Spencer Ackerman reports that intelligence experts are worried about retaliatory Hezbollah strikes against American targets in the wake of the mysterious car bomb killing of Imad Mugniyeh, a longtime Hezbollah operative responsible for the 1983 attack on the Marine barracks in Lebanon. At the same time, it remains totally unclear who actually killed the guy.
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Retaliation Coming
13 Feb 2008 10:14 pm
Comments (23)
For the record, this is precisely the sort of story that never gets mentioned in the torture debate:
1. A terrorist leader has just been killed--and that's all we know.
2. Perhaps we did it, perhaps our ally did it, perhaps they'll think we did it, and the odds they'll lash out (and soon) are pretty good.
3. Is that a ticking time bomb? Perhaps it is.
4. Are we justified in or likely to benefit from trying to learn their plans by torturing the first suspected member of the group we can pull of the street? No, we're not.
Nevertheless, once you've agreed that torture is a legitimate tool, the desire to use it to prevent your worst fear in a situation such as this (when you know little, but the ball is clearly in the other team's court) has to be overwhelming.
Robert Fisk doesn't know, but his piece is well worth reading. As always, he's best when writing on the murky politics he's lived around in Lebanon.
That the US response was so fucking gleeful really doesn't help in that regard, though. When you've repeatedly condemned the use of the car bomb as a way to winnow the political field in Lebanon, doing the Snoopy dance over this particular unexpected ignition does convey the impression that car bombs per se aren't the problem, just the people getting into the car.
I hope they don't poison my Super Osama Kulfa Balls.
Just to make my point clear: when a Bad Guy™ is dispatched with a missile fired from a UAV, the technological asymmetry affects the optics, however contentiously.
When a Bad Guy is dispatched with a car bomb, and the Bad Guy's friends either think you did it or that whoever did it is fine by you, said Bad Guys not only have the means to respond in kind, but can, however speciously, claim a certain moral equivalence for retaliation.
There are ways in official language to separate your pleasure with the Bad Guy's demise from a stern disapproval, however bullshit it might be, of the method. For Sean McCormack to say 'one way or the other he was brought to justice' just means that anyone in Beirut that the US considers an ally, and doesn't have the blast wall protection of a US mission, is probably not too happy right now.
Beirut '83 is one of my all-time worst memories. I'm delighted the Mugniyeh is dead. Also, I think it's silly to imagine that Hezbollah or anyone else who uses car bombs would be deterred from doing so if we used a Hellfire missile instead, or is likely to be more our enemy because we relish the fact that a mass murderer has had justice brought to him.
But the point on torture is sound. We don't need it, and McCain has the best statement yet on the subject.
Also, I think it's silly to imagine that Hezbollah or anyone else who uses car bombs would be deterred from doing so if we used a Hellfire missile instead, or is likely to be more our enemy because we relish the fact that a mass murderer has had justice brought to him.
That wasn't my point. My point is related to the torture debate, in that cheering on car bombs brings a large democratic nation down to the level of a bunch of murderous bastards.
Like I said, McCormack could have easily spouted some diplospeak boilerplate, however insincere, along the lines of 'we encourage the Syrian government to conduct a full and thorough investigation, just as we have urge them to cooperate in seeking the truth behind the Hariri assassination and other car bombings in Lebanon'. That's not difficult.
Instead, we got 'yay car bombs, as long as they're against terrorists'. Nice one, Sean. We know that intelligence agencies use dirty methods against enemies. But there are ways to finesse it.
Today's the third anniversary of the Hariri assassination.
pseudo/nc--
Point taken. I like your statement better.
I expect Nasrallah has enough smarts to be interested in exactly WHO did the bombing - and clearly Suspect Number One is Israel - particularly since a number of people, and presumably Nasrallah, believe that several of the Lebanese assassinations are in fact the work of the Israelis. Nobody has given any real evidence that the Hariri assassination was the work of Syria.
So if anybody is at risk of a retaliation, it is the Israelis.
Especially since Hizballah has allegedly suggested recently that they may be taking more Israeli soldiers prisoner a la the events that precipitated the war in 2006.
If this assassination had taken place in Lebanon, it would be more likely the US as well as Israel would be the suspect, since the CIA is known to have been given license by Bush last year to work against Hizballah in Lebanon. And the US is alleged to be working with extremist Sunni Muslim groups in Lebanon to advance that agenda.
I see Wikipedia has some crap in there about this guy Imad Mugniyeh being both a possible "founder of Hizballah" and at the same time an associate of Al Qaeda - which is about as far-fetched as I can imagine. He's also supposed to be an Iranian agent - as well as an associate of Al Qaeda - also far-fetched. The source for this brilliant notion is...guess who...Michael Ledeen.
Right, I'll buy that for a dollar.
Scum bag Dershowitz weighs in over at FrontPage Magazine, saying "But his targeting makes the strongest case for the appropriateness of targeted killing of terrorists who are being harbored by states that support terrorism."
For the record, I don't have a problem with targeted killings, but a car bomb is a stupid way to do it if you have official sanction (I don't mean official sanction in the state you're operating in, I mean official sanction from your own state.)
I'd say the odds are really good that he was killed by Israel - assuming the reports are accurate.
Ah, MSNBC has this:
The Hezbollah-run television station also ran a celebratory obituary for the so-called martyr:
“With pride and honor, we announce the martyrdom of a great resistance leader who joined the procession of Islamic Resistance martyrs,” it reads. “After a life full of Jihad, sacrifices and accomplishments lived with a longing to martyrdom, Islamic Resistance leader Hajj Imad Moghniyeh (Hajj Radwan) was assassinated by Israeli criminal hands. The martyr, may his soul rest in peace, had been a target for the Zionists for more than 20 years.”
Well, that would appear to confirm that Hizballah believes Israel to be responsible.
So I don't think the US is at much risk for retaliation. However, Israel better keep a better eye on its troops on the Lebanon border than they did in 2006, or they're going to lose some more.
"Nobody has given any real evidence that the Hariri assassination was the work of Syria".
See the report issued by UN investigator Detlev Mehlis.
UPDATE:
Former CIA official: Mossad behind Mugniyah killing
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3506535,00.html
Money Quotes:
"While Israel has formally refuted allegations it was involved in the assassination of Hizbullah 'operations officer' Imad Mugniyah in Damascus on Tuesday, former CIA official Bruce Riedel says all signs seem to indicate the Mossad was behind the killing.
Riedel, who spent over 30 years with the CIA before serving as a senior advisor on South Asian and Middle East affairs under three US presidents, said Israel has already carried out similar operations in Syria.
Currently a senior fellow with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, he says Mugniyah's assassination proves Israel has successfully infiltrated Hizbullah and that even Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah knows he may also be in the crosshairs.
"Israeli intelligence services have motive and they have proven their ability to strike in Damascus in the past. This is a significant operation, whether or not the Israelis want to publicly admit to it. He (Mugniyah) has topped the US and Israel's most-wanted list for a quarter of a century," said Riedel."
Yeah, I'd say it's just about guaranteed that Israel is going to be hit somehow by Hizballah in retaliation.
Maybe they'll get smart and figure out some way to take out a high-ranking Israeli official via a car bomb. That kind of "tit-for-tat" works well in espionage circles. "Mess with us, we mess with you."
At first I thought I should be surprised that Mougnieh avoided reprisals (for anything, including bombing U.S. Marines in Lebanon in 1983 over the U.S.' support of the 2nd Israeli invasion), or any of the other horrid acts, for 25 years, but then, maybe I shouldn't be.
Re Richard Steven Hack
I see that the blogs' favorite bank robber and ex-con has weighed in with his usual panache and pack of lies. Although, it is likely that either Israeli or US intelligence or both had at least some role in this incident, there are other suspects, including the Syrian Mukhabarat (Syrian secret police) and his many unfriends amongst the various Lebanese militia forces opposed to Hizbollah.
Now one may inquire as to why the Mukhabarat might be interested in bumping off some guy who was supposedly their ally. The answer is that they may have felt that he was out of control an not taking direction. Loose cannons can be more dangerous then the enemy. It could also be a Mukhabarat warning shot across Nasrullahs' bow to influence him not to stray off the reservation.
Well, it looks like *someone* is pretty unhappy that we haven't (yet) attacked Iran, and wants to move things back down that path again...
Blowing him up as he left an Iranian school seems an extra push.
But sometimes people get a little cocky. Using car-bomb assassinations in Syria's capital may make people start to wonder again about just who's *really* been behind all those car-bombs assassinations of "pro-Western" politicians in neighboring Lebanon over the last few years, deeds which have been causing huge trouble for the Syrian government and moving Lebanon back towards civil war.
False-flaggers have a tendency to eventually get careless and get caught...
Re RKU
I see that the blogs' second favorite Israel basher (next to Mr. Don Williams who, when he wakes up and signs on this morning will, I am sure, blame it on Hiam Saban) is engaging in the usual innuendo. This type of crap is on a par with the accusations that the Mossad was behind the Kennedy assassination and 9/11. I'm sure that Mr. RKU would like to blame the Mossad for the Zimmerman telegram and Pearl Harbor; unfortunately for him it wasn't around at the time.
I'll say this for Mr. Hack, scumbag that he is, at least he has the balls to come right out with accusations, rather then hiding behind hints like Mr. RKU.
The argument for torture is that paranoia is the only legitimate response to the world. It's a reductionist argument from people who've given up.
Anyone affiliated with hezbollah for 20+ years is going to have a lot of enemies. The answer to this question is not obvious.
"the US response was so fucking gleeful" that its pretty obvious that Israel did it.
Anyone remember Abu Nidal? He got capped in Baghdad not too long before the second invasion. It seemed obvious to me at the time that this was just an indication from Saddam that he'd missed check-out time, but who knows?
Anyone famous who gets the exploding car treatment in Damascus has almost certainly worn out his welcome with the Assad aparat. It's certainly true that there are other candidates, but I'd put various other Lebanese/Syrian actors ahead of Mossad in likelihood. The one thing everyone should be confident of is that we didn't do it. We only have capabilities like that in our dreams.
Muslims Against Sharia congratulate the organization responsible for elimination of terrorist Imad Mugniyeh on a job well done!
http://muslimsagainstsharia.blogspot.com/2008/02/targeted-killing-of-imad-mugniyeh.html
"See the report issued by UN investigator Detlev Mehlis."
Right - the one criticized by everyone but neocons for having pre-judged Syria and providing no significant evidence of direct Syrian involvement.
See here:
UN's Mehlis report discredited :: International espionage over Syria?
http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/22038
Money Quote:
Indeed, UN sources cited by the respected German newsmagazine Der Spiegel on 22nd October identified Mehlis’ central source as Zuheir al-Siddiq, a criminal convicted of fraud and embezzlement, who had clearly lied in his testimony, contradicting himself several times. At first, sources said, he claimed to have left Beirut in the month prior to the assassination of Hariri. In late September, however, he went so far as to admit involvement in the assassination. According to his brother, al-Siddiq was paid a substantial amount by an unidentified third party for his testimony for the Mehlis report. Sources within the UN Commission investigating the Hariri assassination also said that Mehlis had made contact with al-Siddiq through Syrian dissident Riffat al-Assad, an uncle of the incumbent president opposed to the current regime.
As early as 1996, before their current government posts, David Wurmser, Vice President Dick Cheney’s Middle East adviser; Douglas Feith, Undersecretary of Defence for Policy; and Richard Perle, former Defence Policy Board Chairman, co-authored a report for then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling for a plan to “contain, destabilize, and roll-back” Israel’s rivals. Among its recommendations were “removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq” along with “striking Syrian military targets in Lebanon, and should that prove insufficient, striking at select targets in Syria proper...”
"According to Syria expert Joshua Landis, an assistant professor in Middle East Studies at Oklahoma University currently on a Fulbright Scholarship in Damascus, informed sources confirmed that “Steven Hadley, the director of the US National Security Council, called the President of the Italian senate to ask if he had a candidate to replace Bashar al-Asad as President of Syria.” Regime change, the end-goal of US policy in Syria, has been lent a new lease of life by the politics of the Hariri assassination.
In this context, the Mehlis report provides the Bush and Sharon administrations the ammunition needed to galvanise support for the neoconservative plan for military action against Syria. Given his role in the 1986 La Belle bombing, the possibility remains that his investigation has firstly concealed the role of US and Israeli intelligence interests in relation to the Hariri assassination, and secondly been politicized to support US and Israeli grand regional designs."
I suppose I could look it up, but can someone explain the legal basis for US Marines to be in Lebanon in 1983, when they were killed?
With all due respect, Hack, speculation from some website does not constitute discreditation. There's quite a bit of evidence in the Mehlis report. I don't think it's particularly conclusive, but there's plenty of it from a variety of sources. You've got a bad habit of skipping source materials and going straight for the gossip columns.
Mr. Larsson--the Marines were there to "show the flag", or "demonstrate US commitment", or some such nonsense as part of a UN "peacekeeping force" sent in the aftermath of the 1982 Israeli invasion. The legal basis was the UN.
The force was almost immediately withdrawn after the blast, abandoning the Lebanese to more bloody civil war and encouraging Osama bin Laden and others to think that a few casualties are all it takes to drive the weak and irresolute Americans out of the Middle East.
Comments closed February 27, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
I had no idea who this guy was until I read about him last night in Tim Weiner's Legacy of Ashes. Now he's dead. Chalk one up for Littlewood.
Posted by ixnaythemetier | February 13, 2008 10:52 PM