McCain's Meanderings

Brendan Nyhan notes that if you use the Keith-Poole methodology for congressional ideology you get the conclusion that John McCain has the most inconsistent record of anyone in the Senate. They write in Congress and Ideology that their model has the least predictive power when it comes to McCain:

John McCain (R-AZ), normally one of the very most conservative members of the Senate, has been the worst fitting member of the Senate in each of his eight Senates, most notably the 103rd (2001-02), where he frequently voted with the Democrats, perhaps in pique over losing the race for the presidential nomination in 2000. [...] John McCain (R-AZ) started as a conservative, became a moderate after losing the Republican nomination to George Bush in 2000, and recently reemerged as very conservative.

The positive spin on this is that McCain is a "maverick." Looked at in a less adoring light, it's just very hard to see any underlying principles about domestic policy running through McCain's career.

Comments

we could call it pragmatism, and i'd be OK with a pragmatist - but not one whose first instinct is More War!

Posted by cleek | March 12, 2008 12:42 PM

But the media won't allow anything but "maverick" to go through. See Atrios' quote from Tucker.

Posted by John McCain: More of the Same | March 12, 2008 1:04 PM

He sounds a lot more like the average voter than the other politicians. Most people don't give a crap about ideology and focus on individual issues. It's why the democratic and republican parties are so schizophrenic.

Posted by Helter | March 12, 2008 1:05 PM

But there's a critical difference between day-to-day or week-to-week switching (which could depend on the particular issues and be symptomatic of a non-ideological pragmatism or just to having an ideology that isn't accounted for in the schema) vs. year-to-year switching (which can hardly be accounted for by anything but genuine flip-flopping, unless you believe that different ideologies are appropriate for different objective circumstances). It sounds like McCain's record is in the latter category.

Posted by knzn | March 12, 2008 1:47 PM

Yeah, if the system is predictive of McCain's voting patters in the 3 distinct periods of his career, then he's just like every other pol with a bad temper.

But he was a 'maverick' in 2000 when he was a solid conservative. So it's not the voting record that the press keys in on. Rather, it's his willingness to voice disagreement with the establishment (even though he votes with them). This has pissed off the establishment but given him the maverick image.

Posted by mpowell | March 12, 2008 2:19 PM

This is the kind of thing that could be good if it represented an independence from blind ideology. But to the degree it reflects the fact that he doesn't let go of grudges, it is a pretty big negative. We don't really need a foreign policy based on who the president is offended by. (Or perhaps we don't need that again).

Posted by Lon | March 12, 2008 2:51 PM

"Looked at in a less adoring light, it's just very hard to see any underlying principles about domestic policy running through McCain's career."

I think the usual argument goes something like this: in 2001-2 the Republican Party left McCain (not he leaving them). Fortunately for them in 2002-2008, the Republican Party came back.

Posted by della Rovere | March 12, 2008 3:37 PM

Here's a campaign meme for you: "John McCain doesn't know who he is."

Posted by bobbo | March 12, 2008 4:40 PM

Rosenthal-Poole methodology, not Keith-Poole methodology.

Posted by quant | March 13, 2008 1:06 AM

Funny: in illo tempore, the exact same thing was said about Burke - that he was inconsistent, unpredictable and opportunistic.

McCain has the right understanding of conservatism: discrimination in terms of circumstances trumps consistency in terms of principle and logic.

Posted by as | March 14, 2008 8:27 AM