New poll has Obama up 50-39, but Wisconsin doesn't count because it's an open primary.
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Polling Wisconsin
12 Feb 2008 01:30 pm
Comments (58)
If Feingold publicly enodorses Obama before the WI primary, Clinton is toast there.
I love how anywhere Clinton loses (and loses badly -- like Washington state, Louisiana -- "doesnt' count".
A loss is a loss.
The media are like sheep, suckling on the daily talking points from Mother Spin.
Yes, definitely, Clinton's general election strength really stands out in states that Democrats don't need to try to win, like California and Massachusetts. In swing states like Wisconsin, it counts against Obama that independents and Republicans are willing to vote for him. Because.. it just does, OK?
Some of you people are acting as if polls, and speculations based on polls, are money in the bank. Calm the fuck down.
Wisconsin doesn't count because it's not NY or CA.
Really, all we need to do is cut and paste that explanation for all the upcoming states, and it explains it all.
Obama will win here in Wisconsin, just like he won neighboring Iowa, Minnesota, and, of course, Illinois. The Milwaukee black vote and the Madison liberal vote will go heavily for Obama. That's where Democrats always make up the difference and carry the state in general elections. The mayor of Milwaukee and the governor of Wisconsin are both Democrats and early Obama supporters, and they will get their org. people out for Obama. Feingold said he will not announce until after the primary, but c'mon--does anyone think he'll endorse Hillary?
So, when Hillary wins VA she will be the comeback kid justlike after NH and Nevada. Shut up!
I'm putting my foot down on Wisconsin. I don't see how the Clinton media strategy can work there. Wisconsin is demographically and procedurally in Clinton's (alleged) wheelhouse--aside from the the closed thing.
It's a primary with white, working class, beer-track voters.
Further, Clinton led by 9 points in at least one poll conducted after super tuesday. Despite all that, there seems to have been no serious effort by the Clinton folks to hold that lead.
If things go as expected today (definitely a big if), I don't see how or why Clinton could survive a Wisconsin loss. Even if the media doesn't hound her out, it seems doubtful the voters of TX and OH will let her back in.
Thank you Scarlett Johansson!
Petey would argue it doesn't count because it's near Illinois.
Today is the first day where I believe Obama has a good chance of winning.
Always thought he could win, especially after Iowa, but just read in the Financial Times that *the* 2 online "trading" sites now have Obama winning 70/30. Not bad odds.
Clinton needs to have impressive vicories in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as people have been saying. I'm hoping Edwards endorses Obama a little before Texas and Ohio, which would get the Obama campaign more jacked than it is right now. That would be huge and hopefully Obama would give Edwards something significant in return.
Obama has proven to be a better candidate than Hillary. There's really no arguing that point, anymore. She could still win the nomination, but it won't be because she ran the better campaign or is a more appealing figure.
Frankly, after decades of seeing the Democratic Party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it's weird to see it getting lucky this way. If Hillary puts some resources into the smaller, caucus states and only loses them 55-45 or avoids the race-baiting in South Carolina and only loses the black vote 65-35, she'd probably be walking away with the nomination.
Mike
Obama "won" Nevada. Her claim of victory was bogus.
Wisconsin doesn't count because there is a University somewhere in the state.
Matt,
Wow. Wasn't it just a couple days ago that you predicted Hillary would win the nomination? Bad timing. I guess the Super Bowl prediction was just a fluke.
So, when Hillary wins VA she will be the comeback kid justlike after NH and Nevada.
Indeed, if she were to (by some madness) win Virginia, she would be a comeback kid, and she would deserve whole heaps of credit for it.
If Obama can't win Virginia, I'm pretty doubtful that he can win the nomination.
By the way, the states that count are as follows:
California
Florida
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
No other states count.
I actually haven't seen a whole lot of dismissing Obama on the "Independent voters dont' count" meme. The Hillary camp has either been quiet about that, or else has argued that she's the one who will really appeal to independents, I think.
Maybe Wisconsin will change that...but I bet they go with "neighboring Illinois" and "didn't campaign there" and maybe "not big enough" instead. Democrats actually seem, in general, to want independent votes this cycle. That's in contrast to the Republicans, who are actively slamming McCain for getting crossover votes, as near as I can tell. It's one of (many) signs that whoever the Dems put up is going to be in a position to do very well in November.
If she really loses Wisconsin by double digits, that seems like it's pretty much got to be game over, doesn't it? Or am I overly hopeful again....
Maybe it doesn't count because Hillary SAYS it doesn't count. With all her experience, who's a better judge?
Wisconsin doesn't count because the people there wear cheese hats on their heads.
It's worth noting that last October, Hillary led in Virginia by 24 points--despite the fact that she's now down by 22. Just as she once led Maine by 36 points and lost it by 20. Hillary was in a position to win all the states after super tuesday. She didn't because she's not running a good campaign.
"Frankly, after decades of seeing the Democratic Party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it's weird to see it getting lucky this way."
Not without the opposition of the establishment and coastal Democratic machines, I might note. Those groups would have us on track to fight a 50+1 election in what should be a Democratic year.
Don't forget Arizona and Oklahoma. She specifically said that those are states that count because Democrats have to be competitive there.
Especially this year with McCain running. I think they are ripe for the picking!
"New poll has Obama up 50-39, but Wisconsin doesn't count because it's an open primary."
I'm reminded of (one of) the great lines from Spinal Tap after one of the concerts is cancelled:
"Don't worry, Boston's not a big college town."
Joe - she specifically said that Oklahoma matters? That's pretty outrageous.
"Wisconsin doesn't count because the people there wear cheese hats on their heads."
This is true. They should be stripped of their electoral votes and possibly citizenship ASAP.
Yeah, look, I'm an Obama supprter and I think things look good for him... but don't call it over until he really has steamrolled his way through the next few weeks. Seeing favorable polls gives me confidence, but there's a long way from favorable polling to Andrew Sullivan's calls for Clinton to concede.
Let's earn our wins in February and then see how far ahead we are after March 4. That's the earliest possible time for Hillary to really be out of it, but look, it's no guarantee. Obama could screw up. Hillary could surge ahead unexpectedly. It could happen. Remember Zogby telling us Kerry was winning on Election Day 2004?
I'm with you, Adam. There's nothing happening right now that says Obama has this thing sewn up. It's easy to sit here and say that the Clinton campaign is doing a terrible job, but, to some degree, I have to think that there is a method to the madness. I don't remember the last time the Clintons lost a campaign and there's a reason they've been so successful despite all the drama. Every day brings new hope for an Obama supporter, but it needs to be tempered with a measure of caution.
It's not a big state.
Wisconsin doesn't count because the NY Giants beat the Green Bay, WI Packers, and then won the Superbowl.
I know that's sarcasm, Matt, but I'd say WI matters more B/C it's an open primary.
I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Obama generally performed better in states with open primaries/caucuses? on balance, the big O has shown he's superior to clinton at bringing independents & moderates into the dem tent.
and isn't that a better indicator of who's a stronger general election candidate? instead of, contra clinton, arguing that registered democratic voters in a primary are a good proxy for general election voters?
Actually, Wisconsin doesn't count because they haven't voted there yet. Right now all we have are favorable poll numbers. Let 'em vote, let Obama win, and then we can start making fun of Clinton's lame explanation for why it doesn't matter. But for now, let's not count our chickens before they've hatched.
Joe - she specifically said that Oklahoma matters? That's pretty outrageous.
Yes, she specifically said that Oklahoma and Texas matter but that North Dakota (two Democratic senators and a Democratic representative) and Alaska (very competitive contests this year against a sitting Republican senator and representative) don't. See here.
and isn't that a better indicator of who's a stronger general election candidate? instead of, contra clinton, arguing that registered democratic voters in a primary are a good proxy for general election voters?
It's really a "have it both ways" scenario they're laying out here. Clinton is dismissing Obama's caucus wins because she claims they're too heavily dominated by Democratic party activists, but the campaign is also dismissing wins amongst independents.
-Virginia doesn't count because it's raining and old ladies will get wet;
-ditto Maryland, except it's snowing
I don't remember the last time the Clintons lost a campaign and there's a reason they've been so successful despite all the drama. Every day brings new hope for an Obama supporter, but it needs to be tempered with a measure of caution.
I agree with Adam and TPH. This is a long, long way from over. But the Obama campaign has good reason to be excited.
Thing is, this isn't Bill Clinton's campaign, it's Hillary's. The idea they hammered away at was that Obama hasn't faced a tough Republican candidate in an election. What Hillary's campaign is demonstrating is that she never faced a tough opponent in a primary. She's had her primary victories handed to her. They thought they'd have it wrapped up by Super Tuesday and when they didn't, the old pros were thrown off their game. "Pride comes before the fall," as they say.
What made me laugh was all of those media reports from Maureen Dowd to Gail Collins to others saying that the Clintons' "hardball" politics had rattled Obama and here he is racking up victory after victory.
I second Adam's caution. Obama had a lot of breaks go his way that weren't a result of his super-galactic strategy powers. The Clinton campaign travails. Bill losing it to the degree he did in South Carolina. The media's love affair with him (OK, that's a mixed blessing).
The point is, sure, he may mapped the trajectory well, but it's not like he's from Oa. It's still a nailbiter.
Whoa. I agree that we shouldn't put too much faith in polls, but the last WI poll had Clinton up by +9, so I'm a bit relieved.
Yeah, I've been stressing caution over the past few days, too. I don't think Wisconsin or Hawaii are in any way locks for Obama, though he does have certain things that should help the states play out in his favor; he'll need to work hard to win them.
I'm pretty concerned about the new SurveyUSA poll showing Clinton up 17 in Ohio, though...
Ohio's not looking too good right now:
Sigh...white women. Am I a misogynist if I suggest that maybe they don't think clearly sometimes?
Hope the gap closes by next month.
Ohio's not looking too good right now:
Sigh...white women. Am I a misogynist if I suggest that maybe they don't think clearly sometimes?
Hope the gap closes by next month.
If Obama's has problems with white women voters in the polls, there is an easy one-word solution: Oprah.
Watch the sexist patter, fellow Obama supporter Fawkes. This old girl will ignore it but many won't. In other news (Wapo timestamped 5:39):
In Virginia, Fairfax County elections chief Margaret K. Luca said turnout was substantial, and voters were asking for Democratic ballots by a margin of 3 or 4 to 1. Virginia allows last-minute crossover voting, despite party affiliation, unlike Maryland or the District.
I've been a long time lurker and for those old commenters, I hate to leave you, but it's time to leave until after the primaries. There's too many new commenters who seem to be haters.
Matt, it's contagious and you seem like you are coming down with it as well. You join Andy S on my list of favorites that have been moved to the "Come Back Later" list.
Hope we can all come back together after the primaries and get a Democrat elected.
Best wishes.
Sheesh, mattsmom, what ever happened to that unconditional love from mom thing? you're not supposed to leave him just because he's started to hang with a bad crowd, and in the end, it's all your fault it happened, anyways. :-)
So..this is where all of you Obama-idiots get together and stroke each other.
How's this for reality. Your man will not be president. Not in this lifetime. You can bash Hillary and women and anybody else you want. You can also continue be as obnoxious and smug as you are.
Most of you don't have a clue about politics. You actually think that the free ride you are getting in the press and with republicans is normal or, worse yet, because Obama is such a "nice guy".
There will be a day, not long from now, when Obama will fall HARD. It will be the result of a whithering, unfair, constant string of attacks and extremely hard-ball politics.
When it happens, just think about me. I'll be smiling.
Come on Wisconsin. Vote for the working class people. Vote for Hillary.
All these bloggers are young, sarcastic college kids who have not a clue.
A vote for Hillary is a vote for the middle class working folks.
Hillary Clinton paid me $65 to post this crap.
Larry I agree with you completely. The press is giving Barack Obama a free ride right now. They have to in order to get him elected. In contrast, they are attacking Hillary at every opportunity. Almost relentlessly. This is just so the vast majority of non thinking Americans will continue to believe all the hype surrounding Obama, and join the media bandwagon. They are supporting a candidate that just sells them words like hope and change and unity. He is another underqualified presidential candidate without substance. Hillary has both the experience and the abililty to make change happen. But if the sheeple elect Obama, they will learn that their media darling will soon be hammered by the same attack machine that Hillary faces now. He will not win the election, so get ready for your new president, John McCain. John McCain by the way will no longer be criticized by the media once Obama is selected. That's what the Republicans are all about. They've had this figured out for a long time. So please, vote for Hillary.
Obama has momentum, but he needs to come close to winning in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Only a big win in Wisconsin and in Hawaii will give him enough delegates to be ahead when the Democratic Party decides to use the Florida and Michigan delegates in Hillary's favor (if Hillary wins Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania where she is now leading by double digits in the polls despite Obama's victories in eight states and Hillary's negative campaigning). One thing is sure: if Hillary wins the nomination, I will either vote for McCain (I'm a registered Democrat) or not vote at all. Principles matter to me. I can't imagine electing someone who flip-flops about the war. Besides, what is the difference between McCain and Hillary? She's friends with him. She authorized the same Bush war. I frankly don't see ANY difference. They both have a lot of experience, and frankly, he seems more likeable than Hillary's stale rhetoric. Eight more years of Hillary's husband sticking cigars into female genitals is not my cup of tea.
Let's have a change, OBAMA '08
Obama has momentum, but he needs to come close to winning in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Only a big win in Wisconsin and in Hawaii will give him enough delegates to be ahead when the Democratic Party decides to use the Florida and Michigan delegates in Hillary's favor (if Hillary wins Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania where she is now leading by double digits in the polls despite Obama's victories in eight states and Hillary's negative campaigning). One thing is sure: if Hillary wins the nomination, I will either vote for McCain (I'm a registered Democrat) or not vote at all. Principles matter to me. I can't imagine electing someone who flip-flops about the war. Besides, what is the difference between McCain and Hillary? She's friends with him. She authorized the same Bush war. I frankly don't see ANY difference. They both have a lot of experience, and frankly, he seems more likeable than Hillary's stale rhetoric.
Let's have a change, OBAMA '08
Karen,
By calling Obama supporters sheeple you are not helping your candidate. Obama may not have as much as national experience but he still has more legislative experience than HRC so please lets not pretend that he is extremely under-qualified.
Larry:
What a ball-less asshole you must be. Does your fatass wife dominate you? Is that the issue?
Please vote for Hillary. Can't you sheeple see that she's the victim here? Women have been put upon so long, it's time for one of us to rise up and put the men in their place. Hillary offer SOLUTIONS!! Look at her 1993 work on healthcare, her Iraq vote to go to war, her support of Bill when he was sticking it to "that women"...c'mon, she's been vetted! Please, please vote for Hillary. My self esteem and self worth as a women depends on it.
Not all of us in Wisconsin where cheese on their heads! I'm from Chicago and moved here because the cost of a home in Chicago was over-the-top $$$.
Yes, there are a few interesting folks here in Wisconsin (to say the least) - but can't you find "interesting" folks pretty much in any state?
Don't knock everyone.
Not all of us in Wisconsin where cheese on their heads! I'm from Chicago and moved here because the cost of a home in Chicago was over-the-top $$$.
Yes, there are a few interesting folks here in Wisconsin (to say the least) - but can't you find "interesting" folks pretty much in any state?
Don't knock everyone.
Not all of us in Wisconsin where cheese on their heads! I'm from Chicago and moved here because the cost of a home in Chicago was over-the-top $$$.
Yes, there are a few interesting folks here in Wisconsin (to say the least) - but can't you find "interesting" folks pretty much in any state?
Don't knock everyone.
Not all of us in Wisconsin where cheese on their heads! I'm from Chicago and moved here because the cost of a home in Chicago was over-the-top $$$.
Yes, there are a few interesting folks here in Wisconsin (to say the least) - but can't you find "interesting" folks pretty much in any state?
Don't knock everyone.
Not all of us in Wisconsin where cheese on their heads! I'm from Chicago and moved here because the cost of a home in Chicago was over-the-top $$$.
Yes, there are a few interesting folks here in Wisconsin (to say the least) - but can't you find "interesting" folks pretty much in any state?
Don't knock everyone.
Not all of us in Wisconsin where cheese on their heads! I'm from Chicago and moved here because the cost of a home in Chicago was over-the-top $$$.
Yes, there are a few interesting folks here in Wisconsin (to say the least) - but can't you find "interesting" folks pretty much in any state?
Don't knock everyone.
Comments closed February 26, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
Awww Mark, there goes the media narrative that Clinton has a good shot in Wisconsin! Just like she had a good shot in WA, ME, and (soon) VA.
I can't wait until the first OH and TX polls come out after the Potomac Primary. Looking at where the last polls were, and how much polls in other states have moved, I'd expect Obama to be trailing by high single digits in Ohio, and mid single digits in TX. Maybe even better. As many others have discussed, we are very rapidly reaching a point where the delegate math simply does not work for Clinton.
Posted by John M. | February 12, 2008 1:37 PM