These are the precincts in Maine that have reported so far. No huge surprises in the data, but I'd say this looks good for Obama. He's winning the Bangor area, which is kind of a swing region between metro Maine and backwoods Maine, the fancy-pants set from Bar Harbor hasn't reported yet and that big swatch of territory in the West where no votes have been counted yet and HRC may do well contains very few people (and they'll have trouble going anywhere in the terrible weather) so it should be hard to make up ground there.
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Mapping Maine
10 Feb 2008 05:25 pm
Comments (35)
Good news, then. I can't wait to see Ambinder swallow his sudden Clintonian bias.
Maybe I'm reading the map wrong. It looks like most of the results are from the outlying towns in the southwest of the state, and good results for Obama there are good news.
The cities haven't voted yet, so most of the bulk numbers are still to come.
Indeed, so far Obama has done well in rural areas, except where they are filled with Southern Baptists--but I assume Maine doesn't qualify.
Interestingly, according to the CNN page, only 68% of precincts ever reported in the 2/2 Republican caucuses. Can that be right, and what does it mean?
Obama may win Maine, but it really doesn't matter at all. It's a caucus and these are automatically victories for him despite Hillary and Bill campaigning very heavily in Maine and running ads and despite George Mitchell and John Baldacci both endorsing Clinton. The important thing is that it doesn't matter.
Kshay - if Washington is any model, the Republicans don't actually count all the votes. They stop counting when the candidate they want to win is ahead.
Count all the votes! Huckmania 08!
Is this self-reported data, or official data?
As I read the expectations game, the MSM is likely to play Maine as a big deal, either way.
That is, as usual, Obama has failed to work the refs nearly as effectively as Clinton, and a state that's pretty favorable to Clinton is classed as a toss-up.
Of course, if Obama manages to out-organize Clinton and take Maine out from under her campaign, he should reap the benefits in positive press. But he'll have had to pull a relatively big upset to do it.
And if Clinton wins, which is still my prediction, she'll get the credit. Her campaign is excellent at playing the media.
From what I saw of the Sunday shows, Clinton supporters are simultaneously dismissing caucuses as unfair and undemocratic, and yet also arguing for the importance of superdelegates.
Obviously, Clinton needs to win Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas and at least one of those wins needs to be big. I would like think that she will not try to bag this thing by claiming that the problematic votes of MI, FL, and superdelegates are somehow more valid than the votes of caucus-goers.
Obama still ahead by the same margin with 369 of 626 in.
Are the CNN numbers correct?
59% reporting and that accounts for only 2300 state delegates? That's an extremely low count, unless those were almost all mini-precincts, or unless Maine allocates delegates at about 1/10 the rate of other states.
DivGuy,
Maine allocates 3500 state delegates. They send 24 pledged delegates and 10 unpledged delegates to the national convention.
DivGuy - CBS, at least, has the same numbers. Perhaps it's some combination of the two - mostly smaller precincts, and a lower ratio.
So I'm bowled over with surprise at how well Obama is doing in Maine, that he's winning caucuses up and down the state and has broken out of the Portland/Bangor strongholds and into the rural areas. Here's a Google Maps breakdown I got off DKos:
However, the other surprise is hearing Matt's snappy, extremely accurate "lay of the land" paragraph about Maine. Well done, sir, that's the only summary I've read this cycle that actually seemed to have a clue about our state and its people.
This really is great news for the Clinton campaign!!
The Google Maps breakdown, as I understand it, is not based on towns that have actually reported. The town by town breakdown isn't available yet. It is, instead, based on self reporting, and is basically meaningless.
Tommy,
Is there anything that isn't good news for the Clinton campaign?
I just think it was sneaky of the person setting up the Google Maps page that Obama-leaning locales get blue pushpins, while Clinton-leading locales get red pushpins.
As an Obama supporter, I'm hardly offended, but I'm unclear on how this is set up: are the colors the same for everyone? Could less-loaded colors have been assigned?
Ah, well, looks like another good night for my candidate.
Yeah, good summary from Matt. Used to live in Maine. I'd expect Lewiston to be HRC territory and I don't yet see much coming out of there. But then, I'd expect Fairfield to be HRC territory too, and it didn't work out that way today . . .
Hey Matt - What's the name of that town where your family's summer house is? How has it swung?
My small Cumberland Co. town -- 7000 souls, almost 65% R, 35% D by registration, broke 8-8. Turnout was 150, the biggest in 20 years (I can't vouch for before that). Both campaigns had out-of-state workers in the caucus, so it was a full-court press.
Did Jessie Jackson win the Maine Caucuses in 84 and 88?
DM - No, Gary Hart did. Hillary is Walter Mondale! That's the winning message, I'm sure.
NBC has called it for Obama.
NBC declared Obama the winner on Nightly News.
Fancy-pants set?!? Only in summer, Matt. Only in summer.
Anyway, Silverbird the elder just returned from caucusing in Bar Harbor where Obama apparently won 3 to 1.
Maine, thanks for all your hope.
So by my calculations there have been seven voting days in the primary campaign so far, and we've yet to have a day where Hillary wins more delegates than Obama.
58-41 with 70% reporting.
It now looks like Obama may well rack up 9 victories over an 11 day period (with Wisconsin maybe the only real wild card). So here's the question:
While we all know that "momentum" in these contests is overrated, doesn't it seem likely that that many states (plus DC) going for Obama, with no Clinton victories breaking it up, and many of them blowouts, will have an effect on the voters on 3/4? Yes, yes, many of them are caucuses, and Obama was expected to win most of them going in. But, even so, especially to a typical low/medium information voter, that really looks like a wave breaking for Obama. And shouldn't that make Clinton very, very nervous?
Let's say the above scenario comes to pass, and the Obama takes Ohio and Clinton takes Texas. Could Clinton come back from that? Her only hope at that point might be my old state, PA. But even if Clinton wins there, after losing almost everywhere else after super tuesday, that would not seem to be enough. And with that tide I could see PA going for Obama. Either way, when the dust settles, I see Obama with at least a 200 lead in committed delegates. And there is no way in the world that Clinton can overcome that with super delegates.
For the first time, I think I'm really seeing an Obama victory.
The news of Clinton rearranging campaign managers won't bode well in a string of Obama victories, either. Spin it how you will, but that sort of thing sounds like "we're in trouble, and we're desperately trying to figure it out."
I'm sorry, but did I just read the phrase, "metro Maine"?
Does Obama have union endorsements in Ohio?
The only way he wins there is by either shifting the voting pool so the demographics are more favorable to him (increasing AA and under 30 turnout) or cutting in to her supporters. I doubt even a string of wins could shift that many women who are voting for Clinton for historic reasons but maybe he can gain some white working class men. March 4th is a long time away.
If Obama wins PA he should get the nomination the next day.
I'm sorry, but did I just read the phrase, "metro Maine"?
It's all relative, in this case, relative to Sherman Station....
Comments closed February 24, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
I assumed Obama would continue to do great in the backwoods - he won all of rural NH, too.
The questions are the cities and the Boston exurbs, which really haven't reported yet. Maine's cities are much more favorable to Obama than New Hampshire's, mainly because Portland is nothing like Manchester. but the main point is, I don't think good rural numbers for Obama should be a surprise.
Posted by DivGuy | February 10, 2008 5:37 PM