On a Roll

I hope the current winning streaks by the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets will throw the panicky trades of Dallas and Phoenix into some relief. Both the Mavs and the Suns seemed to have taken the attitude that if LA was going to make a blockbuster deal that improved the team, that, damnit, they had to make blockbuster deals of their own without giving adequate consideration to whether or not the deals were helping. Meanwhile, other West teams who chose to just tweak and improve are in good shape.

Maybe the Lakers will win in the end, especially if Bynum comes back at full strength. And if they do, they do. It's hard to compete when a good team gets to add a player as good as Gasol without giving anything up. But flailing is not the answer.

Comments

For irony purposes, my current hope is that Dallas will miss the playoffs while New Jersey makes it. However, I think Phoenix is a much greater risk to actually fall out of the top 8.

Posted by right | March 7, 2008 5:49 PM

One thing we're seeing is just how important team chemistry is and how dependent performance is on the entire team context. Which is a lesson for those who want to draw too many conclusions from individual stats alone. Look how badly losing Shawn Marion seems to be hurting Phoenix...but it's not really helping Miami that much.

Posted by mq | March 7, 2008 5:54 PM

i'm just going to note, as i have in a couple of other recent threads, that the spurs did exactly what you would expect from a stable, winning organization: they identified a need consistent with their general style of play - an additional big body role player oriented to defense and rebouding who doesn't need any shots - and then went and found the perfect specimen of such a player in kurt thomas.

the orientation of thomas took all of 3 games, the style of play is completely unaffected, and (as i noted yesterday) after a season of complete indecision as to the likely winner, i am suddenly seeing another spurs title run....

Posted by howard | March 7, 2008 5:56 PM

I wonder if Steve Kerr will try to pull an Isaiah and coach the team himself. He has an owner in Sarver who's almost as crazy as Dolan, so it might work. If he doesn't, he's probably going to be getting chased out of town soon.

Posted by Mike | March 7, 2008 6:05 PM

mq, I don't think the loss of Shawn Marion is indicative of the importance of "chemistry" as opposed to "individual stats." Marion has way, way, way better individual stats than Shaquille O'Neal. I also happen to think he clearly fit better in the Suns sytem, as far as on-court chemistry. I guess the off-court chemistry wasn't so great.

Posted by too many steves | March 7, 2008 6:09 PM

As a Celtics fan, the only two teams that scare me are Detroit and San Antonio. I don't see the Lakers getting it done.

Posted by me | March 7, 2008 6:19 PM

I thought both the Phoenix and Dallas trades were idiotic. It was painful to listen to the so-called experts rave about how the leadership qualities of Shaq and Kidd and other such nonsense.

As a Mavericks fan, I hope Mark Cuban sells the team already - what a dumbass clown.

Posted by blah | March 7, 2008 6:32 PM

For irony purposes, my current hope is that Dallas will miss the playoffs while New Jersey makes it.

Me too. But don't see it - from either end. Dallas isn't playing badly. They lost close games on the road to the division leaders, and they lost last night without Dirk. I don't think that says that they'll miss the playoffs, even in the West. (And NJ is playing horribly, as could be expected.)

It's way too early to be making predictions about the playoffs. We've got a quarter of the season to go, year. I don't think you can say much now.

The one interesting point is how Houston has kept winning despite Yao's absence. I don't expect it to continue, but Henry Abbott posted an interestin email from a stat geek who claimed that Yao hadn't actually been playing that well this season (on an adjusted +/- basis) and that his minutes are now going to players that had been playing better, such as Scola and Landry. Still, with T-Mac's history of choking, I don't see them winning a round, even if they get home court in the 1st round.

Posted by Al | March 7, 2008 6:32 PM

The collusive giveaway of Gasol to LAL indeed threw everything into a tizzy, but the Kidd trade was actually a good one, although in the short run it's failed to patch over locker room troubles and on-court chemistry problems that might derive from players blocking out Avery Johnson, at long last, and having no on-court leadership as well as a meddlesome owner who fails to project confidence.

Phoenix definitely needs a new coach. Kerr's trade could kill him - it was too risky, and Marion could have fetched a basket of players of smaller stature who could have helped. But D'Antoni doesn't know how to be flexibile or extend his rotation beyond 7 players. Meanwhile, Nash looks like he's slowing down, and may never get it back.

Los Angeles looks very good, but Gasol is a very weak defender, and Bynum may not return from his injury fully intact this year. Other than Fisher and Kobe, admittedly tremendously important players, they depend on a gaggle of good, wholly untested players, including Bynum. Can we expect Sasha Vujacic to keep hitting threes in the pressure-cooker of the playoffs? Remember, he's essentially Beno Udrih - same position, same nationality, were drafted one spot away in the same year. Meanwhile, Paul Gasol and Lamar Odom are known for playoff meltdowns. Still, they have Phil Jackson...

Houston is playing tremendous ball, and will get out of the first round, I think. Too much talent to cover Yao's absence, but likely the second round is their exit.

New Orleans and Utah might wind up knocking off the Lakers. Both are very good and have players to torment LAL's big weakness - PG. And I mean utterly torment. I can imagine Chris Paul in that series, but unfortunately NOH has sub-playoff performers, as well, like Peja.

And then San Antonio. Well, they have enough old fogeys to cover for gaps in fogeyness. Meaning if someone falls off, someone else will step in. Duncan's been slacking off lately a bit, and Parker's been picking it up a little after his injury, and the Kurt Thomas trade and Damon Stoudamire signing can only help, but who this comes down to, I think, is Manu Ginobili. It's looking like 2005 for him again this year, when behind Dwyane Wade, he was the best player in the entire postseason. If he keeps this up, I don't see anybody in the West beating them.

We'll see.

Posted by Eric | March 7, 2008 6:33 PM

"As a Celtics fan, the only two teams that scare me are Detroit and San Antonio. I don't see the Lakers getting it done."

you can let go of your fear of detroit--without a frontline that can play with the celtics (which they haven't got and, now, can't get), they haven't a prayer against the celtics. consider rebounds in their last meeting: rasheed, 4; perkins, 20; or team shooting percentage: pistons 36%, celtics 46%. san antonio--now that's a different story. i am taking solace from the fact that the celtics won the only time this year they played the spurs, but, yes, the spurs are a very good team, and they make me nervous, but i should think that the spurs should also be nervous about the celtics.

Posted by pilgrimtraveller | March 7, 2008 6:35 PM

...you can let go of your fear of detroit--without a frontline that can play with the celtics (which they haven't got and, now, can't get), they haven't a prayer against the celtics.

I dunno. I certainly think the Celtics might get by Detroit in the post season. And I think it will likely be a good series. But I somehow doubt the Detroit team we saw the other night will be the same one the Celtics meet in May.

Posted by me | March 7, 2008 6:40 PM

However, I think Phoenix is a much greater risk to actually fall out of the top 8.

I know; just crazy. This year's lesson might be that Jimmy Buss was right: any drunk on barstool would be as good a GM as many of those currently employed. (NB: At least until he started coming around with vehemence this year, the drafting of Bynum was laid at Jimmy Buss's feet.)

I hated the Shaq trade for PHX and the Kidd trade for Dallas. I'm no longer sure I was right about Kidd, but I'm certainly not sure I was wrong.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | March 7, 2008 7:44 PM

"I dunno. I certainly think the Celtics might get by Detroit in the post season."

Pretend you are a GM picking players from the current rosters of the Pistons and the Celtics, whom do you pick for your starting five? First pick is an inarguable no-brainer: Garnett. Second pick is tougher, maybe you pick Billups, or maybe you pick Pierce. Say you agree with me and you pick Pierce second, well then you'd pick Billups third. If you happened to have picked Billups second, there's no question you pick Pierce third. Who's next? Ray Allen or Rip Hamilton, a wash. McDyess or Perkins? McDyess has the better season stats, but Perkins has been coming on, while McDyess has been a non-entity in the last two Pistons' losses against the Celtics.

Totals? Clear advantage: two positions for the Celtics, one position for the Pistons. One position is a wash, the remaining position tends to favor the Celtics. Bench is no question: Celtics.

Series: Celtics

Posted by pilgrimtraveller | March 7, 2008 8:20 PM

detroit is like the spurs in a bad way -- sometimes, they're just not that interested. the spurs have that problem too, but it generally only loses them 2 games a series. yes, if wallace shows up, detroit could be fearsome. but the odds of that seem slim. what's really different this year? so i can see the celtics getting by detroit. but i'm not so sure we should write off the cavs so soon. LBJ really is all that, and now he's got some marginally better help.

as for the west, it's hard to see why two of the top teams decided to roll the dice despite having had tremendous success in preceding years. yes, the lakers got gasol. but that doesn't automatically mean the lakers throttle everyone in the playoffs where things tighten up. i agree that utah or the hornets or houston could beat the lakers. not saying i'd put money on it, but don't think any of those would be a ridiculous upset.

Posted by dj superflat | March 7, 2008 9:07 PM

Go Warriors. We would be the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Fear the Beard!!!

Posted by adlsad | March 7, 2008 9:08 PM

I'm totally eating crow re: the Spurs. I thought when they were struggling this was finally the year their age caught up with them a bit. I mean, I knew Ginobili was awesome and has been underappreciated by American basketball fans for years, but I had no idea he could take his game to the level he has the past few weeks - it has really been awesome to watch. Van Gundy was right when he said he's the second best 2 in the league right now behind Kobe. If he keeps it up (1)the Spurs will probably take the title, and (2) things suddenly look a lot worse the USA team this summer.

Also, since someone brought it up - is there any player who is more frustrating to watch in the aggregate than Rasheed Wallace? When he feels inclined to go into the post and shoot turnaround jumpers, he absolutely tortures people and nobody in the world can guard him. His release on the turnaround is about 11 feet in the air and he has probably the softest touch of NBA big man since McAdoo. Why, on a team with Billups/Prince/Hamilton, does he feel compelled to limit his offensive game to long jumpshots and 3s? It's enough to want to pull your hair out, and I don't even like the Pistons.

Posted by haterade | March 7, 2008 9:28 PM

As someone who has watched most of every Celtic game this year, I am pretty confident that they will beat the Pistons. Perkins and Rondo are good players, believe it or not. And I can't wait to watch my first in-person testicle-dance.

I'm actually more scared of the Cavs, as the real Superman plays for them, but I'm still predicting a Celts/Lakers final.

Posted by Andruw | March 7, 2008 9:32 PM

Which one do you think gives David Stern a bigger chubby? Lakers vs. Celtics in the finals, or Lakers vs. Lebron?

Just don't let it be Spurs vs. Pistons. We've all seen that movie.

Posted by too many steves | March 7, 2008 9:41 PM

the stats on Yao's season are misleading - during the first half of the season, no one on the team could hit an open shot. that all changed when Adelman broke up the Battier/Hayes front line, benched James, and gave Scola and Landry more minutes. Landry played in maybe two games during the first half of the season, so hopefully he won't be hitting the wall at the end of the season.

Posted by paperpusher | March 8, 2008 8:02 AM

The thing about this recent run of 15 of 16 for the Spurs is they haven't really been playing all that well. There is certainly another gear for them. Ginobili has been at his best, but Parker is still not anywhere close to his top form. Their record the last month or more is more an indication of a soft spot in the scheduling.

I think the team in the west that worries me the most is Utah. They got exactly what they needed in Korver, and got him early enough in the season that the transition is seamless.

I don't think there is a series in the West in which a team can be more than a 2-1 favorite, unless by some miracle the Nuggets make it in, at which point they are pretty much a lock to lose in the first round.

Posted by Curtis | March 8, 2008 8:51 AM