kevin Ollie
Shawn Marion and the Hawks' No. 1 pick to Memphis for Darko Milicic and Mike Miller
Shawn Marion to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko
Shawn Marion and Grant Hill to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson, Nenad Krstic, Josh Boone and Jamaal Magloire
I like the Chicago one all right, from PHX's perspective, but my impression is that Chicago is never, ever going to trade anyone. In any event, all of these trades have a lot of downsides and question marks too.
Another Christmas Day in February?
After the Los Angeles Lakers got a gift-wrapped Pau Gasol last week, are the Miami Heat getting a similar present from Santa this week?
Around the NBA, everyone from general managers to sportswriters to fans are flabbergasted at the Shaquille O'Neal for Shawn Marion trade.
The Big Diesel is 35 going on 36, injured again, out of shape and having the worst year of his career. Miami, with the worst record in the NBA, is imploding and can't go anywhere in the standings until they get rid of O'Neal's contract, which has about $50 million remaining.
Several NBA GMs I spoke with believe that the Heat-Suns trade is more lopsided than the recent trade of Gasol to the Lakers, for which the Memphis Grizzlies received little in return.
How could the Heat get one of the most talented players in the league for a 35-year-old center they wanted to give away?
Remember, the talk last year was about the Suns' trading Marion in a three-way deal for Kevin Garnett -- a guy who is currently a front-runner in the MVP race.
But Marion for Shaq?
Listen to one GM talk about Marion: "Our team thinks Marion is still one of the top 10 players in the league. He's so good defensively. He reminds me a bit of Ron Artest back when he was playing well in Indiana. On any given night he could go out there and shut down the opposing team's best player. Marion is so long, athletic and quick, he can guard just about anyone. Add in his offense and I think he's one of the most valuable players in the league."
And Shaq? Said the same GM: "He can't guard anyone. He can't get up and down the floor. You'd expect a desperate team like the Knicks or Nets to make a move for Shaq … but the Suns? I still can't believe it. They are making a huge mistake. Trading Marion for Shaq will destroy that team, not only this year, but for years to come. I'm sure [Lakers owner] Jerry Buss and [Mavericks owner] Mark Cuban are thrilled."
That may be an overly negative view of Shaq, who can still muscle his way around the basket on the offensive end. He may not be his formerly dominant self, but he is still averaging 14 points and nearly eight rebounds while shooting nearly 60 percent from the field. However, his lack of defense, effort and good health put his value seriously into question on any team; and on the Suns it appears to be the worst possible fit.
So ... what was Suns GM Steve Kerr thinking?
Over the course of the past few months we've known that Kerr was out there looking for a tough inside presence to replace the guy he gave away in the summer -- Kurt Thomas. That makes this deal all the more confusing. With the Suns sending signals that they want to improve their defense, why did they trade their best defender for a guy who hasn't been a major defender in the league for the past two seasons?
[+] Enlarge
Marvin Williams and Shawn Marion
Barry Gossage/Getty Images
Matrix can defend every position. Did the Suns get enough in return?
The rumblings we're all hearing point to chemistry issues between Marion and the rest of the team. Amare Stoudemire is reportedly for the Shaq trade. So is Steve Nash. But players don't make great GMs (just ask Kobe Bryant). Are they giving away a key component of their team just to pacify some personal feelings?
The rumblings also point to a philosophical disagreement between Kerr and coach Mike D'Antoni. D'Antoni's style of basketball emphasized offense. Kerr thinks that without a better defensive effort, the Suns can't go all the way.
"If it works, I'm a genius," Kerr said. "If it doesn't, I'm a moron, I guess."
Finally, at least one source says that owner Robert Sarver is starstruck. He still views Shaq as a dominant player. Clearly he hasn't watched the big fella play in a while.
So if the Shaq deal is really that bad for the Suns, and if the Suns really are desperate for size and interior defense, couldn't they have done much better than Shaq? The answer seems to be a resounding yes.
Here are some potential deals that would have been a better fit for Phoenix. I've broken them into two categories.
Category 1: Add size, trade Marion
Following the parameters set forth in the actual Shaq-to-the-Suns trade … were there better big men available for Marion?
Trade 1: Shawn Marion and Eric Piatkowski to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal
Why: O'Neal is six years younger than Shaq. He's a better shot-blocker and defender and he's more equipped to run the floor in the style the Suns like to play. He has been sidelined with a bone bruise, but he would have likely been back in two weeks.
For the Pacers, this would have given them a chance to reinvent themselves. Marion would have become the man on the team -- something he's wanted for years -- and the Pacers would have saved some money and likely gotten back into the playoff race in the East.
In my opinion, this would've been a much better deal for the Suns.
Trade 2: Shawn Marion to Chicago for Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas
Why: Wallace may be on the decline, but he's still a better defender and more athletic than Shaq. Big Ben has two years and $29 million left on his deal after this season, which is $11 million less than Shaq.
Thomas is an excellent prospect whom the Suns loved in the draft two years ago. He has the ability to do some of the things that Marion did with the Suns, especially on the offensive end of the floor. The Suns also love Joakim Noah, though I think they would have opted for Thomas, given the choice.
As for the Bulls, they need to do something. Marion is more of a 3 than a 4, but put him at the 4 and Noah at the 5, and the Bulls could have been very effective in an up-tempo type of game.
Trade 3: Shawn Marion to Philadelphia for Samuel Dalembert and Kevin Ollie
Why: Everyone is talking about the Sixers' desire for cap room, but if they got their hands on a player like Marion, they might already be looking at a strong playoff team. Put him on the floor with Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller and the Sixers would look like a playoff sleeper.
Dalembert is younger and more athletic and a better rebounder and shot-blocker than Shaq. And while he makes a lot of money, Dalembert's contract (for the next three seasons) averages only $12 million per season, considerably less than Shaq's deal.
Trade 4: Shawn Marion and the Hawks' No. 1 pick to Memphis for Darko Milicic and Mike Miller
Why: Darko is still an unproven commodity, but he's huge and he rebounds and blocks shots. He's also an excellent athlete who can get up the floor better than Shaq. Miller's sharpshooting abilities would have made him an excellent fit in the Phoenix offense.
As for the Grizzlies, they are in cost-cutting mode and could have saved a considerable amount of money if Marion, unhappy with being shipped to Memphis, opted out of his contract this summer. Even if Marion stayed for another season, the trade would have opened up a huge amount of cap room for the team in the summer of 2009. They'd also highly value that Hawks' pick.
Category 2: Best value for Marion
Here are a couple of deals that get the Suns back value for Marion, but not the defensive presence in the middle that they're looking for.
Trade 1: Shawn Marion to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko
Why: The Suns would not have gotten a big, bruising center, but they would have walked away with a much better defender (than Shaq) for their system. Kirilenko can run the floor, block shots, get steals and hit the glass. It would have required Stoudemire to stay at the 5, but in the long run, Kirilenko would have been a great fit in Phoenix.
For the Jazz, Kirilenko still isn't a great fit with Carlos Boozer on the floor. Marion is a better fit and would have given the Jazz a better perimeter defender and someone who could score in more ways than Kirilenko can.
Trade 2: Shawn Marion and Grant Hill to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson, Nenad Krstic, Josh Boone and Jamaal Magloire
Why: Jefferson would have been a great fit in Phoenix on the offensive end and Boone and Magloire would have given them two big bodies to help out on the defensive end. Krstic could have been a big help down the road, if he returned from his injury problems.
The Nets would like to blow up their team. And since moving Jason Kidd and Vince Carter has proven difficult, this would have been another way to go. Marion would have helped them on rebounding and the defensive end and Hill could have been another nice veteran to fill in at the 3.
In short, it appears that any of these deals would've better positioned the Suns to compete for a championship both now and in the future.
Only time will tell whether Kerr's big gamble pays off for the Suns. But we won't have to wait long to find out the answer. If the Suns don't bring home the title with Shaq this season, this could go down as one of the worst trades in NBA history. If they win it all, like Kerr said, they'll look like geniuses.
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
Yo. Matt. Marion didn't want to be there. He had asked to be traded before the season even started. And this was having a toxic effect upon the entire team chemistry. You can keep ignoring this factor all you want but that's not going to make it go away. Just admit that you're a little heart broken about all this. Gold Star for Robot Boy finished this argument for me yesterday. Nothing wrong with little guys hoping against hope that small and quick will somehow win the NBA championship but at some point it begins to resemble the notion that Lucy might actually let you kick the football.
Yo. Matt. Marion didn't want to be there. He had asked to be traded before the season even started. And this was having a toxic effect upon the entire team chemistry. You can keep ignoring this factor all you want but that's not going to make it go away. Just admit that you're a little heart broken about all this. Gold Star for Robot Boy finished this argument for me yesterday. Nothing wrong with little guys hoping against hope that small and quick will somehow win the NBA championship but at some point it begins to resemble the notion that Lucy might actually let you kick the football.
Wasn't Marion going to leave Phoenix anyway? Nash is getting older and the Suns' window for possibly winning a title is starting to close. As constituted prior to the trade, the Suns had yet to make the Finals even once. Basically, the Suns looked at their strengths and weaknesses, and decided they'd rather take a run at a title, this year, with Shaquille O'Neal instead of Shawn Marion. Time will tell how it works out, but I'm stunned that people think an undersized team acquiring a 7-foot Hall of Famer with 4 championship rings is an obviously terrible idea.
The Shawn Marion for Kirilenko trade doesn't make that much sense, in that Kirilenko is basically a not-quite-as-good version of Marion. The only reason it might have made sense is that Kirilenko wants out of Utah and Marion wants out of Phoenix.
Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas would have been the best, I think, except I'm not sure about the length of Wallace's deal. As many have already noted, it was probably attractive to Phoenix that Shaq and Nash will expire at the same time.
Er, that their deals will expire, that is. Not that they'll actually die.
I'm surprised more people aren't overjoyed simply because this is such a cool experiment. I am going to enjoy the ride...at least SOME games are going to be awesome.
I think everyone still underestimates:
1) Shaq probably has the highest motivation/results ratio of anyone in the league. He can be rejuvenated for short spurts, which is all the Suns need. He's looked like shit because Miami is shit and he really can't make himself care with no hope of a result.
2) Shaq has never played on this kind of team. This has never been done, so I'm not sure where everyone's certainty comes from that it won't. There's no previous data to look at.
3) He's a good passer. On a great passing team. Amare might well break the rim with the dunks he's going to get.
4) Marion is an excellent defender, but Phoenix's defense still sucked. All good teams have multiple scoring options. Marion's defense only determined which player scored, not whether the team scored. I don't see this getting much worse.
Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas would have been the best, I think, except I'm not sure about the length of Wallace's deal.
Same length as Shaq's deal. I'd want Noah, not Thomas. But, as a Chicago fan pointed out to me elsewhere, that would mean trading basically all Chicago's post players for yet another 6'7" SF.
Ford wrote that column lit up on crack. Most of the trades he suggested were either poor Marion replacements, poor Shaq replacements, or value trades. None of these would be help the Suns in the playoffs (especially against the Spurs or now-big Lakers).
Shaq isn't too old (yet). With our great trainers, he should be feeling a lot healthier and a lot more motivated. Both Nash and Hill came to the Suns after many considered them to be washed up, and they have truly excelled in a run-and-gun game.
Keeping Thomas would have been nice, but that wouldn't have been enough. The Lakers, the Jazz, and the rest of the West have improved but we haven't. Something had to be changed, or Nash's final years would have been wasted, never going to the Finals.
Shaq also provides a few intangibles. He should improve the locker room chemistry, enjoys great popularity, and may sell enough jerseys to get Sarver to pony up for a nice 13th man.
SCMT,
Noah is great young player, but he's still learning a lot and this team is really building itself for the playoffs for only the next 1-2 years. After that, we probably lose Nash and Shaq and we have to rebuild around Amare, Bell, Barbosa (hopefully he learns how to play point by then), and maybe Diaw.
With that in mind, we picked up someone built for the half-court, with lots of playoff experience, who can get away with throwing elbows (let's hope TD wears a mouthguard) who can mentor Amare.
it was probably attractive to Phoenix that Shaq and Nash will expire at the same time.
Bell's contract, too.
Meaning the Suns will have $38 million in cap space in the summer of 2010 - just in time for what many are calling the best free-agent class in NBA history: LeBron James (25!), Dwyane Wade (27), Chris Bosh (26), Carlos Boozer (28), Deron Williams (26) and Andrew Bynum (22).
I love(d) the Suns, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa and Shawn Marion, but I can't root for them now.
I fully admit to having a fully-blown case of Shaq Derangement Syndrome. I've loathed him since the ridiculous calls that went his way in the Trail Blazers-Lakers 2000 Western Conference Championship series.
The refing was so bad there should have been a criminal investigation.
The refing was so bad there should have been a criminal investigation.
Sympathy: none.
During last year's playoff series against San Antonio, the Suns encountered officiating so bad there was a criminal investigation, followed by a plea of guilty.
Btw, Donaghy is sentenced two weeks from Monday.
there was a criminal investigation, followed by a plea of guilty
And it turned out to be a rogue ref, acting alone, with no involvement from any other officials or the league. Sounds sort of familiar, doesn't it?
He was involved in the horribly (really, truly horribly) reffed Game 3, including a phantom, late, crazy foul that occurred near the baseline and was whistled from half-court.
"The refing was so bad there should have been a criminal investigation.
Sympathy: none.
During last year's playoff series against San Antonio, the Suns encountered officiating so bad there was a criminal investigation, followed by a plea of guilty.
Btw, Donaghy is sentenced two weeks from Monday."
Why no sympathy? I love the Suns, I supported them last year in the playoffs, and I agree they fell victim to crap refing.
My problem isn't with the Suns - it is with Shaq and the way that the rules - like traveling, double dribble, charging and 3-in-the-key - don't seem to apply to him.
The 2000 game 7 between Portland and LA was a textbook example of bad refing, where the star was favored over the squad player, and the big-time team over the upstart.
I agree with Ford that Jermaine O'Neal would have been a better fit than Shaq. He's a better player now, too. I also like the Chicago deal, with either Noah or Thomas. Kirilenko would be strange -- as somebody said, he's bascially a lower-middle-class man's Marion. He blocks more shots and he's better with the ball in his hands, but he's not as good on the boards or as an on-ball defender and he doesn't even match Marion's average-ish outside shooting. The trade for New Jersey's entire team is intriguing. The other trades don't make much sense for PHX.
Apart from that, isn't it illegal or something to copy and paste an entire article into the comments?
you notice how great teams like MJ and bulls never have to blame bad reffing for their failure to win (though they did complain they were robbed in game 7 against knicks w/o MJ)? great teams win out, regardless. if it's close enough a few calls -- or even a few suspensions -- are what keep you from advancing, that's your fault. quit whining about horry's little love tap to nash. the suns had other chances to win that series, didn't take them.
tms,
I love Noah as a Sun, but Wallace is a smaller version of Shaq with less offensive ability.
The Nets deal would leave the Suns with a lot of pieces they wouldn't need and probably wouldn't play (because of D'Antoni's tight rotation).
The Suns needed a real C to play in the half court and they got one. We'll see if we can get him back in shape, but I think it's looking promising (and yes, the KoolAid is delicious).
They're still looking for a good wing-defender for the 13th man and hopefully they'll spend a couple of bucks (now that they'll be selling a lot more jerseys) and use their MLE to get Marion-lite. Trades for Artest, Iguodala, and Green all sound great, but they're unlikely to happen (almost as unlikely as the Suns trading Marion for an old fatty like Shaq).
dj superflat,
MJ got tons (tons!) of calls. He was great, but he didn't have to follow the same rules as the rest of the mortals.
The mechanics of the Suns-Spurs series aside, you can't deny that basketball is a very dynamic game and momentum plays a huge factor. Minor changes (let alone big ones) can have a huge effect on the way a game is played. Any sort of lead that can be built up over the course of the first three quarters can be erased in the 4th. In this light, the officiating of a game (if a game is called tight or loose, allowed to be played physical or not) can have a huge influence on a game, and a single play (the 5th foul or a play that results in injury) can make a huge difference.
The only way to play to remove the chance of officiating determining the outcome of a game is to completely and utterly destroy your opponent. In a competetive and exciting NBA playoff series, this hardly ever (and shouldn't ever) be a possibility.
you notice how great teams like MJ and bulls never have to blame bad reffing for their failure to win (though they did complain they were robbed in game 7 against knicks w/o MJ)?
You set forth an opinion and then proceed to undercut it IN THE SAME SENTENCE!
Well done. Really, bravo.
my fairly obvious point is that you almost never hear about some great team being robbed by the refs. e.g., did derek fisher really get off his shot in .4? you don't hear much about it, because the spurs realize you have to take it, rather than expect it to be given to you. and they also realize that shot didn't end the series, they had chances to come back from the loss, but didn't.
there's no hue and cry about some foul from some great lakers/celts series, etc. most great athletes recognize that there are no excuses if you lose.
e.g., so the suns lost one game due to suspensions (and it's questionable whether the suns/nash should be absolved of all responsiblity for the suspensions). did that lose them the next game with everyone back?
i'll casually state that, e.g., the kings got robbed in game 7 against lakers (worst officiating i've ever seen). but woulda/coulda/shoulda gets you nowhere. if you're good enough, it shouldn't be up to the refs. if you have your chance, take it, stop whining, etc.
and btw, what i said didn't undercut it my claim -- almost no one remembers those fouls or cares, because the bulls won 6 rings, no one's running around claiming it really should be 7 because of that foul.
what's even funnier about the suns complaint is that some just assume they would have made it to the finals, maybe won. yeah, that worked out so well for the mavs when they got by the spurs on a bonehead foul by manu (you don't see spurs claiming it really should be 5 rings because that was a dumb foul). the suns very easily could have found a way to lose, just as they almost continually do when playing the spurs (which likely explains some of the shaq trade).
i realize this is tiresome, sorry.
According to the LA Times this morning, the odds of the Suns winning the championship got better after the deal. So although I'm with almost everyone here in not being able to see how this could possibly be a good move, if you believe in Teh Betting Markets you should figure Steve Kerr must know something we don't.
Petey: we need you, most these people don't watch the NBA.
Feel bad for Big Al tonight, they should've won.
Leon Powe is interesting going forward.
What are these magical "medicines" that the Suns trainers possess that allow injured players to magically heal, which other teams lack?
Hmmmm...
The Arizona analogy is John McCain = Shaquille O'Neal. Eight years ago, maybe it might have been a good move; now, not so much.
nbt,
The Suns trainers are great at rehabbing and training to prevent injury (including core training, etc). Examples of their fine work include
(1) Keeping Steve healthy despite a congenital back condition.
(2) Helping Amare become the first really successful recipient of microfracture knee surgery.
(3) Helping Grant Hill be relatively healthy after a career plagued by injuries.
Maybe there is a little homer-ism in saying that they're the best, but they are pretty darn good.
looking at the standings this morning, Phoenix faces Houston as a probable first round matchup (Houston and Golden State have favorable schedules down the stretch, Denver appreciably tougher, and Portland impossibly harder). Shaq gets up for his games against Yao. He's not a big fan of Damphier or Kobe, either. If anything can rouse the Diesel, this would be it.
Comments closed February 22, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
Hey, there is nothing I enjoy more than clicking on a link to an ESPN Insider column. Maybe a quick summary for those of us who don't feel like subsidizing ABC?
Posted by Col Bat Guano | February 8, 2008 3:09 PM