Tied in Texas

ABC/WaPost has Clinton and Obama tied in Texas with Clinton's lead in Ohio at a substantial-but-shrinking 50-43. Given the general tendency of Obama to gain over time, this means Clinton really has to kick his ass in tonight's debate.

Meanwhile, years ago I was an intern at Rolling Stone alongside much-more-adept intern Conor Bezane. He, in turn, stuck more closely to the music-themed-journalism concept and works at MTV News where he's got a story on Obama's creative class mobilization that quotes yours truly.

Comments

If Hillary loses the nomination I'll mark the day as one of the darkest in American history.

Posted by Susan | February 21, 2008 6:12 PM

I'm hoping we see the new improved Hillary tonight, the one with 30% more populism.

Posted by Helter | February 21, 2008 6:19 PM

When Barack Obama wins the nomination it will be a wonderful day in American history.

Posted by Jennifer | February 21, 2008 6:20 PM

Susan...ummmm... ... Susan?...if you're going to be so hyperbolic...careful with your word choice...that's all.

Posted by Ryno | February 21, 2008 6:22 PM

If Obama wins, this will forever put a black mark on the presidency.

Posted by blah | February 21, 2008 6:23 PM

Given the general tendency of Obama to gain over time, this means Clinton really has to kick his ass in tonight's debate.

Or she can do what she is doing: run adds targeting Latinos which ask them to "vote early." Early voting seemed to have an impact in California, where Clinton's victory margin seemed larger than closing days polling would have suggested. If you can get enough people in Texas to vote before they have as much time as everyone else to evaluate both candidates, then you cut into Obama's established propensity to catch up and close strong.

But a vote early campaign sends a pretty pathetic message: "I'm betting the longer you think about it, the more likely you are to go for the other guy. So vote for me, quick, before you change your mind!"

Apparently the ads are working, with early voting in Texas up 1000%.

Posted by Dan Kervick | February 21, 2008 6:24 PM

Pollster.com's Texas graph is striking -- that trendline isn't the slightest bit subtle. Texas is slipping away from Sen. Clinton fast, and there is still about a week and a half left.

Posted by jbryan | February 21, 2008 6:26 PM

Apparently the ads are working, with early voting in Texas up 1000%.

You forget two things:

(1) Most of the tenfold early voting increases are happening in the cities, like Dallas, Houston and Austin, where Obama is strongest; and

(2) The Obama campaign has a major early voting movement that is emphasized in ads, campaign events and university outreach as well.

Assuming that those early voters are going to Hillary on the basis of some of her ads assumes too much.

Posted by Maxwell | February 21, 2008 6:32 PM

Even with the large Latino population, Texas always struck me as a strange choice for a Hillary firewall. I'm not sure there was much thought put into it other than the fact that it's a "big state" and we all know those are the only ones that count because Obama can't win them.

Posted by Jake | February 21, 2008 6:35 PM

I'm just glad we have bloggers to wrest journalism from the grip of an incestuous elite.

Posted by Argot | February 21, 2008 6:40 PM

Will I be able to stream the debate on CNN.com?

Posted by M | February 21, 2008 6:41 PM

Also, I thought given their low turnout during the 2004 election for Kerry, the districts she's been concentrating on in the Southwest don't have as many delegates at stake as say Dallas, Austin or Houston. I don't think greater Latino turnout in El Paso and other Southwest Texas are going to be enough to cut into his significant pledged delegate lead.

Posted by Keith | February 21, 2008 6:47 PM

I have this weird feeling that this debate will be extremely anti-climactic. Either Hillary is in the process of internally coming to terms with her impending loss, in which case she will lighten up, or (hopefully) her advisers have convinced her that the more negative she gets, the worse her numbers look. I would be surprised and saddened if she "goes nuclear" tonight -- and I am a supporter of hers.

Posted by Ryan | February 21, 2008 7:06 PM

Hillary back in the lead in the Gallup national tracking poll. Obama bubble may be bursting.

Right wing attacks like these are starting to resonate:
I wouldn't mind if it was a high-minded call to a self-reliant citizenry, but you get the feeling all it boils down to is a demand that we take our place and twirl our batons in the 300-million cheerleading squad for Barack! The Barack Obama Show starring Barack Obama.

And it's only going to get worse.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTg0ZGE5YmRhMzNjMGY5ZWY5MDYxZjExOTI3YjEzMTE=

Tonight's debate should be a good show!

Posted by Still Undecided | February 21, 2008 7:09 PM

I'd say the only large metropolitan area Hillary has a chance of winning in Texas is San Antonio.

Houston, Dallas/FW and Austin will vote Obama.

I'll be interested in seeing the results in East Texas though.

Posted by Davebo | February 21, 2008 7:13 PM

The disgusting creeps at the National Reivew will only add to Obama's support. Obama will be the nominee because voters know how to listen.

Posted by Jennifer | February 21, 2008 7:15 PM

Obama comes to Texas.

And Houston goes under a Tornado Watch

Coincidence?

I think not.

Posted by Davebo | February 21, 2008 7:16 PM

This guy really calls himself "Still Undecided"? The chutzpah!

Posted by John | February 21, 2008 7:17 PM

Still Undecided loves him some corner.

Posted by bjd | February 21, 2008 7:20 PM

Who are these people who are still legitimately undecided, at least to the extent that a few more TV ads or some heightened campaigning in their area could sway them? There's hardly anyone I've met over the past few months who hasn't strongly favored one candidate or another, and I don't hang out with an especially politically engaged crowd. The idea that at this point in the race, as over-exposed to the candidates as everyone's been, there are still people whose opinions could be changed one way or the other by something as simple as "campaigning," really just strikes me as strange.

Posted by Alex | February 21, 2008 7:23 PM

Still Undecided has decided that he really hates Obama.

Posted by blah | February 21, 2008 7:37 PM

"The Cool Candidate"? Jeez, Matt.

And this quote from the article was fairly priceless:

"I think something about being a hipster or about people who they call hipsters is this endless quest for authenticity"

Give me a break.

Posted by hum | February 21, 2008 7:44 PM

Good to see that "Still Undecided" is Still Shrill.

Posted by Jake | February 21, 2008 7:49 PM

I'm an Obama kid so whenever I see a piece of news that favours Hillary I interpret it with triply more pessimism than such optimism as I'm fired with post an Obama plus. It's unfair. If HRC had had this string of wins by now Obama would be out in the cold. Ack, the tension! And two weeks more! And then Pennsylvania if she doesn't have the grace or sense to concede!

I think political affiliation is fundamentally emotional.

Posted by burning flock | February 21, 2008 7:53 PM

Still Undecided? Really?

Between Hillary and McCain?

Tough call, to be sure...

Posted by SoCalJustice | February 21, 2008 8:06 PM

Pretty decent opening statement by Hillary, btw.

Come on, Barack. His voice sounds a little rough.

Posted by SoCalJustice | February 21, 2008 8:09 PM

Clinton. Why do I find her totally unpersuasive?

That said, Obama's weak in debate too.

Posted by M | February 21, 2008 8:11 PM

this means Clinton really has to kick his ass in tonight's debate.

After 18 debates, that's unlikely to happen.

If Clinton is to turn this around, she needs a story about an Obama lobbyist-girlfriend.

Posted by Anonymous | February 21, 2008 8:19 PM

M,
Explicate, exactly what is weak.

Posted by bjd | February 21, 2008 8:26 PM

They both sound outstanding tonight. Difficult choice.

Posted by Still Undecided | February 21, 2008 8:29 PM

Elaborating on what I said earlier, it looks like Hillary is playing nice. And it suits her. I think she is doing just wonderfully, but then again, I have always liked her.

Posted by Ryan | February 21, 2008 8:38 PM

Brother Matthew, You should write about music every now and again. Politics gets boring.

Posted by Rishi Gajria | February 21, 2008 8:48 PM

He does write about music - frequently.

They're his most boring posts.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | February 21, 2008 10:36 PM

I have to say, I was unimpressed with the "yes we can" video, but this is just freakin' awesome.

Posted by gustav | February 22, 2008 6:36 AM