As everyone knows, Hillary Clinton has lost a whole bunch of recent contests because their caucus format disenfranchises her core constituents. Thus, when you turn to a place like Washington, DC with its primary, she's in better shape. Indeed, when you consider that DC's median household income of $40,000 is below the national household median, 20 percent of our residents are below the poverty line, and that there are only 86 adult men here for every 100 adult women, one would expect a tribune of the working class like Clinton to do extremely well here. After all, those are citywide statistics, and one can expect the ranks of registered Democrats to have an even more downscale and female slant than this.
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Playing Dumb
12 Feb 2008 08:27 am
Comments (56)
Re " there are only 86 adult men here for every adult woman,"
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Is the Hillary campaign the only one who's playing dumb?
Matthew, while Obama is at an obvious disadvantage to Clinton in the DC area, I think the gains he could possibly make in Virginia and Maryland will really be the story of the day, offsetting any losses he experiences in the nation's capital.
there are only 86 adult men here for every adult woman
You mean 100 adult women, I think. I hope.
I bet its a happy day when things line up, for one of those 86, with that lady.
I bet its a happy day when things line up, for one of those 86, with that lady.
Seems to me that, of the original post and the first two commenters, only one is playing dumb.
And I second DivGuy's point.
I'm with Al. The large African-American population really ought to be mentioned in the post.
Yes, Hillary should kick-ass in the DC Primary after checking out those Demographics.
We all know Virginia wont count because it is a red state and I'm sure there are other reasons too. Please ignore the Dem Governor and Senator Webb.
Maryland, though, should count since it is a closed (only-Dems) Primary. It is a blue state so it should count.
I haven't figured out yet why Maryland will end up not counting. It must be the same reason why Connecticut and Delaware don't count.
Do the white people there go to school too long and drink too many lattes? Is that why they don't count? I'm so confused!
DC won't count because it's not a state (retroactively apply that to the V.I.) It would be unconstitutional for it to count.
Kristi: I think you will find that some Maryland residents are black. At least that is my understanding from watching The Wire. That seems reason enough for the state not to count.
There's also this extremely favorable metric working in Hillary's favor in DC:
Black voters support Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in poll
By James Gordon Meek
Daily News Washington Bureau
Wednesday, November 28th 2007
WASHINGTON - Black voters are betting on Hillary Clinton over her Democratic rival Barack Obama to fix Iraq, Social Security and health care, a new poll shows.
On those three key issues cited as most important by the 750 African-Americans polled, Clinton's ratings are nearly double Obama's, the only black person running for President.
And if, by some improbable chain of events, Obama becomes the nominee, that won't count either, because ... um ... Clinton's called 'bagsie'?
DC would, of course, leave us with only two possible explanations: Obama is uniquely great and Clinton is uniquely sucky, *or* African-Americans have been persuaded to vote for an African-American candidate based on a spurious racial appeal.
Maryland doesn't count because of the perennial "too many black people" problem. MD is 30% Black.
I was wondering about how Hillary could convince everyone that Virginia and Maryland don't count. VA is more populous that her #1 Upset of the Commonwealth, although it is far blacker (20% vs. 7%). Maryland is slightly smaller but it has roughly the same population as highly contested Missouri. Somehow, we will find that neither counts!
For those of you who missed it (sweaty guy, I'm looking at you)
Matt was being sarcastic
It's interesting that Hillary is now giving up on states with large African-American populations. Obviously she knew that she needed to get a sizeable number of them to vote for her to win a lot of these primaries. brucds's comment above shows that in November of last year, she was doing quite well with them. So what happened? South Carolina. They didn't expect such a turn against them - but they waited too long to repudiate the words of Robert Johnson, then they tried to marginalize Obama as the black candidate - all that combined with the fracas about MLK. Another example of the inconsistent message of her campaign. Obviously her plan was to continue courting and then getting a lion's share of African-American voters, but somewhere along the line they ceded them to Obama. Bad move.
I think caucuses do limit the number of people involved, but it's in a very good way. They most certainly don't disenfranchise them.
They're open, anyone can participate, and if the issues are important, you make the time. It's not disenfranchising anyone, except those too dumb or scared to participate. 2 Hours one day out of every 4 years is nothing, and you can easily get out of work early by planning ahead.
Basically, it weeds out the Idiots that are one issue voters. It weed out those who vote just on a name, with no real reason or rhyme.
You have to stand up in front of your peers and let them know the reasons for your vote, and you're going to look damn stupid if the only reason is "she's a woman" "he's black" "Bill will be back". It helps dissipate identity politics, and forces real policy issues to come to the forefront. It's much better then the zombie pulling of a level that primaries entail.
It keeps the idiot voters away, because they know they vote on feeling alone, and they don't want to back up their arsine ideas about the candidates.
Posted by brucds | February 12, 2008 9:10 AM
There's also this extremely favorable metric working in Hillary's favor in DC:
Black voters support Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in poll
By James Gordon Meek
Daily News Washington Bureau
Wednesday, November 28th 2007
WASHINGTON - Black voters are betting on Hillary Clinton over her Democratic rival Barack Obama to fix Iraq, Social Security and health care, a new poll shows.
On those three key issues cited as most important by the 750 African-Americans polled, Clinton's ratings are nearly double Obama's, the only black person running for President.
Are you freaking kidding? Trying to justify a 2 month old poll on the black electorate before Hillary and Bills huge adcenture circa SC & NH?
If thats what you believe, it's goin to be so much sweeter when we see the exit polls. Clinton shot herself in the foot with Bill. She increased her Latino vote, but it looks lik she didn't account for the negatives it produced everywhere else.
For those of you who missed it (sweaty guy, I'm looking at you)
Matt was being sarcastic
I got it, I was just playing along. Obviously I could use some work on projecting my own sarcasm.
I blame it on my glands.
Hillary will campaign to the convention. She will bitterly fight for every last vote. I like the Clintons, and that is one thing I like about them. But this isn't an election against a Republican, it is a party primary.
There is no mathematical way for HRC to win pledged delegates. She is not going to win Ohio 60-40. She will probably lose, like Rudy lost in Florida. She has done the math, like we all have done the math.
There is no possibility of shenanigans at the convention. Dean and Brazille have let that be known.
Any other candidate would bow out gracefully tomorrow. The longer Hillary drags this out, the more her legacy (and Bill's) gets tarnished.
what percentage of the electorate in DC is black? That seems to trump all the other characteristics.
The African-American percentage of the population has been sinking for decades, and at the last census (2000) it was I believe just about exactly 50%. Interestingly, the same census showed the white population at around 30%, IIRC. There is a significant and growing Hispanic (mostly Central American) population that makes up much of the balance.
I think Matt's point stands.
"African-Americans have been persuaded to vote for an African-American candidate based on a spurious racial appeal."
That's possible. Certainly one of the most spurious racial appeals I've seen in this campaign was Hillary's bizarre speech in Selma where she mimiced, badly, a black preacher and a southern accent. (Obama is capable of actually giving a great sermon in a black church - demonstrated most recently on Jan. 20 at Ebenezer Baptist in Atlanta - and while it's obviously learned, it's been learned well.) It was akin to watching a minstrel show. Another spurious racial appeal was when the Clintons' Best Black Billionaire Buddy Bob Johnson recycled the innuendo about Obama's drug activities in "the community" while St. Hillary was selflessly comin' on down to help the po' black folks with their problems. Then there was the "black guys always win South Carolina" thing from Bill. On Obama's part, he seems to have missed the boat on the "spurious racial appeals." All we get from him is this "come together as one" stuff. Of course, like that remarkable success story in Democratic presidential politics, Al Sharpton, he does "happen" to be black. Since Hillary started this thing with the "black vote" overwhemlingly in her pocket, she appears to have lost it the old fashioned way. She earned her rejection over months of campaigning toe-to-toe with the Illinois Senator.
For those of you who missed it (sweaty guy, I'm looking at you)
Matt was being sarcastic
I got it, I was just playing along. Obviously I could use some work on projecting my own sarcasm.
I blame it on my glands.
OK, found the census link for DC. I wasn't off by too much.
32% non-Hispanic white
8% Latino
57% black
53% female
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/11000.html
ObamaRama: Have you ever heard of irony ?
plum writes "The large African-American population really ought to be mentioned in the post."
Nonsense. What proof do we have African-Americans are more likely to vote for Barack rather than Hillary? Only the exit polls. And as we learned from New Hampshire, exit polls can be very wrong. I'm sure Matthew would agree with me here.
No way, Gee, that adds up to 150% percent.
Matt was being sarcastic
Are you sure? Was he being sarcastic yesterday in his puzzlement over why Hillary's advisor would say in 1999 that Hillary is conservative, or in his correction of his lightbulb "error"? So difficult to tell these days.
May I just say that a guy who calls himself Swaty Guy" and talks about his glands in exactly NOT what I need to see while I am eating my breakfast!
Al, I don't think Matthew was being sarcastic. As I already said there's really no proof that African Americans are more likely to vote for Obama except for polls and exit polls, but as we saw in New Hampshire polls are unreliable. Your race argument was therefore invalid.
that adds up to 150% percent.
Very funny.
I think the Clintons really been trying to go the racially divisive route, but that their tin ear towards race in modern politics might have been exposed. brucds notes Hillary's weird accent shift in a speech at a black church above. i don't think that's racist, but possibly a sign that she thought she was more accepted in the black community than she really was? Either way, her husband could have pulled that off with a bit more panache.
And yet it was Bill who, after days of HRC's campaign denying the SC primary was a white/black thing, confirmed afterwards that, yes, it was in fact a white/black thing. That comment more than anything leads me to wonder if Bill and Hillary's idea of race is somehow dated. They don't understand that many blacks may not be looking for white politicians to fight for them anymore, now that a perfectly viable black candidate has made himself apparent, and has - gasp! - presidential qualities that matter even more than his skin color! This isn't the 1960s, or even the 1980s. But I'm just a latte-sippin' white guy, so what do I know.
I apologize for the multiple postings above, btw. I also blame that on my glands.
This whole "our supporters have to work that's why we lose caucuses" spin from the Hillary camp is laughable. Her most hardcore supporters are a bunch of blue hairs who don't have anything better to do than watch Judge Judy and eat jello.
I meant "I think the Clintons really haven'tbeen trying to go the racially divisive route...
I also blame that one on etc, etc..
I've been an Obama sympathizer since 04 but Hillary really lost my vote when she explained that she couldn't win a Caucus because women were too meek to hold to their opinions in front of men. Damned if I want an insecure, needy president. I mean to replace the one we have.
bill can get away with "black speech" because it's southern speech. and bill is southern. basically black speech is southern speech or northern-southern inflected speech. sorta like soul food is just southern food.
Can someone tell me when the word "downscale" moved from marketing to politics? I heard for the first time on the News Hour this week and thought it was a slip of the tongue but the whole panel was using it before long. It's a pretty tactless description, just better than "lower class".
I'm really confused now. Are the people who are saying Matt wasn't being sarcastic playing along, and therefore are actually acknowledging that he was being sarcastic? Just in case anyone is still wondering, here's a hint: the title of the post is "Playing Dumb."
Also, I hope whoever said there is no evidence blacks support Obama because polls are unreliable was playing dumb as well.
I just realized that Maryland won't count because it's shaped kinda like a submachine gun. HELLO - the black candidate always wins states shaped like thug gear! Be afraid, white America...
2 Hours one day out of every 4 years is nothing, and you can easily get out of work early by planning ahead.
What planet do you live on? I am lucky enough to have a job with some flexibility in work hours. For most people, though, if they have to take any time off from their regular working hours, that's one less day of sick leave that they have available in case they are sick, or their kid is sick and they have to pick up their kid from day care, etc.
Unless they take a vacation day -- and ya only gots 10 of those.
Of course, too many black people in Maryland.
Well, at least Hillary is kicking ass in all the white states ... oh, oops, nevermind.
Kristi,
She would if those states were white enough.
Aaron - "I was wondering about how Hillary could convince everyone that Virginia and Maryland don't count. VA is more populous that her #1 Upset of the Commonwealth, although it is far blacker (20% vs. 7%). Maryland is slightly smaller but it has roughly the same population as highly contested Missouri."
But remember, Missouri didn't count so maybe that is why Maryland doesn't count. They are similar states and Missouri got called too late (flipped actually) so it doesn't count, therefore
Maryland = Missouri
Missouri = Doesn't Count
Maryland = Doesn't count
I knew that logic class in college would come in useful sometime. However, I went to school for too long so I don't count.
Matt, you're way off. Obama will win DC, but it won't count. People compare Obama's oratory style to MLK's, and people here really liked MLK's 'I have a dream' 1963 speech here in DC.
" there are only 86 adult men here for every adult woman,"
No, Matt had this right the first time and is the exact reason why I don't have a girlfriend.
Obama-Rama is obviously a dipshit.
Probably figured she wouldn't get Feingold's endorsement, so why bother?
Silly question. DC is black. Blacks vote for the brother, because he's a brother. White libs vote for the brother, because he's a dazzling, mart, intelligent, non-threatening brother. Replace Obama with any other 46 year old man of a different race, and Hillary wins.
Obama's doing well in two places: where the black vote is greater than 50% of the voting electorate, and where it is tiny.
From an English point of view, I'm amazed how anti-Hillary so many people seem to be. Surely she can't be as bad as so many people are making out?
I hate this. I wish King George were back. This independence thing is just too much work!
Hillary Clinton has done well in some of the places where she's done well (at least in the later elections) in large part because of voters like white cornerback. Fortunately I think the percent of the population that rejoices with glee when they get to use "brother" as a term of contempt is decreasing.
I actually think my generation (I'm 37) is the last for whom racism as it once was will exist. The racism from later generations, while it may still be present, isn't tinged with the race-hate of those like wc and some remainder of those aged 30-45.
Hillary Clinton is going to lose not because she's a woman and a black candidate suffers less prejudice than does a female one. She's going to lose because of who she is and how many people in the country can't help but hate her.
"From an English point of view, I'm amazed how anti-Hillary so many people seem to be. Surely she can't be as bad as so many people are making out?"
Imagine Lady Thatcher without the charm, and you should begin to get the idea.
Imagine Lady Thatcher without the charm, and you should begin to get the idea.
Lady Thatcher was an incredibly successful politician, notwithstanding her alleged lack of charm. She was the longest-serving British Prime Minister of the 20th century, and she revolutionalized Britain's economy and self-image after the wrecking-ball Labour policies of the 1970s. Hillary should be so lucky.
Enigmon, what did I say that was hateful, or untrue for that matter? Or, god forbid, "racist"? (Are you sure you don't mean to call me a "namby pamby"?) I pointed out that blacks in DC are by and large voting for Obama out of racial solidarity. Are you denying that?
Do I hate black solidarity? Not really, and I find it completely understandable. What I hate is the double-standard: blacks are allowed to be race-conscious, for whites, it is practically a capital crime.
FYI, I'm going to be voting Obama if he gets nominated, as a vote against McCain, against neocon foreign policy and against unfettered Wall Street Plutocracy. And with the hope that maybe, just maybe, if this very, very green 46 year brother actually gets to the White House, ahead of thousands upon thousand of people his own age and higher, just as smart and promising as him, but handicapped by not being the right skin color, that maybe finally, FINALLY, blacks in America will stop whining to themselves, look at who the President is, and realize that the UTTERLY INCREDIBLE opporutnities that exist for individual American blacks who are willing to reject ghetto culture, and do whatever it takes to excel as INDIVIDUAL AMERICANS.
Your brother,
White Cornerback
Comments closed February 26, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
But what percentage of the electorate in DC is black? That seems to trump all the other characteristics.
Posted by Al | February 12, 2008 8:46 AM