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The McCain Factor

02 Feb 2008 03:08 pm

Ed Kilgore notes one beneficial impact of John McCain's emergence as the likely Republican nominee:

It was most noticeable on the immigration issue, where the cramped defensiveness of past exchanges gave way to a wonkathon that mostly centered on the question of the extent to which illegal immigrants are depressing low-end wages (though Wolf Blitzer made every effort to drag the candidates back to the tedious and highly misleading question of drivers' licences). The simple reality is that John McCain's history on immigration reform largely takes the issue off the table in a general election contest. It could still play hell in down-ballot races, but unless McCain does a full-scale massive flip-flop, immigrant-bashing won't be a major feature of the presidential discussion.

This even has some influence on the Democratic primary, since Barack Obama's campaign seems to have been emboldened to take a clear position against turning DMV officers into a locus of immigration enforcement in a way that's helped him secure the endorsement of La Opinion and perhaps of Latino voters.

One very interesting question is how this will play out on the subject of climate change. In one possible universe, the fact that having John McCain as your opponent takes pure denialism off the table opens up a scenario where you have a debate between a timid strategy for tackling climate change and a bold strategy for doing the same. Thus, the political center of gravity shifts in a good direction. But in another possible universe, both sides vaguely pay lip service to the climate change either but neither really talks about it and the press just kind of writes this off as something on which McCain and Clinton/Obama basically agree.

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Comments (34)

McCain's getting the nomination. We're doomed.
-GB
PS
Did you know that Andre 3000 raps about Whole Foods?

I guess have been born and raised and lived in large east coast cities my entire life, I'm pretty inured to the presence of immigrants - they just don't draw an emotional response from me. To me, this whole immigration thing seems the ginned-up 2008 version of "what can we get 'red-blooded' Americans riled up about this time' so the discussion can be moved away from how Republicans are fucking the country". It's a long and illustrious Republican strategy - from Communists ("Who lost China?", McCarthy, missle gap, etc) to "law and order" to "welfare queens" to "the Clenis" to gays and the 'sanctity' of marriage.

It seems to me the immigration issue has been totally stoked up to make the election about something else rather than the Bush years - and it just doesn't seem that easy that the Republicans will now just walk away from it and leave it sitting there and not capitalize on all the groundwork. If it is the case that McCain neuters the issue for them, then maybe they really are picking their weakest candidate after all.

Another thing I don't think enough people are paying attention to is that if it's McCain v. Obama, the race/racism card is totally dead in the water. It would be difficult to accuse McCain or those who vote for him as being racist or not understanding multiculturalism or racial issues when he has an Ethiopian daughter with skin much darker than Obama's. I suppose one could raise the argument about how it's imperialist to presume that kids would want to grow up in the U.S. rather than in the culture they were born into....that doesn't help to sell Obama's "yes we can" message, though.

So, yesterday we were upset that McCain was going to win the nomination because he doesn't hold crazy views that are going to turn various segments of the voting public off to him and the Republican party in general, and today we are happy that he doesn't hold those crazy views? Let's not help McCain portray himself as a reasonable moderate.

Ethel-to-Tilly, I agree that much of the function of such issues will be to get discussion away from Bush, that's not why such issues work. They work because there are real anxieties which can be exploited, well anxieties that are as real for the anxious folks as any others. Down here in Texas we've a city called Grapevine which would have made landlords the face of the Department of Homeland Security or tosed those same landlords in jail. Lots of local employers (concrete companies, roofers, builders, cleaners) are nervous that they'll be held accountable. We're all immigrants but nativist fears run deep.

McCain's history may mute some of this stuff in the election...we can only hope.

Well, following up on Matt's mention of the "drivers license" issue, picked up from a previous thread, I think it most changes the 527 character of the race.

It had previously seemed to me that the easiest way for the Republicans to beat Obama in the general would be through a "harsh" Lee Atwater/Karl Rove type campaign. But since such a campaign would be regarded as "racist", I doubted the McCain campaign would be willing to do it. Therefore, it would be run as an "independent" 527 campaign, just like the Swiftboaters who crushed Kerry and also the Willie Horton spots that destroyed Dukakis.

But almost no one---certainly not the Republicans---regard the DMV issue as "racist" and it's so totally potent, there may not even be any need for a separate "independent" 527 campaign.

Basically, Obama has said that as President he will work hard to give government drivers' licenses to all the illegal immigrants in America.

The Republican response: Yes, Yes! Obama is an extremely honest fellow and we are sure he will keep that campaign promise. We'll also give the young fellow a boost by spreading his message through about $100M of totally honest mass advertising.

I personally think that the people really ticked off by this are all the Republican consultants who were planning to make a fortune in commissions by running those independent 527 campaigns...

Hmmm. Matthew wants to bring the troops home so that the troops can compete with low-wage illegal immigrants for jobs.

What a patriot.

Maybe Matthew can meet some of the returning troops who are missing a leg and tell them "A grateful nation appreciates your service".

Maybe get Hillary to hand them all the Bronze Star.

That went over well with veteran Timothy McVeigh.

Although we probably don't want to discharge troops from the military once they come back --given the massive security threat just uncovered:
----------
"BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's prime minister vowed on Saturday that attacks by two female bombers which killed 99 people in Baghdad would not derail improved security,...
...The U.S. military said there were indications the women were mentally handicapped, and probably unaware they were being used as human bombs.
----------
That's a very chilling report, when you think about the number of Republicans running around loose here in the US.

Re Don Williams

"Hmmm. Matthew wants to bring the troops home so that the troops can compete with low-wage illegal immigrants for jobs."

Hey, Hiam Saban has to get his employees from somewhere. After all, what red blooded American would want to work for an appeaser like him?

Re SLC's comment "Hey, Hiam Saban has to get his employees from somewhere. After all, what red blooded American would want to work for an appeaser like him? "
------------
Er.. the ones who can spell his name correctly?

McCain will deny he ever held those positions vis a vis immigration and global warning.

I respond to Kilgore's claim that a McCain nomination "largely takes the issue off the table in a general election contest" here. He seems not to have factored millions of people into his calculations.

Jews, historically being Stateless, have always favored Open Borders. MY's roots should not blind him to 70% of voters strongly against Amnesty for 12 million and letting in 30 million more relatives under "family reunification".

If anything, the numbers will grow in recession as jobs are fought over and blacks finally realize the Democrat Ruling Elites and Jewish "high-value" donors have sold them out and displaced them from dozens of industries for cheaper illegals.

That both the Dem nominee and "Hero" McCain wish to focus on other matters or pander to the last immigrant batch does not mean the issue has abated. Luckily for Democrats, the hatred most Republicans have for McCain and allies like blue collar "Reagan" workers screwed out of wages by foreign workers will mean he is the 1st target.

Like last spring, wealthy Elites will be clueless until the immigration firestorm hits again...and it may come from an unlikely source - blacks in major cities realizing that the black-brown coalition is an artifice of mega-millionaire businessmen contrived to make blacks think that a mass changeout of jobs is worth it for "solidarity".

And McCain is not really that germane to the discussion because if (as likely) he becomes the nominee. he starts as a dead man walking....

Draft Lou Dobbs, Whackjob Kelly. Or file papers yourself, if you can pluck up the courage to come out from under your bed.

It's a long and illustrious Republican strategy - from Communists ("Who lost China?", McCarthy, missle gap, etc)

Actually, I believe JFK was behind that whole missile gap business.

Hey you're right Matt - I stand corrected

chris -- your numbers are exactly the opposite of the truth.

"A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken last weekend found that 78% of respondents feel people now in the country illegally should be given a chance at citizenship."

Hi! I'll be helping LonewackoDotCom deal with the overflow.

For my first task, I'll remind Alan in SF that many polls - especially those about immigration - are designed to deceive respondents and comfort supporters. Whatever poll you're referring to, it almost certainly didn't indicate all the downsides associated with amnesty, such as giving more power to racial power groups and foreign governments.

"chris -- your numbers are exactly the opposite of the truth."

That's always the case with Ford - he gets his numbers from Rush Limbaugh or his Grand Dragon.

chris -- your numbers are exactly the opposite of the truth.
A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken last weekend found that 78% of respondents feel people now in the country illegally should be given a chance at citizenship."
Posted by Alan in SF

Nice piece of sophistry, Alan!

Even the people that want illegals deported tomorrow do no oppose those foreigners getting in line and applying for citizenship after they are out of the country.

What they do oppose is instant Amnesty.

They oppose the 3,000 fine payoff for instant US citizenship that McCain keeps saying "isn't real Amnesty". If the 2nd and 3rd World interested in coming to the US could be guaranteed instant citizenship or just residency with full rights and all welfare programs and jobs open to them?

You would have on top of illegals, 400-450 million people happy to pay or borrow to pay McCains little chickenshit 3K fine to get all the jobs and good deals the US offers, then work on getting not just the illegal's families (30 million more in) but all the 3rd world family of people that would pay 3K to bypass any line or wait.

Obviously, we cannot let even those now waiting in line to legally come in, some for 10-15 years, to gain the same entitlement McCain & Co want to give the border jumpers in return for the 3K pittance.

RKU: "Basically, Obama has said that as President he will work hard to give government drivers' licenses to all the illegal immigrants in America."

As a HRC supporter now, I want to dispute this.

Obama, as far as I know, has not said he will "work hard to give government drivers' licenses to all the illegal immigrants in America."

That is a loaded paraphrase ('work hard', 'government'--who the hell else gives out licenses), that will only hurt us in November if Sen. Obama is our nominee. Don't build GOP narratives.

Big picture people.

Double nice piece of sophistry, Chris, as no one has proposed instant amnesty for 12 million illegals.

If McCain has proposed that any illegal could get his citizenship by paying a #3,000 fine, you've been listening to a different campaign than the rest of us. Or do you have a link?

Why should it be a surprise that people express different opinions about the same policy depending on whether you call it "amnesty" or a "path to citizenship"? (And enough of this nonsense about getting in line: for unskilled workers from poor countries, there is, for all practical purposes, no line to get into.)

Personally, I'd like to note that replacing deportation with thousands of dollars in fines (remember that we're mostly talking about a very poor group of people) is hardly amnesty. It's not even a pardon. It's more like a commutation, though that term typically refers to reducing a prison sentence.

Obama is taking the amnesty line for precisely the reason that HRC is now taking a harder line of immigration: both want what the other has. In his case, he wants her hispanic support, while she wants his black voters.

We are likely to see a more antiimmigration line from HRC in the fall, assuming she's the nominee. She has to increase enthusiasm among blacks who will be a bit discouraged by the failure of the Obama campaign, and the nature of the attacks on his campaign.

See

The Real Meaning of “Anchor Baby”

at

Rudely Stamped

Michael Blaine
www.rudelstamped.blogspot.com

See

The Real Meaning of “Anchor Baby”

at

Rudely Stamped

Michael Blaine
www.rudelystamped.blogspot.com

With McCain, we will also not have ot hear endless drivel about "God" and "faith".

We have large nos. of immigrants here in NJ, and they have revitalized many communities and are an overall plus for us. Their presence here is merely driven by supply and demand, something Republicans should understand.

Not all blacks are anti-immigrant. And furthermore, there are immigrants who happened to be black and they have the same concerns as hispanic ones. I get sick and tired of the immigration issue being framed as latino vs. White/black when in fact it is more complicated than that.

There would no immigration issue at all if it were not for globalization.

The broader picture is too often overlooked in Bloggy World.

Andruw:

You seem like a pretty decent, sincere guy, but political campaigning is a pretty tough world. If I personally promise not to put a negative spin on Obama's campaign promise, would that also bind the GOP consultants? And I suspect they've already "discovered" the issue since it's been on the front pages of some of America's largest newspapers

I honestly can't think of any top-tier candidate in either party who's ever committed political suicide this early in a campaign season...

MGJ:

Admittedly, *some* blacks are indeed immigrants. Maybe something like 3% I'd guess. And all the data I've ever seen indicate that American blacks are about the most anti-immigrant demographic slice of the electorate, certainly far, far more so than e.g. whites.

La Opinion and the LA Times are both owned by Tribune, a Chicago based media company. So it should be no surprise that both papers endorsed Obama.

First, I think my intern did a great job up above.

Second, the deal with "amnesty" is that that's how it will be perceived. It doesn't matter what it's called. What matters is how millions upon millions of prospective illegal aliens will see it. And, they'll see it as a giant giveaway and a message that they can take part in the then-current plan or in future plans. And, they'll respond by coming here illegally.

Note also the the MSM and the candidates continuously play word games in order to fool people, and no one should support that (yet, of course, many do when it breaks their way.)

As for McCain, he wants to put 10 million on the "path" immediately. The other 2 million who've committed crimes he wants to deport immediately. Those are paraphrases of his statements; his numbers are most likely wrong and in any case both are unworkable.

Will McCain Make a POW out of the USA?

Will McCain surrender the borders to Mexico through his Amnesty
Program? Will McCain surrender your wallet to special interest
groups and entitlements for illegal aliens? Will McCain surrender
your First Amendment Right? Will McCain surrender Pro-Life views
and RoevsWade to liberals and partial birth abortions?

Will you surrender your vote to McCain this coming Tuesday?


Comments closed February 16, 2008.

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