Mike Huckabee wins Kansas decisively. Of course as we've learned from Thomas Frank and Kathleen Sebelius, the Kansas GOP activist class has become unusually wingnutty in recent years so it's not exactly a huge surprised. Still, base resistance to John McCain remains striking. Meawhile, it's a reminder that a candidate launched into the mainstream by his strong showing in Iowa isn't quite the Dixie regional candidate he's sometimes portrayed as.
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Coronation Interrupted
09 Feb 2008 04:23 pm
Comments (19)
Yes, this will be a *gigantic* problem for McCain.
...Except that everyone seems to think that McCain will just make Huckabee his VP, completely solving that problem, at least with respect to most of the Republican/conservative/Evangelical base.
I'd hope that the Democrats could solve some of their own internal problems in such an amicable fashion, but that's not clear from the blogsite commentary.
Amazing how you're ready to point out the activist class in the GOP and how they dominate caucuses. Too bad you can't just follow the breadcrumbs back to the Obama connection there.
Amazing how you're ready to point out the activist class in the GOP and how they dominate caucuses. Too bad you can't just follow the breadcrumbs back to the Obama connection there.
Obama is riding off activists? I thought he was a Broderite sleeper agent implanted into the Democratic Party by the Independent Collective.
I don't think people thought Huckabee's appeal was strictly Southern. It's also evangelical and there is a strong base of evangelical voters running down the center of the nation - from Iowa to Nebraska, Kansas Missouri Arkansas, and throughout the old Confederate South. It doesn't really matter, even an anti-McCain movement can't stop McCain at this point. If the conservatives are committed to running a guerilla campaign from now to the nomination against McCain - they'll have to pull off some wins in Virginia and Maryland (Southern states) and try to poach off Texas and Ohio. It won't stop McCain but it would wound him terribly.
It's my understanding that there were only 15,000 people who participated in the caucus today.
That sounds to me awfully less than people voting for Republicans in Kansas.
I believe its important to remember a few points:
1. This is a caucus process, which by nature measure intensity (more than depth) of enthusiasm. E.g., Ron Paul received over 11% of the vote.
2. Kansas Republicans have a historical problem (usually via the primary process) of nominating by small turnout extremists who the typical GOP voter who only shows up on Election Day rejects (hence, the Democratic Governor, or the 50-50 GOP/Democratic Congressional delegation).
3. The caucus was held AFTER McCain gained an unassailable majority of delegates, thus driving down participation by pro-McCain caucusers who saw no point in bothering. As Kansas Senator Sam Brownback remarked, "Well, this is almost over so why go to it?"
4. The caucus was held early (some Wichita sites began admitting people at 8:30 a.m.) on a Saturday morning.
5. In a thoroughly Republican state, the total number of votes cast at the GOP caucus today is significantly less that those cast in the Democratic caucus Tuesday for Obama alone (even though the weather was quite pleasant today but Democratic caucus goers had to get out in sleet/snow conditions at night.) This shows a significant lack of interest by Republican voters.
All in all, this seems to have been little more than a process of getting the church buses out moving the faithful around one day early.
Not that you said as much Matt, but Larry Bartels largely debunked Franks' 'Kansans voting against their economic interests' by demonstrating that what happened was that Kansas wealth grew and that the working/middle classes still voted for Dems in about the same numbers.
Few people realize this, so I just wanted to point it out.
"Meawhile, it's a reminder that a candidate launched into the mainstream by his strong showing in Iowa isn't quite the Dixie regional candidate he's sometimes portrayed as."
Looking back at the 1850s, you might recall "Bleeding Kansas". Kansas was a border state back in the civil war era, so it's "border dixie" now.
Mike Huckabee:
He's Country AND Western!
Callimaco writes: "Huckmentum!"
Hucktooey!
We already knew he had the creationist vote.
Hucktooey!
Huckwash!
Tractarian - the proposition that Huckabee will win something like 85% of the remaining delegates, let alone from such states as Washington, Oregon, Ohio, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Virginia, Maryland, or Puerto Rico, appears in the dictionary under the definition for "delusional."
Huckabee has yet to win any contest in a state dissimilar to his own state of Arkansas. McCain has won races in every region.
McCain will gain the required numbers of delegates to lock-in the GOP nomination. He is unassailable and everyone knew that by about 11 p.m. Tuesday.
Huck is currently beating McCain 48-37 in Louisiana with about a quarter of the vote in (none of the urban areas have reported, though).
Huck didn't campaign a lick in Louisiana, but under the state's rules, unless he gets over fifty percent, he gets no pledged delegates whatsoever. There was a caucus a couple weeks ago where delegates were selected, most of whom, seemingly will support McCain. Yet they are unpledged as well.
It will be delicious to see the media declare Huck the "winner" in LA, if his lead holds up, further embarrassing Str8 Tawlk.
Huckleberry's winning in Washington, too. Eeesh.
Looks to me like McCain might lose to Ron Paul in WA too.
It's all about the VP slot. If Huck dropped out now, he would be forgotten by the convention. By showing delegate strength, Huck's increasing pressure on McCain to add him to the ticket.
Comments closed February 23, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
Huckmentum!
Posted by Callimaco | February 9, 2008 4:32 PM