The Denver Nuggets

There's a piece up on Hoopsworld arguing that the Denver Nuggets have a ton of talent but can't break into the elite because of a pick-up game mentality. I'm not so sure. One piece of alleged evidence in favor of this is the idea that Denver puts forth a "poor overall defensive effort." But according to Basketball Reference their defense is seventh in the league. That's pretty good. Certainly it's better than their offense, which is only thirteenth in the league.

I think people misunderstand Denver because, once again, of the pace illusion. Denver plays at the highest pace in the league, so if you look at points per game their offense looks better than it is, and their defense looks worse than it is. The fact of the matter, however, is that despite the fact that Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony are both alleged to be elite superstar scorers, their offense is distinctly mediocre because neither of them are actually very efficient scorers.

Comments

Look, Denver is a finesse team. Camby is the best finesse defender in the league. They have nobody who can thug it up -- and no, Eduardo Najera doesn't count.

With Houston now out of the picture, there are five teams that have a nontrivial chance of winning the West. In decreasing order of probability, I would rank them:

1) Spurs (most likely)
2) Mavs
3) Suns
4) Lakers
5) Jazz

Posted by nbt | February 27, 2008 5:54 PM

Where did this post come from?

It's strange that posts sometimes appear somewhere in the middle of the page, rather than on top.

In any case, the post is exactly right. The only thing I'd add is that the mediocity of Iverson is something that was highlighted when he was traded for a more efficient player - Andre Miller. Denver did not get better, because Iverson is just not a more efficient player than Miller.

Posted by Al | February 27, 2008 6:24 PM

It's strange that you make the same mistake that the hoopsworld story does. A fast paced offense (the fastest in the game) will necessarily be more inefficient just be cause of the nature of that type of play. If the Spurs suddenly started to run, don't you think their efficiency would drop?

Posted by The Darkness | February 27, 2008 6:54 PM

Iverson has a better true shooting percentage than Miller and turns the ball over less. I'd say he's more efficient and plays a zillion minutes too.

It seems clear to me, if not Dave Berri, that it's the giant hole at PG and the fact that neither KMart nor Nene has been able to give them consistent minutes that's killed the offense. To blame their best players seems silly in light of how little offensive talent they have outside of AI, Carmelo, and a couple of role players like Kleiza and JR Smith.

Posted by Daniel | February 27, 2008 6:56 PM

It annoys me that people assume Houston is "out of the picture" due to Yao's injury. The Rockets are a deep, talented team that stand a better chance than the Nuggets of making the playoffs even without Yao. They might not be able to do much damage, sadly, once they actually get there, but that says more about how stacked the West is. They'll be fine. (The easier schedule certainly helps.)

Posted by Jeffrey | February 27, 2008 7:20 PM

"It seems clear to me, if not Dave Berri, that it's the giant hole at PG and the fact that neither KMart nor Nene has been able to give them consistent minutes that's killed the offense."

The Atkins injury has been devastating for the Nuggets. They need a PG to keep Iverson off the ball as much as possible, and with Atkins down, that's fallen to Anthony Carter, a guy who has trouble nailing the open shot. Given how much Iverson and Carmelo get doubled, having that guy be able to hit the open shot is crucial.

And the Nene injury has been devastating as well. K-Mart has given them far more than I'd been expecting, but he's still a bit slow laterally post-surgery. Nene not only provides their only non-Carmelo low-post offensive game, but also enables them to defend the post without doubling. K-Mart would be nice for 20 minutes a game, but having him as the prime option at the '4' is severely problematic.

Given Nene and Atkins being out, the Nuggets are a very thin team, with little margin for error. 48 wins seems about right for them at their current state of health, which is obviously a problem in this season's Western Conference.

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"Look, Denver is a finesse team. Camby is the best finesse defender in the league. They have nobody who can thug it up -- and no, Eduardo Najera doesn't count."

Nene isn't a thug, but he is a quick, skilled, big body down low. He's a poor man's Dwight Howard, who isn't a thug either.

Thugism is overrated. K-Mart is a thug, but I'd rather have a quick 'n' strong player like Nene instead.

Posted by Petey | February 27, 2008 8:12 PM

"Iverson has a better true shooting percentage than Miller and turns the ball over less. I'd say he's more efficient"

Al is a moronic hater when it comes to Bubbachuck.

He's really been having a beautiful season so far.

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This season has been a real heartbreak for me. If everyone had been healthy, the Nuggets had a serious shot going deep into the playoffs. But with their injuries, they're stuck just trying to get into the playoffs and avoid LA in the first round.

Without Nene and Atkins, they just don't have the personnel to match up with the best of the West.

Posted by Petey | February 27, 2008 8:19 PM

"The fact of the matter, however, is that despite the fact that Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony are both alleged to be elite superstar scorers, their offense is distinctly mediocre because neither of them are actually very efficient scorers."

No one in the association plays Iverson and Anthony straight-up.

And the Nuggets, as currently constituted, have no way to make teams pay for double-teaming Iverson and Anthony.

That's not a problem with those players, it's a problem with the rest of the personnel on the floor. It's a good part of the reason precisely why they so profoundly miss Atkins and Nene - both are finishers, one from the outside and one from the inside. If Iverson and Anthony get double-teamed now, the ball goes to Carter, Camby, or Martin, none of whom are particularly skilled at taking advantage of defenses who are ignoring them.

This dynamic is why Linas Kleiza is having a breakout season. While still a pretty raw player, he's at least able to take advantage of the double-teams on Iverson and Anthony to finish.

Posted by Petey | February 27, 2008 8:27 PM

Al is a moronic hater when it comes to Bubbachuck.

Not true at all! I saw Iverson play a lot in person when I was in law school, and that turned me into a fan. I think he's a good player - I just don't think he's the best thing since sliced bread.

Posted by Al | February 27, 2008 11:20 PM

"I think he's a good player - I just don't think he's the best thing since sliced bread."

Well, you did write:

The only thing I'd add is that the mediocity of Iverson is something that was highlighted when he was traded for a more efficient player - Andre Miller. Denver did not get better, because Iverson is just not a more efficient player than Miller.

Iverson has a higher TS% than Miller this season, as he does pretty much every season, which is certainly one measure of "efficiency". I'm not sure what other measure you have in mind.

You might also want to take a gander at the +/- numbers, where Philadelphia is actually worse with Miller on the court than with him on the bench. (Compare and contrast to Iverson.)

Or you might want to think about the concept that in his 9 seasons, Andre Miller has never won a playoff series, and has only participated in 15 playoff games.

Miller is the definition of a mediocre point guard. Average defender, above average passer, below average penetrator, and below average shooter. He's only barely better than someone like Brevin Knight was in his prime.

Put him on a disorganized team of puppies like Philly or Atlanta, and he'll help stabilize things a bit. Put him on a team with a gaping hole at point guard like Cleveland, and he could give you some helpful minutes. But competent traffic cops who can't shoot or penetrate have very limited value for most winning teams.

If you wish to consider him as valuable a player as Iverson, either you're just not paying attention, or you're a moronic hater when it comes to Bubbachuck.

Posted by Petey | February 28, 2008 11:53 AM

"But competent traffic cops who can't shoot or penetrate have very limited value for most winning teams."

Which is why I'm generally not happy to have to play big minutes with Anthony Carter, who is basically a poor man's Andre Miller.

Posted by Petey | February 28, 2008 11:56 AM