Isaac Chotiner, longtime Rockets fan, pens an appreciation for Houston's incredible ongoing streak. There's no way they're going to break the 33 game record, but they only need one more win to move into second place on the all-time NBA streak list.
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Houston, We Have Strikingly Few Problems
13 Mar 2008 03:25 pm
Comments (43)
It's pretty amazing that they've had this incredible winning streak and still are not in first place. I'd be interested in knowing whether any of the other teams on the list were not in first place by the end of their streak.
I pray the streak still stands when the Celtics arrive next week.
The West is just unreal this year. The Hornets are in fifth and one win from being tied for second with two other teams.
What a great streak!
But of course it is destined to be a most irrelevant non-record streak. Most of it has been at home against bad teams, and the Rockets are still going to lose in the 1st round of the playoffs.
See how you actually feel about the streak after the far-superior and actually championship-contending Lakers and Celtics dismantle the Rockets next week.
4 1/2 games between #1 and #8 in the West. I can't remember a season like this.
How much you want to bet that the Rockets lose in the first round of the playoffs again? I can see it now...
Prediction for tonight: Warriors 124, Suns 113. Baron goes for 30 and 10.
What's so amazing is how unimpressive it's been. Aside from New Orleans twice, and Dallas without Nowitzki, they haven't really beaten any of the elite teams.
And yet, plenty of teams have long easy stretches in their schedule, right? Yet no one has ever thoroughly taken advantage of it like the Rockets have. And with Yao going down right in the middle... unbelievable.
"The West is just unreal this year. The Hornets are in fifth and one win from being tied for second with two other teams."
You think that's bad? My Powder Blues are on pace to win 49 games and not even come close to making the playoffs.
4 1/2 games between #1 and #8 in the West. I can't remember a season like this. And if you are not in the top 4 you have virtually no chance to get to the championship -- 3 straight series on the road is just too tough. Every team is playing harder than ever. Its great stuff.
The Nuggets are known as the Powder Blues now? I don't think thats a good thing. But then again, the same could be said for the UCLA football team.
Anyway, it is amazing that the Nuggets are as good as they are, and won't make the playoffs. Expect major changes.
As a Lakers fan, I have to say that I am worried about my team right now. They have not been playing good basketball for the past week or so. Team after team (and to be more specific, point guard after point guard) have been carving up the perimeter defense. Lakers won't win the title without a healthy Bynum, contributing on defense and rebounding.
Another way to look at the West: last year, along with the Spurs, the Mavs and the Suns were considered the favorites to win the West and win the title. This year, they're being treated, rightly, I think, as also-rans. If held today, the Lakers would have moved from the 7th seed to the 1st, and the Mavs from the first seed to the 7th. Houston from 5th to 2nd, Phoenix from 2nd to 6th. And the Hornets!?!
. Lakers won't win the title without a healthy Bynum, contributing on defense and rebounding.
They'll be fine without Bynum, especially if they get Ariza (or whatever) back.
right, I would argue that Cleveland (twice) and the Nuggs belong in the list of good, if not elite, teams. But it's still a very nice stretch of schedule for them. They could go 21 straight wins followed by 5 straight losses (LAL, BOS, @NO, @GS, @PHX), which would actually put them way back in the pack in the West...
I'm actually more impressed by the streak of 10 straight wins by >10 pts, that's very hard to do no matter what your schedule is..
They could go 21 straight wins followed by 5 straight losses (LAL, BOS, @NO, @GS, @PHX), which would actually put them way back in the pack in the West...
The next 2 weeks will be critical in determining whether the Rockets can make it out of the 1st round in the playoffs.
[i]They'll be fine without Bynum, especially if they get Ariza (or whatever) back.[/i]
Oh they'll be fine without either. But, by "fine" I mean advancing to the second round, and maybe the conference championship. But, Bynum was becoming a dominant defender before he got injured, and a rebounding machine. As much as I love Gasol, he is neither of those things.
And besides, it looks like Bynum will be back before Ariza. Sad too, because Ariza was playing wonderfully.
Interesting comparing the rise and fall of Dallas and the Lakers, and of Phoenix and Houston.
And the Hornets!?!
From 10th to 5th. In the opposite direction - Denver from 6th to 9th.
SAS, Utah, and GS stay in the same position.
But of course, there's still a lot of the regular season to go.
"Anyway, it is amazing that the Nuggets are as good as they are, and won't make the playoffs. Expect major changes."
I don't think so. (Or at least I hope not.) Nene has been out all season, and they're a team with title-chasing possibilities with him on the court.
Unless Kroenke gets cold feet, I think they'll try to hold the team together another year. Given that they've had to play Kenyon Martin and Anthony Carter big minutes this year due to injuries, I think 49 wins will be a good season. Add Nene and a PG who can knock down the open jumper, and I like their chances.
And if 49 or 50 wins ain't good enough this year, well, all you can do is curse Nene's testicle.
Am I the only one who thinks the Lakers aren't getting past the 2nd round? I just haven't been impressed when they play good teams. It always seems like the more they struggle, the more Kobe takes over, the less contribution they get from the rest of the team, the more they struggle, etc... While Kobe can score, he's not efficient enough to successfully dominate games against good teams (unlike LeBron, who scores at will in 4th quarters and overtimes). I have no stats/facts to back this up, just an impression. Am I wrong?
Of course, given the parity in the West, the conference champ may be more beaten than the eventually democratic presidential nominee. Which leads to the stupid question, who is the Mark Penn of the Western Conference?
The Nugget's problem is not entirely due to Nene's injury, even though he had started playing very well at the end of last year. The problem is defense, despite having one of the best center defenders in the league, and a guard in Iverson that used to at least be a vicious defender. Yeah, Kenyon has had to play alot of minutes, but its not like he is a horrible unathletic defender.
And with your payroll, I doubt seriously you will be adding more players. At least significant players. The Nuggs made their play for a championship with the Iverson trade, and it hasnt paid off. I expect Karl to get fired for missing the playoffs this year.
Also, its interesting to speculate that the West will be even MORE difficult next year. Why? The Clippers would have been serious contenders this year with a healthy Brand and Livingston; they would at least be in the mix for the 8th spot. The rising teams are young (Hornets, Lakers, Jazz), and the older teams are still very good (Spurs, Suns, Mavs). Golden State will be very good. Oh, and of course, lets not forget Portland, and possibly Seattle. A killer conference.
"Am I the only one who thinks the Lakers aren't getting past the 2nd round?"
If Bynum doesn't pull a Willis Reed, I tend to agree with you. (Or at least I don't think they're serious title contenders if Bynum isn't back in the flow.)
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San Antonio is the team I can't figure. They've nicely loaded up for another run with Kurt Thomas. But man, they look old 'n' slow this year. I mean, they looked old 'n' slow last year, but this year they really look old 'n' slow.
I could see them winning it all, but if the Nuggets can sneak into the playoffs, I really want the Spurs in the first round. I think they'd have a viable shot at running them off the court.
But Denver defense (6th best in the league) is clearly better than the offense (only 11th best). You'd think that a team with Anthony, Iverson and some good role players should do better than that offensively.
Ariza is the key to the Lakers success? Seriously?
I mean, dude plays good defense, and can finish on the break, but otherwise, he is what is is, a role player who will not greatly effect the Lakers chances. Luke Walton is just as good as Ariza by most measures, much better than him on offense, which is the Lakers MO.
Bynum ain't coming back in any shape to be a big help.
Petey, I'm with you about San Antonio. I think they might've finally reached the stage where they're too old/slow (although I thought they were getting close to that last year, too). I think they're finally showing some cracks at the defensive end and Bowen may finally be too much of an offensive liability to be worthwhile.. A matchup with Denver would be fun (although I think Denver is fun on their own). That said, GS or Phoenix are more likely and would also present a nice contrast (I really don't think SA could run with the Warriors for 4 of 7).
"The Nugget's problem is not entirely due to Nene's injury ... The problem is defense"
Of course, the Nuggets this year have one of the better defenses in the association once you correct for pace.
The problem this year has been offense. With a lineup of Carter, Camby, and Martin surrounding AI and 'Melo, the Powder Blues have no shooters to make teams play for doubling AI and 'Melo.
If you're not pace adjusting your offensive and defensive readings, you have little clue of what's actually going on out there.
"Yeah, Kenyon has had to play alot of minutes, but its not like he is a horrible unathletic defender."
Kenyon really is horribly unathletic at this point. He can still run and jump, but he can't move laterally anymore. And with the kind of junky defenses the Nuggets like to play, you need your interior defenders to be able to move laterally.
I've enjoyed watching Kenyon this year. He's a smart and tough player, and he's really getting the most out of what's left in his body. But he's a 15 MPG player on an elite team, not a 35 MPG player.
Nene gives them an ability to guard the Timmy's and Amare's of the world without doubling to free up the 3 point shooters, and he also gives them an interior help defender to get into position to shut off penetration ala Varejao.
Not to mention the post offense and incredibly valuable cutting to the basket off of Iverson and Anthony double-teams that Nene gives them at the other end of the court.
He's really the difference between them being a 49 win team and a 56 win team.
I can't quote statistics at you, but there is no way that denver is 6th best defensively in the league. They just do not play quality defense. They may get blocks and steals, but they allow teams to do basically whatever they want offensively.
As for San Antonio, I just can't write them off. They still have three amazing players, and udoka seems to be stepping into Bowen's defensive shoes.
As for the Lakers, I think they are the only team that can match up with both the big defensive teams (Spurs, Mavs), and the smaller, quicker teams (Warriors, Utah). Again, assuming a healthy Bynum, which I think is most likely. I am not even close to certain that they can beat Detroit or Boston though, and isnt that odd. The West is tougher than ever, but not guaranteed to beat the East.
Well, I don't know what they are really doing defensively, but believe me, it's working better than what they are doing offensively.
Denver really does have the 6th best defense, measured by points allowed per 100 possessions (which adjusts for pace).
http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2008/index.htm
They have the 11th best offense.
"Am I the only one who thinks the Lakers aren't getting past the 2nd round?"
Probably not, but those people are wrong. The Lakers have been sloppy recently, and their defense worries me a bit. But Pau is more or less perfect for the triangle. That guy's a nightmare on a good team. It never occurred to me that he could be this good on the Lakers.
Ariza is the key to the Lakers success? Seriously?
The Lakers' problem is their defense. You can clog the middle (Bynum) or seal the perimeter (Ariza). They have enough length in the front that they ought to be able to overcome the loss of Bynum. The problem with Bynum is that it displaces Pau, and I don't know that you want to mess around with something that has worked pretty well at this point in the season.
Oh, Im aware of the Defensive efficiency statistics. The problem is that the same stats show the Lakers as the 5th best team. However, since I watch every Lakers game, I know that they are not currently the 5th best defensive team. At times this year, mostly towards the early parts of the season, when Bynum began to find his rhythm, the Lakers have been very good defensively. But, I know that when push comes to shove (in the playoffs) that they can be exploited defensively, especially by good PGs. Their defensive mindset is hit or miss. I see the same with the Nuggets. Most of their players do not get their sense of NBA worth through playing tough defense. And when it comes to the playoffs, teams with efficient offensive systems (Lakers, Spurs, Utah) and athletic offensive teams (Warriors, the Suns of yesteryear) will have their way with the Nuggets defense. And, I worry, with the Lakers.
Why are they still your powder blues? I thought you only started following them because your 76ers were so bad. Well your 76ers are a playoff-bound team now. Why not switch allegiances back? This Carmelo-AI combination is clearly a failure.
I just love the way people write off the San Antonio Spurs. Mr. Yglesias wrote them off in January and since then they have moved into contention for the best record in the West. Never a good idea to write off the reigning champs.
Oh, Im aware of the Defensive efficiency statistics. The problem is that the same stats show the Lakers as the 5th best team. However, since I watch every Lakers game, I know that they are not currently the 5th best defensive team.
This statement is deeply ironic to me. Of course, it's entirely possible that a team that has performed well defensively over the course of the season may have weaknesses that could be exploited likely offseason opponents.... but defensive/offensive efficiency is one of the hardest to argue with stats in professional sports. If you have a good defensive efficiency, it means you've played good defense. The only other variables tend to be smaller effects like: if the offense stinks and you turn over the ball a lot or miss lots of shots the other team will have more fast break opportunities that may make your defense look bad unfairly.
Getting past the 2nd round in the West this year is a pretty respectable accomplishment. But unless the Lakers face the Spurs in a 2-3 seed matchup, I think the Lakers will have the edge over their opponent.
"Well, I don't know what they are really doing defensively, but believe me, it's working better than what they are doing offensively."
Dude. I've watched every minute of every Nuggets game this year, (with the exception of a couple of quarters lost to League Pass glitches.)
When their starting five is on the floor, their offense is rather pathetic if you can keep them from getting out on the break.
Almost every team in the league doubles both AI and 'Melo and dares the other three players on the court to beat them. Considering that the other three on the court are Anthony Carter, Marcus Camby, and Kenyon Martin, it's a smart dare.
One illustration of what the double teams open up can be seen by the 40 point games this season by Linas Kleiza and J.R. Smith, both of whom are rather limited players at this point in their careers.
I've been pleasantly surprised by their defensive ability this year, which is why I'm not on the Fire George Karl! bandwagon. It's their offense which hasn't been reliable, despite the gaudy PPG stats. If you can't make teams consistently pay for double teaming, you're wasting the offensive talents of AI and 'Melo.
Double Kobe, and Sasha or Fish is going to end up with an open 3 or Gasol is going to get a high percentage dump in. Double AI and 'Melo, and you're going to get a Marcus Camby 20ft set shot.
"Why are they still your powder blues? I thought you only started following them because your 76ers were so bad. Well your 76ers are a playoff-bound team now. Why not switch allegiances back? This Carmelo-AI combination is clearly a failure."
I watched the second half of the Sixers beating the Pistons last night, if it makes you feel any better. I'm still fond of Dalembert, Iguodala, and Sweet Lou.
But my allegiance is with whatever team Bubbachuck is playing for until he hangs it up. Only at that point do I revert to full Sixers fandom. The always slimy Ed Snider forced me to choose between Iverson and the Sixers. So I chose.
I started following the Powder Blues because that's the jersey Iverson is wearing. Win/loss has nothing to do with it.
"To win twenty games in today's NBA is no joke (there are a lot of very good teams, espcially in the Rockets' own Western Conference), but...If you take a group of hard-working (even if not spectacularly skilled) players and throw in an unselfish superstar, it is--surprise, surprise--not all that difficult to win games."
Huh?
(Hard to disagree with the first part of Chotiner's analysis, but easy to disagree with the second.)
I agree with the gist of Petey's analysis of the Nuggets. You need good role players to make a good offense - a couple or 3 great players won't do it. But still, you'd think the Nuggets would have a bit better offense when they have two of the very best offensive players. If you double Kobe, he gives it to Derek Fisher or Luke. If you double AI, he gives it to Melo. Melo's a lot better than Fisher or Luke.
I am curious to know how teams stack up in terms of points in the paint. Anybody know if a website has that particular statistic? I wonder how many of Denver's points come from easy buckets instead of jumpers.
Fact is, to anyone who has watched the NBA seriously this year, the Celtics are the class of the league, and are playing the best ball in the league right now, including even the Rockets.
The West is tight, but in the end the Celtics will beat whomever wins the West.
As to those who say the Celtics have no depth, those folks ain't paying attention. Fact is, the Celtics probably have the VERY BEST bench in the league. Not only do they now have a Top 3 back-up PG in Sam Cassel (and a proven playoff assassin), and PJ Brown - but their bench of Posey, House, Big Baby Davis, Leon Powe, & Tony Allen is tough and active and plays sick D and can score.
Too true LWJWTTD, the only team I can see beating the C's are the Cavs, and even then only if LeBron undergoes full spontaneous combustion. They're much better than any team in the west (assuming the big 3 don't break down) and they may have had the best bench in the league even before they acquired Sam Cassell and PJ Brown (Eddie House, Powe, and Big Baby were particularly impressive. Posey is nice on the defensive end).
My main concern for the playoff is that Cassell might get too many big minutes and shake Rondo's confidence, but I don't think that's going to happen. My secondary concern is that Doc would revert to his coaching form of last year, but as long as Scalabrine isn't seeing any court time in the playoffs, I think they'll be ok.
The West is tight, but in the end the Celtics will beat whomever wins the West.
I don't like their chances against whomever comes out of the West. Seven games is a long time for old legs. Maybe against San Antonio.
The West is tight, but in the end the Celtics will beat whomever wins the West.
I don't like their chances against whomever comes out of the West.
Really? Both their games against the Lakers were over before the 4th quarter (pre-Gasol, but Bynum was healthy), they beat the Spurs and Mavs without Garnett, they handled the Rockets (at home), and Utah (at home). Except for a bad three game stretch when Garnett was coming back from injury (@Den, @GS, @Phx), they haven't lost to anyone in the West. If they make the finals, I wouldn't bet against a team that's 20-3 vs the West (although I guess we'll know better after @Dal, @SA, @Hou, @NO. Although I don't know what you could expect of any team finishing a stretch of 6 games in 9 days with those games. One of the most ridiculous series of games I've ever seen.
you're almost certainly overestimating how good the celtics are, and ignoring how insanely tough the west is right now (which may be what gets the celtics or the pistons over the hump in the finals). garnett, allen, and pierce may be the only lead players in a long time who don't find the finals (and earlier going) harder than the regular season, but i doubt it. (as for cassell, please, that was all so many years ago.)
Comments closed March 27, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
That's John Hollinger, not Isaac Chotiner.
Posted by RICKM | March 13, 2008 3:30 PM