Stats Tell

The same Chad Ford article I mentioned early says that Andris Biedrins "falls somewhat into the Anderson Varejao category: energetic big man whose stats don't tell the whole story in terms of on-court contributions." But the story the stats tell is that Biedrins is a pretty good basketball player. Unless, that is, by "stats" you just mean "per game scoring average." But my stats say that Biedrins' ten points per game come on just seven field goal attempts. They tell me that he's also averaging ten rebounds and one block per game, and he's doing all this in 27.5 minutes as a young center who's coach likes to play small ball.

Ford's not wrong about Biedrins, the numbers say exactly what he's trying to say, namely that Biedrins is a good player and that especially given his age your team would be glad to have him. But for some reason he thinks these attributes are intangible when, in fact, they're right there in the numbers.

Comments

As the only big guy on a small fast team, he's going to have inflated stats. He's going to get more rebounds and more scrambly type baskets than a big man on a more traditional team. The warriors are only an average rebounding team so that tells me that that there aren't a lot of other good rebounderrs on the warriors comepeting with him. The test for a good big man is rebounding consistently against all competition and scoring with your back to the basket. Bedrenis may be able to do that, but I'd have to see him on another team before I decided if he was better than Varajao or Noah. Verdict? Inconclusive.

Posted by cw | February 27, 2008 1:42 PM

In terms of win shares, I believe that Varejao and Shane Battier, for example, are both much better than their traditional stats and their PERs suggest -- reasons being differences in values assigned to scoring and the infrequency with which they turn the ball over. I would guess that Biedrin's value, to the extent that your a believer in win shares (which I am), is also better than his other stats, which are also good on their own terms, show him to be.

Posted by MrTimbo | February 27, 2008 1:45 PM

I don't think "stats don't tell the whole story" is inconsistent with "the story the stats tell is that Biedrins is a pretty good basketball player."

The story the stats tell is that he's pretty good. Maybe the non-stats story is that he's even better than that. I dunno - don't watch enough GS games to know. I do think they should play him more, though. 27.5 MPG doesn't seem like enough, even though I realize they like the "shooters at all positions" theory too.

Posted by Al | February 27, 2008 1:45 PM

who's coach likes to play small ball.

Which number is that?

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | February 27, 2008 1:47 PM

Now now ... be nice to Chad. (I went to high school with the guy, so I'm usually quick to defend him.) His point still stands.

Posted by Mark D | February 27, 2008 1:51 PM

Goooo Warriors!

Posted by Natascha | February 27, 2008 1:58 PM

I'd definitely rather have Biedrins than Varajao. Biedrins is a way better offensive player and probably just as good defensively. I haven't seen Noah enough in the NBA to really judge, but from what I have seen, Biedrins looks better.

Biedrins isn't just reboudning well because the Warriors don't have anyone else -- he has to fight for a lot of those. He's long, athletic, and a great finisher, and he's fast enough to keep up with the Warriors pace. And, his free-throw shooting is improving because his form is actually getting better. It's still ugly, but it's not as horrific as it was last year.

Posted by too many steves | February 27, 2008 2:09 PM

(from basketball-reference.com):

Andris Biedrins: 18.6 PER (tied for second on GS with Ellis, behind the Baron at 20.7)

Anderson Varejao: 13.9 PER (third on CLE, excluding Smith and Wallace, behind LeBron at 30.2 and Z at 18.8)

Seems to me that Biedrins is better, and above-average in general, although they may be "rated" about the same (ie. how over- or under-rated they are based on their actual performance). Both guys have lower Usage rates than their minutes per game would suggest, which is why their counting and per-game stats are lower than you'd expect. They're basically the same in terms of performance, except for Biedrins having a slight edge in rebounding and a HUGE edge in True Shot%, where he somehow not only beats Varejao by almost 100 points (.631 to .537) but also has a higher TS% than FT% (.631 to .612). But that's what happens when you shoot over 62% from the field like Andris does.

Posted by doofman | February 27, 2008 2:45 PM

See, that's what's wrong with the current crop of basketball stats. Any metric that can't recognize that Stephen Jackson is the second-most-valuable Warrior is inherently defective.

Posted by too many steves | February 27, 2008 3:22 PM

Well just watch the Warriors during the next two weeks of Andris's absence to gauge his importance, he IS their interior defense. The guy just never makes mistakes, plays a smart game, has great hands and footwork.

Ford's commentary simply reflects the mainstream obsession with scoring avg. at the expense of all other indicators.

Posted by Dan | February 27, 2008 3:24 PM

It will be tough without Biedrins. I sure hope Brandan Wright gets some minutes when he's gone, thought. Wright has looked good lately but Nellie keeps benching him. He's got to be better than Chris Webber right now, and more importantly, they need him for the future. If he gets some playing time, he might even be ready to contibute in the playoffs this year.

Posted by too many steves | February 27, 2008 3:31 PM

Any metric that can't recognize that Stephen Jackson is the second-most-valuable Warrior is inherently defective.

Totally. Dave Berri's Wages of Wins is a neat site that definitely hits closer to the mark than most systems, but its hilarious how its completely befuddled by Jackson......I think it rates him as an overall detriment to the team. Low FG% is bad, but its not the end of the world.

Posted by Dan | February 27, 2008 3:35 PM

Dave Berri thought Mike Dunleavy should have been an All-Star this season. That's how dumb Dave Berri is.

Posted by too many steves | February 27, 2008 3:40 PM

Keep in mind that PER doesn't measure defense very well, but I'm not sure that I agree that Jackson is clearly better than Biedrins. Low FG% is one thing, but being 51st out of 63 qualifying small forwards (based on ESPN.com's positions) is pretty bad, considering he's surrounded by such offensive powers as Martell Webster, Mickael Pietrus, Devin Brown and Bostjan Nachbar. 40.7% shooting is quite bad, and he's also 58th out of 63 in rebounding rate (Kyle Korver/Trenton Hassell territory). And he's not exactly a "small" small forward either.

Jackson is a pretty good player, but he's got several holes in his game. Poor shot selection and bad rebounding are only two of them.

I know FG% isn't everything but Biedrins is beating Jackson 62%-41%. That's not even close, and more than enough to make up the difference (on a rate, not total value basis; Jackson takes more shots, mostly because Davis, Harrington and Ellis all do as well, so he's got to stick to the program of "taking lots of crappy shots.")

Posted by doofman | February 27, 2008 4:00 PM

The Warriors went 0-6 without Jack. I doubt they'll be that bad without Biedrins, but we'll find out soon enough.

Posted by too many steves | February 27, 2008 4:04 PM

I'm not anti-bedrenis, but as far as his shooting percentage goes, he only averages 7 shots a game and I'm pretty sure those are not pull up jump shots he's creating with drawer dropping crossovers. Most of his shots are dunks and layups off dump off passes or put backs. Like I said earlier, a guy like bedrenis is going to look good on that team. He might look as good on a different team but the history of the NBA is replete with examples of players (centers especially) who were in a perfect situation on one team and looked great, but then went to another team and looked less great. Ben Wallace is a good example in reverse. (Wash to Det). Brendan Haywood might be another example next year. So I don't think you can really say how good he is. He falls within a range and in that range are guys like Varajao, Noah, Dampier, the Sixers guy...

Posted by cw | February 27, 2008 4:20 PM

Biedrins is a much better player than Varajao. The guy has real potential. His defense is above average and he's a hustle player.

Varajao is overrated and it showed when no one was knocking on his door this past summer.

Posted by mikee | February 27, 2008 5:08 PM

Even more ironic is the fact that stats can do a pretty good job of explaining Anderson Varejao, who to Ford is the platonic ideal of non stats guys. Varejao takes a ton of charges (led the league in taking them last year) and is a generally good defender. This is described by the fact that the Cavs give up 8.5 points less per hundred possessions when he is on the floor than off. His "energy" takes the form of being an effective offensive rebounder and the team gets 35% of offensive rebounds when he's on opposed to 30% when he's off the floor. Funny how all of those things can be put into numbers.

Posted by Dan L | February 27, 2008 6:51 PM