The Age Thing

Atrios wrote yesterday:

I would have no problem casting a vote for a 72+ year old person. It might make me look a bit more closely at who their Veep is, but I'm just not all that concerned with the possibility that the president might get sick or die in office.

I agree, but it's worth underscoring this a bit more. The odds that a man in his seventies would die in office are really quite good. Not "I'd take an even odds bet on John McCain dying in office" good, but good enough that in McCain's case the boilerplate about picking a VP who could take over and do the job needs to be taken seriously. That's hardly an insurmountable challenge for McCain to meet, but it does at least somewhat limit his options. Something like a Dan Quayle pick isn't (and shouldn't) going to fly.

Comments

This is one of the reasons that the mini Huckabee for VP movement to up his credentials with the fundamentalists scares me. Having a man who strongly believes that the U.S. constitution should be put in line with the Bible that close to power with an aged president is a serious issue and probably why Huckabee will drain from one end what he adds on the other.

Posted by DG | February 11, 2008 2:07 PM

Huckabee should be McCain's choice and is just the man to usher in the Rapture in 2012.

Posted by Josiah | February 11, 2008 2:08 PM

For the record, just checking actuarial tables, the odds are roughly 15% that a 72 year old person will die in the next 4 years. For a 60 year old person (like Hillary), it's about 5%. That seems like a pretty big difference, and the VP seems pretty relevant.

Now I didn't break this out by gender, of course, it's just a rough figure. But the 15% makes it obvious that it's not a throwaway notion.

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

Posted by Wilson | February 11, 2008 2:10 PM

Interesting thought. Much of the conversation I've seen on the network channels (CNN, MSNBC, etc.) lately has been how McCain MUST pick a VP who is far to his right in order to court conservatives.

So, is there a tactful way to remind folks who might be voting for the "Maverick" McCain that there is a very real possibility that he'll die in office and we'll be left with Cheney 2.0?

Posted by Jim Crozier | February 11, 2008 2:17 PM

Sooooooo...you're saying no Sarah Palin for VP?

Posted by dry_fish | February 11, 2008 2:18 PM

The odds that a man in his seventies would die in office are really quite good.

Also, the odds that his health is still as good and he's not significantly more frail or feeble when it's time for re-election in four years also amplify the VP option.

Posted by right | February 11, 2008 2:20 PM

This is why I'm puzzled that Huckabee seems to be the favorite in online trading at intrade. He clearly is not someone that a man of McCain's gravitas would pick to be his successor as Commander in Chief.

I don't bet on this sort of thing, and lots of stuff in this election cycle has made no sense for awhile. But it can't keep on not making sense forever, so just as Giuliani came down to earth as the republican front runner, so too will Huckabee as the favorite for the VP nomination.

Posted by tomboy | February 11, 2008 2:21 PM

McCain isn't just 72 years old. He's a two time cancer survivor, which I would guess is the bigger risk.

I'd have huge problem with a second McCain term, even without the issue of possible mortality. He'd be 81 in his last year in office- and in my experience, even very intelligent people become less flexible in their thinking after age 75. Given the huge advantage of incumbancy, I think McCain should promise now to serve only one term.

Posted by Anne E | February 11, 2008 2:27 PM

Something like a Dan Quayle pick isn't (and shouldn't) going to fly.

Maybe he should pick Hillary?

*kidding*

Posted by SoCalJustice | February 11, 2008 2:36 PM

Also, throw in the chance that while McCain isn't extremely likely to die in the next 4 years there's a good chance he experiences a serious heart attack or stroke, incapacitating him for a lengthy amount of time. It's not reasonable to expect a 72 year old to work such a demanding job for EVERY day of the next 4 years. The VP and/or cabinet will play a significant role in managing the country at some point.

Posted by citizen (world) | February 11, 2008 2:41 PM

He should pick John Kerry.

Posted by MS | February 11, 2008 2:44 PM

Given that McCain does not have a history of diabetes or heart disease and has a 96 year old mother, I would say that the odds of his dying in office are actually quite low.

Posted by Tyro | February 11, 2008 2:45 PM

This raises the question: what if a presidential candidate dies before the election - say in October? Does the election get postponed? Does the GOP get to quickly make a substitution? If so, who? Huckster? Mitt?

Posted by MS | February 11, 2008 2:49 PM

I have to think that McCain has better survival odds as President than is reflected by the numbers from the general population. He is going to be able to take advantage of all sorts of screening tests and other preventative measures that would not be feasible to be employed on a widespread basis.

Posted by Joe | February 11, 2008 2:52 PM

I'm not worried about McCain dying in office, but his age is a huge plus for me.

I will vote for him if Obama is not nominated precisely because he is old enough that reelecting him to a second term is much more unlikely than a younger man.

He and the Clintons are so close historically in policy, that it would make little difference who serves the first 4 years.

By then, another Dem will have risen to national prominence and would present a strong case to try once again to rid DC of the status quo.

Posted by G Davis | February 11, 2008 2:56 PM

I'd say there's at least a one-in-three chance he picks Joe Lieberman.

Posted by Antid Oto | February 11, 2008 2:57 PM

If, God forbid, McCain died in October, I think there would be a movement to draft Condi Rice or Colin Powell.

Posted by nbt | February 11, 2008 2:57 PM

I have to think that McCain has better survival odds as President than is reflected by the numbers from the general population. He is going to be able to take advantage of all sorts of screening tests and other preventative measures that would not be feasible to be employed on a widespread basis.

Posted by Joe | February 11, 2008 2:52 PM

And don't forget that great health care plan he's been under as a member of the Senate. You know, the one that's paid for by taxpayers and run by the U.S. government.

http://www.tscl.org/NewContent/101421.asp

http://www.opm.gov/insure/health/about/fehb.asp

Posted by commie atheist | February 11, 2008 3:21 PM

I have to think that McCain has better survival odds as President than is reflected by the numbers from the general population. He is going to be able to take advantage of all sorts of screening tests and other preventative measures that would not be feasible to be employed on a widespread basis.

Posted by Joe | February 11, 2008 2:52 PM

And don't forget that great health care plan he's been under as a member of the Senate. You know, the one that's paid for by taxpayers and run by the U.S. government.

http://www.tscl.org/NewContent/101421.asp

http://www.opm.gov/insure/health/about/fehb.asp

Posted by commie atheist | February 11, 2008 3:23 PM

I believe that the younger you are, the more willing you will be to vote for a 72-year old man. When my father was in his 70's, he told me that he could never vote for a candidate over seventy. Based on his own exprerience, he felt that the decline in memory function and concentration would only accelerate as a president got deeper into his seventies. Judging from Reagan and Eisenhower, he seems to have been right.

It's quite possible for an aged president to survive his term, but become weak and ineffectual.

Posted by Paul Gottlieb | February 11, 2008 3:24 PM

At this point the 'Huckabee for VP' wisdom is so entrenched that McCain seems sure to disregard it. I bet he'd love Powell on his ticket. I wonder, though, whether Powell would want the job.

Posted by Ryan | February 11, 2008 3:26 PM

Powell might seem superficially attractive, especially in an Obama matchup, but he has to be permanently damaged goods from his presentation at the UN.

What's more relevant than his current health care is his status as a two time cancer survivor (remember Paul Tsongas?).

For the record, Hillary's got a 96% survival rate (modulo, as you say, the awesome health care) and obama's is 98.5% before you factor in the raving lunatics.

Posted by dbt | February 11, 2008 3:33 PM

You and Atrios are wrong. It's true that the dying-in-office objection can be addressed by a good VP pick, but there is also a very good chance of mental deterioration at that age. A good VP pick won't address THAT problem.

And in McCain's case I think that that problem is particularly acute; all of that partially suppressed violent rage could come gushing forth rather easily once age starts to erode the mental processes. He could be that crazy old guy in the neighborhood who is furious at those damn kids walking on his lawn, except with nukes.

Posted by LarryM | February 11, 2008 3:37 PM

If, God forbid, McCain died in October, I think there would be a movement to draft Condi Rice or Colin Powell.

Powell isn't committing himself to vote for the Republican, and the big thing that came out of his CNN interview is that he wants to support a unified party, by which he seemed to imply 'not the GOP'.

It's quite possible for an aged president to survive his term, but become weak and ineffectual.

Or, at very least, for health to be a consideration in his workload and travel schedule. You might have a lower risk of DVT in AF1 than in scum class, but summits in SE Asia involve pretty gruelling flights.

Speaking of which, you have to wonder what all the campaign flying miles does to all the candidates. Some of those charter planes aren't so roomy.

Posted by pseudonymous in nc | February 11, 2008 3:39 PM

Yup, I'd think that should he be elected he's extremely unlikely to be a two-term president, given how much the job takes out of the incumbents who actually--you know--do the work (even "What, me worry?" George is looking rather haggard lately).

Even if he were to plow through four years with no health complications, his VP will more than likely be the nominee in '12 (sorry, Mittens), so the choice has far more riding on it than usual.

Posted by trollhattan | February 11, 2008 3:43 PM

Powell might seem superficially attractive, especially in an Obama matchup, but he has to be permanently damaged goods from his presentation at the UN.

More damaged than McCain himself? The guy's cheerleader #1 for this war. Besides, who remembers the UN presentation? I mean sure, you and I do, but we're not going to vote for the ticket anyway. I don't think that episode is widely held against Powell. For most people he's Obama (non-threatening black guy) plus big-time gravitas.

McCain has consistently said he wants a 'strong on national security' running mate. With Powell he'd hope to steal some black voters. The Villagers adore Powell. Who knows what McCain will do, but Powell seems an even more obvious candidate than Huckabee. The biggest obstacle would probably be Powell's own reluctance -- he clearly feels burned by the last Republican nominee he chose to come out of retirement for.

Posted by Ryan | February 11, 2008 4:16 PM

It might not be p.c. to say it, but in an Obama/McCain match-up, Obama wins easily if the first time McCain falls down, or catches a cold, or sneezes, Barack plays a pick up game with Michael Jordan and makes sure the press get a few shots.

That would be an easy knock out punch.

I respect John McCain, but the age thing is just gonna hurt him in the general, especially against Obama, and frankly, I don't have a problem with that. Because we don't always pick the person who we agree with on the issues - instead, we pick the person we want representing us as a nation. And for most, we want to feel young and energetic, not old and cranky.

Posted by TheCarpetMuncher | February 11, 2008 4:16 PM

I think you and Atrios are crazy to take the 'high road' here and pretend that age isn't a factor. This just plays to the old crap about what kind of person you are being more important than your ability to do your job as president (golly, I'd rather have a beer with Bush!). The job is an incredibly demanding one, intellectually and emotionally. We need someone who is fit for that job and a 72 year old 2 time cancer survivor just isn't. Even if he doesn't die, his intellectual capacity should be seriously questioned. We wouldn't nominate an idiot for the presidency for the same reasons. Look at how well the Reagan presidency turned out- he got away with pretending he didn't remember whether Iran Contra was going on! That's what you risk if you go with McCain.

Posted by mpowell | February 11, 2008 4:50 PM

The normally sure-footed Atrios has really fallen down on this one. If McCain wins in 2008 he'll be president for 8 years if he doesn't die during his first term. The amount of mental deterioration and lack of physical stamina he'll have at age 80 is simply not known, but there's a high probability it will be substantial, and could even be disabling.

We already had a elderly president who apparently (or is it a fact?) suffered from Alzheimer's while in office (Maggie Thatcher on Reagan: "Poor dear, there's nothing between his ears.").

Having an 80-year old president is fraught with risk and should be avoided. Period.

Posted by SB | February 11, 2008 4:53 PM

I don't know why there's all this debate over who he should pick. We all know McCain is going to pick Lieberman as his veep. Could the Maverick do anything else?

Posted by Tony V | February 11, 2008 6:08 PM

Obama's a lot younger than the other candidates, but how does his smoking figure into this? Is he still on the patch? Is he going to kick the habit and use that triumph as a bonus reason (and metaphor!) for us to vote for him in November?

Just brainstorming possibilities here.

Posted by Adam Villani | February 11, 2008 6:13 PM

If, God forbid, McCain died in October, I think there would be a movement to draft Condi Rice or Colin Powell.
Posted by nbt

I doubt it. Powell was not interested 8 years ago. He is as old as McCain (71) and has health issues (prostate cancer survivor, hypertension).

As for Condi Rice, no one in the Bush Administration is more damaged goods than Mr Bush's #1 policy advisor and hapless Secretary of State, except maybe Rumsfeld.

Anyone floating Rice's name is some dumbass conservative thinking such a selection would somehow cause affirmative-action loving blacks, identity politics women, and multiculti-loving Democrats to switch parties for the 2008 vote.

Or a Lefty with a warped sense of humor. "Condi! Condi! 4 more years of Bush! Come on you dense Republican saps! Vote Condi!"

Posted by chris ford | February 11, 2008 7:37 PM

What exactly are McCain's health stats?

Just being a cancer survivor doesn't necessarily mean anything.

You need to see his actual "biomarker" figures to see how healthy he is? Does he exercise? What medications are he on - or likely to be on if President?

Just going on age - especially with a mere 15% chance of dying - isn't enough. You need hard figures.

Naturally it would be better to have a younger, fitter President - but the reality is that humans believe older is wiser - despite McCain being the poster boy for that not being true. So unless you've got some real evidence that he isn't going to make it through at least one term, it's not going to sway enough people to make a difference.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | February 11, 2008 7:48 PM

Go to a retirement home and ask if a 75 year old should be President. They would laugh you out of the place. My parents, 90 and 82, live in such a place and see their friends and themselves rapidly deteriorating. Of course it is not steady but occurs in fits and starts. They are not in denial as Matt and Atrios obviously are. As many have already pointed out it's not death we need to be concerned with. We need a President with a vigorous body and mind. We need to face the age issue head on.

Posted by Carl | February 11, 2008 8:11 PM

Since you mentioned him, the Wikipedia entry for Dan Quayle includes this tidbit:

...his good looks were praised by Senator John McCain, who said "I can't believe a guy that handsome wouldn't have some impact."

For the record, Quayle today is still younger than Lloyd Bentsen was then. And Barack Obama is older now than Quayle was then.

Posted by Grumpy | February 11, 2008 8:45 PM

I understand Dick "Dick" Cheney is heading up the search committee.

Posted by ran | February 12, 2008 1:15 AM

I knew Dan Quale. Dan Quale was a friend of mine (see "Dan Quayle Was Right" in the Atlantic archives).

Mike Huckabee is no Dan Quayle.

Posted by Robert Powell | February 12, 2008 3:40 AM

The normal actuarial tables do not apply to someone who has had a recurrence of melanoma and who will be subjected to the unbelievable stress of the Presidency.

Posted by bob h | February 12, 2008 8:15 AM

I don't know why there's all this debate over who he should pick. We all know McCain is going to pick Lieberman as his veep.

Well then, in that case Joementum actually loses this time around.

Hello President Obama!

Posted by Proton | February 12, 2008 11:50 AM